Reprecusions

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Here's what is going to happen.
The US are going to ask for Bin Laden one last time. The moderate parties within Afghanistan will say "What the hell lets just throw him to the dogs," at least thats what they'll say in the eyes of the radical pro-Bin Laden parties no matter how they say it.The Rads (or Probinnies if you like) will get pissed off and the two factions will enter an unstable debate. In the meantime the US will be waiting for a reply that will NEVER come. All we (the Americans) will know in the end is that war was about to break out.
During the debates gunfire goes off someplace in Affie and a civil war will begin. The US will recieve conflicting messages from both sides claiming to be the Moddies and naming the location of Binnie for us to bomb:((undoubtedly lies on both sides).
What the US does during this time will decide the outcome of the war. These are some scenarios:
1. Binnie uses this time to take control of the country if he doesn't already have control.
2. Binnie slips out the back door to Pakistan or Mongolia.
3. The war could spill over to Pakistan or even China possibly.
4. Putin might get pissed about US forces in Russia about to storm Afghanistan and enter the war(Not likely)
5. another thing you gotta remember is that Binnie is an extremely charismatic man and might very well have the hearts of the people, a war against a nation is all together different than a war against a people (ie Vietnam).
6. The US might attack, kill all "Raddies" creating a MILLION martyrs and Bin Laden will still escape to create an even larger more adamant group of terrorists in some other shithole part of the world.
Binnie has probably gone through escape plans a million time in the past twenty years. The only way Affie can hope of catching him is using his own in-Government aides to snare him. We can ONLY hope that Affie will hand him over. If the Moddies are smart they will covertly trap Binnie and hand him over to the US.
 
who the fuck are you man? since when are you the expert at US military operations? How do you know what Bin Laden is gonna do? Bin Laden is sitting on his faggot ass smoking a cigar and watching the news. We need to send a couple SEALS to knock down his door and go to work with a pair of plyers and a blow torch (even if he had NOTHING to do with all this shit).
 
Oh yeah? Try seeing Bin Ladin's view of the situation. If he is guilty then he would probably be cornered to try another move like that and this time we could be talking about Chemical and Biological Warfare. If he is innocent, then backing him into a corner despite his claims to be innocent will only end in more terrorist attacks. Also suppressing Bin Ladin WILL NOT put an end to the terrorism in the Middle East. Religious conflicts have always had the same characteristic: Once you put down the head, another one will replace it.
 
>who the fuck are you man?
> since when are you
>the expert at US military
>operations? How do you
>know what Bin Laden is
>gonna do? Bin Laden
>is sitting on his faggot
>ass smoking a cigar and
>watching the news. We
>need to send a couple
>SEALS to knock down his
>door and go to work
>with a pair of plyers
>and a blow torch (even
>if he had NOTHING to
>do with all this shit).
>

I'm only using common sense (not so common), which you seem to lack. Bin Laden is a MULTI-MILLIONAIRE, he grew up in the lap of luxury. Not only that he's 20 times smarter than you with 5 times your experience, no offense but come up with a better argument than "How do you know?!" The Seals can't do shit if they don't know where Binnie is and they aren't going to do anything with plyers and a blow torch as you so ignorantly suggest. IF (and thats a BIG fucking if) we get a hold of him we'll probably try to brain wash him and have him declare that terrorism is wrong and apologize on international TV before going on trial in front of the world court for crimes against humanity like after WW2.
 
His point, allthough not presented in a good way, holds a little merrit. It might be better to get him allive. Why ? Just as what Method man said. Let him renounce terrorism. Why ? Because he's the one in charge, the charismatic leader. If such a person says he was wrong a lot of his followers will probably crumble. Some will still continue but their numbers will drastically decline. But that will only work if they not only catch him but his entire entourage. Meaning his second in command and so forth. Then use a blowtorch and plyers.

JR

Nunc ut nunquam
 
Honestly I don't think we'd have the chance. I bet bin Laden would rather die than renounce his terrorism. If we gave him television time to renounce terrorism, who says he dosen't scream, "Attack the US with everything you have! Free your leader!" in Muslim?

I think if he is executed publicly on television then his followers could suddenly lose their momentum, but that could swing the other way as well.

::sigh::

Nothing we do will stop this in one action and nothing is for certain. We must take a campaign against every hint of terrorism that lasts years, otherwise this will happen again with another leader taking bin Laden's place.

True Raven
http://www.annunakiguild.net
The Annunaki FanFic and Theory Guild
 
>I think if he is executed
>publicly on television then his
>followers could suddenly lose their
>momentum, but that could swing
>the other way as well.

