The Rising Sun?

[Zaij]

Why would they want to take control of China? There isn't be anything worth invading China for and with the amount of troops it can put up - the fighting would destroy most of the country. If China became a threat, the only way to neutralise them would be to bomb them, and even then, that could probably only be achieved with a-bombs.

 

[Bradylama]

The World War 1 situation was more an amalgamation of contending Superpowers than the bipolar social clime of the Cold War.

And a Superpower to contend with America's power is a very bad thing. A situation like that would force future American administrations to give up their Rooseveltian Foreign Policies in favor of Kissinger's more tactically practical system. Another bipolar global situation means a return to situations like the CIA's funding of the Khmer Rhouge, and the support of despots in Central America in favor of their communist counterparts.

 

[Paladin Solo]

I said fairly Loxley...fairly! As in on our terms. There aren't many, if hardly at all, nations in this world that would like to fight the US military conventionally. Why do you think insurgents are figthing the way they are, or the way the Vietnamese fought us? Unconventional warfare is the only way to go about fighting the US if you wish to have at least some hope of winning. The US has too many advantages in conventional means, and no matter if you sent a thousand, or a million charging at us, the US arsenal has enough cruise missiles, artillery, air superiority, naval superiority, and military knowhow to destroy it all in almost no time. Unconvential, guerrilla warfare, is where we get bogged down, and are forced into a method of fighting where the enemy has a much greater chance of winning then if they were to fight us conventionally. I mean, unless you're talking about a Soviet-like military, or one as strong and advanced as the US, then the fight would be more like that on a World War 2 scale. If you don't have a air force, and navy to match or excel the nation you are going up against, then why fight conventionally?

Why would they want to take control of China? There isn't be anything worth invading China for and with the amount of troops it can put up - the fighting would destroy most of the country. If China became a threat, the only way to neutralise them would be to bomb them, and even then, that could probably only be achieved with a-bombs.

If China ever did become a threat, it would be very difficult to deal with it. The US and China are already spying on eachother, and occasionally getting caught, who knows what the next step might be? If we were to take on China now, we would have to resort to not using nuclear weapons, since China has it's fair share of capability. Basically, we would have to us the methods CCR mentioned. Constant air, artillery, and naval bombardment, covert ops, small unit action here and there, and using a campaign to win the hearts and minds of the people, and arming any potential revelutionaries.

And a Superpower to contend with America's power is a very bad thing. A situation like that would force future American administrations to give up their Rooseveltian Foreign Policies in favor of Kissinger's more tactically practical system. Another bipolar global situation means a return to situations like the CIA's funding of the Khmer Rhouge, and the support of despots in Central America in favor of their communist counterparts.

As an American, I can understand why you would prefer just one American superpower, but the price of balance and stability are not always easy to bear. Kind of like how the saying goes, freedom isn't free.

 

[John Uskglass]

This is true, but I predict that due to the increasingly capitalist environment, included the now allowed private property, the communist system at the least will collapse. Whether the totalitarian system will then collapse is another thing, but I think it eventually will.

Now you're thinking like an American. That's been one of my marge arguments for capitalist dictators in the Mid East and South America rather then Socialist ones.

I hope you are right, and I think you might be, however, I fear that Ziaoping knew what he was doing and that the Chinese population, like Russia's, is too apathetic for large social change.

1) That exact same reasoning did NOT lead to WW1. A series of unfortunate incidents and grave diplomatic errors led to WW1, but the coalition blocks didn't actually force anyone to join in. Great-Britain could've stayed out of WW1 without any legal trouble at all, but it chose not to because of "honor".

Good point; however, if it did, Germany would literally control the Continent (making that passe line in Deutchland Uber Alles a reality), and eventually either a UK-America alliance would have to go into the bloodiest war imagineable, or Germany would have conquered the world.

2) Did I ever say I wanted them to become a superpower? I'm merely propogating the facts: China is a huge country, and can therefore not be ignored. That does have an advantage, and I named that advantage just now.

Correct, it cannot be ignored, but I don't think it's either A) Wise to think China as a superpower as a goal B)Has the capacity to contend with the US

And frankly, you Americans seem to be more bent on private power than on ensuring the peace and stability in the world. Give me a break, CCR, and don't start on your "The USA must be the sole superpower because it is really really good!" rant.

In theroy, I'm not opposed to a bipolar world. However, my point is that China, because it's among the most pshyopathic nations in the World next to North Korea and Zimbabwe, believing China can do it and helping is frieghtning.

