the_guy222
First time out of the vault
Fallout timeline divergence and effect on technology and military history
I have tried to piece some things together as how our idea of the Fallout P.O.D. around the transistor in the late 1940s might have worked out in terms of weapons development and such.
If no transistor (we assume it was not developed or it was halted somehow)
=no guided ICBMs (unless they are guided by computers from the launch site/submarine or if they use some kind of gyroscope. I assume we are talking about less accuracy here.)
(note that if SLBMs require computer guidance, that might explain how the Chinese submarine crew was able to assemble a computer in San Francisco)
=no transistors also hurts the development of anti-aircraft missiles.
=with less-effective anti-aircraft missiles, we see continued dominance of fast bombers, fighters, and interceptors
=if missiles are guided by wire or signal, aircraft may need to carry signal-jamming equipment on them
Aircraft Development
Aircraft like the B-58 Hustler would not be cancelled, and would be developed further since guided missiles posed less of a threat.
http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/3/35/B-58_Hustler.jpg
http://www.aviation-history.com/convair/b58-4.gif
B-52-type aircraft could be nuclear powered, loiter for long period of time, with many stores aboard, and be heavily armoured and armed. They would need very long runways, though. Perhaps even rocket assist.
The B-36 is a great place to start
http://www.subversiveinfluence.com/images/blogposts/b36-peacemaker.jpg
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Convair_B-36#Experiments
http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/5/58/NB36H-2.jpg [nuclear-powered]
Maybe some simple jet ground-attack fighters were designed in the late stages of the war with China for mass use, requiring little cost or build-time, easy maintenance, easy replacement, and little training. That would explain the aircraft seen in the Fallout opening screen.
It kind of reminds me of the B-57
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/B-57_Canberra
Maybe the Avrocar would be developed as an anti-tank vehicle, as originally envisioned by the military. That would explain its presence in the user mod BGE.
Space Race
The lack of transistors also dramatically changes the space race
An orbital station is possible [intelligence satellites need transistors to work at the size and power level that they do, but an orbital station works without transistors - you just need guys with radar and telescopes]
The U.S. originally planned to build an orbital observation station, but sophisticated satellites rendered that idea obsolete.
See these real-life planned Fallout-y stations:
http://www.astronautix.com/craft/outpost.htm
http://www.astronautix.com/craft/lorl.htm (docked with a winged, manned spacecraft of the type you would want to use if you did not have much computer guidance)
Less Fallout-y but still cool-looking and simple:
http://www.astronautix.com/craft/location.htm
http://www.astronautix.com/craft/spaation.htm
It's also helpful to review the space thinking of the late 1950s
http://www.astronautix.com/articles/prorizon.htm
See especially:
1950s Project Horizon
http://www.astronautix.com/articles/prorizon.htm
[includes nuclear rocket taking off from the moon]
The space race in the Fallout timeline probably consisted of attempts at spy satellites and orbital stations. High-altitude rocket aircraft probably reached space before ballistic capsules,* maybe they were even evolved into personnel-transfer orbital spacecraft. Without transistors, it will take longer to get the technology to get a man into orbit and returned safely, and there will be less incentive if satellites can drop photo packages.
*http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/X-15
http://www.astronautix.com/craft/x15b.htm
It should be noted that Eisenhower's space plan was much more conservative than Kennedy's. Kennedy wanted a man on the moon by 1969. Eisenhower wanted iterative developments, from satellites to manned spacecraft to orbital stations, which then might be used to co-ordinate a moon mission. It would have taken longer, but it might have led to a more solid foundation for a manned (perhaps military) presence in space.
The USAF might have controlled the space program, instead of NASA. It might have been a military, and not a civilian program.
Von Braun's plans included feasable rockets. Using pre-transistor technology, a capable space program could have existed, just costing more and taking longer
http://www.astronautix.com/lvfam/vonbraun.htm
Also note that without transistors, the microchip, microcomputers, etc..., research in general may be slower and more iterative instead of revolutionary and sweeping. That could explain the survival of 1950s-type concepts, using more advanced tech.
Isolationism and containment
With no transistors, maybe the conservative strategy of strangling the Soviet Union over time through military competition while waiting it out in America prevails over the U2/SAM/ICBM Cuban Missile Crisis and Vietnam interventionism of the 1960s.
