Hello everyone, yet another Fallout fan pitching my tent in this particular forum. Just wanted to introduce myself, say hi and all that, but more to the point I wanted to ask all of your opinions about something that has been worrying me for a few months now the more and more I read about it.
I figure that since a good deal of you at least are/were seduced by the idea of the "fresh start" that nuclear war gives, as illustrated by the Fallout games. With that in mind, I figure you're as good a bunch as any to get feedback about some stuff I've been reading about energy and peak oil.
Now, I'm sure you folks have heard about this already, and have read about it as something we have to worry about, but not for quite a while... as illustrated by the Fallout games, in fact. But a lot I've read indicates it could happen a lot sooner than expected, and could have much worse impacts than expected.
It essentially comes down to three points: Oil (energy) availiability, food, and human psychology.
In the last 150 years, from when we first began to burn coal, energy has been wildly abundant. Fossil fuels are incredibly energy-dense, and easily transported. When an oil pocket is tapped, the pressure makes extraction very easy, which leads to very cheap oil, which in turn makes everything in our modern society run smoothly. Cars have made America become a land of suburbs. Airplanes make transport very easy, and to power anything our basic instinct is to just "plug it in." However, the undeniable bell-curve of oil production is misleading. Hubbert predicted it would peak around now, and he's been very accurate before. Of course, even if it does peak now, that means we'll have as much oil next year as last year, right? Wrong.
During those three years, demand for oil will spike. As there is less oil, more people will pay more for it, and costs will increase dramatically. They already are, if you look at crude prices. +200% increase over one year. As population increases, as China industrializes, any shortfall will be magnified tenfold. 5% production shortfalls in the 70's and in California during the 90's sent prices up by 400%. In short: when oil production slows down, it will slow down FASTER than the bell curve implies. Also, once we have 50% of the oil out of the ground, the rest will become MUCH harder to extract. Once it takes a barrel of oil energy to extract a barrel of oil, no oil company will be able to run. Alternative enrgy is based on oil as well. It takes oil to extract metals to build windmills and solar panels. It takes oil to build nuclear power plants and mine uranium.
The second crucial point is the food issue. As population has spiked, food production has increased concurrently. But this has been with MASSIVE energy inputs. 10 calories of enrgy are put into every calories we eat. That is possible only though oil. If oil costs spike more, farmers will not be able to feed the people, and people will not be able to drive to the farms. Suburbia will not be able to survive high energy prices, and many farms will not be able to further irrigate themselves. In short, we'll all go hungry as we'll be unable to convert oil calories into food calories to feed ourselves.
Lastly, human psychology. People deny that oil will run out. Govermnet statistics say that it will hiccup a little now but then increase production, forever. That is not true. Furthermore, developing countries, particularly China, will not liek being told by the market that "whoops, you got into the game to late, the party's over." I've talked to Chinese people, in China. They feel like they have the right to as much energy as we have. It is dangerous to think how far governments might go keep enough oil to even supply their jets, tanks, and ships. Without those, governments lose their teeth, and you cannot fly a F18 on a battery. People will fight to retain an unrealistic lifestyle. VP Cheney said our way of life is non negotiable, and thinking like that could lead to mass deception and maybe even war.
So in short, that's why I'm worried, and that's why I've been thinking about Fallout. Try going to www.lifeaftertheoilcrash.net if you're further interested.
See you in the wastelands,
the minstrel of the wastes, The Wastrel
I figure that since a good deal of you at least are/were seduced by the idea of the "fresh start" that nuclear war gives, as illustrated by the Fallout games. With that in mind, I figure you're as good a bunch as any to get feedback about some stuff I've been reading about energy and peak oil.
Now, I'm sure you folks have heard about this already, and have read about it as something we have to worry about, but not for quite a while... as illustrated by the Fallout games, in fact. But a lot I've read indicates it could happen a lot sooner than expected, and could have much worse impacts than expected.
It essentially comes down to three points: Oil (energy) availiability, food, and human psychology.
In the last 150 years, from when we first began to burn coal, energy has been wildly abundant. Fossil fuels are incredibly energy-dense, and easily transported. When an oil pocket is tapped, the pressure makes extraction very easy, which leads to very cheap oil, which in turn makes everything in our modern society run smoothly. Cars have made America become a land of suburbs. Airplanes make transport very easy, and to power anything our basic instinct is to just "plug it in." However, the undeniable bell-curve of oil production is misleading. Hubbert predicted it would peak around now, and he's been very accurate before. Of course, even if it does peak now, that means we'll have as much oil next year as last year, right? Wrong.
During those three years, demand for oil will spike. As there is less oil, more people will pay more for it, and costs will increase dramatically. They already are, if you look at crude prices. +200% increase over one year. As population increases, as China industrializes, any shortfall will be magnified tenfold. 5% production shortfalls in the 70's and in California during the 90's sent prices up by 400%. In short: when oil production slows down, it will slow down FASTER than the bell curve implies. Also, once we have 50% of the oil out of the ground, the rest will become MUCH harder to extract. Once it takes a barrel of oil energy to extract a barrel of oil, no oil company will be able to run. Alternative enrgy is based on oil as well. It takes oil to extract metals to build windmills and solar panels. It takes oil to build nuclear power plants and mine uranium.
The second crucial point is the food issue. As population has spiked, food production has increased concurrently. But this has been with MASSIVE energy inputs. 10 calories of enrgy are put into every calories we eat. That is possible only though oil. If oil costs spike more, farmers will not be able to feed the people, and people will not be able to drive to the farms. Suburbia will not be able to survive high energy prices, and many farms will not be able to further irrigate themselves. In short, we'll all go hungry as we'll be unable to convert oil calories into food calories to feed ourselves.
Lastly, human psychology. People deny that oil will run out. Govermnet statistics say that it will hiccup a little now but then increase production, forever. That is not true. Furthermore, developing countries, particularly China, will not liek being told by the market that "whoops, you got into the game to late, the party's over." I've talked to Chinese people, in China. They feel like they have the right to as much energy as we have. It is dangerous to think how far governments might go keep enough oil to even supply their jets, tanks, and ships. Without those, governments lose their teeth, and you cannot fly a F18 on a battery. People will fight to retain an unrealistic lifestyle. VP Cheney said our way of life is non negotiable, and thinking like that could lead to mass deception and maybe even war.
So in short, that's why I'm worried, and that's why I've been thinking about Fallout. Try going to www.lifeaftertheoilcrash.net if you're further interested.
See you in the wastelands,
the minstrel of the wastes, The Wastrel
