That list seems a bit iffy. No Mario Galaxy? No Smash Bros? He mentions that Wii sales will be strong, but somehow forgets its flagship titles. If Starcraft 2 or the next WoW expansion hit this year, they'll be fucking huge. Gran Turismo 5 may only be for PS3, but you can guarantee it will sell to pretty much everyone who owns one. And do you Yanks not have Singstar or Buzz! or something? They're ridiculously popular here in Oz.
As for Fallout 3, I think it will be a step down from Oblivion. Even among those who aren't callous cynics it seems that many people have twigged as to how it's ultimately fairly shallow and pointless. I wouldn't go so far as to say the bubble has burst, but I can't see it being remembered as the near perfect, "best RPG ever" so many were quick to tout it as. I think there's also a more growing cynicism toward the gaming media that will dampen its effectiveness as a marketing tool.
Marketing aside, I think the gameplay itself will offend more people than Oblivion, the main "strength" of which was blandly inoffensive play. The FPS crowd will resent the "chance-to-hit" mechanics, and will have a fairly broad selection of alternatives to spend their money on. I'm quietly hoping the "true" Fallout fans won't feel it's worth coughing up full price to satisfy their curiosity. So who does that leave? I'm thinking the same sort of person who bought Mass Effect, but even then, I think Fallout 3 will lack the cinematic style and tightly reined narrative that contribute greatly to its success.
Also, Bioware has a certain diversity in the settings it serves up to its cult-like following - Baldur's Gate, KOTOR, Jade Empire are all basically the same games with the same fucking characters and same formulaic design, but range from high-fantasy to high-fantasy in space. So being a Bioware fanboy basically amounts to liking their particular style of game and being open to visually different settings.
However, Bethesda's entire cult-like following are basically followers of the Elder Scrolls, and Fallout 3 shares neither the setting, nor the unrestricted sandbox style of play. It does bear similarities on both counts, so there will be crossovers, and at least as many fans who jumped on the bandwagon at Oblivion, but do the comparison:
With Oblivion, you had a long awaited sequel to a runaway, multi-million selling success. You had a game that was a "launch title" among a list of underwhelming alternatives with no competition on the "RPG" front, and nothing significant on the FPS front, and rave reviews. Praise Bethesda's marketing if you will, but it would've been pretty fucking difficult to fail with that set of favourable circumstances.
With Fallout 3, you've got an even longer awaited sequel to a modestly selling cult-classic, with a fanbase that is more zealous in its dislike than its praise - and a remarkable departure from what made the originals cult classics. You've got a setting that is a seemingly big departure from the one that has earned the developer its fanbase, gameplay that is a step closer, but still removed. You have a lot more 360 games to choose from, including quite a few that excel in the territory Fallout 3 tentatively steps into...
Fallout 3 will certainly get a lot of hype and shift a lot of copies - maybe it belongs on that list - but I don't think it will do as well as expected.
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