Should Liberals vote for Bush?

John Uskglass

Venerable Relic of the Wastes
WRITING in The Sunday Times this week, Michael Portillo urged Americans to vote Democrat. Other Tory MPs, including Alan Duncan, the party’s former foreign affairs spokesman, have expressed similar views.

I recognise the ideological consistency of Conservative critics of the current US Administration. I have voted Labour for more than 20 years; I even did so under Michael Foot’s disastrous leadership in 1983. I am pro-European and believe in “foreign policy with an ethical dimension”. The American presidential contender who most closely represents my ideals is George W. Bush, whose re-election I hope for.

Liberal internationalism envisages an order founded on constitutional democratic principles. It stands, as Woodrow Wilson declared in 1917, “for the rights of nations great and small and the privilege of men everywhere to choose their way of life and of obedience”. It advocates maintaining peace through collective security and non-discriminatory trade.

John Kerry is no inheritor of this tradition. His foreign policy reveals a conservative pessimism about the limits of political action (a stance that will be familiar to Michael Portillo from his service in a Government that declined to confront Serb aggression against Bosnia). Kerry’s distaste for American exceptionalism runs deep. Lawrence Kaplan recently recorded in the American political journal The New Republic that when, in 1997, President Clinton described the United States as the “indispensable nation”, Kerry retorted, “Why are we adopting such an arrogant, obnoxious tone?”

Senator Kerry’s line of attack against the Administration’s foreign policy is misconceived. Sceptical of the malleability of the international order, it echoes the traditional conservative incantation against “nation-building”. But America is not trying to build nations, which take generations to evolve. It has the more limited aim of replacing failed states and tyrannies with institutional arrangements that protect people from capricious rule and violence.

No more facile remark has been uttered about the Iraq war than John Kerry’s lament that it diverted the focus of the War on Terror. Overthrowing Baathist totalitarianism was a humanitarian cause, but it also buttressed Western security. Recent academic research suggests that — contrary to numerous confident episcopal assertions — the “root cause” of terrorism is not poverty but political repression. Societies where dissent is confined to religious absolutism are incubators of violent anti-Western fanaticism. The authors of one study, the Princeton economist Alan B. Krueger and Jitka Maleckova of Charles University in Prague, maintain that terrorism, rather than being generated by poverty or lack of education, may be “more accurately viewed as a response to political conditions and longstanding feelings of indignity and frustration that have little to do with economic circumstances.”

Postwar American foreign policy has been consistently compromised by tactical alliances with authoritarian regimes. These were a moral failure but also a strategic blunder — in Vietnam, Latin America, or the notorious tilt to Saddam in the Iran-Iraq War. President Bush, by contrast, maintains that the spread of liberty, not the balance of power among states, is the best assurance for Western security. It’s a premise that explains his contempt for the duplicitous autocrat Yassir Arafat while — a fact lost on many of Bush’s European critics — aiming explicitly for a Palestinian state.

This approach is plausible. A state that lies to its own people (recall the unanimous popular votes for Saddam in Iraqi plebiscites) is unlikely to be open and trustworthy on the international stage. In a world where Islamist terrorists seek the destruction of Western civilisation, and where means for accomplishing that end are numerous and dispersed, our values and interests coincide in promoting democracy internationally.

President Bush’s foreign policy is liberal in conception but it differs from Wilsonianism in execution. That ought to be the Democrats’ line of attack. Woodrow Wilson believed in fostering democracy through international institutions. By contrast, President Bush is dismissive of the United Nations after its prolonged failure to implement its own Security Council resolutions on Iraq. He has a point, but his Administration has pursued it with unseemly slights against nations whose assistance is needed given the lamentable failure of postwar planning for Iraq.

Similarly, the US has a reasonable case on both Kyoto and the International Criminal Court, but has undermined it with a determined exacerbation of diplomatic frictions. Then there is Abu Ghraib. Michael Portillo maintains: “For America to brush away its recent disgraces, the electorate will have to bin this Administration.”

Yet that is frivolous reasoning. The tortures and deaths in US custody require expiation, not just symbolically but practically, to the people of Iraq, in the form of due process and the rule of law. Those values, so traduced by American jailers, are exemplified in the arraignment before an Iraqi court of a despot whose regime was founded on torture and killing. Were it not for President Bush, and had there been a President Gore, Saddam would still be in power.

Democrats had the chance to avoid the type of embittered and personalised partisanship that characterised Republican attacks on President Clinton’s Kosovo intervention. They could have offered a thoughtful critique of the flawed execution of Bush’s foreign policy. Instead Kerry ululates about the President’s perfidy in exaggerating Saddam’s military threat. But European liberals should have scant reason to wish for this obscurantist reactionary Democrat in the White House.


http://oliverkamm.typepad.com/blog/
 
It's a very compelling case. Though, I don't see how Kerry's foreign policy would be different from Bush's in practice.

Though both of them have poor ideas for the economy, Kerry is at least less of a social authoritarian than Bush is.