Lets see... the terrorists used suicide attacks. I don't think they're likely to see such an act as anything other than promotion to martrydom.
 
>Honestly I don't think we'd have
>the chance. I bet bin
>Laden would rather die than
>renounce his terrorism. If we
>gave him television time to
>renounce terrorism, who says he
>dosen't scream, "Attack the US
>with everything you have! Free
>your leader!" in Muslim?



i didnt know Muslim was a language, dont you mean, Arabic? Muslim is a religion.. just thought i'd point that out
 
>>i didnt know Muslim was a language, dont you mean, Arabic? <<

Yes I did. The emotional toll of this is beating my brain quite well, isn't it?

And the Saint_P is correct as well. bin Laden gives all his finincial support to his followers and his death would certainly stop that but I still believe that someone could pick up the slack on that as well. Quite possibly another country unless we stop them now.

Another possiblity: His death could bring the wrath of another leader with the finincial support of bin Laden's parents, who are worth three times what he is. There are just too many "what if's" in this situation. I'd love to see something concrete for a change.

True Raven
http://www.annunakiguild.net
The Annunaki FanFic and Theory Guild
 
[font size=1" color="#FF0000]LAST EDITED ON Sep-17-01 AT 01:04PM (GMT)[p]I was talking to one guy and he told me that the speculative sum of Usamas money at 250 million dollars wasn't even close. He said it was somewhere closer to only 2 or 3 million.
Speaking of financial support I was watching the TV news, during my morning trance, they said that the US military brass is planning on freezing accounts in other nations!! This smells way too close to the birth of a world nation, with all the fixin's. They were talking about Usama's supporters in Yemen, Kuwait and others paying out donations thru a faux charity organisation whilst officials in thier respective countries turned a blind eye. I don't know what they're thinking, I guess any nation in the Middle East that stands up for it's international RIGHTS gets a bomb shoved up it's collective arse... and they think this makes the radical millitant Islamic terrorists LESS dangerous!! Talk about World War III!! IF this is true... Allah help us all.:(

And I'm 19, El PreZ. PS I haven't seen anything close to psuedo-intellectual comin from your end
 
First of all, the US cannot freeze Bin Laden's assets in other nations, but those nations can agree to do so themselves. Secondly, what's wrong with a world state? Finally, I don't know if you realize this or not, Bin Laden is not a nation, he's a terrorist. If his assets are frozen, that's not a violation of a country's international rights, it's curtailing a known murderer.

"I haven't seen anything close to psuedo-intellectual comin from your end"

Although we [em]have[/em] seen quite a bit of that from you.
 
Thought I might as well throw in my two cents worth....

As far as I am aware, Osama Bin Ladens' assets/accounts have already been frozen. But... even if they are he would still have access to money (presumably). The Taliban regime which controls 95% of Afghanistan follows the same 'extremist' beliefs as Osama. There is the chance that the Taliban are 'in bed with' Osama which is why they won't hand him over. They are also a possible source of funds.

Also, terrorist attacks cost very little to carry out. It is believed that the attack on the two American embassies in Africa amounted to somewhere in the vicinity of US $20,000. Even if it cost more than that you are only talking about tens of thousands at most a couple of hundred thousand dollars. Which means that even if Osama 'only' has 2-3 million, it is still a substantial amount. Remember, the terrorists/fundamentalists/freedom fighters (call them what you will) hijacked four planes. They did not buy four planes. They merely 'stole' resources that were already available.

Then there is the 'This will start World War 3' scenario. That is a possibility although it depends on the reaction of a few key nations. Israel is already using the attacks as an excuse/cover to attack Palestinian targets. Israel is backed by the U.S.A. If some sort of solution is not found for Israel/Palestine than there will be more problems arrising from that region as many people adopt an Anti-USA belief.

There is also Pakistan. At the moment it is helping the United States. A few things I would like to point out.

1. Pakistan has nuclear weapons.
2. Pakistan is not regarded as being 'pollitically stable'
3. There are many groups in Pakistan that strongly support Osama Bin Laden.
4. The current Pakistan leader gets advice from China

This leads to the possibility of a change of leadership in Pakistan. Be it by military action or assasination or some other means. That in turn could lead to Osama supporters accessing Nuclear weapons. What they would choose to do with those weapons is entirely up to them. However, how powerful/effective those weapons are and the capability of Pakistani missiles to carry nuclear warheads is unknown to me.

