Why Storms are getting worse-

welsh

welsh

Junkmaster
Is it because the oceans are rising, or is the land sinking? Or maybe it's the seas are getting warmer?

Part of the problem might have been that the marshlands that surround seashores are being destroyed. This was true in New Orleans and the Gulf Coast. But what about elsewhere-


hurricanes_intro1.jpg


Hurricanes
Storm surge
Sep 15th 2005
From The Economist print edition
Jeff Schmaltz, MODIS at NASA, GSFC

The most damaging types of hurricane are getting more frequent

AMID the handwringing that has followed the devastation of New Orleans by Hurricane Katrina, a persistent question whispered in the background has been whether hurricanes are getting worse. A paper in this week's Science, by Peter Webster of the Georgia Institute of Technology, in Atlanta, and his colleagues suggests that they are, but only in one, specific way.
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For a copy of the article-
http://www.sciencemag.org/cgi/content/summary/309/5742/1807

for science-
http://www.sciencemag.org/

Hurricanes can form only over oceans that have a surface temperature above 26°C. That is well known. What is debatable is what effect, if any, raising the temperature beyond that has. It might increase the number of storms, the length they last, their maximum strength or the proportion that are strong. Or it might have no effect. Since average ocean-surface temperatures have risen by about half a degree since 1970, this is not an idle question, and it has, indeed, been asked in the past. But it has been asked largely of the North Atlantic and North Pacific, because they are fringed by countries that can afford to do the asking. Dr Webster, by contrast, has looked at the whole planet—or, rather, the six ocean basins on its surface that act as hurricane nurseries.

http://www.economist.com/images/20050917/CST952.gif
He and his team used satellite data to obtain consistent observations from around the world. (This was the reason they were able to go back only as far as 1970; before that, there were not enough observations.) Analysing the sea-surface temperatures in the six basins (the North Atlantic, the West Pacific, the East Pacific, the Southwest Pacific, the North Indian Ocean and the South Indian Ocean), they found statistically significant temperature rises in all but the Southwest Pacific.

Looking at the hurricanes themselves, though, they found no long-term trends in the number of storms per ocean basin or the length a storm lasts, except in the North Atlantic, where both increased. That is unfortunate news for Caribbean countries and the United States, which bear the brunt of those storms. But it suggests that whatever is increasing hurricane incidence it is not—or, at least not solely—to do with ocean warming. If it were, such increases would have shown up in other places where the sea is getting warmer.

http://www.economist.com/images/20050917/CST951.gif

Nor was there any increase in the maximum windspeed that storms attained anywhere. What there was, however, was a doubling around the world of the proportion of storms in the most destructive categories (4 and 5 on the Saffir-Simpson scale usually employed by meteorologists). And, although the exact rise in that proportion varied from basin to basin, all of them saw a significant increase.

What caused that increase is, of course, debatable—and since the second-largest percentage increase was in the Southwest Pacific, where no significant temperature rise was observed, leaping on changes in sea-surface temperature as the sole cause might be premature. But what Dr Webster and his colleagues have shown beyond much doubt is that something rather nasty has been happening. Time, perhaps, to batten down the hatches.
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It's funny how I can read the economist on the train the one day, and then read it on-line again the next.

It's like a recurring feeling of déja-vue.
 
Graz'zt said:
Increasingly strong hurricanes are ocurring because of global warming. Period.
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The New York Times
August 30, 2005
Storms Vary With Cycles, Experts Say
By KENNETH CHANG

Because hurricanes form over warm ocean water, it is easy to assume that the recent rise in their number and ferocity is because of global warming.

But that is not the case, scientists say. Instead, the severity of hurricane seasons changes with cycles of temperatures of several decades in the Atlantic Ocean. The recent onslaught "is very much natural," said William M. Gray, a professor of atmospheric science at Colorado State University who issues forecasts for the hurricane season.

From 1970 to 1994, the Atlantic was relatively quiet, with no more than three major hurricanes in any year and none at all in three of those years. Cooler water in the North Atlantic strengthened wind shear, which tends to tear storms apart before they turn into hurricanes.

In 1995, hurricane patterns reverted to the active mode of the 1950's and 60's. From 1995 to 2003, 32 major hurricanes, with sustained winds of 111 miles per hour or greater, stormed across the Atlantic. It was chance, Dr. Gray said, that only three of them struck the United States at full strength.

Historically, the rate has been 1 in 3.