Kerry's problem concerning foreign policy though, is that his proposals are actually more unilateral than Bush's.

This is the worst election we've had in a long time. Not that it matters, since I'll be voting Libertarian. =P
 
If you are going to vote for a third party, don't vote for the Libertarians, vote for the Green Party. Not that it makes a difference, the Green Party just annoys me less than the Libertarians.

You could always write-in Powell for President. The best man for the job, one who doesn't want it!
 
Well, seeing as how I am a Libertarian, I think not.

If its any consolation, I would've voted for Edwards or Clark if they had been nominated for the Democratic ticket.
 
My biggest problem with Kerry is that he can't seem to stick to a message - he will say something to an audience during one campaign speech, and then turn around and say the opposite at another audience at another speech.

My view is very simple: there are a lot of very bad people who would like to kill all the Americans, and they need to be stopped. It seems Bush is really the only one who is willing to do that.
 
Retlaw83 said:
My biggest problem with Kerry is that he can't seem to stick to a message - he will say something to an audience during one campaign speech, and then turn around and say the opposite at another audience at another speech.

I agree, he's worse than Gore with his waffling. Whats even funnier is how Kerry is for punishing company's that outsource jobs overseas.

He ignores the fact that his wife, Terresa Heinz-Kerry, who runs a large company has been doing just that.,

Retlaw83 said:
My view is very simple: there are a lot of very bad people who would like to kill all the Americans, and they need to be stopped. It seems Bush is really the only one who is willing to do that.


I concur. Kerry wants to use groups like the UN, but he ignores that the UN is ineffective. The UN had rules for Iraq after its invasion of Kuwait, and Iraq regulary flouted them til the day the US attacked to liberate the country.


Fact is, Kerry simply lacks credibility in my eyes.

For example, I read in USA Today (an american newspapper with national distribution) a breif letter that was written by Kerry's former CO at the time when he got wounded in Vietnam once.

The letter was sgned by the former CO, as well as a doctor who treated Kerry.


The letter basicly said that there had been no enemy contact that night, and Kerry simply fired a M-79 grenade launcher to close to him and he got hit by a small peice of shrapnel from his own weapon.
Kerry asked his CO to recmend him for a purple heard for that.
 
I agree Ancient-

Psychosniper- ok so he received sharpnel from a M-79. Are you going to criticize every person who got a accidental wound or a wound in the course of service in a war zone? How does that compare to the fact that Bush didn't receive a purple heart for the paper cut he received while being in the National Guard but campaigning in Alabama. Hey at least Kerry's CO remembers him showing up.

OK, so let's take a closer look at this article-


ConstipatedCraprunner said:
.....The American presidential contender who most closely represents my ideals is George W. Bush, whose re-election I hope for.

Liberal internationalism envisages an order founded on constitutional democratic principles. It stands, as Woodrow Wilson declared in 1917, “for the rights of nations great and small and the privilege of men everywhere to choose their way of life and of obedience”. It advocates maintaining peace through collective security and non-discriminatory trade.


Perhaps the best place to look at Wilson's legacy is at the 14 point he presents at the end of World War 1.

http://www.lib.byu.edu/~rdh/wwi/1918/14points.html

If we were to paraphrase some of them-

Point 1- basically transparency in public affairs.
Point 2 - freedom of commerce at the seas
point 3- removal of economic barriers to trade
point 4- arms reduction
point 5- end colonialism and national self-recognition
point 6- recognition of the sovereignty of russia- which we can see as recognition of the self-determination and sovereignty of foreign states to what they wish.
point 7- recognizing the sovereignty of belgium under international law- in otherwords - support international law as the means of peace.
pont 8- restoration of invaded lands of France to reduce furture conflict
point 9 - recognizing national boundaries to fit national identity of Italy-
point 10- freedom of autonomous development- in that case Austria-Hungary.
point 11- political autonomy of the Balkans
point 12- Ditto Turkey with emphasis on transit through straits of Dardenelles.
point 13- self-determination and creation of an independent nation state in Poland
point 14- creation of the league of Nations- forerunner of the UN

John Kerry is no inheritor of this tradition. His foreign policy reveals a conservative pessimism about the limits of political action (a stance that will be familiar to Michael Portillo from his service in a Government that declined to confront Serb aggression against Bosnia). Kerry’s distaste for American exceptionalism runs deep. Lawrence Kaplan recently recorded in the American political journal The New Republic that when, in 1997, President Clinton described the United States as the “indispensable nation”, Kerry retorted, “Why are we adopting such an arrogant, obnoxious tone?”

IN that sense Clinton seems to be talking more in the language of Roosevelt who saw the US as an important player in international politics, a rising power that needed to make it's voice heard.

So Roosevelt represents the internationalist and the strong US, Wilson supports the activist, multinationalist- this is a conclusion Kissinger reaches in Diplomacy as well.

But there is a third current as well- Washington and the desire to maintain isolationist and avoid the problems of Europe.

