Come and see... the live show of a war going on

[Sub-Human]

3. With saying that, we have to show Russia that we are a SERIOUS(!) partner. What do I mean with that? We are on the short end here, that means our bargaining position isn't very good.

NATO can bury Russia and its shitty, import-dependent, non-producing economy. It is already happening as we speak - the salaries of Russian people have decreased by almost 10%. Hundreds are not getting paid and have left their jobs (late 1980s, ring a bell?).

The idiocy of Russian politicians thinking their third-world level economy has some sort of leeway is what pushed the ruble into 80 a dollar (almost 300% devaluation, over the course of 9 months). There's no bargaining position for Putin. The only thing he has is a stockpile of old Soviet nuclear missiles. I wonder if his oligarch and FSB friends with Swiss accounts and Miami residences will allow him to use it.

 

[Crni Vuk]

I see, so you also make the same mistake of underestimating Russia.


@DarkCorp

Well, keep up the sanctions and see what happens. I was never one for giving up, especially if the Ukrainians really want our help.

With the issue that we are eventually heading right in to a civil war, guided by Western and Russian influences - which is the point, there is hardly really a good side to chose here. Even people from from Ukraine feel that the nation is not united and that you have many different groups trying to push the nation in different directions, we like to think here that it is simply poor Ukraine vs evil Russia or that it is all about Europe protecting the freedom of the people and fighting evil Russian influence, which definetly has its merits I do not dispute that, the Russian support of radical groups defintely exists but this door swings both ways, just saying. A strictly black and white thinking though is a very simplistic view on a situation that is basically a civil war. Such thinking was already problematic during the cold war and it is still today, and back than with the Soviets it was even easier compared to today, but history has shown that even that idea was not always correct. See, for example right now in Ukraine there is not even one single politican that could speak for both the east and western part of the nation. And it is very disputable if unification of Ukraine, what ever if under Russian or pro-western view is even possible. There are not just a few liberal Ukrainians that start to feel that to get peace they should maybe let go of eastern Ukraine, if not as part of Russia than maybe under a federal system or even as independed state. But those are just mind games and it illustrates how intricate the situation is as a whole. There is not just but one simple view on everything. Just as there are many different opinions about it here. There are some people that have a pro Western view and even here some are strictly pro European and some pro american while many have a rather neutral stance and some have pro Russian views. We can not simply ignore all of those with the arogant idea that our way is always the correct way and that we have always the perfect solutions.

What we ignore here are many of the historical implications that actually go much further back than the Soviet Union. Russia for example will never simply let go of Ukraine, that is something we simply HAVE to accept if we ant really to solve the situation. Kiev historically speaking is one of the birth places of what you could call old Russia - see Kievan Rus. For us this might seem ridiculus but for some Russians this holds as much merit like the Mayflower for US Americans. On the other side parts of western Ukraine have a long history with Austria/Germany and fighting Russia where the eastern part of Ukraine had always strong ties to Russia, with Oligarchs in controll today and there are enough people that have a huge benefit from this. For example one of those Oligarchs introduced Janukowytsch a decade ago to the German jouranlist Peter Scholl-Latour as the new president of Ukraine, long before all of this started and Janukowytsch was president.

All of this shows that there is a very complex context to keep in mind here, and we have still not even really talked about the Soviet Union, the Tartars and the forced migration, for gods sake depending on how you think about it Cruschtschow was from Ukraine. One thing is clear though, there is a lot of corruption going on in ALL parts of Ukraine, and we have also not even talked about the radical political groups in Ukraine, like the extrem right wing that have their foot in the pro-western Ukraine and the growing anti semitism - something that always comes up in our parliament as question. There are extreme russian seperatists in Ukraine but there are also on the other side extreme fascists. And the usual Ukrainian civilians are somewhere in the midle.

There are just as much if not even more economical and strategicial reasons behind it all compared to the humanitarian ideas. We as western Europeans and even less the US Americans simply can't understand the reasons behind Ukraine. And we tend to see always one side of the conflict. We should be very cautious not to make Ukraine our second Vietnam or if you want second Iraq. From a political point of view, where we tend always to see one side as freedom fighters under the preasure of one big and evil system. As we know today for cases like Vietnam, the South was not only about fighting evil communist peasure.