Then last year, three major hurricanes, half of the six that formed during the season, hit the United States. A fourth, Frances, weakened before striking Florida.

"We were very lucky in that eight-year period, and the luck just ran out," Dr. Gray said.

Global warming may eventually intensify hurricanes somewhat, though different climate models disagree.

In an article this month in the journal Nature, Kerry A. Emanuel, a hurricane expert at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology, wrote that global warming might have already had some effect. The total power dissipated by tropical cyclones in the North Atlantic and North Pacific increased 70 to 80 percent in the last 30 years, he wrote.

But even that seemingly large jump is not what has been pushing the hurricanes of the last two years, Dr. Emanuel said, adding, "What we see in the Atlantic is mostly the natural swing."
 
Haha... such poetic justice then that USA are being pounded by them... it's a bit unfair to the surrounding island countries, though.
It would really be poetic justice if all of China was suddenly devestated by hurricanes.
 
Kharn said:
From 1970 to 1994, the Atlantic was relatively quiet, with no more than three major hurricanes in any year and none at all in three of those years. Cooler water in the North Atlantic strengthened wind shear, which tends to tear storms apart before they turn into hurricanes.
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Funny thing that the most intense hurricane in the North Atlantic was Hurricane Gilbert in 1988. The third most was Allen 1980. The fourth was our recent Katrina. In 1985, the United States was hit by six hurricanes; a record shared with 1916 (though perhaps not all would be classified as 'major'). 1992 brought Andrew, which was the most costly American natural disaster up until Katrina. In addition, 8,000 dead from Fifi in 1974 and 2,000 more dead from David in 1979. I suppose you could still call the time between 1970 and 1994 "relatively quiet."
 
Well, "costly" seems to be more a matter of chance than anything else.

The important question for "are hurricanes on the rise because of global warming" is not "how many hurricanes hit America or other places causing death/injuries" but "how many hurricanes exist, period"

See?

Allen and Gilbert are good points.

I'm not arguing either point, though, since I still think global warming studies are ridiculous studies based on so much lack of information
 
Kharn said:
Graz'zt said:
Increasingly strong hurricanes are ocurring because of global warming. Period.
Click to expand...


The New York Times
August 30, 2005
Storms Vary With Cycles, Experts Say
By KENNETH CHANG

Because hurricanes form over warm ocean water, it is easy to assume that the recent rise in their number and ferocity is because of global warming.

But that is not the case, scientists say. Instead, the severity of hurricane seasons changes with cycles of temperatures of several decades in the Atlantic Ocean. The recent onslaught "is very much natural," said William M. Gray, a professor of atmospheric science at Colorado State University who issues forecasts for the hurricane season.

From 1970 to 1994, the Atlantic was relatively quiet, with no more than three major hurricanes in any year and none at all in three of those years. Cooler water in the North Atlantic strengthened wind shear, which tends to tear storms apart before they turn into hurricanes.

In 1995, hurricane patterns reverted to the active mode of the 1950's and 60's. From 1995 to 2003, 32 major hurricanes, with sustained winds of 111 miles per hour or greater, stormed across the Atlantic. It was chance, Dr. Gray said, that only three of them struck the United States at full strength.

Historically, the rate has been 1 in 3.

Then last year, three major hurricanes, half of the six that formed during the season, hit the United States. A fourth, Frances, weakened before striking Florida.

"We were very lucky in that eight-year period, and the luck just ran out," Dr. Gray said.

Global warming may eventually intensify hurricanes somewhat, though different climate models disagree.

In an article this month in the journal Nature, Kerry A. Emanuel, a hurricane expert at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology, wrote that global warming might have already had some effect. The total power dissipated by tropical cyclones in the North Atlantic and North Pacific increased 70 to 80 percent in the last 30 years, he wrote.

But even that seemingly large jump is not what has been pushing the hurricanes of the last two years, Dr. Emanuel said, adding, "What we see in the Atlantic is mostly the natural swing."
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That evidence doesn't prove that rise in number and ferocity of hurricanes has nothing to do with global warming, it just shows there are other possible factors contributing to that rise. It's still beyond dispute that global warming has caused the sea temperature to increase by 0.5°C, resulting in increased evaporation in tropical and subtropical zones and a significantly greater number of powerful tropical storms. But I suppose we won't know for certain until ten more years expire and Atlantic enters another "calm" period.
 
