It seems that end of post-communist authoritarian regimes in former Soviet states is nigh. First two peaceful revolutions brought about democratic changes in Georgia and Ukraine, and then Akayev's regime in Kyrgyzstan was toppled in a not-so-peaceful revolution. If yesterday's massacre is any indication, next up is Karimov's regime in Uzbekistan.
Namely, on May 12 in Uzbek city of Andijan thousands of people gathered in the streets and demanded justice for a group of businessmen who were imprisoned on account of alleged ties to islamist extremism. The protests were peaceful until a group of armed men - allegedly islamist rebels - stormed the prison and liberated 4,000 prisoners (most of them political). After that, all hell broke loose. The army put the city under blockade, evacuated all the foreign journalists and moved in to crush the demonstrations. Footmen and armored carriers surrounded the protesting masses and opened fire on them, indiscrimantly shooting armed rebels and unarmed civilians. Unofficial reports cite hundreds of civilians, many of them women and children, brutally slaughtered by the government troops. However, the swift and brutal military action has been rather ineffective - thousands of protesters gathered again today, this time accusing government of wanton murder and demanding Karimov's resignation.
More details here.
Though people tend to compare the Uzbek uprising with similar events in Georgia, Ukraine and Kyrgyzstan, I fear they are too quick to draw that parallel. For starters, I find this apparent extremist prefix of the rebels quite disconcerting. This popular movement in Andijan reeks more of islamic revolution than cry for freedom and democracy. Comparison with 1979. events in Iran seems more accurate in this instance. Unlike Ukraine, where the 'orange revolution' was basically a conflict between pro-Moscow government and pro-western opposition, in Uzbekistan there is no strong opposition, and the current president is a major ally in battle against terrorism and extremism, so he has support of both Russia and USA. If we also take into account that Russia is unlikely to tolerate another violent regime change in her neighbourhood, then it's obvious that Andijan uprising has low chances of succeess in overthrowing the current government, and even if it does succeed, I'm not sure it will breed a more democratic form of rule.
Namely, on May 12 in Uzbek city of Andijan thousands of people gathered in the streets and demanded justice for a group of businessmen who were imprisoned on account of alleged ties to islamist extremism. The protests were peaceful until a group of armed men - allegedly islamist rebels - stormed the prison and liberated 4,000 prisoners (most of them political). After that, all hell broke loose. The army put the city under blockade, evacuated all the foreign journalists and moved in to crush the demonstrations. Footmen and armored carriers surrounded the protesting masses and opened fire on them, indiscrimantly shooting armed rebels and unarmed civilians. Unofficial reports cite hundreds of civilians, many of them women and children, brutally slaughtered by the government troops. However, the swift and brutal military action has been rather ineffective - thousands of protesters gathered again today, this time accusing government of wanton murder and demanding Karimov's resignation.
More details here.
Though people tend to compare the Uzbek uprising with similar events in Georgia, Ukraine and Kyrgyzstan, I fear they are too quick to draw that parallel. For starters, I find this apparent extremist prefix of the rebels quite disconcerting. This popular movement in Andijan reeks more of islamic revolution than cry for freedom and democracy. Comparison with 1979. events in Iran seems more accurate in this instance. Unlike Ukraine, where the 'orange revolution' was basically a conflict between pro-Moscow government and pro-western opposition, in Uzbekistan there is no strong opposition, and the current president is a major ally in battle against terrorism and extremism, so he has support of both Russia and USA. If we also take into account that Russia is unlikely to tolerate another violent regime change in her neighbourhood, then it's obvious that Andijan uprising has low chances of succeess in overthrowing the current government, and even if it does succeed, I'm not sure it will breed a more democratic form of rule.