I'd probably go with your threat assessment overall, which just goes to make Dogmeat all the more special. The wasteland would probably breed a more cunning dog just like it breeds a more cunning thug, though, so there is that to factor in too.
I'd imagine that roving dog packs were one of the scariest things aside from roving human packs in the years after the war. On their own they're smart enough to ambush and even to work as distractions for their fellows, and much like lions, they'd probably have the whole pounce-hamstring-jugular bit down to a science even when hunting alone. In fact, they might be more to contend with alone than they would be traveling with humans-- they'd be much harder to spot, and without a human master to protect they'd probably be smart enough not to bite off more than they could chew unless they were desperate. One of my exes had a dog that knew exactly what a gun was and would automatically start to get all squirrelly and unpredictable in her movements if the barrel was pointed anywhere near her. It was actually kind of impressive, and she learned it without ever having been present firsthand for the discharging of anything more powerful than a pellet gun.
I'd imagine that roving dog packs were one of the scariest things aside from roving human packs in the years after the war. On their own they're smart enough to ambush and even to work as distractions for their fellows, and much like lions, they'd probably have the whole pounce-hamstring-jugular bit down to a science even when hunting alone. In fact, they might be more to contend with alone than they would be traveling with humans-- they'd be much harder to spot, and without a human master to protect they'd probably be smart enough not to bite off more than they could chew unless they were desperate. One of my exes had a dog that knew exactly what a gun was and would automatically start to get all squirrelly and unpredictable in her movements if the barrel was pointed anywhere near her. It was actually kind of impressive, and she learned it without ever having been present firsthand for the discharging of anything more powerful than a pellet gun.