I actually don't care about the global warming part of the article, I'm not arguing for or against global warming's effects on hurricanes. Rather, it seems to me that calling the period between 1970 and 1994 "relatively quiet" is a bit off.

Deaths and cost both depend on the severity of the storm when it makes landfall, duration, and location. I suppose, in a way, you can chalk it up to chance.
 
Kotario said:
Deaths and cost both depend on the severity of the storm when it makes landfall, duration, and location. I suppose in a way, you can chalk it up to chance.
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Yeah, but my point was the amount of storms making a landfall is not necessarily representative of the total amount of storms.

Ratty said:
That evidence doesn't prove that rise in number and ferocity of hurricanes has nothing to do with global warming, it just shows there are other possible factors contributing to that rise. It's still beyond dispute that global warming has caused the sea temperature to increase by 0.5°C, resulting in increased evaporation in tropical and subtropical zones and a significantly greater number of powerful tropical storms. But I suppose we won't know for certain until ten more years expire and Atlantic enters another "calm" period.
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The evidence doesn't disprove it either.

This is why I don't like the global warming debate, it really is mostly just a load of bs.
 
Kharn said:
The evidence doesn't disprove it either.

This is why I don't like the global warming debate, it really is mostly just a load of bs.
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It's because we know so little about our planet's climate. Which leads me to another issue - what the fuck is up with those metheorologists? They go through this excruciatingly long and difficult education process, learning most complex areas of maths known to mankind, yet they *still* can't get a simple weather forecast right. We should start torturing them for motivation.
 
Word up Rat.. err, Gra'azt.

Haha... such poetic justice then that USA are being pounded by them... it's a bit unfair to the surrounding island countries, though.
It would really be poetic justice if all of China was suddenly devestated by hurricanes.
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I don't expect you to have a neutral view on America and our industrialization as it relates to our environmental policy, coming as you do from a country in a considerably different economic and political situation thousands of miles away, but I ask that you please refrain from bullshit knee-jerk reactions.

Anyway, violent storms in the Atlantic come and go with surprising regularity. There was a string of horrific weather a the turn of the century, the 30's, the 60's, and things were a bit spread out between the late eighties and the early 2000's, instead of all hitting in a string in the middle of a single decade like the others did.

The only difference here is that the storm hit a woefully under-protected city and the bureaucracy got in the way. There were similar outbreaks of protest during the 30's when a devastating storm hit the eastern seaboard, and the government promised to rebuild and mend their ways.

And yet here we are again.
 
We are simply in a warming cycle. These things happen. "Global Warming" is not so much caused by humans, but helped a little bit. There are common exagerations and misconceptions about this sort of thing that the press pushes because they love sensationalism (and why not? it sells newspapers, doesn't it??). Yes, pollution is bad. No, we have not magically made all these hurricanes come out of nowhere. Once upon a time the earth was in an ice age, and then came out of it, all without our help. Remember "El Nino"? Don't hear much about that any more, do you? The people who push this "Global Warming" as the be-all and end-all are the same ones who 40 years ago predicted another ice age. I'm not saying they're completely wrong or anything, just take media sensationalism with a grain of salt, that's all.
 
Sorry to break the flow of conversation by butting in, but as of 10:50 PM Sept. 21st, Hurricane Rita is packing 175 mph (282 kph) winds and a pressure rating of 897 millibars. It's the 3rd strongest storm ever seen in the Atlantic, and it's even more powerful than Katrina was at its max.

In comparison, Katrina maxed out at 165 mph (265 kph) and a pressure rating of around 930 millibars. Katrina hit land with 140 mph (225 kph) winds.

Rita went from being a Category 1 hurricane to a Category 5 in less than 24 hours and it's still strengthening... Rita will make landfall on Saturday. Over a million people have already been evacuated from the greater Houston TX area and from Galveston TX, and New Orleans is being cleared out once again. Just thought you'd all like to know in case you hadn't found out already... It fits with this debate, I think. Take it however you wish.

Hurricane Rita
 
Hah. Well, having my data changed the very same day I post it is a tad vexing.

That places two of the top five of the most intense Atlantic hurricanes in 2005.
 
I wonder if they'll evacuate the Blacks out of the threatened areas this time.

[/sarcasm]
 
hah, a lot of the evacuees went to texas, now the hurricanes are coming after them again :). Mmm it gets me nervous, is god hunting them down, one by one? In which case, i want the 100 my school is housing to ge tthe hell out of here.
 
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