Albert Cole... I really think he's the original Vault Dweller. So, we know by its memoirs that the Vault Dweller is a male. We have a 50% on Albert and a 50% on Max. Max was that big strong man. Albert, a clever and charismatic son of a bitch. So he went into the wasteland, and for all that he did out there, he was forever changed. In its memoirs is said that "he has changed, the Overseer knew it, and i knew it too". So, who would experiment a greater change, the fighting man or the talker man? He destroyed Mariposa, the Master, saw Ian dying in front of his eyes, visited places like the Glow... In POS, it is said that the Vault Dweller was 27 when he started its quest (POS is not canon, i know, but is a pretty interesting reference, don't you think?).
Also, look at its memoirs. They were written by a man who is smart, not stupid. In the character selection, Max was presented as the big but idiot guy. The Vault Dweller memoirs has pretty interesting writing, so as "even the years couldn't erase the smell of human flesh burning". I don't think a man like Max is able to write something like that. Albert, who was the charism guy, and clever male option, could.
It's a mistery who the Vault Dweller really is. I hope it would be revealed some day.