No Vietnam
=no accelerated development of the M-16. (The M-16 was originally developed from the .308 AR-10, but as a result of caliber studies, it was scaled down into the .223 M-16, originally intended to equip small-statured foreign allies, and guard Air Force installations.) Maybe, in the Fallout timeline, the AR-10 is used by the Air Force (it is not scaled down by the small caliber study), and is later replaced by the AR-15. The AR-15 (with wood stock!) is later sold to civilians with the standard 10-round magazine, becoming the "Hunting Rifle". None of the AR variants use a forward-assist, since that was a Vietnam-derived development.
To show you what I am talking about, take a look at the 1950s AR-10
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/AR-10
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Image:Ar-10.jpg
http://lib.irismedia.org/sait/guns/assault/ar10s.jpg
http://www.sportschutter.nl/AI-AR10-1.jpg
Now look at a wood-stocked AR-15
http://www.lakesideguns.com/title1/indxlm7wlnt550.jpg
Now look at the Fallout Hunting Rifle
http://images2.wikia.nocookie.net/fallout/images//4/41/Huntingrifle.gif
But let's get serious. The conservative military brass in our time line favoured the M-14, because it was a conservative iteration of the M-1 Garand.
Without Vietnam, it is possible that this rifle would have soldiered on as the U.S. army Main Battle Rifle well into the 1970s or even 1980s, as the FAL did in many Western countries.
The M-14 representated conservative 1950s thinking more than any other main battle rifle adopted in large-scale of its time.
Also, note the SAW version of the M-14 and its Fallout-yness
http://world.guns.ru/assault/m14a1.jpg
As laser or caseless weapons, or whatever energy and exotic weapons were being developed after the 1980s, the M-14 and its derivatives would have been relegated to reserve status, and then maybe even surplused.
(In a sense, it was Robert McNamara who forced the M-16 on the U.S. army during Vietnam. Without that occuring, the army brass would get its way and hold on to the M-14 for a longer period of time.)
Also, if we assume that the government gets its way where it did not in our timeline, we get the 10mm.
The FBI wanted to adopt the 10mm after a famous shootout in which its 9mm handguns were deemed insufficient (in the isolationist Fallout universe, it is unlikely that U.S. agencies would have adopted the European 9mm in the first place, and the lack of 9mm handguns and other weapons is something evidenced in both Fallout games.)
In our timeline, the FBI was forced to abandon the 10mm because its recoil was too much for small-statured officers. In the more conservative, M-14 loving timeline of Fallout, more power is better, and the FBI would have not abandoned the 10mm. Hence the designs from Fallout which we all know and love.
Submachineguns might have remained in use for a much longer time in the United States, if they stuck with the M-14. The M-14 is simply too big and too long for use in close-quarters. The Thompson might have been retained, as well as the M-3. Notably, the M-3 could also be new-built in the wastes, given its simplicity. The Uzi was developed around the time of Fallout's P.O.D., and could have made an appearance as the Mac-10, the logical American development of the Uzi. Here is a photograph of a wood-stocked Uzi
http://files.uzitalk.com/reference/shoots/uzitalk2005/Vector UZI wood.jpg
The 1950s brought some innovation in submachinegun design, producing some very Fallout-y weapons.
Beretta Model 12
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bhgY-d4Hl9k
Sig MP310
http://www.probertencyclopaedia.com/j/SIG MP 310.jpg
Sola-Super
http://bp2.blogger.com/_gs48bZAPmBc/R0b9CBGuc3I/AAAAAAAAAAQ/2FYj-DVPpHo/s1600-h/sola+super.jpg
See also this SMG from the 1930s
http://www.securityarms.com/20010315/galleryfiles/3200/3258.htm
Here are some guesses for production
Last new production
M-14 (and derivatives) 1977
Civilian production of semi-auto M-14s, and perhaps .308 Garands (since so many were surplused) may not have ended until 2020
1950s-based submachinegun 1963
AR-based hunting rifle - civilian distribution began in 1975, and it did not stop production until halted by the nuclear war
10mm firearms were introduced in the 1980s and became standard for nearly a century
The 5mm Assault Rifles were imported after the USSR's collapse, and possibly began production in the U.S. in the late 1990s (similar to the AK binge in the U.S. that began after 1992)
14mm was probably introduced as a recreational caliber (similar to .50 AE) circa 2000
Conclusion
Aircraft would have resembled the 1950s vision of the future - fast, high-altitude jet bombers, long-range, heavy, loitering B-36/B-52 type bombers, and fast jet interceptors and fighters. Also, slower, ground-attack jets mass produced for the war with China are entirely reasonable.