WHich of these is Bush, which is Kerry? ANd we need to look beyond the rhetoric as well.

Senator Kerry’s line of attack against the Administration’s foreign policy is misconceived. Sceptical of the malleability of the international order, it echoes the traditional conservative incantation against “nation-building”. But America is not trying to build nations, which take generations to evolve. It has the more limited aim of replacing failed states and tyrannies with institutional arrangements that protect people from capricious rule and violence.

This seems a misconception. THe US is not involved in nation building since nations are bodies of people. States however are systems of organization- bodies of institutions.

State-building in non-failed states is usually left to the local population with some supervision occassionally given by international bodies- the UN in Namibia and Camobodia, World Bank policies in Africa, etc.

Active state building by one nation is usually only done under conditions in which a failed state can no long provide the public goods or security that are popularly conceived to come with statehood.

The creation of states is the building of institutions in order to provide security and generally the protection of property rights by property holders. That does seem to be what the US is doing in both Iraq and Afghanistan.

IS that a Wilsonian idea? Well apply Wilson one would think that he would prefer it being done by Point 14- an international body, that recognizes the sovereign will of the people, is not a military exercise and supports international economic development without any one country the key player as that destabilizes the international order. We need also pay attention to Wilson's views against colonialism as well, especially in conjunction with much of the 14 Points message which seems to advocate a non-imperialist position.


No more facile remark has been uttered about the Iraq war than John Kerry’s lament that it diverted the focus of the War on Terror. Overthrowing Baathist totalitarianism was a humanitarian cause, but it also buttressed Western security.

I buy that. In fact I have argued here that the reason for intervention shouldn't be WMD or terrorism but the failure of the sanctions, the in humanity of Saddam's regime and his regular willingness to destabilize a region essential for global economic relations.

But that's not what the Bush administration sold the war as. And that's where the problems begin.

Furthermore, many of those who did support the war didn't think he'd fuck it up as badly as he has either.

Recent academic research suggests that — contrary to numerous confident episcopal assertions — the “root cause” of terrorism is not poverty but political repression. Societies where dissent is confined to religious absolutism are incubators of violent anti-Western fanaticism. The authors of one study, the Princeton economist Alan B. Krueger and Jitka Maleckova of Charles University in Prague, maintain that terrorism, rather than being generated by poverty or lack of education, may be “more accurately viewed as a response to political conditions and longstanding feelings of indignity and frustration that have little to do with economic circumstances.”

http://www.worldbank.org/research/conflict/papers/greedandgrievance.htm

Though I don't agree with all the study it does suggest that the three necessities for a civil war are-
(1) money- wars are expensive and cost money
(2) a labor pool- of unemployed males is best
(3) a reason for them to be pissed off.

In the middle east you have all three. But the question then becomes why have political authoritarians been in power so long, and what does political authoritarianism have to do with poverty.

These are countries in which poeple are both repressed by authoritarian governments and are poor. Which matters more?

But historically terrorists have often been of middle class families, often college trained intellectuals. Those don't seem to be the people we are fighting in Afghanistan or Iraq, but fairly represent the people in Israel. They look like many of the terrorists that have committed terror bombings in Europe and, in the 1970s, the US. But they don't look like the people fighting in Sudan.


Postwar American foreign policy has been consistently compromised by tactical alliances with authoritarian regimes. These were a moral failure but also a strategic blunder — in Vietnam, Latin America, or the notorious tilt to Saddam in the Iran-Iraq War.

One might add Sudan to that list.

President Bush, by contrast, maintains that the spread of liberty, not the balance of power among states, is the best assurance for Western security. It’s a premise that explains his contempt for the duplicitous autocrat Yassir Arafat while — a fact lost on many of Bush’s European critics — aiming explicitly for a Palestinian state.

But the spread of democratization occurred in the 1990s during the Clinton administration.

Is he suggesting that the reason for Bush's contempt for Arafat is because he's an autocrat or because he launches terror strikes against a US ally, Israel?

This approach is plausible. A state that lies to its own people (recall the unanimous popular votes for Saddam in Iraqi plebiscites) is unlikely to be open and trustworthy on the international stage.

That's ironic considering the WMD and Saddam-Osama connection.

In a world where Islamist terrorists seek the destruction of Western civilisation, and where means for accomplishing that end are numerous and dispersed, our values and interests coincide in promoting democracy internationally.

I will buy that too. But the question is whether that is what the Bush administration is actually furthering.

The most recent wave of democratizations began at the end of the Cold War. Considering that as a trend, can we really say that Bush is responsible for spreading Democracy? Considering current politics could he say anything different? "Hey George what do you think about a democracy in this country?" - GB- "Fuck em, let them have a dictator"- probably wouldn't sell on the evening news.

