First important election in 2012

[Starseeker]

The Taiwanese Presidential Election goes off on the Jan. 14, which is the starting gun of all the important elections in 2012.

http://www.theaustralian.com.au/new...n-elections-loom/story-e6frg6so-1226238529996

President Ma Ying-jeou vulnerable as Taiwan elections loom

by: Rowan Callick
From: The Australian
January 07, 2012 12:00AM

THE world's first important elections this year take place next Saturday.

The outcome matters less than the fact they are taking place at all, for the presidential and parliamentary elections in Taiwan comprise the pinnacle of democratic process in the Chinese-speaking world.

The results will affect the less public transition in October to a new leadership in the People's Republic of China, where the Communist Party power groups, led by the People's Liberation Army, maintain an intense interest in the long game of bringing - returning, they would say - Taiwan under Chinese sovereignty.

The presidential contest has every sign of running right down to the line. The incumbent, centre-right Kuomintang (KMT, Nationalist) leader Ma Ying-jeou, is in most polls rating just above 40 per cent, with his chief opponent Tsai Ing-wen, leader of the centre-left Democratic Progressive Party, in the mid-30s, while veteran James Soong, founder of the right-leaning People First Party, has about 6 per cent.

At the last election, Ma won comfortably, by 2.2 million votes out of 13 million cast, with 58.5 per cent of the total, against the DPP's Frank Hsieh, who was burdened by voters' fatigue after the DPP's eight years in power under president Chen Shui-bian. The latter was already clouded by graft charges and has since been jailed.

Last time, 76 per cent of 17.3 million eligible voters turned out. Next Saturday, the likeable Ma faces a more formidable opponent in Tsai, the first woman candidate for the top job, and one who shares a remarkably similar profile. Both are from well-off "mainland" families, both are comparatively wealthy, both were educated at top Western universities - Tsai with a master's from Cornell and a doctorate from the London School of Economics, Ma with a master's from New York University and a doctorate from Harvard.

President Ma has a lot of similarity with President Obama. They both won by a landslide after 8 years of contentious opposition rule, and they are both facing stiff competition after said popularity wanes with parts of population moves on to skepticism.

As for Taiwan itself, it is ironic that the only democratic country in the Chinese speaking world has less support diplomatically than than a communist one, but that's another topic all together. As election goes, what does this mean for the rest of the world if either wins or loses? (Taiwan also has one of the highest voting rates among the democratic world. In my understanding, higher voting rates decrease the chances of voting blocks and special interest groups gaining special political clouts or favours)

The Candidates:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Republic_of_China_presidential_election,_2012

As for what the issues are and why it might be important to the west, I found an interesting report from CSIS:

http://csis.org/files/publication/111114_Glaser_Taiwan2012_WEB.pdf

And last but not least, a very, very interesting analysis of the Taiwanese situation I found by accident from a very unlikely source, Turkish Weekly:

http://www.turkishweekly.net/news/129504/-analysis-taiwanís-presidential-elections-and-turkey.html

He made some intriguing comparisons between Turkey and Taiwan, and used some very concise words to present the Taiwan situation and its march to Democracy. As he said, Taiwanese democracy is remarkable in the sense that there were no equivalent of Arab Springs and military uprisings in its process. I don't know if the situation is unique but it is a sharp contrast to the Arab Springs movement.

We shall see the election result in a week, would this result be a forecast of things to come in the US, as the war drums of Republican nomination beats, only time will tell.

Finally a decent write up by the times:

http://www.time.com/time/magazine/article/0,9171,2103707-1,00.html

Neither Independence nor Unification
By Zoher Abdoolcarim Thursday, Jan. 12, 2012

When I was in Taipei recently to talk to Taiwan President Ma Ying-jeou and his chief rival, Tsai Ing-wen, about their prospects in the island's Jan. 14 elections, I dropped by the elegantly understated Fine Arts Museum. It was showing works by the global Chinese icon Ai Weiwei. All his signature pieces and installations so celebrated worldwide were on display: the bronze Circle of Animals/Zodiac Heads, the Coca-Cola urn, the catholic portraiture, an upgraded (specially for Taipei) Forever Bicycles.

To spotlight Ai's inability to attend, the exhibition was called "Ai Weiwei absent." Ai has become one of Beijing's public enemies for his outspokenness about what's wrong with China: he was jailed for nearly three months last year. Once, Ai was a darling of the Chinese establishment, but now it's inconceivable that any Ai event would be allowed in China or its supposedly autonomous satellites Hong Kong and Macau. Taiwan, which mainland China claims as part of the People's Republic, stands apart. That Ai's art has found a home — indeed, a refuge — on the island precisely during its intense election season makes total sense: Ai has an independent spirit, and so does Taiwan. (Read excerpts from TIME's exclusive interviews with Taiwan's presidential hopefuls.)