In the event that China tells Pakistan to ignore American requests, that could lead to conflict between the USA and China although I doubt any military action would be taken and America and China regard each other as enemies already.

There is also the reality that Afghanistan, while it has threatened to invade Pakistan, is not stable itself. It is estimated that over 1.9 million Afghanis have fled their country and are in neighbouring countries (such as Pakistan). It is important to keep in mind that most of these refugees do not support the Taliban and have fled because of economic conditions and also because of the ongoing civil war between the Taliban and the Northern Alliance who control the remaining 5% of the country.

In other words, the entire region is unstable. Welcome to the problems of the Middle East. As far as I am aware there are about
70 different religious groups in Afghanistan. The extremist Taliban is one of those groups and is struggling to control the remaining 69. Apparently there are regular public executions every Friday.

Which brings me to the point of what to do. The USA has a few options.

1. They can carpet bomb Afghanistan which will not achieve anything and will only cause more long-term problems.

2. They can assasinate/kidnap Osama Bin Laden which will only cause the several different terrorist organisations whom he is involved with to retaliate. As someone said, this is a Hydra (I think that's right?). Cut off one head and two more will grow to replace it.

3. Support the Northern Alliance to overthrow the Taliban. The problem with this is the USA has never successfully done it. Every leader that the West has supported has either become corrupt or turned against its 'masters'. You had this with Iraq, Zimbabwe and Indonesia. THe problem is, the USA is willing to spend money on killing, maiming and bombing, but when the 'war' is over, the USA withdraws. Leaving an economically ruined country with no support to rebuild infrastructure and set up a stable government. This creates problems as people blame the retreating USA for abandoning them and in turn results in someone, somewhere setting up another army/force to try and take control of the country.


DarkUnderlord
----------------
Mooo.... Mooooo.... I'm an Interplay cow.
 
>Then there is the 'This will
>start World War 3' scenario.
>That is a possibility although
>it depends on the reaction
>of a few key nations.
>Israel is already using the
>attacks as an excuse/cover to
>attack Palestinian targets. Israel is

"Carpe Diem" - "Seize the Day"

>backed by the U.S.A. If
>some sort of solution is
>not found for Israel/Palestine than
>there will be more problems
>arrising from that region as
>many people adopt an Anti-USA
>belief.

Palestine had anti-USA attitude long before the Tuesday events. And personally, I don't see any real solutions to Palestinian-Israeli problem.

>This leads to the possibility of
>a change of leadership in
>Pakistan. Be it by military
>action or assasination or some
>other means. That in turn
>could lead to Osama supporters
>accessing Nuclear weapons. What they
>would choose to do with
>those weapons is entirely up
>to them. However, how powerful/effective
>those weapons are and the
>capability of Pakistani missiles to
>carry nuclear warheads is unknown
>to me.

They don't even have to be missiles. Screw the bombs on the jet and fly over Manhattan or Washington, then detonate them in the air. Casualties will be measured in millions.

>In the event that China tells
>Pakistan to ignore American requests,
>that could lead to conflict
>between the USA and China
>although I doubt any military
>action would be taken and
>America and China regard each
>other as enemies already.

Hmm... Then why do I still see "made in China" labels on everything? China is getting huge money from trade with America. Nuclear weapons of mass destruction? They weren't used in wars for 56 years.

>Which brings me to the point
>of what to do. The
>USA has a few options.
>
>1. They can carpet bomb Afghanistan
>which will not achieve
> anything and will
>only cause more long-term problems.

I think/hope US Government had a great illustration of the results of their foreign policy.

>2. They can assasinate/kidnap Osama Bin
>Laden which will only
> cause the several
>different terrorist organisations whom he
>is involved with
>to retaliate. As someone said,
>this is a Hydra
> (I think that's
>right?). Cut off one head
>and two more will
> grow to replace
>it.

But it will make American people feel better... And it's all about the voters, isn't it? We all feel angry now, but after a few months of fighting with elusive enemy we'll be bitching about gas prices.

>3. Support the Northern Alliance to
>overthrow the Taliban. The
> problem with this is
>the USA has never successfully
>done it.
>Every leader that the West
>has supported has either become
> corrupt or
>turned against its 'masters'. You
>had this with
> Iraq,
>Zimbabwe and Indonesia.

Heh. Exactly. US supported Afghanistan when the Soviets invaded it.

>Leaving an economically ruined country
>with no support to rebuild
>infrastructure and set up a
>stable government. This creates problems
>as people blame the retreating
>USA for abandoning them and
>in turn results in someone,
>somewhere setting up another army/force
>to try and take control
>of the country.

