China and oil

[welsh]

So what is the connection between China and oil- perhaps that China need the oil to maintain its economic development, but we might be reaching Peak Oil?

This sounds like Fallout to me.

Gas Pump Pain - With China Coming on Strong
By Shepherd Bliss
Energy Bulletin

Friday 26 August 2005

Gasoline prices continue to soar, as Americans complain more. Beneath this trend is even worse news not being fully reported. Prices have gone up before, like during the oil crises of the 1970s. This time they will not cycle back down significantly, but will continue to ascend beyond $3 a gallon toward Europe's more than $5 a gallon.

$5 a gallon! Holy Fuck!

Prices for crude oil approach $70 a barrel, which is 40% higher than a year ago. Such dramatic increases impact not only gasoline prices, but also the prices of food and other goods dependent upon transportation and the global economy. The rising price of gasoline will impact many aspects of our lives. Agribusiness is dependent upon oil for fertilizers, pesticides, tractors, and others aspects of food production and distribution.

But then gas prices have been low considering cost of living increases and rate of inflation.

Wal-Mart, for example, has blamed its slumping sales and weak future outlook on rising fuel prices. The world's largest retailer has a vast truck fleet to move freight around the country and the world to supply its stores. Many of its cheap products are imported, especially from China and other Asia countries with their cheap labor. Getting those goods across the globe to America will become increasingly expensive as shipping cost continue to ascend. "I worry about the effect of high oil prices," Wal-Mart CEO Leo Scott admitted Aug. 18 on CNN.

Really? I worry about Walmart's low prices, the fact that it pays its employees dirt wages, and destroys local smaller businesses. So, Scott, hey I'm crying for ya, man.

Gasoline station owners are also being hit hard by mounting prices, in worse places than their pocketbooks. As prices mount, so do thefts and violence. "Gasoline theft cost retailers nationwide $237 million in 2004-more than twice the $112 million loss in 2003," according to an Aug. 23 Associated Press story.

Gasoline station owner Husain Caddi died Aug. 19 in Montgomery, Alabama, according to the AP story, "after being run over by a driver who police believe wasn't going to pay for $52 worth of fuel. Police are searching for the driver of the Jeep-style SUV." AP adds, "With gasoline prices soaring, industry experts predict the number of drive-offs-and violence-will increase."

Expect SUV drivers to protest high prices at the gas pump. Damn it, it's a constitutional right to have an SUV and affordable gas? If it weren't, then why did the government give all those tax incentives to SUV owners.

The mainstream media has published many articles on oil recently, But until August it has tended to ignore the growing number of geologists and oil experts predicting the imminent arrival Peak Oil - the mid-point of petroleum supplies, which will be followed by a gradual decline while the global trend toward increased consumption continues.

London's authoritative "Financial Times" published an article Aug. 16 entitled "World Is Heading for Oil Price Shock." A cover story in "The New York Times Magazine" entitled "The Breaking Point" by Peter Maass followed on Aug. 21. Maass visited the world's largest oil-producing country, Saudia Arabia, and interviewed many people, including Sada al-Husseine. After talking to the recently top executive of the state-owned Aramco Oil Company, he noted, "The message he delivered was clear: the world is heading for an oil shortage."

What to Do?{/quote]

Canned food and shotguns for the short term. For the long term, solar panels and arable land for your domestic needs.

These apparent problems are symptoms and indicators of a deeper problem-Peak Oil. When consumers are hit by rising gasoline prices, they become the talk of the day. Some blame the oil industry for those rising costs. Indeed, they bear some responsibility. Oil companies have posted their greatest profits ever this year.

And this is ironic considering we have an "oil executive' in public office.

[qoute]
However, events such as rising gas prices, growing violence at gas stations, Wal-Mart's rising prices, the mounting China-US conflict, and America's inability to win in Iraq are dots that need to be connected to reveal a larger picture. Central to that context is the reality that the demand for oil and the multiple products that are made from it is increasing at the same time that its supply is diminishing. That will lead to mounting strife to control what oil does remain.

So what to do in such a bleak moment? Supporting the expansion of truly local economies that are not based on globalization is essential. This is certainly not the time to be building more roads or Big Box stores. Prioritizing the increase of diverse local agriculture is important. Studies reveal that the average food in America travels 1500 miles from field to fork. Using less fossil-fuel energy is important, as is buying vehicles, such as hybrids, that use less gasoline. Some places can get more energy from solar and wind resources.

I go with this notion of alternative foods, but whether alternative agriculture would work demands more careful consideration. Is it affordable to grow food locally?

Taking individual responsibility is important, but it is not sufficient alone. The US military budget is currently larger than those of all the other nations in the world combined. Though America has the most mighty military in the world, it is not winning in Iraq or creating many allies elsewhere in the world. On the national level, one of the most important things to do would be to re-direct some of the money going into the military- much of which is used to protect and expand our global oil extraction - toward energy, education, health care and other domestic programs.

I agree with that.

China - The Sleeping Giant Awakens

The demands for gasoline and oil are increasing, as supplies are diminishing. Rapidly industrializing Asian countries- especially China and India-are demanding more oil to fuel their expanding economies. The headline for a Aug. 24 AP stories notes, "Oil Couild Fuel US, China Tiff."

China has been integrating itself more into the global capitalist economy. A Chinese oil company, CNOOC, bid more money than Chevron for a California oil company, Unocal, but the US Congress interfered and the cheaper bid by the American company, Chevron, was accepted. So China has been turning elsewhere to satisfy its oil thirst. China's biggest state-owned oil company, China National Petroleum Corporation, bid $4.18 billion on Aug. 22 to buy a Canadian oil company.

