Murder on the Rise-

welsh said:
In this sense I disagree with Bradylama- how can crime- a human behavior- be beyond the control of human beings?

I agree with your position here. However, it's a simple political issue. While human factors may not be beyond human control we may simply not have the resources to make it a reality.

Since I'm up to my gills in the Master Gunner course, I'm going to a parallel from it, and hopefully the example will be clear. You see, one of the (many) things Master Gunner candidates are taught is how to set up ranges for conducting training. I can sit here and list all sorts of training aides, classes that can be taught, etc., etc., ad nauseum that would make for some spectacularly realistic, challenging training. Will I be able to make these things happen when I return to Schweinfurt? Probably not, since there are limits on the amount of equipment available, land, etc., etc. There is also the fact that there are other priorities that my unit has to devote time, energy and other resources to. Everything from ensuring that our equipment is running -- quite a challenge in itself sometimes, considering most of the Bradleys we have are older than their drivers -- to making sure our Sexual Harassment Training is up-to-date.

See where I'm going with this? While the factors that influence the equation may be very human and therefore open to human control they may be beyond or resources to control. If putting more police officers on the street keeps crime down you're still going to have to contend with the fact that when your president launches an invasion of a sovereign nation many of your police are going to get called away because they are members of the Army Reserves or National Guard. Not to mention that if you want your numbers to increase you are going to have to contend with lowered standards.

So basically, it's very likely that we could end up stumbling over that hurdle between possibility and actuality. That hurdle is always a motherfucker...

Bradylama said:
Desensitizing people to violence doesn't eliminate moralistic impressioning...

You should pick up S.L.A. Marshall's Men Against Fire: The
Problem of Battle Command in Future Warfare
. That will introduce you to the issue that the US Army faced in WWII, that only something like 10-15% of its soldiers were actually engaging the enemy in a given engagement. That will then set the stage for the Army's response to the issue, which was sweeping changes in training that included things like the use of pop-up human sillhouettes as opposed to the traditional bulls-eye targets and a host of other things. The end result was that by Vietnam US troops had a 90% firing rate.

So desensitization does play a role in that it makes that trigger easier to pull. Does it automatically override those myriads of moral messages that you've received since you became conscious? No, which is why there's something known variously as Shell Shock, Battle Fatigue, Post-Traumatic Stress Disorder, or Post-Traumatic Stress Syndrome. Which arises partly out of conflicts between two ethical systems and partly because people don't react well when the world turns out to be not quite as Disney-esque as they thought.

Bradylama said:
Just because an impressionable young lad such as myself is maybe more likely to carry out the actions involved in killing another human being doesn't mean that at the core of my reasoning, I understand that what I'm doing is wrong.

If you understand what you're doing is "wrong" -- and I enclose that in quotes to denote that its use is suspicious -- and yet you do it anyway the I'd say that youre training has done a great job of overriding your moral sense. Nicht wahr?

Bradylama said:
Murder is quite often an act of premeditation, and no amount of conditioning regarding imagery is going to change the mind of someone commited to the act.

Someone commited to the act is indeed hard to dissuade. However, you're overlooking the fact that we may very well be able to dissuade someone from becoming commited to the act in the first place, probably by controlling/removing whatever it was that caused that person to become commited. People don't simply wake up one morning and come to the conclusion ex nihilo that they ought to murder someone. Even psychopaths have reason for why they do what they do.

Bradylama said:
...[W]e've always had shitty parents. How do we prevent that?

I've often considered that parents should be licensed. However, there's always one, huge fucking problem with that assertion: what exactlly constitutes a "shitty parent". There are no absolute Virtues, nor any absolute Vices, only what allows something to succeed/fail in given circumstances -- and success and failure are also context-dependent. Then you'll always have that whole issue of "who will keep the keepers" that rears it ugly head in these debates.

John Uskglass said:
People are more then the sum of their media input, surely?

Leave the Strawman at the gates of the Emerald City, okay? He has no place in this thread...

I've never maintained that the media controlled people like some overbearing puppet-master. However, I do maintain that it has an impact. Its influence depends largely on individual character traits and its pervasion of one's environment, but to discount its influence is to discount a large part of what human beings are: gregarious animals.

No matter how old I get I never stop being amazed at what people will do simply for the approval of their peers. Returning to the issue of soldiers' firing rates, it has been shown that soldiers operating crew-served weapons (large guns, machineguns, etc.) having a higher firing rate than those using individual weapons. The reason is pretty simple: they are in close proximity to their peers and there is therefore more pressure not to go against the group's aims -- perceived or real -- not to mention that their higher killing potential means they get more attention from their leaders. (A squad leader is less likely to notice a single rifle that is not firing than the absense of the barking of his "most casualty producing weapon.")