We can still have a space race, but they are 'dumb' rockets and spacecraft, receiving guidance signals from below, and/or being manually piloted to their destinations. Unless the space race is highly funded, it is unlikely that man walks on the moon by 1969. However, a more consistent capital outlay over time might lead to an orbital presence, maybe even a moon base. Light, winged shuttles or winged capsules might predominate over the "spam-in-a-can" computerized ballistic capsules of our timeline.
Spying with telescopes from above, and storing nuclear weapons, leads to a great incentive for a manned orbital station. Perhaps Van Buren's B.O.M.B. was not so outrageous after all. Lack of transistors dramatically increases the incentive for a manned orbital presence.
http://antwrp.gsfc.nasa.gov/apod/image/vonb_wheel.gif
http://www.geocities.com/duppim/a12b.jpg
http://history.msfc.nasa.gov/rocketry/images/32.gif
Firearms would have remained conservative in development, with the army centering around the M-14. The Armalite family might have diffused to civilians starting in the 1970s or so, becoming adopted by many farmers for varmiting and hunting. 10mm would have taken off beginning in the 1980s to become the standard pistol caliber, replacing the .45 ACP. Macho attitudes would favour the .44 magnum and 14mm pistol as well. Shotgun development is handled well in Fallout, so it was not discussed here, but it would have been reasonable to include a wood-stocked Remington 870 or Winchester 1300.*
*http://black-guns.com/870SBS Wood.jpg
http://astorarms.ca/images/non-restricted/remington 870 12ga aaaaa.jpg
http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/en/6/67/Winchester_Model_1912.JPG
Bonus:
http://www.paleofuture.com/2007/11/cars-detroit-forgot-to-build-1950-1960.html
http://www.paleofuture.com/2008/06/nuclear-rocketship-1959.html
http://www.paleofuture.com/2008/06/wernher-von-brauns-blueprint-for-space.html
I have tried to piece some things together as how our idea of the Fallout P.O.D. around the transistor in the late 1940s might have worked out in terms of weapons development and such.
If no transistor (we assume it was not developed or it was halted somehow)
=no guided ICBMs (unless they are guided by computers from the launch site/submarine or if they use some kind of gyroscope. I assume we are talking about less accuracy here.)
(note that if SLBMs require computer guidance, that might explain how the Chinese submarine crew was able to assemble a computer in San Francisco)
=no transistors also hurts the development of anti-aircraft missiles.
=with less-effective anti-aircraft missiles, we see continued dominance of fast bombers, fighters, and interceptors
=if missiles are guided by wire or signal, aircraft may need to carry signal-jamming equipment on them
Aircraft Development
Aircraft like the B-58 Hustler would not be cancelled, and would be developed further since guided missiles posed less of a threat.
http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/3/35/B-58_Hustler.jpg
http://www.aviation-history.com/convair/b58-4.gif
B-52-type aircraft could be nuclear powered, loiter for long period of time, with many stores aboard, and be heavily armoured and armed. They would need very long runways, though. Perhaps even rocket assist.
The B-36 is a great place to start
http://www.subversiveinfluence.com/images/blogposts/b36-peacemaker.jpg
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Convair_B-36#Experiments
http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/5/58/NB36H-2.jpg [nuclear-powered]
Maybe some simple jet ground-attack fighters were designed in the late stages of the war with China for mass use, requiring little cost or build-time, easy maintenance, easy replacement, and little training. That would explain the aircraft seen in the Fallout opening screen.
It kind of reminds me of the B-57
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/B-57_Canberra
Maybe the Avrocar would be developed as an anti-tank vehicle, as originally envisioned by the military. That would explain its presence in the user mod BGE.
Space Race
The lack of transistors also dramatically changes the space race
An orbital station is possible [intelligence satellites need transistors to work at the size and power level that they do, but an orbital station works without transistors - you just need guys with radar and telescopes]
The U.S. originally planned to build an orbital observation station, but sophisticated satellites rendered that idea obsolete.