President Bush’s foreign policy is liberal in conception but it differs from Wilsonianism in execution. That ought to be the Democrats’ line of attack. Woodrow Wilson believed in fostering democracy through international institutions. By contrast, President Bush is dismissive of the United Nations after its prolonged failure to implement its own Security Council resolutions on Iraq. He has a point, but his Administration has pursued it with unseemly slights against nations whose assistance is needed given the lamentable failure of postwar planning for Iraq.

Considering that every president since Wilson has credited himself as a Wilsonian (even Nixon who's use of Kissinger shoudl fall into the "real politik" of Roosevelt) than there isn't much work there.

It's not what you say, it's what you do. Wilson was a multinationalist, Bush is a unilateralist. That Bush's administration spent so much time at the UN might have more to do with Powell trying to get help. Remember this is a president who's first national security meeting was on the removal of Saddam, but who didn't think of the post-war planning until a few months before the war started.

Similarly, the US has a reasonable case on both Kyoto and the International Criminal Court, but has undermined it with a determined exacerbation of diplomatic frictions. Then there is Abu Ghraib. Michael Portillo maintains: “For America to brush away its recent disgraces, the electorate will have to bin this Administration.”

There again - the problem of being unilateral. ALso the question of respect and furtherance of international law. While I personally think that Kyoto was a bad agreement and the ICC could have been dealt with better, that the prison scandal really puts some problems on the notion of a moral mission.

Yet that is frivolous reasoning. The tortures and deaths in US custody require expiation, not just symbolically but practically, to the people of Iraq, in the form of due process and the rule of law. Those values, so traduced by American jailers, are exemplified in the arraignment before an Iraqi court of a despot whose regime was founded on torture and killing. Were it not for President Bush, and had there been a President Gore, Saddam would still be in power.

Not sure if this is true, but I think Gore would not have rushed to war so fast.

That said, the notion of due process, rule of law, etc, and the lack is making the US look like a new despot. THat's a problem for a nation's crediability.

It would have been one thing to go to war to say- "We are removing Saddam because the sanction system has not worked and the Iraqi people are suffering." But it's another to say, "We are going for the WMD." but if they are not there and the government lies about it, than what is the US to say when it really does find a case of WMD?

This goes to that notion of transparency in international relations.

While we might say it was a failure of intelligence, then who is responsible at the end. If not the boss, than who?

Democrats had the chance to avoid the type of embittered and personalised partisanship that characterised Republican attacks on President Clinton’s Kosovo intervention. They could have offered a thoughtful critique of the flawed execution of Bush’s foreign policy. Instead Kerry ululates about the President’s perfidy in exaggerating Saddam’s military threat. But European liberals should have scant reason to wish for this obscurantist reactionary Democrat in the White House.

Obscurantist reactionary? Same candidate who has suggested a greater role of the UN in Iraq? Seems silly.

But yes, a greater discussion of the flaws of the Bush administration is warranted. A couple stand out- the question of elections, the choice of leadership, the failure to have a plan, the danger of over-optimism.
 
The thing with Kerry's M-79 is that he was firing it for fun, encouraging his crewman to join him. Several pointed that (A) firing weapons and thus increasing their visibility was stupid, and (B) his targets were much too close to the boat. Kerry claimed the wound he recieved during this was small-arms fire from the enemy; his crewman contended there was no enemy and that he was a twit. The doctor removed the single piece of shrapnel under Kerry's eye with a pair of tweezers - there was no need for stitches, pain killer or anasthetic. While the doctor couldn't say anything definite - it wasn't his job - he did say in his report that the wound was superficial at best and not indicitave of small arms fire.
 
IN that sense Clinton seems to be talking more in the language of Roosevelt who saw the US as an important player in international politics, a rising power that needed to make it's voice heard.

So Roosevelt represents the internationalist and the strong US, Wilson supports the activist, multinationalist- this is a conclusion Kissinger reaches in Diplomacy as well.

But there is a third current as well- Washington and the desire to maintain isolationist and avoid the problems of Europe.

WHich of these is Bush, which is Kerry? ANd we need to look beyond the rhetoric as well.

Bush and Kerry are both more Roosevelt than anything. The primary difference between the two is that Bush is more assertive and idealistic, while Kerry is a pessimist, and thus more tactically practical. Neither is really wrong in those respects, but whether or not you agree with their views depends on your own personal opinion. Like, I agree with Bush's wishes for a sovereign Palestine and disagree with Kerry's support of a Greater Israel. (i.e. an Israeli Palestine)

IS that a Wilsonian idea? Well apply Wilson one would think that he would prefer it being done by Point 14- an international body, that recognizes the sovereign will of the people, is not a military exercise and supports international economic development without any one country the key player as that destabilizes the international order. We need also pay attention to Wilson's views against colonialism as well, especially in conjunction with much of the 14 Points message which seems to advocate a non-imperialist position.

Yes, though, I think Wilson would rather one nation do good than none. Keep in mind America's lack of membership in the impotent League of Nations.

These are countries in which poeple are both repressed by authoritarian governments and are poor. Which matters more?

