By my estimate, there can be little doubt that EA's latest venture into MMO genre will flop miserably, and I don't see how even Star Wars brand recognition can avert the impending catastrophe. I base this conclusion on several premises, the primary of which is EA's dreadful MMO record.
Simply put, EA have no clue about running an MMO. They treat their online games same as they treat their single-player games - as products. If a product fails to sell hundreds of thousands of copies on its first month, it is considered a failure, and rightfully so.
However, MMOs aren't products. MMOs are services. Very few MMOs are massive successes from the get-go. Few MMOs attract a million subscribers in their first month. Few MMOs rake in immense profits early on. Most MMOs never do. Yet somehow, all these countless MMOs continue to run for years, even get updates and expansions, and are considered to be successful by their publishers - successful enough to warrant continued support and improvement.
Like any hugely complex and expensive service, a successful MMO requires immense commitment and enthusiasm from the providers - developers, publishers, tech staff, game masters and everyone else involved in its development and maintenance. This is something EA simply can't wrap their minds around. They don't understand that success of an MMO isn't decided in the first month following public release - rather, it is something you need to constantly work on for the entire duration of the MMO's lifespan.
Your MMO didn't attract as many players as you expected? No problem, figure out what went wrong and *fix it*. Maybe the hype was insufficient. Maybe the subscription fee is too high. Maybe the game was released in a buggy or unfinished state. Maybe there isn't enough content. Or maybe your expectations were simply too high and you can still turn a solid profit even if you don't blow WoW out of the water. Whatever the problem is, *it can still be rectified*. Why? Because development and marketing efforts on an MMO continue even *after* release.
There is a hot new MMO out and all your players are leaving? No big deal, the trend is very much reversible. MMO gamers are a very dedicated bunch and it doesn't take much effort to get them to whip out their MasterCard and renew that subscription. All it takes is a new content upgrade, a much-needed mechanics revamp or a simple price cut and they'll be all over the MMO again like happy flies on a pile of pixelated shit. All it takes is commitment. How do you think Funcom manages to keep Anarchy Online popular and profitable even now, seven years after release? *Commitment*.
Commitment, or lack of thereof, is the reason why EA have utterly failed to leave a mark in the MMO industry and managed to botch every MMO they ever worked on, with notable exception of Ultima Online (and even that is debatable, as most UO expansions could have only come out of a very cocaine-addled mind). Lack of commitment is why EA closed down Earth & Beyond and thereby fucked over thousands of subscribers. It is also the reason why they closed down Motor City Online, in an unbelievably misguided attempt to get more people to play NFS Underground. It is also why The Sims Online never left its deficient state and always remained a pariah of online worlds.
In EA's case, lack of commitment goes hand-in-hand with lack of ethics. It is unethical to cancel an MMO that thousands of people have devoted perverse amounts of time and money to, not to mention all the developers who labored on it for years. The concept of ethics has always been alien to EA, which is why no gamer in their right mind will want to go anywhere near their latest piece of scam-ware. The only bit of good news for EA is that not too many gamers *are* "in their right mind", which explains why so many of them continue to pay full price for reskins of a 2002 World War II shooter.
In addition to EA's lack of commitment, other factors must be taken into account when considering the KotOR MMO. One is, as I stated before, brand recognition. Judging by the number of failed MMOs that were based on massively popular licenses, valuable brand name is more of a curse than a blessing for an MMO. Here are a few prominent examples from MMO history that illustrate very plainly that massively popular license is no guarantee of success in the market of mass online games:
1. Star Wars Galaxies. One of the most controversial and publicized failures, and also the most relevant one in this case. Though it managed to build up an impressive player-base early on, it suffered constant criticism due to its unfinished state, poor design and subsequent mismanagement on SOE's part, mismanagement that could have only resulted from unfathomable hubris on developers' part. After a series of gameplay revamps meant to streamline the game and give it greater mass appeal completely removed pretty much everything that made SWG unique and worthwhile, a massive exodus of players followed, leaving the gameworld largely barren and sealing the MMO's fate. It's safe to say at this point that it's only a matter of time before the game is shut down.
