welsh said:
Akudin said:
During the Cold War US supposedly had ten thousand nuclear missiles with two thousand on standby ready to launch. USSR had two thousand nuclear missiles with 400 on standby ready to launch. At the time China supposedly had 400 uclear missiles with 20 on standby ready to launch. China was the third biggest nuclear pwer in the world.
I am curious about where you get your numbers. From what I recall these are wrong.
Much of the US nuclear deterrent was based on bombers, not ICBMs. In fact the USSR's ICBM numbers outnumbered those of the US.
China's nuclear deterrent was based on mobile launchers and was quite small in comparison.
I don't think that the world will end with a 20 misslile attack wave. Having said that, the worst thing that can happen is for the superpower to think that it can survive a nuclear war.....Conventional war with China, then? Is China an economic giant? Companies like Microsoft and Boeng empower China economically by giving it favored status in exchange for an open door in the China's nascent economic market. So, China appears important on the world stage, at least economically. Militarily, China is a communist state, albeit more adaptable then the former USSR, but its regime is intact, and the relationship of the common Chinese people to Peoples Pepublic Of China is significantly different and more friendly than the same relationship between the Soviet state and its subject. I doubt that PRC will collapse in the face of adversity or for any other reason. PRC's mad rush to make friends is part of their regime's survival strategy, which so far has worked well and is being used as an example by other leaders of the non-aligned states. China is linked closely to Pakistan and it is concerned about Islamist fundamentalism and its influence on its muslim population (uigers etc).
China may not be a superpower yet, but its not a softpower either, or a softpower in terms of an iron fist in a velvet glove. I wouldn't worry about any major economic upheavals either. Chinese goods fill a much needed niche in the global economy.
Silly. In a conflict between two nuclear armed states, conventional wars will probably become nuclear.
The recent downturn in international exchanges across the world reflects China's economic importance in a global economy. Yet China's market is not wholly capitalistic nor is the market representative of market trends. Rather, the market downturn was, from what I understand, a response to the state's plans to control capital gains.
In response to Starseeker-
Dude, when did you become such a China skeptic?
To bad S is not here.
Don't forget that developing a military is a nationalistic project. Not only does the military allow the state broader repressive/despotic control over society but it can be used to unify the society as well- if through the use of force. Militaries are not used against external threats, but serve internal purposes as well.
The problem with militaries is that they are generally expensive to keep and, during economic hard times, can become a liability. Given a regime like China's, economic hard times would mean that workers strike, students protest, businessmen bribe, and soldiers launch coups.
For the west, too much money has been going to China for too long, I think because there is little choice among major industries but to invest in China. It's simply been too big to resist, especially if your competors are going there.
But if China and the west have been peaceful, it has largely been because China has not competed with the West over key industries. While the West might import cheap consumer goods from China, China has not challenged the West with automobiles, computers, high technology, and other goods that the West develops for profit. But inevitably China will want to compete in those markets, and when that happens relations may change as well.
As for Africa- this is called neo-imperialism, or at least neo-mercantilism. China needs resources from primary producers to sustain its economic output. That explains its interest in Africa. Africa, being a continent of highly indebted states- is looking for viable purchasers for its goods. The more competition for its commodities, the better for Africa. Africa's main problem is that the prices of commodities has been falling for the last 40 years while the price of manufactured goods has constantly gone up. Consequently, those economies and the state's that govern those economies, have become very weak. For China, Africa offers the raw materials it needs. Could its army be a way of securing those resources?
Therein may lie an alternative policy. Conditionalities demanded by international lenders have led to some reforms in some countries and even some political transition- Ghana is the ideal example. Theoretically, the west could offer incentives (for instance, subsidies for commodity goods) in exchange for political and economic reforms. Given sufficient investment, one might see other regions open up that now go ignored in the rush to invest in China.
As for China's military- if the economic surge of China runs into road black, the Chinese could always appeal to nationalistic sentiments of the Han. Taiwan might be a cause strong enough to unify the people and give the CCP a new lease on life.
As for China's moral decay- I have Chinese students here who tell me stories on how Chinese society allows its students to cheat on exams. Because its the results that matter, not what those results are supposed to represent. Cheating on exams or papers is endemic and they are often lazy and unmotivated to get ahead. I have been teaching for about ten years, and honestly, the change is disturbing.
And what happens if China has a hard landing? I hate to think of it. My hope is that people will wake up to the danger and start thinking of moving their money elsewhere.
Actually, I don't think I am a sceptic, yet.
I actually chewed someone out on another board for perpetuating the same old attitude as the idiot taxi driver and the passers by. China deserves to do better than this.