There's another parallel. Also like Ai, Taiwan is caged. The People's Republic insists that it is the "one China," and most governments and multilateral institutions comply. As a consequence, Taiwan is not acknowledged as a sovereign entity, operates in deeply restricted international space and is often underrated or simply off the world's radar. Yet Taiwan's coming contests for the presidency and the legislature — the first of some two dozen elections taking place worldwide in 2012 — remind us that this small island matters big time to the global community.

Economically, Taiwan punches above its weight. Its IT industries, for example, rank among the biggest anywhere, as does its hoard of foreign-exchange reserves. Geopolitically, it is a perennial potential flash point. For the Chinese leadership and most mainland Chinese, Taiwan is a charged issue. Beijing has labeled Taiwan a renegade province that one day must return to the motherland, by force if necessary. (By some estimates, China has as many as 2,000 missiles locked and aimed at Taiwan.) Washington, through Congress's 1979 Taiwan Relations Act, is obliged to help arm the island. Whenever the U.S. sells Taipei military hardware, especially warplanes, China vehemently protests the action as interference in its internal affairs. Conflict over Taiwan between the two powers, while improbable, cannot be ruled out. (Read "How Will China React to U.S. Arms Deal with Taiwan?")

There's a more crucial, cosmic element to Taiwan. It is worth defending, if not as a territory, then as an idea: that freedom is compatible with the Chinese world. Taiwan could do a better job strengthening rule of law and fighting corruption. But in many stellar ways, it is the un-China: a vigorous democracy; an alternative fount of Chinese language and culture; an arena of fiercely competitive (and partisan) media; a crucible of creativity (tech, film, food); a haven of environmental consciousness (you'll find recycling bins on remote hilltops). Heck, even the people are nicer — literally a civil society. China has muscle; Taiwan has soul. It's the true people's republic.

Taiwan's voice, particularly during elections, is strong enough to reverberate even on the mainland. The islanders take politics very seriously — it seems to suffuse their lives — because they know their votes really count. In the presidential contest, the 99% figure a great deal: Tsai and her opposition Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) accuse Ma and his ruling Kuomintang (KMT) of pandering to Big Business and ignoring income inequality. But beyond livelihood issues, the giant shadow of the mainland looms largest. The elections are, in truth, a referendum on China.

 

[Cimmerian Nights]

First thing that came to my mind:

If he has horns and a tail, so long as Chiang is anti-Communist, we should help him.

Or was that Gregory Peck?

Kuomintang is still around, huh? That must really piss of the PRC.

 

[Yoshi525]

Good read!

I don't know a great deal about the politics in question; I've always assumed (perhaps wrongly) that at some point in the future, China will attempt a strong military action to force union. As far as I can tell, China's entire naval policy is based around the future invasion of Taiwan, and the ability to counter the threat of one of more US navy battle groups. Whilst I doubt an invasion would even lead to a China-US conflict, China certainly seems to be preparing for that possibility (or as with many things in politics, perhaps the main objective is the threat of such an action, rather than the action itself, which would (in the current climate) be disastrous for all parties concerned).

Obviously the PRC's navy is currently no match for the US's - even a single Nimitz class based battle group would be capable of destroying the entire Chinese navy - even with massive air force and missile support, China wouldn't stand a chance in hell of forcing the strait if a US task force, consisting of say three battle groups was present. China is however gradually narrowing the gap, and seems to be increasingly determined to create a blue water fleet. (Long way to go though).

Reading the CSIS report, it intrigues me that Taiwan are only *considering* the future purchase of F-35's! Considering the vast modernizations the Chinese airforce will undergo in the next decade (it's probably fair to assumed that even the most recent F-16 variants will be of little use against J-20's), it would seem sensible to acquire 5th generation fighters (preferably F-22, though the PRC would do it's nut if the US actually provided them!) asap. Then again I suppose when billion dollar questions of military expenditure are asked, practical scenarios have to be considered - will a war occur anytime soon (if ever)? Probably not. Would Taiwan, even with comparable fighter tech be able to resist the PRC alone? Definitely not.

 

[Starseeker]

Well, let me post the results first, before I answer your questions Yoshi.

http://news.nationalpost.com/2012/01/14/ma-ying-jeou-wins-second-term-in-taiwan-election/

Taiwan voters re-elected incumbent President Ma Ying-jeou on Saturday, endorsing his push for closer ties with Beijing and removing a potential irritant in Sino-U.S. relations as those two powers head for a year of political transition.
The election had been expected to be tight, but the Central Election Commission said the Nationalist Party’s Ma Ying-jeou won about 51.6 percent of the vote versus about 45.6 percent for Tsai Ing-wen of the opposition Democratic Progressive Party (DPP).
“In the next four years, cross-strait relations will be more peaceful, with greater mutual trust and the chance of conflict will be less,” Ma, 61, told thousands of his supporters, many clapping, waving red and blue Taiwan flags and cheering in the pouring rain outside the party headquarters in downtown Taipei.