John Uskglass said:
Hope you are not serious (about your definition of a fascist bastard).

I would think that the inclusion of the winking smiley would indicate the tongue-in-cheek nature of that comment. Back when I was in college one my philosophy professors and I used to joke about how anyone to the right of Leon Trotsky/Karl Marx/etc. was a fascist bastard. I'm not serious when I say it, but I think there's something to it...

SuAside said:
all the money syphoned away from the normal day to day lawenforcement to the war on terror probably didnt help much either...

That, and see my comment above about the Reserves/National Guard.
 
zioburosky13 said:
I only believe 'poverty cause crime'. Man will do anything to fullfill their needs. Given that ever since Bush was elected, the economy of USA is getting a hit ever since.

Unemployment is pretty much at the minimal level right now and has been for several months.
 
Sorry that I can't respond to many of the points above but-
On abortion and crime-

http://repositories.cdlib.org/blewp/10/

The Impact of Legalized Abortion on Crime
John J. Donohue , Stanford Law School
Steven D. Levitt, University of Chicago, Department of Economics


Download the Paper (242 K, PDF file) - March 1, 2000 Tell a colleague about it.
Printing Tips: Select 'print as image' in the Acrobat print dialog if you have trouble printing.

ABSTRACT:
We offer evidence that legalized abortion has contributed significantly to recent crime reductions. Crime began to fall roughly 18 years after abortion legalization. The 5 states that allowed abortion in 1970 experienced declines earlier than the rest of the nation, which legalized in 1973 with Roe v. Wade. States with high abortion rates in the 1970s and 1980s experienced greater crime reductions in the 1990s. In high abortion states, only arrests of those born after abortion legalization fall relative to low abortion states. Legalized abortion appears to account for as much as 50 percent of the recent drop in crime.

SUGGESTED CITATION:
John J. Donohue and Steven D. Levitt, "The Impact of Legalized Abortion on Crime " (March 1, 2000). Berkeley Program in Law & Economics, Working Paper Series. Paper 10.
http://repositories.cdlib.org/blewp/10

also -
http://www.publictheologian.com/blog/_archives/2005/7/21/1058502.html
http://chronicle.uchicago.edu/990812/abortion.shtml
http://www.slate.com/id/33569/entry/33571/
 
If you understand what you're doing is "wrong" -- and I enclose that in quotes to denote that its use is suspicious -- and yet you do it anyway the I'd say that youre training has done a great job of overriding your moral sense. Nicht wahr?

That's precisely the point. However, attributing a spike in crime due to the desensitizing affects of mass media still sounds ludicrous to me. You said yourself in your military analogy that engagement had only increased 5%. This isn't even a fair analogy to begin with, since killing somebody you know is far different from killing a stranger you know full well is trying to kill you. Unless that's essentially the nature of gang conflict, it doesn't stand up, which I'm not saying that it isn't.

This kind of increase in murder is still pretty negligible though, so you could be absolutely right. I could see how desensitization would contribute to a spike on this scale.

However, you're overlooking the fact that we may very well be able to dissuade someone from becoming commited to the act in the first place, probably by controlling/removing whatever it was that caused that person to become commited.

Which is again, easier said than done. Determining motive can only be accomplished after-the-fact. Are we supposed to be able to identify troubled relationships and split them up?

However, there's always one, huge fucking problem with that assertion: what exactlly constitutes a "shitty parent".

Precisely what I was going for. The question was rhetorical.
 
Bradylama said:
However, attributing a spike in crime due to the desensitizing affects of mass media still sounds ludicrous to me. You said yourself in your military analogy that engagement had only increased 5%.

Nope, it didn't increase 5%. The firing rate went from 10-15% in WWII to about 35-40% in Korea to 90% in Vietnam, that's a total increase of 75-80%.

Personally, I'm not attributing this crime-spike to desensitization caused by the media. What I'm saying is that it could be a contributing factor, and went on to explain why I say that. Remember all of that stuff about Heraclitus' River?

Bradylama said:
This isn't even a fair analogy to begin with, since killing somebody you know is far different from killing a stranger you know full well is trying to kill you. Unless that's essentially the nature of gang conflict, it doesn't stand up, which I'm not saying that it isn't.

Actually I'd say you have a skewed view of military actions. Soldiers don't run around trying 'full well' to kill each other. They have a surprisingly "live-and-let-live" attitude and will try to duck a fight more often than look for one. If you don't believe that you need to do some serious catching up on combat psychology. Believe me, Hollywood's version is far different from reality.

That, however, is irrelevant. The point is that training and other things can and will desensitize you to killing, which in your previous post you said, "Desensitizing people to violence doesn't eliminate moralistic impressioning," and I attacked that point.