Yes, I believe that in their attempt to develop more military and space technology, they are trying to build a nationalistic image of a better China. But the problem as so many famous sinologists have pointed out, isn't that China is trying to develop its military capabilities. The problem is why. I'll get back to this after I've answered all your pts.
And yes, I also agree with your statments on western investments on China. It's pure lunacy. The funny thing is, when you lable this kind of lunatic investment that will never see the light of time in any other place - China, it suddenly gets instant approval. There are several factors contributing to this, and the biggest one is probably the cold war. The lack of information + colonial attitude + oversea Chinese + a country desparate for cash, products and everything else = bottomless pit. I highly recommend a book called "Mr. China" on this topic. He is a investment consultant that used to work with Arthur Anderson in London, but he decided that he will come to China to seek fame and fortune. He teamed up with a big league US investment banker and managed to find $42 million US to invest in China around 92. In 10 years, they were the only who managed to NOT lose house, hearth, and their pants.
3. As for economic relations with the west, it has started to get ugly. The most amusing thing is that Chinese companies are getting a taste of their own medicine. As Chinese companies attempt to march right into some of the more competitive industries in developed countries, they have faced the same thing that western companies have faced when entering China. Patent litigation, anti-dumping litigation, import duties, quality control regulation, and so on. If you understand Chinese, you'll laugh your ass off watching some of the current Chinese news talk shows, with some of the major Chinese consumer products companies crying foul play.
Funnny, I didn't hear you do that when you did it to them? There are a lot of so called david vs goliath stories. There are some using the race card. And there is CCTV, telling people that Chinese people should band together to defeat the foreign devils!
Business is business, and all is fair in love and war. The sooner these kids(companies) learned that - 1. unlike them, the marketing pressures in the international realm is the same for everyone else, so they aren't special, 2. instead trying to cheat by bribing, copying, or flood the market with cheap, poorly made goods, how about making some good products for a change? How about making something unique to China? How about making a decent brand? How about giving a damn to certificates and quality control? Of course, that isn't going to happen anytime soon.
China has been trying to make cars and trucks for years, and some recent purchases of failing European brands are raffling some feathers. Of course, just because they bought a luxury brand doesn't mean they can build a luxury car. A lot of Chinese car brands are starting to out sold foreign brands in Chinese markets, why? Because they are cheaper. You get a sh*tty car for a sh*tty price. The funny thing is that even Chinese themselves resign to the fact that Chinese made cars(or anything else) are sh*tty. Of course, they have been trying to export these things for years, but mostly to African, South East Pacific, and South American countries. There was one guy who got on the news for selling some 6000 cars over 3 years to Germany, but something else happened, and deal fell through. More crying foul ensues.
China has supposely made P3 capable processors by themselves(yeah, I raised my eyebrows too) in the last few years. And they have came up with a China server brand based on its development, but I don't think China has enough IT infrastructure to support something like that yet.
China just came up with a new wireless/cellphone standard. They are using it as a leverage to tell all the new mobile phones/PC wireless companies to convert it to the Chinese standard when introducing products in China. It's suppose to be ALL ChinESE coding and technology. There is suppose to be NO copying of any kind in this new wireless coding format. If this goes through, I can think of a few names that will be pissed.
China has just introduced its own OS/security software/dictionary/translation software combo in Japan, and we'll see how it goes. Before the big MS came in around 97, they were the king in China, with an annual revenue of 700 million RMB. There is a famous stories about how MS took the market from them. From 0 to almost 90% in less than 3 years. Marketing 101.
As you can see, these are some of the core industries that the west depends on. The only thing China hasn't had any progress at all is the bio tech industry which usually take more than 10 or 20 years to properly form. Media is the other obvious one. You can't really expect a country like this to develop some decent content or better media technologies.
Then again, the problem with all of these?
Management. China doesn't have enough half decent managers or leaders to take all of these half decent products to the international stage. The funny thing is that China has adapted to industrializaton too well, because it can pump out more engineers, coders, or any other highly trained specialists than most other countries, except for maybe, India. Actually, I believe that India will become the next balancing superpower in Asia instead of China, simply because it doesn't have a bug up its arse about learning English. But that's another story.
Industrialization has ran its course in China, the next phase will be incorporation. How China will handle this is hard to tell.
4. As for the Taiwan issue, well.., it's way too political. But I do believe in one thing, as long as Taiwan exist as a separate political entity, CCP will have an enemy. If Taiwan was incorporated back into China in any way, war or peace, the whole Asian map will change. The whole Asia will probably be an armed camp with probably 4 sides. India and its neighbors, Japan & other Eastern and South Eastern Pacific countries, China and co., and Russia, with Australia swining back and forth. Alternatively, this may also exaggerate the fissure that runs between north and south China, and a civil war is possible.