Frankly, I'd hope either India, the Euros with Germany at the front (Yes, I still like the French, but they're courting the Islamafundies under Chriac scares the shit out of me) or Brazil make it.

Trying to help it? Bwaha! Yeah, I'm really trying to help them become a superpower.
How exactly am I doing that? By saying "China is a huge country" and "the communist system will collapse, probably leading to a firmer position in the world for them."
Psch.

Come on. The Socialists in France WANT China to become a superpower, and belive that the fall of the USSR was a bad thing.

Sure, I think alot of people (like yourself) are observers, but most cryptocommies want China to become as powerful as the Chinese do.

 

[Brutulf]

It seems like you are assuming that China will always be an "evil" communist totalitarian state. Remember that we are talking about the future here. Much can change. Remember where Germany where some 60 years ago? They seem to be doing quite fine now, so why dismiss the idea that China can/might change in the same way?

 

[John Uskglass]

I know. Look at the top of my post. I think it could happen, but again, Ziaoping designed the economy such that the capitalist system can coexsist with the totalitarian state.

 

[Sander]

Now you're thinking like an American. That's been one of my marge arguments for capitalist dictators in the Mid East and South America rather then Socialist ones.

I hope you are right, and I think you might be, however, I fear that Ziaoping knew what he was doing and that the Chinese population, like Russia's, is too apathetic for large social change.

Ehe. I'm thinking like an American, how interesting.
In any case, due to the increasingly capitalist environment the people of China will have more experience with freedom in the "western" countries, there are, for instance, quite a few Chinese students studying abroad. This could very well leed to a general feeling of discontent among the Chinese, and when your people are feeling discontented, you're fucked.

Good point; however, if it did, Germany would literally control the Continent (making that passe line in Deutchland Uber Alles a reality), and eventually either a UK-America alliance would have to go into the bloodiest war imagineable, or Germany would have conquered the world.

Nope, you're mixing up WW2 and WW1 Germany.
World War 1 Germany was not the evil "we want everything" country you're supposing it is, it was just another country in that war.
Germany joined (or rather started) the war because of Austria-Hungary, not because of territorial struggles and a desire for "Lebensraum". That was Germany in the Second World War.
In other words: Germany would've probably conquered France and Belgiumn, and would've annexed them, they would eventually have signed a peace with the Russians, if the Russians hadn't gone through a civil war, which is quite imagineable. But Germany would not have adopted a stance of "let's conquer the world".

Correct, it cannot be ignored, but I don't think it's either A) Wise to think China as a superpower as a goal B)Has the capacity to contend with the US

I didn't say it was my goal. And I do think that it has the capacity to contend with the US because the USA is acting as the policeman of the globe and isn't doing all too well partially because of that.

In theroy, I'm not opposed to a bipolar world. However, my point is that China, because it's among the most pshyopathic nations in the World next to North Korea and Zimbabwe, believing China can do it and helping is frieghtning.

The point is one of moderation: China couldn't do much, because the USA is still a much greater military power, but what it could do is moderate the USA, at the same time the USA would be moderating China.

Frankly, I'd hope either India, the Euros with Germany at the front (Yes, I still like the French, but they're courting the Islamafundies under Chriac scares the shit out of me) or Brazil make it.

Personally I'm hoping it'll be the EU, a more democratic EU, though, and one with less dominating powers and more co-operating powers. Meh, I doubt that'll happen, though.

Come on. The Socialists in France WANT China to become a superpower, and belive that the fall of the USSR was a bad thing.

I think you're referring to the communists, but I"m neither French nor a real socialist.

Sure, I think alot of people (like yourself) are observers, but most cryptocommies want China to become as powerful as the Chinese do.

Then again, most cryptocommies haven't any influence whatsoever. I'd be more frightened by a group of neo-fascists with a frighteningly xenophobic attitude grabbing one quarter of the votes in Flanders than by a margin grouping of communists who don't do anything.

 

[Bradylama]

This is true, but I predict that due to the increasingly capitalist environment, included the now allowed private property, the communist system at the least will collapse. Whether the totalitarian system will then collapse is another thing, but I think it eventually will.

The modernized coastal cities still won't be enough to rival Western service economies. And China has no real industry. The vast portion of China is still stuck in the 1800's. Modernizing and industrializing these regions would take decades to bring China's economy up to a level that would rival America's and the EU's.