Bradylama said:
Determining motive can only be accomplished after-the-fact. Are we supposed to be able to identify troubled relationships and split them up?

Notice my comments on solutions perhaps being beyond our means, although hypothetically within our ability to control.

While it may not be that we can have roving packs of social workers that automatically seperate persons in relationships that are about to melt-down in a homicidal fashion I bet if you take away economic factors such as unemployment -- and by that I don't mean simply creating more minimum wage jobs -- and you take away a lot of the frictions that can ignite into a homicide.

Bradylama said:
Precisely what I was going for. The question [I guess we'll always have shitty parents] was rhetorical.

No, it wasn't. It wasn't a question at all, but a statement.

OTB
 
Well after years of declines in the US, crime is suddenly back on the rise!
Is it now? I'm not convinced.

So it may appear, but look at the numbers on the side bar of the chart Welsh posted: the highest is only a 5% increase.
Granted, a 55% increase in Omaha is only 11 more murders
This shows one of the biggest problems with crime statistics: they are such low numbers. Recently there was furor in the Canadian newspapers because of an incresed murder rate in Toronto, 7 murders by mid-year. 5 or 6 of these murders were specifically gang related however, so I don't see it as a "crime wave" or social pattern. It's just gang bangers. When we're dealing with such low numbers it is easy for one patterned anomaly to inflate crime figures. While not a social scientist, I don't think these statistics would be accepted as conclusive in any other field - psychology for example.

AMERICANS worry about crime. . . Last year, for example, after a teenager shot dead ten people in and around a Minnesota high school, pollsters asked a sample of Americans how likely it was that a similar massacre might occur in their own town. Nearly three-quarters said it was “very” or “somewhat” likely.

Is anybody else bothered that perceptions are being reported? I see this frequently in newspapers - what Joe C. Average thinks is reported - as if it were a relevant statistic. This is one instance where I think we can all agree that media influence is the most important factor.

In historical studies of crime the question of whether crime was rising or falling is almost never brought up. Aside from the facts that records are spotty, the numbers are even lower than they are today, and that "crime rates" only refers to "percieved/reported crimes," it's just not a very interesting question. The more meaningful questions are who and why?

While I am familiar with the statistics you reported OnTheBounce, I'm not convinced they can be applied to murder rates (as opposed to combat deaths). Keep in mind that one of the factors they introduced to the armed forces was "dehumanizing the enemy" - while we have very strong inhibition towards killing other humans, killing (insert racial slur of your choice here) is as easy as killing an animal.

In gang violence the opposing gang is already "the other," it is not emotionally recognized as human. On top of that, there are personal reasons for killing the opposing gang member - there is already the desire to kill, while for soldiers there is no innate, compelling reason to kill the enemy aside from the fact that he's trying to kill you.

Essentially what I"m saying, is that gang violence is innately desensitized; video games et al. are not needed, the most they'll do is boost it from the Korean number to the Vietnam one.

Now to get back to my first point about the who and the why being more interesting than the how many: the theories being discussed here about possible causes (abortion, release of offenders, Iraq war, etc.) are what you discover from the first two questions. Looking at the individual crimes themselves and making sense of them based upon common characteristics, not numbers. I'm not sure what can really be learned from saying the rates are going up or down.

And besides, while I would be very interested in a study which could link increasing or decreasing crime rates with specific societal factors, I am not convinced that there is anywhere near enough data to actually do this. 90% of statistics are unreliable, after all.
 
Reading this thread got me thinking why a regular, previously not (very) violent man would suddenly commit murder (which is a slightly different issue than gang related murders seeing as how there is an effective way of dealing with gang related crime, i.e. improving social conditions, although my theory applies somewhat to it too). I tried going past all the obvious reasons and the thinking got me to a very strange conclusion which seems kinda logical (if not weird);

I think the rise in the number of "common-man" murders (in the last 50 or so years) is directly connected to the introduction of the perception of being "cool" into our society through mass-media. Crazy, huh? Stay with me.

Being percieved as "cool" (and thusly succesful) in our society has became extremely important, even to the point of becoming more important than being percieved as just or moral.

When a man believes he is being wronged, insulted or humiliated ("He tried to make a foo' out of me, G) he'd rather kill the source of his humiliation than be percieved as weak, humiliated and uncool. Also, let's face it "bustin' a cap in someone's ass" is cooler than "beeing someone's bitch".
 
Nope, it didn't increase 5%. The firing rate went from 10-15% in WWII to about 35-40% in Korea to 90% in Vietnam, that's a total increase of 75-80%.

Sorry, I read that the other way around.

No, it wasn't. It wasn't a question at all, but a statement.

Congratulations, Sherlock. Way to avoid semantics. =/

Your other stuff, though, I can't argue. Too solid.
 
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