If you believe that our efforts in Ukraine are purely for humanitarian reasons and to defend all of Ukraine than you must also believe that the US and French forces fought in Indochina soley for the Vietnamese people and that the war in Iraq was all about weapons of mass destruction and fighting Sadam as the Hitler of the midle east. The reality though as we know is usually always a bit different.

The issue, for me personaly, is the fact that we show a clear double moral here, that it is very difficult to decide which case is right and which case is wrong, particularly when we are dealing with nations. Considering the Kosovo for example you had albanian groups in Serbian teritory. I will not go and discuss here if their case was right or wrong this alone could fill a topic for it self, only one thing is clear there was suffering on all sides and crimes and attrocities done to albanian and serbian civlians sometimes even from their own people, that was the reality.

What is more important though for now is the political implications of what happend in Kosovo. The outcome was an independed Kosovo. For the NATO members, in the first place the US, the reasoning have been the strong albanian groups in Kosovo and their struggle for freedom. Again, I am not judging anything here. But it is clear that both serbian and albanian groups in kosovo received support from their respective nations. And the same is true for Ukraine where you have groups with very strong ties to Russia and groups which feel very close to western Europe. With the Kosovo they allowed indpendece with the UCK as group fighting opression and defending their rights. In Ukraine its about Russian separatists labeled almost as terrorists. But I have serious doubts that all of it is controlled only and solely by Russia, that they have no support what so ever at least from SOME(!) part of the population. So why is the claim of albanians in the Kosovo more worth compared to russians living in eastern Ukraine which might GENUELY and STRONGLY feel closer to Russia than Ukraine? Or at least the current government of Ukraine. We had no issues to let Kosov gain their independence. While now Russia supporting pro Russian groups in Ukraine is clearly a breach of sovereignty? Who's deciding such cases anyway? Why has one group more weight than others. Are on the other side the Palestinian population the bad ones and Israel the good ones? Or is most of the time the truth somewhere in the midle.
*Edit
We can also see this directly tied to the Crimea where people had a chance to vote for or against Russia. It was not a perfect situation, but very comparable to the situation in Kosovo which was also questionable where the European Union allowed the Albans to go with territory which is a clear breach of international law which is the same issue with Crimea. The thing is, if we see the Maidan, which was not without questions or difficulties as right than we have to be fair with the vote in Crimea as well, as far as we know the Russian military didn't bullied the civlian population into voting but made sure that Ukrainian forces would remain in their military barracks.

Again, I am thinking about this as someone who has a Yugoslavian herritage, and if there is one thing I learned from the history down there, than that such situations usually have no clearly good and bad forces in here, eveyone is always convinced about his position and that his cause is the right one, just as we as the west are of course convinced that we do the right thing. Like I said so many times. It is about interests. And the Russians have a much bigger interest here compared to lets say the US or Germany which have more or less ignored Ukraine for the last 100 years. There is more to lose here for Russia compared to Germany or US, hence why they will, at least that is my guess, risk a lot more. I would not be surprised if Putin and his generals already have plans for invading Ukraine if things become worse. And if that hapens than there is nothing we can do, because realistcally speaking no one will be ready to send German, French or US soldiers to Ukraine to meet Russian troops. No one. I don't think I have to explain what the implications of that would mean. But there are a lot of Fallout fans here, so they might actually embrace such a confrontation. That was of course a joke.

The Ukranians are asking EU/NATO for help, telling them Fuck You might be ok for you, but not me.

I am not saying "fuck you", don't put words in my mouth. I said I am talking here about POLITICAL implications. Don't you see the difference between a nation like Ukraine and let us say Canada which is a Nato member. STRICTLY(!) from a political point of view. Do you think the US behaves to Cuba in the same way as they do with Britain? I know this sounds harsh, but we have seen what happens when one nation/force is always runing around as world police, when figures like Kenedy feel that they have to defend world peace at every corner. It comes as a surprise for some, but sometimes people are not so fond of our definition of freedom and democracy. And the same is true for Ukraine. The nation is divided. It is not one block completely under Russian controll and it is not one united land mass craving for western help/support. But people fail, at least here, to see many of the more complex implications. Don't you relaize that Ukraine is on the brink of a civil war right now? Did people not learn anything from history? Vietnam? Korea? Yugoslavia? South America? The whole middle east? When was something CLEARLY and ABSOLUTELY about "evil" vs "good" here. Extremly simplicistic and naive world views. Sorry. But I say this as someone with a serbian heritage. Things are never as simple as that. The US had always the feeling that they defended Vietnam from Chinese communism and Moscow when the truth is that the Vietnamese people hated the Chinese just as much as they hated the Americans, so much that they had their own proxy wars against China in Kambodia with the Khmer Rouge which had limited support from China.

