Post nuclear economy

SuAside said:
Blakut said:
Well, AFAIK all the money today is backed up somewhere by real gold.
haha, oho, wow...

sorry bud, but most countries departed from the gold standard. while most countries have gold and currency reserves, there is no gold standard anymore.

once upon a time, you could walk to your bank or the federal reserve and demand gold for your money. this is no longer true. they're not required to give you anything at all.

There is no Gold standard since the Great Depression (1929-1930 and onward). After the WW2, Bretton-Woods system was established, USD was backed by gold (see a Bond film with nuclear bomb in Fort Knox), but even US economy wasn't that strong, so since 1972, monetary system has nothing to do with gold.

I don't know about any (common) currency which is not a fiat money (backed by government authority via the central bank or other way). Also, even during the era of Gold standard, you could get gold only for large amounts, e.g. about 1000 Pounds Sterling from Bank of England at the end of 19th century (could be about 7-8 000 pounds, but it's just a wild guess). You could exchange bank notes for gold before gold standard (as you could exchange gold for bank money, bills of exchange, etc.)

This is an interesting problem, what people accept as means of exchange - it may be gold (or silver/copper if their GDP is low), but it can also be cigarettes. Basically anything that can be stored, has a reasonable value and is not too heavy. We have a somewhat complicated explanation in BGE, I won't post it here, but it still has some quirks :-)
 
I don't think cigarettes are a viable form of currency... Anyway, did anybody notice how there are no cigarettes in Fallout? You've got your drugs, booze, radioactive booze, rats'n'shit... But there are no cigarettes. Only Cassidy says something about how'd he love to have a smoke from time to time.
 
Actually, the Water Merchants in FO1 made mention of cigarettes as well. Though I can't say that I remember for certain whether they actually confirmed their existence, I would say that their mention of them (up to the point of even asking if you have any smokes) would indicate the fact that some variant of tobacco survived the apocalypse.

Then there's the bit of Cassidy's dialogue you mentioned. There are other instances, too, I'm sure, even if I can't put my finger on any of them. (I used to be spot-on with this stuff; then again, I used to spend at least 2 hours a day playing FO for no reason other than to document the gameworld.)
 
Congo Levi said:
I don't think cigarettes are a viable form of currency... Anyway, did anybody notice how there are no cigarettes in Fallout? You've got your drugs, booze, radioactive booze, rats'n'shit... But there are no cigarettes. Only Cassidy says something about how'd he love to have a smoke from time to time.

Cigarettes are used in concentration camps, gulags (if you don't want to call them concentration camps too), prisons and sometimes during war too. They are great because you can divide them easily, half of the people want them and they are scarce (you can't produce them at the place).
 
Cigarettes would probably end up a high-end barter item. I expect the first things to have real value will be those that have "street value" - i.e. drugs, guns, etc - things people can't generally loot or produce. Then any kind of fuel. Then as the sources of looting dry up things like canned food, water, medical supplies, smokes, booze, etc. will become big ticket items. Once everything starts to get picked clean, raiding will be an inevitability.

And yeah, guys like Bill Gates probably would try to form their own city-states. I'm going to be cynical again, but at least in the US money pretty much equals power. Those in power - be they government or other - will try very hard to hold onto it. But stockpiles of luxury items like cars and electronics will give way to basic needs and addictions (LOTS of survivors will turn to some kind of self-medication even if they were clean before). By the end of week one, a fancy liquid-plasma TV won't be worth squat beside a bottle of moonshine or a few cans of food. Basically, what we call "wealth" will completely change in definition.

It will come down to who has the ability to produce things other people really need/want, and who is willing to take it from them and how. I figure we'd be back to the rule of the gun in pretty short order.
 
It will come down to who has the ability to produce things other people really need/want, and who is willing to take it from them and how. I figure we'd be back to the rule of the gun in pretty short order.

Hmmm... so my survival plan should be take my friends and some guns and take over the local beer factory... Unfortunately no supply truck will ever come. Unless i trade with the local slave owner farmer.
 
On currency, I think that in the Fallout immediate postwar environment, most everything would be barter. I make this assumption because I think that the war must have wiped out 99% of the population. (That's a seat of the pants figure, just based on how it feels in the 2 games. I lived in California for about 20 years and traveled around quite a bit in that time.) As political entities get set up, some of them would try to adopt currency.

One example is the pre-colonization economy along the Congo river. One powerful coastal area had access to cowrie shells, and these were adopted by their leaders as currency. They traded with tribes further inland for grain, who traded with tribes in the jungle for plantains (bananas) and other fruits and vegetables, who traded with river tribes for dried fish, who traded with tribes in the highlands of copper-rich Katanga for metal implements. The Katanga tribes used copper objects as a kind of currency as well. Throughout this chain, the values of the copper and cowrie currencies varied, but continued to have some value. The big difference is the copper retained more value because it was inherently useful for making things, while the cowries traded far inland were more like fancy beads, mostly good for decoration.

I think the post-nuclear setting all comes down to a spectrum of barter-to-currency, though the games probably don't really allow for this in their programming. Tactics took a shot at a two currency solution, with the Brotherhood using a "scrip" and the wastelanders using ringpulls. There's some threads on it in the Tactics forums.