There were plenty of American interest in the election, especially those in the Silicon Valley, seeing as most gadgets people own these days are made by Taiwanese companies.

http://www.mercurynews.com/top-stories/ci_19744230

Taiwan's presidential election draws intense interest in Silicon Valley


The re-election of Taiwan President Ma Ying-jeou may have occurred 6,000 miles across the Pacific on Saturday, but the hard-fought contest was closely followed by the Bay Area's large Taiwanese community and Silicon Valley's tech industry, which relies on the island as a critical partner.
Many Taiwanese-Americans stayed up all night watching nonstop broadcasts from Taiwan on their televisions or the Web. They also followed the campaign of Ma, a member of the Kuomintang party who ran on his success at forging tighter economic ties between China and Taiwan, and Tsai Ing-wen, who represents the Democratic Progressive Party, which traditionally has favored independence from China. Tsai campaigned in Silicon Valley in September.
At the Cupertino Village shopping center Saturday morning, shoppers picked up fresh copies of the Millbrae-based World Journal, a Chinese-language newspaper, with Ma's face filling the front page.
Bay Area residents from China also had a keen interest in the election, too. Qi Jin, an engineer who is a native of the mainland, said he disapproves of friction between Taiwan and China.
"When we stand together, you can't tell who is from the mainland and who is from Taiwan," he said. "We share the same culture. I think 100 years from now, this will be solved."
Lieh Oung, of Sunnyvale, a retired executive who favors neither Taiwanese party, said the election was less about relations with China than economic
concerns.
"It was about the pocketbook -- will I have money in my pocket? Can I send my kids to college? It's universal," she said. "Most elections are determined by swing voters."
The election will have ramifications across the globe. The outcome was watched closely by Washington and Beijing, which claims the robust democracy as one of its provinces and has threatened force should Taiwan ever declare independence.
The United States, which does not recognize Taiwan as a country, nonetheless is the island's primary supporter. Taiwanese on both sides of the Pacific are split over Taiwan's relationship with China. One party seeks a status-quo relationship, while the other leans toward official independence.
With nearly 75 percent of eligible voters casting ballots -- including thousands of Taiwanese from the Bay Area who flew back for the elections -- Ma won by about 800,000 votes, or 51.6 percent of the electorate, a much smaller margin than his landslide victory four years ago. The results, observers say, reflect the frustrations of many middle-class Taiwanese who are struggling to maintain their standard of living even as other Taiwanese get wealthier.
But they also underscored a pragmatism on the island of 23 million people about the importance of maintaining stable relations with China, the world's second-largest economy and Taiwan's biggest trading partner. Nonetheless, many Taiwanese on both sides of the Pacific do not want to be subsumed by the giant across the strait and remain deeply concerned about China's intentions.
With local Taiwanese consuming every bit of news from the other side of the world, the World Journal staffed its newsroom throughout the night so up-to-date papers would hit newsstands across the Bay Area.
"Tsai Ing-wen didn't lose to Ma Ying-jeou. She lost because of the '1992 consensus,' " said Mei-huey Huang, executive editor of the World Journal, referring to an agreement between China and Taiwan that there is only one China.
For many Taiwanese, the agreement means keeping the status quo. Both sides have operated independently since the Communist forces defeated the Nationalists on the mainland in 1949 and Chiang Kai-shek and his armies retreated to Taiwan.
"It ensures a smoother relationship with China," Huang said. "People know China is an economic power. You simply can't look away from it."
For Silicon Valley, stable relations across the Taiwan Strait is critical. Taiwan companies such as Hon Hai, which assembles gadgets for companies like Apple and Hewlett-Packard in China, are indispensable to the valley's tech industry. Though Taiwanese tech executives are loathe to comment publicly about the island's feisty politics, a number of them, in a plea for continued stability, endorsed Ma.

The president has negotiated a plethora of economic exchanges with China, including direct flights and a free-trade agreement that have poured millions of dollars into Taiwan's economy. In the waning hours of the campaign, the chairwoman of Taiwanese phone-maker HTC, Cher Wang -- speaking partially in the Taiwanese dialect favored by many members of the Democratic Progressive Party -- backed Ma.

