Aristide sucked. The other local despots are worried about their position. This is a question of staying in power for them.
After Aristide, what?
Mar 2nd 2004
From The Economist Global Agenda
An international peacekeeping force has begun arriving in Haiti after the overthrow of its president, Jean-Bertrand Aristide. Can the impoverished country now overcome two centuries of post-colonial misery?
UNTIL the last moment, Haiti’s embattled president insisted he would stay in office until the end of his mandate in 2006, despite an armed uprising by rebels determined to overthrow him. But, having lost the support of America—once his protector—Jean-Bertrand Aristide was bundled on to a plane by American guards on Sunday February 29th, leaving behind a letter saying he had resigned to prevent a bloodbath. Within hours, the United Nations Security Council had authorised a peacekeeping force for the impoverished Caribbean country. And on Monday, several hundred American, Canadian and French troops landed in Haiti, as the vanguard of the UN force. After crossing the Atlantic, Mr Aristide’s plane arrived in the Central African Republic, from where he was expected to seek asylum in South Africa.
Ten years ago, the Clinton administration sent 20,000 American troops to restore Mr Aristide to power after he had been ejected in a military coup. George Bush’s administration was not as keen as its predecessor on the Haitian leader, a left-leaning former priest. Nevertheless, until last week, Mr Bush’s officials had insisted that, as Haiti’s elected president, Mr Aristide should be allowed to serve out his term of office. America backed a proposal by Haiti’s neighbours in the Caribbean Community (Caricom), in which Mr Aristide would share power with his political opponents. But the opposition parties rejected this, demanding his resignation. And the rebels—a motley crew, ranging from ex-soldiers to gang members—continued advancing towards the capital, Port-au-Prince.
With no army (it had been disbanded after the last coup) and only 5,000 police, Mr Aristide’s chances of surviving the rebellion looked ever more slender. Last Wednesday, Haiti’s former colonial ruler, France, called on him to resign. The next day, his fate seemed to be sealed when America’s secretary of state, Colin Powell, made it clear that he had come round to France’s point of view.
The rebels were given a warm welcome as they held a victory parade in Port-au-Prince on Monday, watched over by American marines. Meanwhile, the exiled Mr Aristide claimed that America had forced him to leave, which Mr Bush’s spokesman dismissed as “complete nonsense”. Some of Mr Bush’s Democratic opponents accused him of staging a coup to remove Mr Aristide. But, after talking with the deposed leader by telephone, Charles Rangel, a Democratic congressman from New York, implied that Mr Aristide's talk of being kidnapped was a bit of an exaggeration. American forces had only “strongly suggested that he get out of town,” said Mr Rangel.
American officials said they were seeking to form a temporary government for Haiti, bringing together supporters and opponents of Mr Aristide, plus a representative of Caricom, until elections were held. The country’s chief justice, Boniface Alexandre, has been named as president, in line with Haiti’s constitution. However, this needs the approval of parliament—and at the moment Haiti does not have one: a continuing row over the parliamentary elections in 2000 has prevented the holding of fresh elections, and the parliament was dissolved after most of its members’ mandates ran out earlier this year.
As a French colony, Haiti enjoyed fabulous riches from its sugar-cane crop. But now, after two centuries of factional infighting, misgovernment and corruption, not to mention 32 coups (33 if you include Mr Aristide’s ousting), Haiti is the poorest country in the Americas. The average income of its 7.5m people is just over a dollar a day, and perhaps a third of them are chronically malnourished. Since the uprising began in early February, the UN has been unable to distribute rations to the more than a quarter of a million people that it feeds in the north of the country. One of the main rebel leaders, Guy Philippe, has promised to co-operate with the UN peacekeepers. But since there seems no credible alternative to Mr Aristide as Haitian leader, it is hard to imagine the country’s troubles ending soon.
As Haiti has descended into a chaos of looting, factional fighting and prison breakouts, it has threatened a repeat of the refugee crisis of the mid-1990s, when tens of thousands of Haitians fleeing violence washed up on the shores of America and other Caribbean islands. Last week, America’s coastguards repatriated around 500 Florida-bound Haitians they had intercepted at sea. Refugees have also arrived in Jamaica and Cuba. Mr Bush’s apparent change of mind in favour of pressing Mr Aristide to quit may have been influenced by fears of a refugee crisis in the middle of his campaign for re-election.
Blaming Bush
Mr Bush's Democratic opponents are accusing him, variously, of either neglecting Haiti or of meddling in its affairs by orchestrating a coup. Perhaps more awkward for Mr Bush is the stinging criticism of America's actions by Haiti's neighbours: Caricom’s chairman, the Jamaican prime minister, P.J. Patterson, deplored what he called Mr Aristide’s “removal” and the failure of the “international community” to prevent this. He also questioned the legality of the American-backed move to instal Mr Alexandre as president.
Mr Patterson said that Mr Aristide’s downfall “sets a dangerous precedent for democratically elected governments anywhere and everywhere, as it promotes the removal of duly elected persons from office by the power of rebel forces.” Indeed, in Venezuela, opposition groups seeking the resignation of President Hugo Chávez took heart from events across the Caribbean. In another day of violent clashes in the Venezuelan capital, Caracas, on Sunday, a banner reading “Bye bye Aristide, Chávez you’re next” was carried through the streets.
Mr Aristide’s forced exit also comes less than five months after violent protests forced the resignation of Bolivia’s elected president, Gonzalo Sánchez de Lozada. Though most of Latin America and the Caribbean is no longer under the heel of dictators, as much of the region was until the 1980s, democracy is still fragile in many parts—and it seems unlikely that it will be strengthened by Mr Aristide’s defeat at the hands of a rag-tag army of gunmen.