welsh
Junkmaster
So should there be more or less disarmament?
How many times do we need to nuke the world to oblivion?
It would be nice if the US didn't have to nuke Iran. Although they were total pricks in the World Cup.
I think the ref was afraid he'd get a Fatwa on his ass.
Why get rid of your little nuke arsenal when the big nuke arsenals don't disappear?
Don't forget, the nuclear clock has not stopped ticking.
But is this really a good thing?
Of course if China decides to arms race.... that would be pretty crappy. Especially if Taiwan becomes the US's Cuba.
Note fewer missiles also means more vulnerability to a first strike. Nuke deterrence works only if the other side knows that they cannot survive a war even if they launch first.
Is disarmament such a good thing?
How many times do we need to nuke the world to oblivion?
Nuclear disarmament
The fewer the better
Jun 8th 2006
From The Economist print edition
Something the nuclear powers owe the rest of the world
THOUGH not yet a breakthrough, the news from the proliferation front this week was brighter. Javier Solana, the European Union's quasi-foreign minister, flew to Iran with an extraordinary offer. If the mullahs agreed to suspend their nerve-jangling nuclear enrichment and reprocessing, they would be granted not only various economic rewards but their first chance for more than two decades to hold direct talks with America. If they refuse, they may face sanctions in the UN Security Council. For once, the mood music from Washington and Tehran was almost harmonious (see article).
It would be nice if the US didn't have to nuke Iran. Although they were total pricks in the World Cup.
I think the ref was afraid he'd get a Fatwa on his ass.
But making the world safer from nukes is not a job just for the suspected proliferators. The official nuclear powers—America, Russia, Britain, France and China—need to acknowledge something they like to forget: that the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT) was to some extent erected on a fiction.
In return for nobody else joining their club, the five promised to work to get rid of their nuclear weapons, as part of a process of general disarmament. That seems as far off now as it ever was (see article). And the belief among many governments that the five are not holding up their end of the bargain exposes them to charges of hypocrisy, adds to the NPT's woes and makes it harder to encourage the three treaty outsiders—India, Pakistan and Israel—to curb their nuclear arsenals.
Why get rid of your little nuke arsenal when the big nuke arsenals don't disappear?
With the best will in the real world, everyone knew that getting rid of nuclear arms was never going to be easy. What counts for governments who understand this is that the nuclear haves find ways of moving purposefully in the right general direction. As the cold-war negotiations showed, curbing arms races and cutting nuclear tallies (even to numbers far from zero) is in the interests of all, the haves included. It still is, for the same reason that these weapons have been around for so long: the world is an unpredictable place. America and Russia are these days not the post-cold-war chums they once hoped to be. America and China, though conscious of the need to rub along peaceably, suspect each other's intentions, especially over Taiwan. All could be drawn into regional rivalries in the Middle East, South Asia and East Asia if these turn overtly nuclear. The dangers should not be exaggerated. But tighter controls make for a safer world, come what may.
Don't forget, the nuclear clock has not stopped ticking.
What can and can't be done
That means pushing nuclear numbers as low as possible. By 2012 America and Russia have agreed they will deploy no more than 1,700-2,200 strategic warheads each, down two-thirds from the number in 2002, when their agreement was sealed. Yet of the realistic threats facing both countries, including from a still growing Chinese arsenal, there are none that could not readily be deterred by a lot fewer. And if Russia would cut its thousands of tactical nuclear weapons, America could get rid of the few hundred it still keeps. Meanwhile, both have plans to modernise their remaining weapons. It would help avoid any danger of a new arms race if newer warheads meant fewer too.
But is this really a good thing?
If overall nuclear numbers can be driven down further, Britain and France also need to put their weapons on the negotiating table. As for China, it is the most secretive of the official five. In cold-war times it used to say breezily that it would join arms-control talks with the other nuclear powers when America and Russia cut their arsenals by half. When they did, China fell silent. Yet more transparency over its nuclear plans could help draw India and Pakistan into a more stabilising web of constraint in a dangerous neighbourhood.
Of course if China decides to arms race.... that would be pretty crappy. Especially if Taiwan becomes the US's Cuba.
Meanwhile, America's refusal to ratify the Comprehensive Test-Ban Treaty (China has not ratified it either) makes it hard to press India, Pakistan and Israel to do so. A treaty banning the production of fissile material for bombs has been stuck in the UN's Conference on Disarmament for a decade. Though India claims to support such a treaty, its weapons plans clearly count on the impasse continuing. America unwisely missed a chance to make a fiss-ban a condition of its recent proposed controversial deal with India on civilian co-operation.
Tighter stewardship of fewer nuclear weapons and the technologies and materials that go into them will not, on its own, usher in a nuclear-free world. But to most these would be welcome steps that could help turn the recent chain reaction of suspicion and rivalry that is damaging the NPT into one that could improve the security of all. That is surely the least that the official nuclear powers owe the rest.
Note fewer missiles also means more vulnerability to a first strike. Nuke deterrence works only if the other side knows that they cannot survive a war even if they launch first.
Is disarmament such a good thing?