Yep. The US would have to support some opposition group, like they did in Balkans, if they don't want people to blame them for coming in, blasting the country to hell, then leaving. But that is precisely the problem many people outside US seem to have with our foreign policy - playing politics where nobody wants them to do that.

My opinion is that US should stick to preventing wars without any personal preferences or supporting anyone, and when the work in Afghanistan is done, get out of there as fast as we can.



http://www.nma-fallout.com/cgi-bin/forum/ForumID5/786.shtml#11

zero-x's bitter words after his encounter with roshambo:

"I agree with you but there comes a fuckin point i dont know who roquirbo thinks he is but I at least you didnt really criticize me and i appreciate that i hate people who fuck with my ideas when i didnt say shit to em and yes he is the kind of guy i would take a scalpel tear his head open the take an hammer use the end to samsh through the medulla and use the nail pull as a pry to pull back the top of the skull revealing a brain (small but brain nontheless)and take desert eagle magnum and blow it through his fucking spine as he still breath and then rip out his heart and show him how black it is before he dies but as you said thats illegal well cya"
 
>[font size=1" color="#FF0000]LAST EDITED ON Sep-17-01
>AT 01:04 PM (GMT)
>
>I was talking to one guy
>and he told me that
>the speculative sum of Usamas
>money at 250 million dollars
>wasn't even close. He said
>it was somewhere closer to
>only 2 or 3 million.

Yeah, I remember hearing some dude saying it was in the billions. Get real. bin Laden only has a few million, but that's enough to buy almost all the guns and stuff you need. Sure you can't buy a tank or helicopters or stuff, but you can get some cheap missile launchers and assault rifles easily.

>Speaking of financial support I was
>watching the TV news, during
>my morning trance, they said
>that the US military brass
>is planning on freezing accounts
>in other nations!! This smells
>way too close to the
>birth of a world nation,
>with all the fixin's. They
>were talking about Usama's supporters
>in Yemen, Kuwait and others
>paying out donations thru a
>faux charity organisation whilst officials
>in thier respective countries turned
>a blind eye. I don't
>know what they're thinking, I
>guess any nation in the
>Middle East that stands up
>for it's international RIGHTS gets
>a bomb shoved up it's
>collective arse...

Well except for Israel. Really, it may be because we don't want them being able to control oil prices the way they might want to. We ARE dependant on the Middle East for its oil and halting production just a little by countries like Saudi Arabia can really up prices in crude oil.

I also don't think it really has to do with international rights either. I mean, what kind of "rights" would they obtain? These Middle Eastern countries don't have the infrastructure to make them a world power. Most are deeply reliant on their oil exports and such and are happy with that.

The disians are the people deshelved by the rich in their *own* country who see Americans and westerners from a slanted point of view. Instead of blaming the disparities of their own nation, they blame it on the Western powers for "putting" them there.

Take for example Kuwait. There is an EXTREME disparity between rich and poor there and there is essentially NO way to move up in society. The same goes for many Middle Eastern countries.

What do they see in America? The standard citizen can make it big here, and prosper. Do we really exploit these people? Not directly. Maybe because of some bad foreign policies or the fact that we don't redistribute the wealth with other countries, but hey, if it is between you and me, I'd choose myself. Yeah we're selfish about that kind of stuff, but all nations look out for their own interests before others, it's natural.

On another note, before the WTC was bombed there was a huge selloff of Airliner stocks. Possibly this had to do with people who knew that there was going to be a big event that was going to rock the airline industry.

>and they think
>this makes the radical millitant
>Islamic terrorists LESS dangerous!! Talk
>about World War III!! IF
>this is true... Allah help
>us all.:(

From what? The Middle East? Get real. I really hate it when people start ranting on about WWIII coming from these tiny nations with no real international offensive weaponry aside from terrorists. These countries don't even have effective NAVIES people (as if that mattered at all)!

-Xotor-

[div align=center]

http://www.poseidonet.f2s.com/files/nostupid.gif
[/div]
 
>Also, terrorist attacks cost very little
>to carry out. It is
>believed that the attack on
>the two American embassies in
>Africa amounted to somewhere in
>the vicinity of US $20,000.
>Even if it cost more
>than that you are only
>talking about tens of thousands
>at most a couple of
>hundred thousand dollars. Which means
>that even if Osama 'only'
>has 2-3 million, it is
>still a substantial amount. Remember,
>the terrorists/fundamentalists/freedom fighters (call them
>what you will) hijacked four
>planes. They did not buy
>four planes. They merely 'stole'
>resources that were already available.