One could say that these people are poor because they live in oppressive regimes. The Iranian oil industry, for instance, is practically non-existant under the rule of the Mullahs. Then again, it prospered under the Shah, and I think everybody is familiar with that story.

But the spread of democratization occurred in the 1990s during the Clinton administration.

Is he suggesting that the reason for Bush's contempt for Arafat is because he's an autocrat or because he launches terror strikes against a US ally, Israel?

Does it matter? Just because Clinton began America's involvement in establishing foreign democracies doesn't mean that Bush can't continue the work.

I will buy that too. But the question is whether that is what the Bush administration is actually furthering.

The most recent wave of democratizations began at the end of the Cold War. Considering that as a trend, can we really say that Bush is responsible for spreading Democracy? Considering current politics could he say anything different? "Hey George what do you think about a democracy in this country?" - GB- "Fuck em, let them have a dictator"- probably wouldn't sell on the evening news.

Well, one has to consider the strategic importance of Iraq. Its practically in the center of the region, and a succesful Iraqi democracy would accelerate the democratic movements in Arabia and Iran. The other concern, though, is that by freeing up Iraq's oil reserves we're effectively ending the Saud's monopoly on cheap oil. In that sense, we could then apply more influence on the Sauds and wouldn't have to fashion our policies in the Middle East around Prince Abdullah's wishes. Clinton would've loved nothing better than to impose a regime change in Iraq, its just that he didn't have the type of precedence that 9/11 offered Bush.

Not sure if this is true, but I think Gore would not have rushed to war so fast.

Wouldn't he? I'm not really sure. Was Gore's view on foreign policy much different from Clinton's?

It would have been one thing to go to war to say- "We are removing Saddam because the sanction system has not worked and the Iraqi people are suffering." But it's another to say, "We are going for the WMD." but if they are not there and the government lies about it, than what is the US to say when it really does find a case of WMD?

Yes, there is a certain sense that the administration thinks Americans are too stupid to grasp the realities of global policies. But do you think the UN or the American people would agree to a regime change if the administration gave its primary reasons for the invasion?

Obscurantist reactionary? Same candidate who has suggested a greater role of the UN in Iraq? Seems silly.

Not when you factor in Kerry's previous contempt for the UN.
 
Not sure if this is true, but I think Gore would not have rushed to war so fast.
------------------------------

Wouldn't he? I'm not really sure. Was Gore's view on foreign policy much different from Clinton's?

Keep in mind that Clinton's info on Iraqi WMD's was very similar to what Bush was receiving, and he never rushed into Iraq. Although 9/11 did change our views on US national security, I doubt that Gore would have rushed into Iraq as quickly as Bush did. Afghanistan, on the other hand, would have been handled by Gore similarly to how this administration handled it IMO, primarily because of the direct and irrefutable links to Al-Qaeda and other terrorist groups.
 
Bush and Kerry are both more Roosevelt than anything. The primary difference between the two is that Bush is more assertive and idealistic, while Kerry is a pessimist, and thus more tactically practical. Neither is really wrong in those respects, but whether or not you agree with their views depends on your own personal opinion. Like, I agree with Bush's wishes for a sovereign Palestine and disagree with Kerry's support of a Greater Israel. (i.e. an Israeli Palestine)

Would like to see a link on Kerry's position on Palestine as well as to Kerry's views on foreign policy- why do you think he's pessimistic?

That both of them seem to be more in the Roosvelt tradition might have something to do with the power of the US at this point in history- in otherwords the structure of power in the international system frames the ideas, not the ideas frame the structure of power.

Yes, though, I think Wilson would rather one nation do good than none. Keep in mind America's lack of membership in the impotent League of Nations.

The US stayed out of the League of Nations neither because of Wilson nor, as is commonly believed, because a majority of the Congress didn't want international involvement.

The problem was that while a majority of Congress wanted to be more internationally involved, that group was divided by multinationalists and unilateralists. Given that division, the isolationists were able to keep the US out of the League of Nations. The isolationists were not able to keep the US out of international affairs, however. Note the the Kellogg-Briand pact outlawing war was named, in part, by an American statesman, and was the pact used to prosecute the Nazi's after World War 2 for crimes against peace.

One could say that these people are poor because they live in oppressive regimes. The Iranian oil industry, for instance, is practically non-existant under the rule of the Mullahs. Then again, it prospered under the Shah, and I think everybody is familiar with that story.

It did better under the Shah, but not everyone did better under the Shah. Also the Shah was in power during the 1970s and it was an oil exporting state. These are among the exceptions of the general rule that natural resource producers do well. There is added evidence that countries that are natural resource producers but have large populations also have troubles- Algeria, Nigeria are cases.

But terrorism- the problem again is that we drag into being a large group of people when we utilize that label terrorism. Do we count the Japanese terrorists that caused trouble in the 1970s? Baader Meinhof gang? Terrorism works because it can be done with a small disciplined group.

But is that representative of the terrorists being fought in Iraq or Afghanistan, or should we call that something else?