China is also making unprecedented political, economic, and even military alliances. Russia and China engaged in their first-ever join military exercises Aug. 18-25. The war maneuvers highlighted the growing military ties between Moscow and Beijing, which have tended to be rivals. The new US Pacific Fleet commander, based in Pearl Harbor, indicated in an Associated Press story that he has been watching the China-Russia exercises closely and is "very interested." According to Adm. Gary Roughead, "There's a growing sense in our country and military that our future is going to be very heavily tied to Asia."

Realist IR might suggest that nations will attempt to balance against powerful members of the international system. So this could be part of a balancing trend.

"The imperative of maintaining stability and prosperity in the region will be the key to our security and prosperity in the future," the Admiral said. This doctrine was advanced by President Richard Nixon when he re-established relations with China. However, the current administration and many in Congress, in both parties, do not seem to agree. As China seeks to play by capitalist rules and buy corporations, they are blocked by Big Oil and their congressional advocates. Many recent articles in the Wall Street Journal have echoed the Admiral's call for "stability and prosperity" in China and the region, rather than heightening tensions that could lead to armed conflict between the US and China or their surrogates.

But whether the US decides to keep military tensions light, in part depends on China and Russia. Afterall it takes two to tango or war.

China recently has responded more vigorously when the US threatens it with retaliation should it seek to regain the island of Taiwan. The seriousness of the growing conflict between China and the US was underscored by the mid-July release of a Pentagon study on the Chinese military. The US has indicated that it would help defend Taiwan. The July 21 New York Times reported that "in recent days a Chinese general threatened the United States with a nuclear attack if the United States attacked China during a Taiwan crises."

An old threat.

Meanwhile, the US military continues to be beaten back by insurgents in Iraq, further embarrassing itself as the international competition for oil in Iraq and elsewhere heats up. As the US military fails to achieve its quota of recruits and is already spread thin, the administration continues its buildup against Iran and other countries.

China and Russia have formed the Shanghai Cooperation Organization with four former Soviet republics in Central Asia and added Iran, India and Pakistan this year as observers. At its July summit, the organization demanded that Washington set a date for US withdrawal from Central Asia. Its forces have been deployed there since the Sept. 11, 2001, attacks to support operations in neighboring Afghanistan.

ANd thus if central asia goes to China, we can probably see more Chinese economic growth and higher gas prices in the US and Europe.

India and China are also reported in the Aug. 18 Wall Street Journal as forging a new energy tie. "India and China have been engaged in cutthroat competition in recent years for access to some of the world's richest oil and gas deposits," the WSJ article indicates. But they now have a "strategic long term partnership," according to Talmiz Ahmad, a senior official at India's Ministry of Petroleum and Natural Gas in New Delhi.

The US, meanwhile, is also courting India. The Bush Administration announced "a new agreement to give India help for its civilian nuclear program while allowing it to retain nuclear weapons," according to a July 21 New York Time article. This accord is a major change in US policy and international agreements. India has not signed the Nonproliferation Treaty and has had major conflicts with its nuclear neighbor Pakistan, another US ally.

Oh what a tangled web.

 

[Phil the Nuka-Cola Dude]

Ok, heres an idea! How about we all buy a Grease Car conversion kit. Make ALL fat people get mandatory lipo-suction, distill the millions of pounds of fat into grease, and cheap fuel all around!



(This is the kind of shit thats in my head when im high )

*edited for spelling*

 

[Pajari]

Not only does WalMart pay shit wages and no benefits, but (at least around here) they actively encourage their employees to apply for food stamps, medicare, and all manner of government handouts to make up for the fact that they are paid dirt-poor wages. In fact, the state legislature is going to pass a law next session prohibiting businesses from leeching off the state to keep their own overhead low.

Also, agreed on the point that more money should go to education. We went over that issue with a fine-toothed comb in the "how smart are you" thread.

Also, peak oil is the point at which we have reached the maximum oil production and from then on the production will decline until there is no oil left, correct?

 

[welsh]

Pajari- - Correct, kind of. Peak Oil is the point were we have extracted most of the oil that is efficient to export. This is not to say that more oil doesn't exist. Only that that oil is either difficult to get at or expensive to exploit. It's the difference between pulling oil out of a rather stable country like Saudi Arabia, Burnai vs doing things in Sudan, Iraq, Algeria, Libya. And consider these last few countries-

In the past few years- the US has brokered a cease-fire ending a long civil war in Sudan. It has invaded Iraq and thus lifted that country out of sanctions, it has made a deal with Libya in which Libya's WMD program is given up for a lifting of oil sanctions, and there is great interest in ending the war in Algeria (although oil production is largely untouched). Also some regions become more expensive to refine because of their geographic location. Basically, Peak oil means the end of easy oil.

About Walmart- that's fucked up. Smooching off your tax dollars so they keep the salaries down.

Phil- not sure if we can turn fat people into grease, though I guess it's worth a shot. I hear we can turn fat into soap.

 

[Colt]

This could be an option to follow: Anything Into Oil: Technological savvy could turn 600 million tons of turkey guts and other waste into 4 billion barrels of light Texas crude each year

 

[pennyliu123]

Well, you may not know that, our Chinese people suffered a lot in a lack of oil recently...

 

[Phil the Nuka-Cola Dude]

This could be an option to follow: Anything Into Oil: Technological savvy could turn 600 million tons of turkey guts and other waste into 4 billion barrels of light Texas crude each year

Thats fucking awesome!