To those who think a person different then Hitler might have "won" the war. Thing is that a lot of historians tried to think about this scenariou and well most get the similiar conclusion. Its still impossible.
One has to consider just a few things to see why. What was the cause of War and what was the initial German target. There wasnt any actualy. And today it is by many even believed that this played in the years of 41 - 45 a major role in the deafeat of Germany. There was no reason for the people anymore after 42 and the invasion in Russia and harsh conditions in the winter to expect a short and fast victory. Without Hitler there would have been not even a war of such size as the target for him was to conquer land for the "German civilisation" and destroy the jewish religoin and civilisation and till that isnt acomplished war had to continue. When this target is achieved though or when there will be reached a certain limit was unkown to anyone and never mentioned the war was always a "total war" and it is not far to say that there probably was no target or plan to stop not even in private. So any discussion about if Germany could have "won" the war is completely irrelevant since their targets during the War have been way to Bizarre. Where should you stop at conquering when you want to achieve the totall destructoin of a relgion and civlisation spread around the whole world? What can you expect as victory if you call the war in the ast a crussade for mankind? But without this targets which caused the war and the agression you can say that there would probably not have been a war of such level and size. Hitler can be seen as a major force behind the War efforts at least for the champaign in the east and it isnt far fetched to say that anyone with enough tactical thinking and responsibility regarding military achievements in mind would not have started a war with Russia since that has been seen as not feasible by most high rank officers in the Germany Military and the attack on Russia came for many as more or less a surprise since they expected a invasion on Britain. At least many Generals would voice their concerns about "Führerweisung Nr. 21" or the order to attack the Sovietunion.
SuAside said:
What exactly isn't unthinkable? Japan assaulting the american mainland while being fully engaged throughout Asia? Seems fairly unlikely they would have the men & brass tacs to back that up.
Again Su (
), thats what we know "today". In the 40s things might have looked different for someome who has to consider all possible scenarios. And paritcularly to someome who followed the course of war till the the december of 41.
No one expected a invasion of Russia by the Germans either or even expected them to win the war with Poland and France that fast. Hell most didnt expected in the 39 a victory over France anyway (they had both more men and material then the Germans). What they wanted was to see Germany crush on the Maginot line. Still they won in France. Was a victory out of question? Probably. But was a assault on US soil out of qustion? Depends who you ask.
Sander said:
It is a huge cost if Japan uses that time to crush the Americans while they're weak. Which isn't unthinkable.
Wilfully allowing a major part of your military to be destroyed is an insane risk.
exactly my thinking!
SuAside said:
well, if you make a projection of the costs vs the gains, it still tips in favor of the americans.
say projected losses will cause a setback of 3 to 15 months. for a president that had been dying to go to war, that isn't too much of a cost.
it would actually suit the USA's agenda to prove they were unprepared and such at Pearl Harbor. they'd have a reason to say "never again", which supports the policy of early involvement (& could support pre-emptive strikes).
Yes by our standarts today eventualy cause we know which curse the war took and cause we know today that neither the Germans or Japanese had the economy which would support their war efforts in the long run. In 1941 I have serious doubts anyone would have knew all this in details. And when you see how long the war took it seems no one believed in a short victory either.
I try to see the things from the point (as said I just "try" it, no one can know for sure) how things must have looked back in the 30s, 40s and such. And here the danger for a attack on the US soil was seen as a real possibility. The US didnt activated their military over night and mobilized all forces. It took time to train troops and change the economy accordingly. Homeguards make a bad job compared to professional soldiers and one should always keep in mind that both Japan and Germany had battle experienced armies under their command which wasnt true for the US not on the same size. And still preperations proved to not be completed as certain battles for the US definetly showed the serious drawbacks in 1941 particularly regarding armored warefare. For that one can see the Battle of the Kasserine Pass which proved to be a huge dissaster for the American troops which have not only been bad prepaired but also had no adequate tactics in armored warefare.
