Hubbert and Oil

[Sina]

October 5th, 1903 -- October 11th, 1989

"Our ignorance is not so vast as our failure to use what we know."
M. King Hubbert

-quote-
The late Dr. M. King Hubbert, geophysicist, is well known as a world authority on the estimation of energy resources and on the prediction of their patterns of discovery and depletion.

He was probably the best known geophysicist in the world to the general public because of his startling prediction, first made public in 1949, that the fossil fuel era would be of very short duration. "Energy from Fossil Fuels, Science"


His prediction in 1956 that U.S.oil production would peak in about 1970 and decline thereafter was scoffed at then but his analysis has since proved to be remarkably accurate. See Nuclear Energy and the Fossil Fuels by M. King Hubbert, Chief Consultant (General Geology), Exploration and Production Research Division, Shell Development Company, Publication Number 95, Houston, Texas, June 1956, Presented before the Spring Meeting of the Southern District, American Petroleum Institute, Plaza Hotel, San Antonio, Texas, March 7-8-9, 1956.
-unquote-


Dr. Hubbert (in response to remarks by David Nissen - Exxon): "... [T]here is a different and more fundamental cost that is independent of the monetary price. That is the energy cost of exploration and production. So long as oil is used as a source of energy, when the energy cost of recovering a barrel of oil becomes greater than the energy content of the oil, production will cease no matter what the monetary price may be."



I thought that it would be sweet to dedicate Fallout 3 to this old guy, especialy since it seems that oil will be gone in 5 to 10 years from now.

Well maybe not dedicate the whole game, what do you think?

Maybe give him some bitter sweet homage in the intro?

Nobody even wanted to hear him back then, and he was even ridiculed a little i believe.



And i think that now would really be most appropriate time to make Oil depletion from first two games even more significant part of the story or the background of it.

Look if the game ships out in five years it can, with any luck, come out exactly when the oil starts to be "really" expensive. And gone.

it would be funny, no?

Who knew it all along?



-added afterward-
heeey.... maybe its alll happening now, its starting now....maybe we are in a time loop where we always play the game first and it has ,...you know that ominous feeling.... and then the world realy goes through it...but the tech is now ofcourse upgraded... that one in the game is like an acid flashback thrugh time forward.... oh moma... power armor here i come.... where is the nearest vault?
Have to stock up some Jet...get ready.

 

[Arachnivore]

I thought that it would be sweet to dedicate Fallout 3 to this old guy, especially since it seems that oil will be gone in 5 to 10 years from now.

This is a little off topic but 5 to 10 years is, by far, the most pessimistic figure I've heard for the oil crisis taking full effect. Can you cite any sources on that? (I'm not trying to debate with you. I'm just interested in where you got your numbers from)

On topic:
How would you go about making oil depletion more significant (plot wise)? As far as I know, there isn't any oil in the fallout games. I guess there's flamethrower gas but for the most part people either get by without fossil fuels or use micro fusion or nuclear power instead.

I haven't heard of Dr. Hubbert so I'll have to read up on him, but dedicating F3 to (or otherwise honoring the memory of) a forward thinking scientist of that era would be great.

On the other hand, If F3 turns out to be a piece of shit than it seems like such a dedication would actually tarnish the man's legacy in a way.

 

[SuAside]

Well maybe not dedicate the whole game, what do you think?

Maybe give him some bitter sweet homage in the intro?

you'd be better off dedicating FO to the guys from the Manhattan Project...

can't go wrong with quoting Oppenheimer & croonies:
"If the radiance of a thousand suns were to burst at once into the sky, that would be like the splendor of the mighty one..."

or the better known:
"I am become Death, the destroyer of worlds."

but of course, that a discussion of dedicating to the 'means' or the 'cause'. either way, it doesnt matter all that much...

 

[Tannhauser]

I would rather the game stay faithful to the nuclear version of the apocalypse that most shaped it, and from which it is named after. One which the entire setting was crafted from, complete with its retro styling. Even if the old fellow made his original predictions in the fifties, it was far from part of popular culture from the period. It surely wasn't what preyed on people's minds and prominently portrayed in fiction.

As SuAside suggests, a quote or dedication to something concerning nuclear weapons is much more appropriate. There is also the added benefit that you don't have to change the setting to accommodate it.