See these real-life planned Fallout-y stations:
http://www.astronautix.com/craft/outpost.htm
http://www.astronautix.com/craft/lorl.htm (docked with a winged, manned spacecraft of the type you would want to use if you did not have much computer guidance)
Less Fallout-y but still cool-looking and simple:
http://www.astronautix.com/craft/location.htm
http://www.astronautix.com/craft/spaation.htm
It's also helpful to review the space thinking of the late 1950s
http://www.astronautix.com/articles/prorizon.htm
See especially:
1950s Project Horizon
http://www.astronautix.com/articles/prorizon.htm
[includes nuclear rocket taking off from the moon]
The space race in the Fallout timeline probably consisted of attempts at spy satellites and orbital stations. High-altitude rocket aircraft probably reached space before ballistic capsules,* maybe they were even evolved into personnel-transfer orbital spacecraft. Without transistors, it will take longer to get the technology to get a man into orbit and returned safely, and there will be less incentive if satellites can drop photo packages.
*http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/X-15
http://www.astronautix.com/craft/x15b.htm
It should be noted that Eisenhower's space plan was much more conservative than Kennedy's. Kennedy wanted a man on the moon by 1969. Eisenhower wanted iterative developments, from satellites to manned spacecraft to orbital stations, which then might be used to co-ordinate a moon mission. It would have taken longer, but it might have led to a more solid foundation for a manned (perhaps military) presence in space.
The USAF might have controlled the space program, instead of NASA. It might have been a military, and not a civilian program.
Von Braun's plans included feasable rockets. Using pre-transistor technology, a capable space program could have existed, just costing more and taking longer
http://www.astronautix.com/lvfam/vonbraun.htm
Also note that without transistors, the microchip, microcomputers, etc..., research in general may be slower and more iterative instead of revolutionary and sweeping. That could explain the survival of 1950s-type concepts, using more advanced tech.
Isolationism and containment
With no transistors, maybe the conservative strategy of strangling the Soviet Union over time through military competition while waiting it out in America prevails over the U2/SAM/ICBM Cuban Missile Crisis and Vietnam interventionism of the 1960s.
No Vietnam
=no accelerated development of the M-16. (The M-16 was originally developed from the .308 AR-10, but as a result of caliber studies, it was scaled down into the .223 M-16, originally intended to equip small-statured foreign allies, and guard Air Force installations.) Maybe, in the Fallout timeline, the AR-10 is used by the Air Force (it is not scaled down by the small caliber study), and is later replaced by the AR-15. The AR-15 (with wood stock!) is later sold to civilians with the standard 10-round magazine, becoming the "Hunting Rifle". None of the AR variants use a forward-assist, since that was a Vietnam-derived development.
To show you what I am talking about, take a look at the 1950s AR-10
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/AR-10
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Image:Ar-10.jpg
http://lib.irismedia.org/sait/guns/assault/ar10s.jpg
http://www.sportschutter.nl/AI-AR10-1.jpg
Now look at a wood-stocked AR-15
http://www.lakesideguns.com/title1/indxlm7wlnt550.jpg
Now look at the Fallout Hunting Rifle
http://images2.wikia.nocookie.net/fallout/images//4/41/Huntingrifle.gif
But let's get serious. The conservative military brass in our time line favoured the M-14, because it was a conservative iteration of the M-1 Garand.
Without Vietnam, it is possible that this rifle would have soldiered on as the U.S. army Main Battle Rifle well into the 1970s or even 1980s, as the FAL did in many Western countries.
The M-14 representated conservative 1950s thinking more than any other main battle rifle adopted in large-scale of its time.
Also, note the SAW version of the M-14 and its Fallout-yness
http://world.guns.ru/assault/m14a1.jpg
As laser or caseless weapons, or whatever energy and exotic weapons were being developed after the 1980s, the M-14 and its derivatives would have been relegated to reserve status, and then maybe even surplused.
(In a sense, it was Robert McNamara who forced the M-16 on the U.S. army during Vietnam. Without that occuring, the army brass would get its way and hold on to the M-14 for a longer period of time.)
Also, if we assume that the government gets its way where it did not in our timeline, we get the 10mm.
The FBI wanted to adopt the 10mm after a famous shootout in which its 9mm handguns were deemed insufficient (in the isolationist Fallout universe, it is unlikely that U.S. agencies would have adopted the European 9mm in the first place, and the lack of 9mm handguns and other weapons is something evidenced in both Fallout games.)