They would engange usualy with tanks like the multi turret M3 "Lee" or "Grant"and light tank M3 Stuart modern German tanks in the desert
Rommel was not very impressed by the US troops. Thankefully the US troops enganged the Germans in Africa and still they went in the Normandy champain mainly with light and medium tanks like the sherman which was equal to the Panzer IV encountered in Africa to counter the German warmachine they knew about Tigers and Panthers but they didnt expected them in any large numbers as they expected only to encounter mainly the medium tank Panzer IV and Stug assault guns as those have been present in Africa. Though issue was that almost half of the used tanks in Normandy have been made of Panthers which proved to be almost invincible on the front by the most common US and brittish anti tank equipment except for the excelent 17pf (long 76mm gun) by the british which was a adequate answer on usual combat ranges and the US 76mm guns with HVAP amunition (high velocety armor pearcing) but to still get those vehicles head on with the US guns you had to engange them on almost suicide ranges and even then the possibility of the shell to fail in penetration cause of simply shattering on the tanks thick armor was very high.
It wasn't short before the end of the war that the US had in the Pershing and 90mm guns some "adquate" answer to the most common German (and later Soviet) heavy tanks. Luckily enough the Air supperiority was by the time of 1943 without any doubts above the axis but here mostly cause in the years of 1942 and 43 the axis stoped to spend a lot of concentration on new developments in air units the Germans for example never had any long range heavy bombers also their economy was not changed before late 1943 either by Albert Speehr and Guderian to increase output and have a lot more standartisations you could say tanks like the Panther and Tiger have been "almost" made by hand compared to 2000 Shermans that been made in 1 Month! on contrast there have been eventualy 2400~ Tiger I made in the whole war.
To make it short. With Pearl Harbor the US gained a lot. By our definition today cause we know the outcome. But could one expect that in such time? With knowing the vents before the war started for the US?
Dont forget in 1943 and 45 no one expected a short victory against the Japanese. Battles like Tawara, Iwo Jima and the assault on Okinawa which costed many casualties to the US showed that the will to fight by the Japanese was not broken. Not even in the lights of 1945. It was expected the war might still take till 1946 and if the emperor decided to flee to occupied land in China even till 47 hence the decision to get the Soviets in a attack on Japan (and the Soviets played that card very well sine they would have to break the neutrality with Japan! They had any "right" to refuse as they had no agressions with Japan the trade for that was to give the Soviets almost free hand in the "liberated" nations in the east how could one see in that time what issues that will cause later ...). But this estimation have been al done without the knowledge of nuclear weapons as even the highest military officers did not knew about the Nuclear weapon. Truman got not informed before he was President (and he was Vizepresident before). So without the nuclear weapon the war might have took much longer! But it didnt as we have seen.
That is one of the reasons why I doubt a place as important for the South Pacific like Pearl Harbor would have been sacrificed so easily and facing eventualy the danger of totall desturction of the harbor. No one could have foreseen in the 40s the course of the war. Not with certainty. And considering the fact that "in that year" the Japanese fleet was without any doubt superior to the US one and that in 42 even German submaries managed to damage instalations on the US coast and literaly engange ships as they leave the harbor and no one could knew what plans the Japanese had (Even a assault on the US coast was in debate) its qustionable that the Military would have enganged in such a high risk with Pearl Harbor. People in the military for example very carefully followed the war in Russia and the German "Blitzkrieg" and some feared a similar result in the US by Japanese forces eventualy.
SuAside said:
the Russian's story is vastly different, of course. if you execute half of your military's trained officers and replace them with incompetent fuckwads, you don't really want word to spread. besides, the entire russian campaign was a simple tactic of sacrificing enough soldiers to stall & then win.
Indeed it is. But when it comes to history I always tend not to go in a black and white thinking
The so called great purge in military comited by Stalin can be seen from quite a few different angles. It allowed for example as well (later of course) "fresh blood" with new ideas to enter in the high command of the military. On average in 1941 the Commanders in the high ranks of the Soviet Military have been around 20 years younger then their German counterparts which have been all in their 50s and some in their 60s even.
Also quite a lof the people that have been send to the camps by Stalin have been reactivated in the war ... just to spend it after the war again in the camps ... well.
Kahgan said:
...
The thousands of willies jeeps that the US sent were stuck in the snow the moment they arrived
You have any sources for that? Dunno I am just confused cause anything I heard about the Jeeps says they have been extremly reliable so much that Italian and German troups would do almost anything to either buy, capture or steal them (even from each other!).