welsh
Junkmaster
Ok, there has been a lot of noise about pulling US troops out of Iraq.
Generally speaking it seems that Congress is putting pressure on the President to get us out, that the war hasn't been worth the costs, that things are not working and we're not helping matters much.
Ok.
But I am wondering if that's such a good idea.
Not to say that Bush isn't an idiot, that the war looks like a giant fuck-up (no offense to the troops, it's the planners that have botched this- you're paying for their mistakes). And to be honest, it does look like the Bush administration sent the US on this war under false pretenses and did a awful job of planning for the post-war reconstruction. I mean, wasn't all that oil supposed to pay for reconstruction? Weren't the Iraqis supposed to great us like liberators like back in World War 2?
That said, I am not so sure.
Costs of pulling out-
On one side, if the US pulls out of the war, it might be opening up the possibility for a major civil war. It's possible that what keeps the three different factions (Sunnis, Kurds and Shi'ites) from blowing each other up is the presence of the US. The US has been doing reconstruction work and does some of the rather nasty policing that has been going on. The US presence also helps keep the role of Iraq's neighbors down.
IF the US were to pull out there would be little to keep the factions from fighting. Iran, Syria and Saudi Arabia would be more involved. Funding for reconstruction would go down, and their would be less pressure to push for constitutional reforms. My suspicion is that a lot more people would die and the possibility for a more peaceful resolution would be lost. The goal of the war- security of the flow of oil, would be lost.
Costs of not- pulling out.
In contrast its also possible that the US presence is one of the reasons conflict continues. Perceived as an imperialist powers, Muslims have been going to Iraq to fight. The indigenous insurgents are justified to fight because they feel that they are fighting a foreign, infidel invader. Because of the US presence, different factions can continue a war of attrition against each other- getting the benefit of economic aid and development while perpetuating a low-level civil conflict in pursuit of political objectives.
If the US were to pull out, it is possible that these sides would have to negotiate with more earnest as both sides would have more to risk. One cause for perpetuating the insurgency- foreign invasion- would be removed. Furthermore, the new Iraqi state would have more autonomy and crediability in its ability to establish its monopoly of power over Iraq. Of course for the US it would mean less of our people coming home in body bags or with limbs missing, and less money being poured down a deep, and perhaps empty well. And while the neighbors would likely get involved, they would be interested in keeping the oil pipelines flowing- wouldn't they?
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Your thoughts?
Generally speaking it seems that Congress is putting pressure on the President to get us out, that the war hasn't been worth the costs, that things are not working and we're not helping matters much.
Ok.
But I am wondering if that's such a good idea.
Not to say that Bush isn't an idiot, that the war looks like a giant fuck-up (no offense to the troops, it's the planners that have botched this- you're paying for their mistakes). And to be honest, it does look like the Bush administration sent the US on this war under false pretenses and did a awful job of planning for the post-war reconstruction. I mean, wasn't all that oil supposed to pay for reconstruction? Weren't the Iraqis supposed to great us like liberators like back in World War 2?
That said, I am not so sure.
Costs of pulling out-
On one side, if the US pulls out of the war, it might be opening up the possibility for a major civil war. It's possible that what keeps the three different factions (Sunnis, Kurds and Shi'ites) from blowing each other up is the presence of the US. The US has been doing reconstruction work and does some of the rather nasty policing that has been going on. The US presence also helps keep the role of Iraq's neighbors down.
IF the US were to pull out there would be little to keep the factions from fighting. Iran, Syria and Saudi Arabia would be more involved. Funding for reconstruction would go down, and their would be less pressure to push for constitutional reforms. My suspicion is that a lot more people would die and the possibility for a more peaceful resolution would be lost. The goal of the war- security of the flow of oil, would be lost.
Costs of not- pulling out.
In contrast its also possible that the US presence is one of the reasons conflict continues. Perceived as an imperialist powers, Muslims have been going to Iraq to fight. The indigenous insurgents are justified to fight because they feel that they are fighting a foreign, infidel invader. Because of the US presence, different factions can continue a war of attrition against each other- getting the benefit of economic aid and development while perpetuating a low-level civil conflict in pursuit of political objectives.
If the US were to pull out, it is possible that these sides would have to negotiate with more earnest as both sides would have more to risk. One cause for perpetuating the insurgency- foreign invasion- would be removed. Furthermore, the new Iraqi state would have more autonomy and crediability in its ability to establish its monopoly of power over Iraq. Of course for the US it would mean less of our people coming home in body bags or with limbs missing, and less money being poured down a deep, and perhaps empty well. And while the neighbors would likely get involved, they would be interested in keeping the oil pipelines flowing- wouldn't they?
--
Your thoughts?