Let us be honest here for a moment. We Europe and US will help Ukraine only as much as we can get a clear benefit out of it. Once things become critical we will back down. As simple as that. And the reason are good ones. The alternative would be eventually WW3. And that is something that most politicans relize. Ukraine is already not really a topic anymore for most people. THis is just my opinion, but I feel that Russia has already won.

PS: Lets be objective here, as you say. Russia and the US both learned global force projection from many nations that came before. From the UK, to the Macedonians, and before even that.

With one important difference.

They had no nuclear force. Mistakes happen. But we should be aware that some mistakes might happen only once.

No surprise here, all soviet rhetoric.

Doesn't make it less true. No Russian or Soviet leader for that matter could accept western influence in Ukraine just as how no US american leader could accept Russian influence in Canada. That really isnt hard to understand, I think. I am not judging this, just stating the obvious.

Sanctions ARE peaceful.

But will they force a change. Former NATO generals like A.D. Kujat see sanctions ours right now as sign of helplessness. It's pretty evident that Europe and US are very divided about the correct response anyway. At least our European leaders are not ready yet to send weapons and military advicers to Ukraine. Thankefully.

Putin says the USSR collapse was a failure, moves Russian troops into Ukraine, and proceeds to destabilise the region. Hillary essentially called him names. Yeah, totally the same.

*Shrugs*. So. Not the first time politcians say garbage in TV/press. Boy, do you know what Berlusconi all said during his reign in Italy. Or certain US politicans.

Trust runs both ways.

If we are honest, and Russia isnt honest, we will win - see Cuba missile crisis. If we are both not honest though, Russia will win, which is in my opinion more or less the case right now. It is a political game.

 

[Cimmerian Nights]

I see, so you also make the same mistake of underestimating Russia.

Heh, for some reason I read this in my mind in a Bond villain voice.

I think we're also vastly overestimating the competency of the US gov't though, blaming all this shit on them is like blaming the Three Stooges when they fuck up your oil change.

 

[Sub-Human]

With the issue that we are eventually heading right in to a civil war, guided by Western and Russian influences - which is the point, there is hardly really a good side to chose here. ... we like to think here that it is simply poor Ukraine vs evil Russia or that it is all about Europe protecting the freedom of the people and fighting evil Russian influence, which definetly has its merits I do not dispute that, the Russian support of radical groups defintely exists but this door swings both ways, just saying.

And what does 'this door swings both ways' mean? You always say, 'Of course Russia is putting troops in Ukraine, but... evil USA'. What is your point, exactly?

You wrote a dozen paragraphs with what I can assume is Cold War history. What specifically is the issue here with the US? What did they do wrong here? How does this change my and plenty others' belief that Putin is acting as an aggressor and must be stopped?

 

[Crni Vuk]

So you made up your mind already. Without any offense, than I don't know what I should say. I am not trying to convince you or to change your mind you know, Putin is an ashole. The door swings always both ways means that if Russia supports one questionable group the US/Europe are supporting another questionable group. From what I see as politicans in Ukraine now I am not conviced that they will become a great democracy with our help.

The only issue I have (in general), is the fact that people forget to argue from the oposite position. What I mean, critical thinking what it means to challange your own arguments. Why not, just for fun, thinking about arguments in favour of putin, like as if you would be in his position.

Crimea and Ukraine have a lot in common with Yugoslavia, Serbia and the Kosovo where the NATO and the US in particular defended the poor albans. Turns out the reality was very different. Thinking from the position of the other side can reveal a lot about your self. Know your enemy like your self, don't they say? As someone who has grown up with the knowledge of the other side and learning about the Yugoslavian civil war and Kosovo some of it seems to repeat it self in some form with Ukraine.

As far as the US goes, one has only to look at their recent history where many of the groups we call terrorists today saw one way or another their support.

 

[DarkCorp]

There is not just but one simple view on everything.

Agreed.

Kosovo

good v.s. bad

I can agree the Kosovo situation is very complicated. On the one hand, there already is an Albania and Albanians in Serbia could just simply move. On the other hand, the situation in Serbia should never have gotten so bad that Albanians would have to leave everything behind and simply emigrate. I guess the question is how bad were things for the Albanians in Serbia and would it warrant something as extreme as territorial secession.