2. The Matrix Online. I could be wrong here, but my impression is that TMO has had significantly less media attention than SWG, probably because the two shitty movie sequels made the target audience wish they had taken the blue pill. Regardless, the game is an undeniable flop with a pitiful player-base and almost no media coverage.
3. Lord of the Rings Online. Released with fairly little hype, this surprisingly well-designed MMO has attracted a modest, but devoted player-base of about 200,000. Its unimpressive reception among gamers also happens to be its greatest strength - people play LOTRO purely out of love for Tolkien's setting, not out of juvenile need to vent excess hormones by pwning n00bz. Developers, on the hand, repay this enthusiasm by constantly improving the game with new content. In light of that, it's hard to refer to LOTRO as "failure". It is a failure by standards of EA, who would only glance at the modest profit margin before shutting down the game.
Finally, BioWare's inexperience with MMOs must also be taken into consideration when estimating the success chances of KotOR MMO. Now, BioWare is a development studio media love to love. My low opinion of them notwithstanding, one can't deny that their history is one of massive commercial and critical successes. However, one would also have to be utterly blind or deluded to dismiss three important facts:
1. All of BioWare's games so far have been single-player CRPGs. Contrary to what the misnomer "MMORPG" might imply, MMOs are entirely different beasts and experience in the field of CRPG development hardly makes you a successful MMO developer, and vice versa. In particular, programming aspect of MMOs is exceptionally complex, and if the buggy mess that is NWN (BioWare's first and, thus far, only venture into multiplayer gaming) is any indication, we wouldn't be all that unreasonable in anticipating an MMO equivalent of Big Rigs.
2. Correction: BioWare has worked on two non-CRPGs - Shattered Steel and MDK 2. The fact that you've likely never heard of them should tell you what smashing hits they were.
3. KotOR MMO is being developed by BioWare's Austin studio. Chances are you've never heard of the Austin studio, either, and for a good reason - they haven't yet developed any games. So while it's bad enough that BioWare Canada have no experience with non-CRPGs, these guys have no experience with *anything*. And yes, I know BioWare Austin is headed by Gordon Walton, much like SGO was headed by Brad McQuaid, and we all know how great Vanguard turned out to be.
With all these factors in mind, it's safe to say that BioWare's involvement in no way ensures that KotOR MMO won't be a colossal clusterfuck, let alone a great game. And when I also factor in EA's grim history as well as the proclivity towards failure that appears to be common to MMOs based on popular licenses, I don't really go out on a limb in saying that KotOR MMO has pretty dismal prospects.
And now I come to the most delicious part of my little exposition. A disconcerting number of indicators point towards KotOR MMO being an abject, deplorable failure. And we all know that failure - more specifically, *financial* failure - doesn't sit well with EA. Bluntly put, there is a good chance KotOR MMO will get BioWare shut down and developers fired or dispersed across EA's many development divisions, yet again confirming the notorious fact that for game development studios, getting involved with - let alone acquired by - EA is tantamount to a kiss of death. As it stands BioWare will be *very* fortunate if EA restrict their dismantlement to the Austin branch, but even in the best case scenario I somehow doubt the Canada division will get away with their autonomy and creative freedom intact. In other words, better enjoy your Jade Empire and Dragon Age, because the best you can hope for in foreseeable future from BioWare is another dozen Mass Effect sequels. I'd mourn their passing if I didn't find their presence in the game industry to have been at best useless and at worst exceedingly detrimental to the CRPG genre. With that in mind, au revoir and good riddance.
PS: If this post sounds suspiciously familiar, almost as if you read it on another forum, know that your impression is entirely mistaken and that this isn't a cross-post from anywhere. Yeah.