Does it matter? Just because Clinton began America's involvement in establishing foreign democracies doesn't mean that Bush can't continue the work.

It does. To suggest that the wave of democratization is due to international events or the influence of one major power dismisses the internal social, political and economic causes that lead to democratization. It may be that external influences have very little to do with most democratizations. In that sense it might also be found that many of the authoritarians that were around in 1990 were able to survive democratic transitions and stay in power. Do to international or domestic causes? ANd if international and domestic causes are linked, how.

If Bush is trying to take credit for this than he has to show that (1) external influence really made the deciding difference, and (2) that the trend towards democratization that is paying off can be credited to his initiatives and not those adopted from the Clinton/ democratic administration.

Well, one has to consider the strategic importance of Iraq. Its practically in the center of the region, and a succesful Iraqi democracy would accelerate the democratic movements in Arabia and Iran.

Perhaps. In a sense you are saying that there is a "display" effect. that one country's democratization might lead to anothers- to some extent I will buy that, but I think we have to look more to internal causes for real differences. To create a democracy requires more than brute force or displays of freedom. It requires collective action by members of civil society to get politically involved, it often requires either elite rivalries or tolerance of other movements.

Robert Dahl wrote an excellent book, Polyarchies, where he made the simple observation that much of whether a democratic transition can occur depends on whether the ruling regime can tolerate those who want to democratize, or if the costs of repression are too high. But there is more, check Przeworski, Democratization and the Market, where he points out that the those who mobilize for the overthrow of a authoritarian may wish to become the authoritarians themselves and must work together to achieve the end of democratization while competing with each other for eventual leadership. End result, democratization is very difficult to achieve.

The other concern, though, is that by freeing up Iraq's oil reserves we're effectively ending the Saud's monopoly on cheap oil. In that sense, we could then apply more influence on the Sauds and wouldn't have to fashion our policies in the Middle East around Prince Abdullah's wishes. Clinton would've loved nothing better than to impose a regime change in Iraq, its just that he didn't have the type of precedence that 9/11 offered Bush.

That's possible. But that's something that has been argued here, that the government has an opportunity to remove Saddam and took it, and that most of the rhetoric was just selling the war. But the problem I have with this is that it's based on plausible assumptions but little evidence. Do we have proof that this was Bush's intention or plans?

Not sure if this is true, but I think Gore would not have rushed to war so fast.
Wouldn't he? I'm not really sure. Was Gore's view on foreign policy much different from Clinton's?

That will be one of the great "what ifs"

It would have been one thing to go to war to say- "We are removing Saddam because the sanction system has not worked and the Iraqi people are suffering." But it's another to say, "We are going for the WMD." but if they are not there and the government lies about it, than what is the US to say when it really does find a case of WMD?
Yes, there is a certain sense that the administration thinks Americans are too stupid to grasp the realities of global policies. But do you think the UN or the American people would agree to a regime change if the administration gave its primary reasons for the invasion?

The UN, probably not. Not with France sitting on the Security Council perhaps. But a more honest approach might have worked better. THe American people, I think deserve to have an honest government. It's a matter of transparency and respect. If you are going to start a war that will kill 1000 plus Americans, than you should at least tell the people why.
 
Would like to see a link on Kerry's position on Palestine as well as to Kerry's views on foreign policy- why do you think he's pessimistic?

I think Kerry's a pessimist because he has no real ideological convictions. Perhaps pessimist isn't as accurate a word as opportunist.

But here's an article from a liberal web site that lists Kerry's views on American foreign policy via his voting record in congress. I'll specifically highlight the part concerning Israel and Palestine, though.

http://www.commondreams.org/views04/0305-03.htm

Kerry’s Foreign Policy Record Suggests Few Differences with Bush
by Stephen Zunes

Those who had hoped that a possible defeat of President George W. Bush in November would mean real changes in U.S. foreign policy have little to be hopeful about now that Massachusetts Senator John Kerry has effectively captured the Democratic presidential nomination.

That Senator Kerry supported the Bush Administration’s invasion of Iraq and lied about former dictator Saddam Hussein possessing a sizable arsenal of weapons of mass destruction in order to justify it would be reason enough to not support him. (See my March 1, 2004 article “Kerry’s Support for the Invasion of Iraq and the Bush Doctrine Still Unexplained” )

However, a look at his record shows that Kerry’s overall foreign policy agenda has also been a lot closer to the Republicans than to the rank-and-file Democrats he claims to represent.

This is not too surprising, given that his top foreign policy advisors include: Rand Beers, the chief defender of the deadly airborne crop-fumigation program in Colombia who has justified U.S. support for that country’s repressive right-wing government by falsely claiming that Al-Qaeda was training Colombian rebels; Richard Morningstar, a supporter of the dictatorial regime in Azerbaijan and a major backer of the controversial Baku-Tbilisi oil pipeline, which placed the profits of Chevron, Halliburton and Unocal above human rights and environmental concerns; and, William Perry, former Secretary of Defense, member of the Carlisle Group, and advocate for major military contractors.