With the above in mind however, Ukraine is not being partitioned here. We are not saying that Ukraine has to 'hate" the Russians in order to join the EU. It was Putin and NOT, the west that played the EU or CU card. The west has not suggested that Ukraine simply split into two sovereign nations as compared to Serbia. Unlike Putin, we have not moved in military forces in the region. As of the current moment, it is Putin that has taken the first steps toward extremism.

Look, I have spoken already about hypocracy. I am not saying there hasn't been hypocracy. But, of course that doesn't mean we should just shutup about Putin.

I would not be surprised if Putin and his generals already have plans for invading Ukraine

And Putin believes that this will help his situation in Ukraine? Even if Putin succeeds in forcing a twin state situation, most of the world will not back him. Western Ukrainians will hate him even more.

Do you think the US behaves to Cuba in the same way as they do with Britain?

Of course not. Britain has historically been a U.S. ally. Whats the point of having alliances if one could choose switch them on a whim? Its the difference between having a lifelong friend when times weren't good to johnny come latelies who become your friend out of necessity. Then we have to examine Castros mentality. Let me re-phrase, life sucked in Cuba with Batista and the U.S. didn't help. However, Castro has stated rather than a shitty life, he would have turned Cuba into a radioactive wasteland, AKA NO life. Even if we ignored that, Castro had a chance to initiate dialogue with the U.S. and make things better, he didn't. It seems some folks here believe the U.S. is stuck in some time warp where paranoid anti-communist extremist like Lemay still suggest nuclear weapons can solve all situations. Thing is, its not.

extremists

Others here have already argued that those extremists only became popular went Putin when all hard ass on eastern ukraine.

world police

Again, we do nothing, we are irresponsible assholes. Protectionists who only care about our awesome way of life and how we set up walls to keep other people out. If we do use our postion as the sole superpower in the world, we are tyrants. As with people, when you help one, you often anatagonise others. There is no way to appease everyone.

 

[Sub-Human]

So you made up your mind already. Without any offense, than I don't know what I should say. I am not trying to convince you or to change your mind you know, Putin is an ashole. The door swings always both ways means that if Russia supports one questionable group the US/Europe are supporting another questionable group.

So this is your whole point? That somewhere, down the line, US supported a group that you believe to be questionable. And this somehow invalidates US support in Ukraine. You could have said that earlier; honestly, there's absolutely zero need to write 10 paragraph essays expressing what can be summed up in one sentence: US is evil, and whatever they do cannot ever be classified as 'right'. When US sends aid to foreign countries it is only to destabilize the region and cause one of those evil US wars.

The only issue I have (in general), is the fact that people forget to argue from the oposite position. What I mean, critical thinking what it means to challange your own arguments. Why not, just for fun, thinking about arguments in favour of putin, like as if you would be in his position.

"The people in a neighbouring, brother-like country just ousted a corrupt leader who jailed opposition and used police force to attack protesters. Reminds me of myself, actually. I could just let them join the EU and NATO, become a prosperous economic country with foreign investors. I wonder what the Russian people will think, though. I've already had massive demonstrations just a couple years back... I even made a couple reforms so that they'd calm down a little...

Or I could send in diversionary units and the Russian military to destabilize the region, by arming a bunch of poor, uneducated car cleaners and factory workers with weapons and allowing them to do whatever they wanted. It worked in 1917. Then I could label Ukrainians as fascists and start a propaganda tirade to make sure that World War 2 is remembered as our nation's greatest feat. Then I can ask the Russian people: "This is what happens when you ask for freedom and oust a corrupt tyrant. Civil war, economic regression. Do you want freedom?" And of course they will shake their head no..."

 

[Crni Vuk]

They are not "evil". Not more than Russia. Or Europe. That's my point. We are nations, and pretty much any nation is always looking for their benefit, that is rather normal if you think about it. Even cooperations with allies go only so far as they don't affect us in a serious way. Why do you think there is still such a huge espionage between the so called allies, France, Britain among all, Germany and the US. There is still a lot of real rivalry going on between the nations. And it seems that you didn't really read my so called paragraphs if what you get from it is that I see the US as evil.