The financial losses due to the stock market in the airliner business alone totalled over $20 billion. Osama can do some pretty good financial damage with only a little bit of money.

>There is also Pakistan. At the
>moment it is helping the
>United States. A few things
>I would like to point
>out.
>
>1. Pakistan has nuclear weapons.

They've TESTED nuclear weapons, that doesn't mean they have the capabilities to deploy them effectively.

>2. Pakistan is not regarded as
>being 'pollitically stable'

Those nukes are probably aimed at India if anyone. Any other targets would be neighbors to Pakistan.

>3. There are many groups in
>Pakistan that strongly support Osama
> Bin Laden.

There's some in every country. Whether or not they have power is the issue.

>This leads to the possibility of
>a change of leadership in
>Pakistan. Be it by military
>action or assasination or some
>other means. That in turn
>could lead to Osama supporters
>accessing Nuclear weapons. What they
>would choose to do with
>those weapons is entirely up
>to them. However, how powerful/effective
>those weapons are and the
>capability of Pakistani missiles to
>carry nuclear warheads is unknown
>to me.

That's an interesting idea, Osama getting ahold of a nuclear weapon... I believe the next use of an offensive nuclear weapon WILL be in a terrorist attack and not in the form of a formal attack by a nation.

>In the event that China tells
>Pakistan to ignore American requests,
>that could lead to conflict
>between the USA and China
>although I doubt any military
>action would be taken and
>America and China regard each
>other as enemies already.

China has a LOT more to lose by siding with these "loser" nations than by sticking with the western powers. I mean, who do you think they generate most of their trade with? Not Pakistan definitely. Even Russia is a poor partner. What would China have to gain by siding with these relatively rogue nations? China is not dominated by Islamic people, those nations are relatively poor and ill-suited for war, and quite frankly, why bother? Let them scuffle around with their little wars. So far China has been sitting in the sidelines. If China were to get involved, it would spark attacks from at least one of the sides and that isn't worth it.

>2. They can assasinate/kidnap Osama Bin
>Laden which will only
> cause the several
>different terrorist organisations whom he
>is involved with
>to retaliate. As someone said,
>this is a Hydra
> (I think that's
>right?). Cut off one head
>and two more will
> grow to replace
>it.

And it isn't like he's the only ring-leader. Rumor has it he might fund some of these attacks but doesn't actually plan them. It isn't like his money is going to disappear once he dies.

>3. Support the Northern Alliance to
>overthrow the Taliban. The
> problem with this is
>the USA has never successfully
>done it.

Like the Shah in Iran... I don't see why we still have sanctions against some nations like Iran and Cuba. They're harmless now and could be good trade partners.

-Xotor-

[div align=center]

http://www.poseidonet.f2s.com/files/nostupid.gif
[/div]
 
Last night someone i work with told me and i quote " this is scary we are going to know war, our generation did not know war so far... blablabla"
Bullshit i was born when Viet-Nam occured, i was born when the Guatemala war occured , i was born for the Irak war.
War is not what it used to be. She tought that war would be here. Shit i'd like to see Afghanistan invading North America.
How are they going to get here containers?, by row boat? or by swimming?.

War is not going to be fought in America, well at least not against a small contry that can barelly go over an Ocean.


SEb P
 
Middle East supplies us oil, right? And they are the people of one religion, right? And if US will behave in inappropriate way with the civil population, or yet again try to interfere with the politics of Islamic nation, that may be the last drop for our Middle Eastern allies/trade partners - money is good and all, but Middle East is known for its anti-american attitudes, and the last thing their leaders need is a civil uprising. And we all know how much american voters hate the rise of gas prices. It is possible that US might attempt to interfere with the politics of our ex-partners, which would put us in odds with the rest of the Western world. Not a WW3, but America would still be screwed.

My humble opinion.



http://www.nma-fallout.com/cgi-bin/forum/ForumID5/786.shtml#11

zero-x's bitter words after his encounter with roshambo:

"I agree with you but there comes a fuckin point i dont know who roquirbo thinks he is but I at least you didnt really criticize me and i appreciate that i hate people who fuck with my ideas when i didnt say shit to em and yes he is the kind of guy i would take a scalpel tear his head open the take an hammer use the end to samsh through the medulla and use the nail pull as a pry to pull back the top of the skull revealing a brain (small but brain nontheless)and take desert eagle magnum and blow it through his fucking spine as he still breath and then rip out his heart and show him how black it is before he dies but as you said thats illegal well cya"
 
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