More importantly, however, are the positions that Kerry himself advocates:

For example, Senator Kerry has supported the transfer, at taxpayer expense, of tens of billions of dollars worth of armaments and weapons systems to governments which engage in a pattern of gross and systematic human rights violations. He has repeatedly ignored the Arms Control Export Act and other provisions in U.S. and international law promoting arms control and human rights.

Senator Kerry has also been a big supporter of the neo-liberal model of globalization. He supported NAFTA, despite its lack of adequate environmental safeguards or labor standards. He voted to ratify U.S. membership in the World Trade Organization, despite its ability to overrule national legislation that protects consumers and the environment, in order to maximize corporate profits. He even pushed for most-favored nation trading status for China, despite that government’s savage repression of independent unions and pro-democracy activists.

Were it not for 9/11 and its aftermath, globalization would have likely been the major foreign policy issue of the 2004 presidential campaign. Had this been the case, Kerry would have clearly been identified on the right wing of the Democratic contenders.

As Lieutenant Governor of Massachusetts in the early 1980s, Kerry ignored widespread public opposition to encourage the Reagan Administration to base a large naval flotilla in Boston Harbor, which would include as its central weapons system the nuclear-armed Tomahawk cruise missile. Kerry’s advocacy for the deployment of this dangerous and destabilizing first-strike weapon not only raised serious environmental concerns for residents of the Boston area, but was widely interpreted as an effort to undermine the proposed nuclear weapons freeze.

The end of the Cold War did not have much impact on Senator Kerry’s penchant for supporting the Pentagon. Despite the lack of the Soviet Union to justify wasteful military boondoggles, Senator Kerry has continued to vote in favor of record military budgets, even though only a minority of the spending increases he has supported in recent years has had any connection with the so-called “war on terrorism.”

Senator Kerry was a strong supporter of the Bush Administration’s bombing campaign of Afghanistan, which resulted in more civilian deaths than the 9/11 attacks against the United States that prompted them. He also defended the Clinton Administration’s bombing of a pharmaceutical plant in Sudan which had provided that impoverished African country with more than half of its antibiotics and vaccines by falsely claiming it was a chemical weapons factory controlled by Osama bin Laden.

In late 1998, he joined Republican Senators Jesse Helms, Strom Thurmond, Alfonse D’Amato, and Rich Santorum in calling on the Clinton Administration to consider launching air and missile strikes against Iraq in order to “respond effectively to the threat posed by Iraq’s refusal to end its weapons of mass destruction programs.” The fact that Iraq had already ended such programs some years earlier was apparently not a concern to Senator Kerry.

Nor was he at all bothered that a number of U.S. allies in the region actually did have such weapons. To this day, Senator Kerry has rejected calls by Jordan, Syria, and other Middle Eastern governments for a WMD-free zone for the entire region, insisting that the United States has the right to say which countries can possess such weapons and which cannot. He was a co-sponsor of the “Syrian Accountability Act,” passed in November, which demanded under threat of sanctions that Syria unilaterally eliminate its chemical weapons and missile systems, despite the fact that nearby U.S. allies like Israel and Egypt had far larger and more advanced stockpiles of WMDs and missiles, including in Israel’s case hundreds of nuclear weapons. (See my October 30 article, “The Syrian Accountability Act and the Triumph of Hegemony” )

Included in the bill’s “findings” were charges by top Bush Administration officials of Syrian support for international terrorism and development of dangerous WMD programs. Not only have these accusations not been independently confirmed, but they were made by the same Bush Administration officials who had made similar claims against Iraq that had been proven false. Yet Senator Kerry naively trusts their word over independent strategic analysts familiar with the region who have challenged many of these charges.

Kerry’s bill also calls for strict sanctions against Syria as well as Syria’s expulsion from its non-permanent seat Security Council for its failure to withdraw its forces from Lebanon according to UN Security Council resolution 520. This could hardly be considered a principled position, however, since Kerry defended Israel’s 22-year long occupation of southern Lebanon, that finally ended less than four years ago, and which was in defiance of this and nine other UN Security Council resolutions.

Indeed, perhaps the most telling examples of Kerry’s neo-conservative world view is his outspoken support of the government of right-wing Israeli prime minister Ariel Sharon, annually voting to send billions of dollars worth of taxpayer money to support Sharon’s occupation and colonization of Palestinian lands seized in the 1967 war. Even as the Israeli prime minister continues to reject calls by Palestinian leaders for a resumption of peace talks, Kerry insists that it is the Palestinian leadership which is responsible for the conflict while Sharon is “a leader who can take steps for peace.”