I start to repeat my self here ... and it becomes tiresome. What I am saying is that Ukraine is about interests, the US has interests in Ukraine and obviously Russia has interests and of course Europe. What makes it even more complicated is the historical context between Russia and Ukraine, to ignore those is extremly naive. Outright dumb. It would be like ignoring the common history that the US has with Mexico or Canada for example. It always is an aditional source for tensions. I will say this again, Ukraine is for the US an issue of foreign affairs while Ukraine is for Russia almost internal. It is not on the same level of interest, hence why Russia has A LOT more to lose here compared to the US, hence why they will most probably never back down. That's simply a realistic assessment. This has nothing, absolutely NOTHING(!) to do with judging the actions or if they are justified or not. But we are still going on confrontation here because we can't let Russia do what they want - while we do the what ever the fuck WE want, that's the point. But Russia is not Syria. Not Iraq. Not Afghanistan. Just saying.

If you SERIOUSLY believe that neither the US nor Europe has ever done something wrong here and that it is only and solely Russia to blame for the crisis in Ukraine, so be it. You are free to believe that, of course we all are processing the same informations, I don't have more insight knowledge about it compared to anyone else here, but I like to look at the history of things. And it tells me that propaganda happens on all sides, not just in Russia. No politican be it Obama, Merkel or Hollande will present their case as anything else than just. But if we just look at the maidan for a second than it is more than obvious that all of what happens in Ukraine contain a lot of unsolved almost disturbingly shady questions. There are no clear answers, a lot of missinformation and the ongoing unrest makes it literaly impossible to get clear investigations and that's in my opinion disturbing. Just like with 9/11. Or Kosovo. Or Iraq. Or Vietnam, or, or ... the list is literaly endless here. And always, it's pretty much symptomatic at this point, we find out years later that the situation was not exactly like shown in the media and that some people which didn't follow the mainstream opinion had actually a point - See the golf of Tonkin or simply this or a more recent example. But, with the difference that in a few years no one's giving a flying fuck anymore till the next unrest happens and we feel that we have to do the right thing again.

Secret armies of NATO - Always remember we are the good guys.

 

[Sub-Human]

They are not "evil". Not more than Russia. Or Europe. That's my point.

It's really difficult to understand your point when you contradict yourself over and over.

the US has interests in Ukraine and obviously Russia has interests and of course Europe.

Yeah, also the sky is blue on a clear day...

What makes it even more complicated is the historical context between Russia and Ukraine, to ignore those is extremly naive.

What is complicated about a military invasion? Troops enter a sovereign territory, under whatever fecking pretext possible. Does it make it any less of an invasion?

It is not on the same level of interest, hence why Russia has A LOT more to lose here compared to the US, hence why they will most probably never back down. That's simply a realistic assessment. This has nothing, absolutely NOTHING(!) to do with judging the actions or if they are justified or not.

So why write all of that, if not to attempt to justify Russian action in Ukraine?

But if we just look at the maidan for a second than it is more than obvious that all of what happens in Ukraine contain a lot of unsolved almost disturbingly shady questions.

Like what?

 

[Crni Vuk]

It's really difficult to understand your point when you contradict yourself over and over.

Were do I condtradict my self? I've said a few times that I am not perfect nor a professional. And english is after all not my first language.

What is complicated about a military invasion? Troops enter a sovereign territory, under whatever fecking pretext possible. Does it make it any less of an invasion?

Not much, obviously. But knowing and respecting some of the historical background can't hurt either. I mean how do you want to make the correct decisions looking at it from the outside, and that is what everyone of us is, an outsider, if you dont know all the facts? If you don't know what groups are present what relation they have with each other.

Those who don't know history are destined to repeat it.

Like what?

Like that <- I if I am not mistaken you do understand German, no?
There are definitely a lot of unsolved questions.

 

[Buxbaum666]

I can't help but think that, if Germany were to annex Pomerania, Crni would find a way to argue about how it's important to know and respect the historical background.

 

[Akratus]

Crni, you are a machine. Post 282 has more words than a page in most threads.

Anyway, yeah, politics. Russia seems dumb. The dumb government among the not-equally-dumb.

Russia has a history of crooked politics. The very first secret police was created there. The black riders called Oprichnik. And in modern times Putin uses the opportunity of an olympic game to pocket swathes of cash in his friends and his own pockets. At least the other governments in this day and age, in the first world at least, have the good notion to not be criminal openly.

Imperialism is bad. War is bad. Not doing something about this is bad, and doing something requires not doing it perfectly, through the disparity of the first world governments leading to compromised solutions, through imperfect means, and is thus also bad.

A curious game, politics. The only winning move is not to play.