5. As for the moral decay, well..., it's inevitable. China has always had a elitist/emperor mentality, esp for the kids that you are teaching. That's why I said what I said. These people won't be leaders or managers. They will just be little idiotic emperors who just do what they are told. The gap is widening between the rich, poor, educated but lazy, educated and motivated, and everything in between. The interesting thing to watch is how will China/CCP solve the problem of its own children? The Chinese mentality will never suffer for that much that long. The emerging middle class will only carry these people for only so long, and since they don't have Confusian morals anyway, they will start to move up and try to take out the competition.
My hope is, and this is just some ramble of a crazy, that all the immigration will begin to have an effect. There are a lot of returning immigrants that aren't happy with the things as they are, and they are trying to change things. Chinese has always been a militaristic society, but the relatively recent peace has made it wanting to sharpen its fangs because it has had nothing else to do. If the ideals about rule of law can influence the ideals about rule of man, then it can change. But it will be hard, and painful. A lot more painful than the 10 years of CR ever was. That's what it comes down to. The distrust. 5000 years can teach someone to value survival over whatever else that's there. The recent rise of diabetes in China is a grand example. Why? Most of the average Chinese citizen has always been poor, so their genes has adapted by consuming sugar wherever, whenever they can find it. Survival of the fittest. But maybe education and food for almost everyone can change that mindset. Maybe.
6. China will have a hard landing, sooner or later. Consolidation will occur. I don't know what CCP plans to do with all the social unrest with the people that lost their jobs. Whether countries like India, UAE, or othre emerging countries with the size or its unique economic opportunerties can take over is another story. I don't know, maybe Canada can get out of its political funk by then and do something. It is certainly in a unique position to do so.
Thoughts?
Interesting news:
China wants detained suspect sent back to Beijing
Feb. 21 2007
CTV
A fugitive bank manager who is accused of siphoning off millions of dollars
from the Bank of China before fleeing the country, was quietly arrested in
Vancouver last week.
Gao Shan, former head of the Bank of China in Harbin, fled China in 2005, and
there has been little word on his location until recently, when Chinese
authorities asked Ottawa to arrest and deport Gao.
The Globe and Mail reports that Gao fled China in 2005 after allegedly
embezzling $150 million. Chinese officials claim the 42-year-old transferred the money
illegally to an account in Canada.
Gao was arrested on Feb. 18, then taken into a detention hearing, The Globe
reports. Police also took Gao's wife, Li Xue, and his 17-year-old daughter into
custody when they raided their North Vancouver home on Feb. 18.
They have both been released, but Hao has remained in custody.
Gao's disappearance in 2005 had sparked an international search, with Chinese
officials reportedly focusing their efforts on the U.K., the U.S. and South
Korea.
However, The Globe reports that statements from the RCMP, which were made
during a detention hearing on Tuesday, reveal that police had been watching Gao for
at least a year.
He was arrested on a warrant that indicated he had misstated his occupation
when he came to Canada to join his wife and daughter who were already living in
Vancouver with permanent residence status.
The immigration board will have to decide whether Gao is a flight risk, or
whether he poses a risk to the public, if released.
Alannah Hatch, the government representative at the hearing, argues he is a
flight risk because he doesn't want to return to China. The government also
considers that Gao and his family are living on the proceeds of crime, Hatch told The
Globe.
The extradition request could put further stress on already tense relations
between Ottawa and Beijing.
China has been expressing concern over several cases of accused criminals who
have fled to Canada.
Chinese officials are infuriated with Ottawa over its failure to deport Lai
Chang-xing, who has been described by the official Xinhua news agency as "China's
most wanted fugitive."
Lai, who is accused of smuggling, fled to Canada in 1999 and has sought refugee
status.
In another case, two Bank of China employees travelled to Vancouver after
allegedly stealing $570 million from a southern Chinese branch in 2001.
In yet another case, Chinese citizen Ang Li flew home in 2002 after his
girlfriend Amanda Zhao was killed in a Vancouver suburb.
While he has been charged with murder after an RCMP probe, Beijing has turned
down requests to send him back.
Ottawa does not have an extradition treaty with Beijing -- chiefly because of
concerns that a suspect could be executed after being deported to China.
Prime Minister Stephen Harper recently criticized China's human rights record,
saying Canada wouldn't sell out "to the almighty dollar."
However, the government has been attempting to rebuild relations with China.
Analysts say the Conservatives are pursuing a strategy in which Harper reserves
the right to criticize Beijing's human-rights record while leaving his economic
ministers to talk business.