In our timeline, the FBI was forced to abandon the 10mm because its recoil was too much for small-statured officers. In the more conservative, M-14 loving timeline of Fallout, more power is better, and the FBI would have not abandoned the 10mm. Hence the designs from Fallout which we all know and love.
Submachineguns might have remained in use for a much longer time in the United States, if they stuck with the M-14. The M-14 is simply too big and too long for use in close-quarters. The Thompson might have been retained, as well as the M-3. Notably, the M-3 could also be new-built in the wastes, given its simplicity. The Uzi was developed around the time of Fallout's P.O.D., and could have made an appearance as the Mac-10, the logical American development of the Uzi. Here is a photograph of a wood-stocked Uzi
http://files.uzitalk.com/reference/shoots/uzitalk2005/Vector UZI wood.jpg
The 1950s brought some innovation in submachinegun design, producing some very Fallout-y weapons.
Beretta Model 12
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bhgY-d4Hl9k
Sig MP310
http://www.probertencyclopaedia.com/j/SIG MP 310.jpg
Sola-Super
http://bp2.blogger.com/_gs48bZAPmBc/R0b9CBGuc3I/AAAAAAAAAAQ/2FYj-DVPpHo/s1600-h/sola+super.jpg
See also this SMG from the 1930s
http://www.securityarms.com/20010315/galleryfiles/3200/3258.htm
Here are some guesses for production
Last new production
M-14 (and derivatives) 1977
Civilian production of semi-auto M-14s, and perhaps .308 Garands (since so many were surplused) may not have ended until 2020
1950s-based submachinegun 1963
AR-based hunting rifle - civilian distribution began in 1975, and it did not stop production until halted by the nuclear war
10mm firearms were introduced in the 1980s and became standard for nearly a century
The 5mm Assault Rifles were imported after the USSR's collapse, and possibly began production in the U.S. in the late 1990s (similar to the AK binge in the U.S. that began after 1992)
14mm was probably introduced as a recreational caliber (similar to .50 AE) circa 2000
Conclusion
Aircraft would have resembled the 1950s vision of the future - fast, high-altitude jet bombers, long-range, heavy, loitering B-36/B-52 type bombers, and fast jet interceptors and fighters. Also, slower, ground-attack jets mass produced for the war with China are entirely reasonable.
We can still have a space race, but they are 'dumb' rockets and spacecraft, receiving guidance signals from below, and/or being manually piloted to their destinations. Unless the space race is highly funded, it is unlikely that man walks on the moon by 1969. However, a more consistent capital outlay over time might lead to an orbital presence, maybe even a moon base. Light, winged shuttles or winged capsules might predominate over the "spam-in-a-can" computerized ballistic capsules of our timeline.
Spying with telescopes from above, and storing nuclear weapons, leads to a great incentive for a manned orbital station. Perhaps Van Buren's B.O.M.B. was not so outrageous after all. Lack of transistors dramatically increases the incentive for a manned orbital presence.
http://antwrp.gsfc.nasa.gov/apod/image/vonb_wheel.gif
http://www.geocities.com/duppim/a12b.jpg
http://history.msfc.nasa.gov/rocketry/images/32.gif
Firearms would have remained conservative in development, with the army centering around the M-14. The Armalite family might have diffused to civilians starting in the 1970s or so, becoming adopted by many farmers for varmiting and hunting. 10mm would have taken off beginning in the 1980s to become the standard pistol caliber, replacing the .45 ACP. Macho attitudes would favour the .44 magnum and 14mm pistol as well. Shotgun development is handled well in Fallout, so it was not discussed here, but it would have been reasonable to include a wood-stocked Remington 870 or Winchester 1300.*
*http://black-guns.com/870SBS Wood.jpg
http://astorarms.ca/images/non-restricted/remington 870 12ga aaaaa.jpg
http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/en/6/67/Winchester_Model_1912.JPG
Bonus:
http://www.paleofuture.com/2007/11/cars-detroit-forgot-to-build-1950-1960.html
http://www.paleofuture.com/2008/06/nuclear-rocketship-1959.html
http://www.paleofuture.com/2008/06/wernher-von-brauns-blueprint-for-space.html
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! New rank 
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