Workforce

Most people would be involved exclusively in scavenging or growing food for a long time. I think you could only have organized industry once you had a population that was fed, secure, and relatively peaceful...which implies some kind of government, even if it's a kind of self-government.

Agriculture

Agriculture in the US is heavily mechanized, as well as dependent on chemicals (fertilizer etc.) and transportation. Even people living on farms would have to work hard to adapt to a post-nuclear environment. Many of the crops they were used to growing would be impossible to grow without machinery, fertilizer, and pesticides, and what was grown couldn't be processed very well (currently done at plants far away, or near cities). Add in fallout, marauders from cities, and possible climate change (on either a short or long time-scale) and I suspect many people in rural areas would die in the years after the war.

Brahmin ranching would be an inefficient use of resources, but it might be appealing for one of the same reasons it's appealing in the modern economy. Some areas can grow plants used for forage easily, without pesticide, fertilizer, or even irrigation. If there aren't a lot of people around to compete for arable land, then the brahmin can essentially live off of unused (or "waste") land.

Industry

Prewar industry can generally be characterized as consisting of long supply chains, where dozens of separate suppliers and subcontractors make the things that go into something fairly simple. The war in Fallout had to eliminate so many steps in these chains that it is doubtful that most industries could be revived for a long time. If ever. Many might have to be rebuilt from the ground up, partly due to the loss of knowledge of how to make or maintain everything.

Karel's initial comment about people from the 19th century being better off might especially apply to industry. Would having a bunch of non-functional stuff lying around in various states of decay make an industrial revolution take longer? What about the fact that the first industrial revolution, and society's use of resources up through the war in 2077, had made use of many of the most easily obtained raw materials (I'm thinking here of ores and mining) and energy (oil)?

Weapons

I suspect that guns would be pretty available in places outside the US. Some of the survivors of the initial exchange would be military and police personnel, and with a complete breakdown in government and society (not to mention command and control), I suspect they would strap up with all the guns they could find. Eventually, those guns would spread to the survivor population.

Literacy, etc.

Literacy would probably continue to exist in some form as long as people were either a) using written language in their postwar existence or b) trying to use or connect to the prewar world in some way. Taking the Boneyard as an example, I can imagine the Followers being most literate (obviously), followed by the Scavs and the Gunrunners. A few of the miscellaneous Adytowners might have use for reading and writing. I would think literacy among the gangs would be rare.

Again, the level of destruction due to the Great War in Fallout strikes me as being enormous, well beyond what was envisaged by the various kinds of plans put together by cold-war governments.
 
Vault Maker said:
Agriculture in the US is heavily mechanized, as well as dependent on chemicals (fertilizer etc.) and transportation. Even people living on farms would have to work hard to adapt to a post-nuclear environment. Many of the crops they were used to growing would be impossible to grow without machinery, fertilizer, and pesticides, and what was grown couldn't be processed very well (currently done at plants far away, or near cities). Add in fallout, marauders from cities, and possible climate change (on either a short or long time-scale) and I suspect many people in rural areas would die in the years after the war.
The recent craze for organic and locally-grown food makes that less of a problem, as more people are growing crops without artificial fertilizer or pesticides. At the same time, genetically modified crops - hardier, disease-resistant, built-in pesticides – would have a significant advantage. Lack of machinery would definitely be a problem, though.
 
Genetically-modified crops on the Monsanto model, however, are often designed to be reliant on Monsanto-branded fertilizers and pesticides, so you need to keep coming back to the trough, and paying more money to the degenerate microimperialists. Which plays right into...

In the "Better Living Through Chemistry" world of Fallout, this would be just the sort of thing that would have been going on before the war. Perhaps Westek or Poseidon would buy Monsanto?

Some scientists have even described gm foods as sources of an apocalypse, or mutations. Two scenarios:

1.
Imagine a gm soybean able to "infect" non-gm soybean plants, so their seeds would be identical to the gm bean. A good reason to do this is that the company making the (patented) fertilizers, pesticides, or whatever "Premium Bioswill" it happens to be, can now force anyone growing "their" soybeans to pay for the stuff, or the crop dies. Soon, use of these gm products is pervasive. Then, some insect, or mite, or bacteria, mutates to only attack the gm stuff. It spreads rapidly through vast monoculture expanses of industrialized farmland, so fast that nothing can be found to stop it before it ravages the crop worldwide. Perhaps the damage is even caused by a bioengineered weapon, like a New Plague or FEV for plants (and can you really blame sporeplants on FEV?). Mass famine, disease, war, etc. results. I think this scenario is part of why those folks up in Norway started that seed vault:

http://bldgblog.blogspot.com/2007/11/inside-vault.html

2.
This scenario hits inside the body. Monsanto soybeans engineered to survive being sprayed with Roundup pesticide are replaced with beans that actually generate their own pesticide. You eat the stuff and the beans somehow manage to put part of their DNA into some intestinal bacteria. The bacteria start generating pesticide inside your body, slowly poisoning from within.

There will be cries heard from some quarters that this is too modern and "not fifties", but it's still interesting and does play into Fallout's core themes.
 
Economy

Soon before the war, the country money would be the post-war money. People with no clue of what do will probably do what they were doing before the war... But this only few years before the war. And with reasonable people.
 
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