Despite the UN Charter forbidding countries from expanding their territory by force and the passage, with U.S. support, of a series of UN Security Council resolutions calling on Israel to rescind its unilateral annexation of occupied Arab East Jerusalem and surrounding areas, Kerry has long fought for U.S. recognition of the Israeli conquest. He even attacked the senior Bush Administration from the right when it raised concerns regarding the construction of illegal Israeli settlements in occupied Palestinian territory, going on record, paradoxically, that “such concerns inhibit and complicate the search for a lasting peace in the region.” He was also critical of the senior Bush Administration’s refusal to veto UN Security Council resolutions upholding the Fourth Geneva Conventions and other international legal principles regarding Israeli colonization efforts in the occupied Palestinian territories.

Kerry’s extreme anti-Palestinian positions have bordered on pathological. In 1988, when the PLO which administered the health system in Palestinian refugee camps serving hundreds of thousands of people and already had observer status at the United Nations sought to join the UN’s World Health Organization, Kerry backed legislation that would have ceased all U.S. funding to the WHO or any other UN entity that allowed for full Palestinian membership. Given that the United States then provided for a full one-quarter of the WHO’s budget, such a cutoff would have had a disastrous impact on vaccination efforts, oral re-hydration programs, AIDS prevention, and other vital WHO work in developing countries.

The following year, just four days after Israeli Prime Minister Yitzhak Shamir restated that Israel would never give up the West Bank and Gaza Strip and would continued to encourage the construction of new Israeli settlements on occupied Palestinian land, Kerry signed a statement that appeared in the Washington Post praising the right-wing prime minister for his “willingness to allow all options to be put on the table.” Kerry described Shamir’s proposal for Israeli-managed elections in certain Palestinian areas under Israeli military occupation as “sincere and far-reaching” and called on the Bush Administration to give Shamir’s plan its “strong endorsement.” This was widely interpreted as a challenge to Secretary of State James Baker’s call several weeks earlier for the Likud government to give up on the idea of a “greater Israel.”

In his effort to enhance Shamir’s re-election prospects in 1992, Senator Kerry again criticized the senior President Bush from the right, this time for its decision to withhold a proposed $10 billion loan guarantee in protest of the rightist prime minister’s expansion of illegal Jewish settlements in the occupied territories.

The administration’s decision to hold back on the loan guarantees until after the election made possible the defeat of Shamir by the more moderate Yitzhak Rabin. However, when the new Israeli prime minister went to Norway during the summer of 1993 to negotiate with the Palestine Liberation Organization for a peace plan, Kerry joined the Israeli right in continuing to oppose any peace talks between Israel and the PLO.

Indeed, for most of his Senate career, Kerry was in opposition of the Palestinians’ very right to statehood. As recently as 1999, he went on record opposing Palestinian independence outside of what the Israeli occupation authorities were willing to allow.

Today, Kerry not only defends Israel’s military occupation of the West Bank and Gaza Strip, he has backed Sharon’s policies of utilizing death squads against suspected Palestinian militants. He claims that such tactics are a justifiable response to terrorist attacks by extremists from the Islamic groups Hamas and Islamic Jihad, even though neither of them existed prior to Israel’s 1967 military conquests and both emerged as a direct outgrowth of the U.S.-backed occupation and repression that followed.

In summary, Kerry’s October 2002 vote to authorize the U.S. invasion of Iraq was no fluke. His contempt for human rights, international law, arms control, and the United Nations has actually been rather consistent.


When Howard Dean initially surged ahead in the polls in the race for the Democratic presidential nomination, in large part due to his forceful opposition to the invasion of Iraq and some other aspects of Bush foreign policy, the Kerry campaign launched a series of vicious attacks against the former Vermont governor.

Dean was certainly no left-winger. His foreign policy advisors were largely from mainstream think tanks and he received the endorsements of former vice-president Al Gore and others in the Democratic Party establishment. Indeed, a number of Dean’s positions such as his refusal to call for a reduction in military spending, his support for the war in Afghanistan, his backing unconditional military and economic aid to Sharon’s government in Israel, and his call for continuing the U.S. occupation of Iraq were quite problematic in the eyes of many peace and human rights advocates.

That was not enough for Senator Kerry, however, who apparently believed that Dean was not sufficiently supportive of President George W. Bush’s imperial world view. Kerry and his supporters roundly criticized Dean for minimizing the impact of Saddam Hussein’s capture on Iraqi resistance to the U.S. occupation, for calling on the United States to play a more even-handed role in the Israeli-Palestinian peace process, and for challenging the Bush Doctrine of unilateral preemptive invasions of foreign countries. (See my September 14 article “Kerry, Lieberman, and the House Democratic Leadership Attack Dean” and my January 7 article “Democrats’ Attacks on Dean Enhance Bush’s Re-election Prospects” )

It was just such attacks that helped derailed Dean’s populist campaign and has made John Kerry the presumptive nominee.

The Democrats are wrong, however, if they think that nominating a Bush Lite will increase their party’s chances of capturing the White House. In all likelihood, it will do the opposite: for every hawk who might now consider voting for the Democratic ticket, there will be at least one dove who will now be more likely to vote for Ralph Nader.
 
Back
Top