And Sina, please keep this thread focused on Fallout 3. If you want to discuss peak oil, then start a thread in General Discussion.

 

[SuAside]

well Kotario, the energy crisis was the reason for the war in FO. it does remain true to the setting although it seems more modern because it's still an hot topic today.

i wasnt around in the 1950's so i cant say if the dude was part of that times culture & hence a TRUE part of FO or not. however, the fact alone that FO's war started over fuel/resources should be evidence enough.

as i said: it's more discussing "cause" vs "means"

 

[Tannhauser]

Thank you SuAside, I remember the ducile tones of Ron Perlman during Fallout's introduction quite well on my own. On the other hand, how much did that translate to in the games? I also seem to remember something about uranium in there. Of course, no one is harping on a peak uranium problem, so let us forget all about that.

Outside the bible, it boils down to that one line. Which seems like a flimsy premise to base the plot for the third game on (especially when inspired by the latest popular doom-and-gloom theory).

 

[SuAside]

On the other hand, how much did that translate to in the games? I also seem to remember something about uranium in there. Of course, no one is harping on a peak uranium problem, so let us forget all about that.

it does say that the resources fought over also became the weapons used in the fight. ergo: nukes, powerarmor,... but not available to the common man. only the governement & the military.

the US was 'winning', so why not see a decent amount of uranium? besides, in 50's scifi it's pretty clear that they viewed nuclear power as an endless source of power. hence why it's around a lot more than gasoil.

it's obvious in a way why uranium is easier to get than gasoil for your tanker in FO2. gasoil can be used by the common man & would run out rather fast when society collapses (imagine that in a world where gasoil is already an expensive commodity). uranium & nuclear power on the other hand is relatively rare, but cannot simply be used up by the common folks.

Outside the bible, it boils down to that one line. Which seems like a flimsy premise to base the plot for the third game on (especially when inspired by the latest popular doom-and-gloom theory).

that 'one line' is part of the most awesome intros ever made

and yes, it'd be kinda cheap to use it as a premise to base the plot on, but dude, it's bethesda

 

[Sina]

Ok ill try to do this all in one go.

Oppenheimer and the gang are too familiar already and that saying from bhagavadgita is almost corny now...well not to the general public perhaps but for freaks like us definitely.

And as you both know oil was a reason for war in Fallout universe.
-Suaside thanks for explaining, now i don't have to. 8)
Now, at that time it still looked weird and unbelievable so it kind of made an affect on me...because all prognosis were talking about atleast a 100 years of oil.
o
As it turns out its probably a little prophetic so i thought it would be nice, ironic, scary, to continue with that but mainly to integrate it more into the background story of Fallout.

I didn't mean to directly base the story on it, as oil does not play almost no major part in the fallout universe no more, except that enclave rig that maybe still could get some, although i don't remember finding anything of it in the game.
Oil rigs work so when you drain one site you move it to the other and continue drilling so theoretically at least it was a possibility.


Maybe in the game you could find somebody to talk about "golden age" , when everybody were driving their own cars everyday, where airplanes flew in thousands all day and night, ships too many to number connected the whole world and you could buy anything from anywhere literally.

There is a possibility that we will stories to our children like it was some fairytale in near future.

Maybe you could find a few libraries, computers with buried logs of data...you could make a sidequest where you find evidence of such a past running a deal for some local group and when you go back and tell them about it you get laughed at and nobody belives you.

Even if it doesn't happen in next 10 years, with prices going up steadily and consummation even more it wont take more than 20....but even long before that the prices will be skyhigh.


So no do not use it as a premise to base the plot on...make it a part of it.

Generally i would like Fallout to be little more serious about the world today through that weird 50s pulp sci-fi cool gritty good stuff design.

I do not think it would be bad to add references to today world through it. especially ones like this where one of the important parts of the story is actually becoming true.
Fallout left me thinking many times about ..well, many things.
It was a story of human stupidity, greed and its consequences done in that special way... its a story made to warn, ridicule, scare you, make you think...not just some cool shooter where you can kill hundreds and go whoring, drinking, snorting drugs, stealing, screaming, and killing some more.



I think the reasons for something are far more interesting than the means of final destruction and should get the same coverage.