welsh
Junkmaster
We have had this discussion before- how responsible is the executive for the economy?
Some say that the economy is generally out of the President's hands, that he is subject to the tides of the business cycle and global capitalism and has little power to act. Maybe, as an individual, but is this true for a ruling regime. For example, could Republican policies be responsible for the poor performance, or successful performance if you believe the smoke, of the economy?
But isn't that like saying that if the Chinese or the Germans play with currency fluctuation, they couldn't fuck up the economy.
Here is a bit from the NY Times of yesterday,
Some say that the economy is generally out of the President's hands, that he is subject to the tides of the business cycle and global capitalism and has little power to act. Maybe, as an individual, but is this true for a ruling regime. For example, could Republican policies be responsible for the poor performance, or successful performance if you believe the smoke, of the economy?
But isn't that like saying that if the Chinese or the Germans play with currency fluctuation, they couldn't fuck up the economy.
Here is a bit from the NY Times of yesterday,
The Economy Unspun
oth sides in this campaign have engaged in the usual debate about how much the president can do about the economy, apart from taking credit in good times and denying responsibility in bad times. There is truth to the notion that presidents cannot repeal economic cycles, and that President Bush was not to blame for the recession in 2001, from March to November.
But that's about as far as it goes. With the recession long over, Mr. Bush's other excuses for a recovery that is not producing enough jobs - the Enron scandal, the 9/11 terrorist attacks, his own war in Iraq - are unconvincing. The latest dismal job numbers clearly show that this administration's policies have failed to foster a flourishing economy. Worse, the president has failed to make midcourse corrections even as the job market has stalled.
Of all the economic indicators, the jobs record of the Bush years presents the most disturbing evidence that the forces currently at work in the economy are not merely cyclical. Economic distortions of historic dimensions have developed and can be traced in part to specific decisions. There is scant hope of a significant reversal without new policies.
It is now a certainty that Mr. Bush will be the first president since Herbert Hoover in 1932 to go into an election with a net decline in jobs over a single term. And there's more: during the Bush years, take-home pay, as a share of the economy, has fallen to its lowest level since 1929, when the government started keeping records. Corporate profits have grown faster - and wages and salaries far less - than in all other eight recoveries since World War II.
Mr. Bush tries to keep the focus on the job growth in the last year. But that has done little to erase the monthly losses that dominated the first nearly two years of the recovery. And the rate of job creation lately has barely kept pace with growth in the labor force. It has been well below the average of all post-World War II recoveries in all but March and April, when it was just above average. Last month, the economy needed to add about 300,000 jobs, rather than 96,000, just to hit the average.
How did we get here? Start with the tax cuts. Originally pitching them as a way to refund the budget surplus, the administration simply recast its tax cuts as a fiscal stimulus when the economy went south. But the tax cuts that may be appropriate for a thriving economy are not right for a recession or a sluggish recovery.
Tax breaks for affluent people, which Mr. Bush's mostly were, theoretically lead to capital growth and higher productivity and, from there, to more jobs. But since Mr. Bush was facing a downturn, not the boom in which he formulated his tax plans, it would have been much wiser to adjust to reality and enact measures to increase consumption, which leads more directly to job and income growth. Fully 37 percent of the cost of Mr. Bush's fiscal policies went to cutting the top tax rates on income, estates, dividends and capital gains, a tactic that does little to spur consumption. Only 3 percent went to aid for state governments - widely believed to be one of the most effective economic stimuli available.
So productivity growth, already strong, got the most support. The other economic drivers - consumption, job growth and income gains - got short shrift, and are now even weaker than they would otherwise have been. Worse, the administration knew what it was doing. Writing in The Times Sunday Magazine last month, Roger Lowenstein recounted a conversation in which Mr. Bush asked Glenn Hubbard, then his top economics adviser, what to do about the sagging job numbers. Mr. Hubbard told him not to let short-term numbers sway him from tax cuts. Those short-term numbers have been bad for nearly four years now.
In the meantime, the tax cuts have blown a hole in the federal budget. Conventional wisdom holds that the deficit - now $415 billion - does not affect employment because its effects are too abstract to be factored into day-to-day hiring decisions. That's only half-true. Hiring reflects confidence, and financial markets certainly watch the deficit. As the job situation fails to improve and the deficit restricts the nation's ability to respond, the markets react. Stocks tumbled last Friday with the job numbers and high oil prices. Even more ominous, the dollar fell against most major currencies, which could make it harder to finance America's outsized deficits and lead to rapidly rising interest rates.
True to the belief that tax cuts will eventually prove to be a cure-all, the administration has offered no meaningful relief to struggling Americans. In fact, Mr. Bush signed another tax cut last week and is expected to sign a deeply misguided corporate tax cut soon. Federal unemployment benefits expired at the end of 2003 and since then, three million people have exhausted their state benefits. Meanwhile, the long-term unemployed increased in September, both in number and as a share of the total unemployed population. The administration has balked at raising the minimum wage, now at its lowest level since 1949, relative to the average wage. And the Labor Department has effectively thwarted the 2002 law that was to have helped Americans who lose their manufacturing jobs to outsourcing.
The truth is, policies matter. Presidents matter. And this president has not done the right things for American workers.