Of course, even after he is re-elected, that doesn't mean it's problem free:

http://www.businessweek.com/news/20...autonomy-concerns-as-he-backs-china-ties.html

Jan. 16 (Bloomberg) -- Taiwan President Ma Ying-jeou was re-elected emphasizing his success easing tensions with China. Now comes the hard part: building on those gains in his final four-year term without diluting the island’s autonomy.

After signing economic deals in his first term, Ma will face more difficult issues such as China’s military buildup and Taiwan’s political status with the mainland, which claims sovereignty over the island, said Abe Denmark, a former China desk officer at the U.S. Defense Department.

“There is some concern that the progress between the mainland and Taiwan has been low-hanging fruit,” said Denmark, now with the Washington-based National Bureau of Asian Research. Addressing the military buildup and Taiwan’s status “will be harder for both Taiwan and Beijing.”

Continued success in building links with the mainland keeps the relationship from infecting ties between the U.S. and China, the world’s two biggest economies, and may bolster financial markets as improved relations draw investors. Ma must balance that progress against concerns voiced by the Taiwanese opposition that many of the island’s 23 million people don’t want cooperation with the mainland to infringe on their sovereignty and economy.

Challenge Not Lost

The challenge is not lost on Ma, who told reporters after his rain-soaked Jan. 14 victory speech that he would learn from criticisms leveled by Tsai Ing-wen, the Democratic Progressive Party leader who won more than 45 percent of the vote, that he was moving too fast in seeking closer ties with China. Ma won with 51.6 percent of the vote.

While noting that people “obviously” approve of his cross-strait policy, “that doesn’t mean that I will go even faster,” Ma said. “I will control the pace to make sure people can support it.”

The Democratic Progressive Party accepted Tsai’s resignation today, party spokeswoman Hsu Chia-ching said. Tsai will step down effective March 1, and the party will elect a new leader in May, Hsu said.

Ma’s Kuomintang Party ended a six-decade ban on direct transport links with China after he was elected in 2008, and forged trade and transport agreements with the mainland that boosted two-way trade to $160 billion last year, a 10 percent increase from 2010, according to Chinese customs statistics.

The next four years could see new tariff concessions by the two countries, more free trade agreements between Taiwan and other nations, more Chinese investment in infrastructure, and fewer restrictions on visits by Chinese citizens to Taiwan, Goldman Sachs Group Inc. analyst Shirla Sum wrote in a research note today

And what's a Taiwanese election without some problems:

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/wor...rists-busy-with-Taiwan-election-syndrome.html

Patients included those who were nerve-wracked ahead of Saturday's presidential vote and depressed afterwards, while there were also increases in mood swings, depression and insomnia, according to the United Daily News.

Incumbent Ma Ying-jeou was cheered by huge crowds as he won a comfortable reelection victory on Saturday, while many supporters of his main challenger Tsai Ing-wen were left in tears as she conceded defeat.

Politically overzealous family members who started arguments with relatives or dragged their unwilling kin to election rallies ratcheted up the stress levels, the newspaper said.

Even Korea got interested:

http://english.hani.co.kr/arti/english_edition/e_editorial/514930.html

This approach of economy-first pragmatism between Beijing and Taipei, which places even peace treaty discussions on the back burner, has produced opportunities for mutual prosperity while quieting vivid memories of the protracted and bloody struggle between the Communist Party and the Kuomintang. The environment is so different today that it is impossible to apply the same yardstick, but the election in Taiwan certainly offers a lot to consider for Korea, which implemented the original Sunshine Policy.

Well, win or lose, a democracy is all about election results, and no matter the heartache or jubilation, you forge ahead with what you got. All in all, I think radicalization is not really what swings some people, but who knows, really? I mean, a lot of media pundits have estimated that Tsai would win, so I wonder what they would say now? A lot of fortune tellers also says that there might be a female president in Taiwan's future before the election, well I guess they are out of a job. 75% of the eligible voters voted. When was the last time Canada gets that kind of numbers? No matter what some say, Taiwan has a pretty robust democracy with plenty of participants that care.

And as to your questions, Yoshi, it's not that Taiwan doesn't want to buy the latest and the supposedly greatest, the problem is that China doesn't want to allow it. There has been a lot of demands for F-35s or other 5th generation fighters, especially since a lot of older models used by Taiwan have been literally dropping out of sky even as training planes. Americans don't like to p*ss the mainland Chinese off, and they are probably happy to sell hand me down at exorbitant prices to help balance the defense budget. The same thing happened with Canada and its submarines. The arms dealing between Taiwan and the US is like a delicate waltz with plenty of winking and nudging. Even 30-40 aircraft would mean a huge boost to the to the industry though, so given the economic situation recently, maybe there is a push in that direction.

edit to add:

Given the similarity of the political situation, I wonder if Obama's campaign is watching this.