North Korea and the Bomb

Gonzales- if the US were to attack North Korea, I don't think democracy would be the goal.

The idea would be more to protect US financial and capital interests. Japan and Korea are important US allies- not just militarily but economcially. The threat of a nuclear attack by an unstable regime the greater the financial interest to nuke the North Koreans off the planet, or at least defang them of nuclear weapons

If it comes down to a nuclear exchange between the US and China, I doubt the issue of China's large army will matter much under nuclear attack. During the cold war, mass military targets were key targets of opportunity. Dispersed militaries are more likely to survive nuclear attack.

But you also assume that the US would actually attempt to occupy China. Perhaps not. In the past winning powers didn't occupy.

That is of course assuming the US would be capable of occupation. Should the Chinese get off a good hit on the US- say by launching a strike from a SLBM, the US would no longer be the dominant power in the world.
 
Ashmo said:
It's currently not profitable to invade North Korea as far as I remember.

Iran on the other hand promises some economical gain. Plus: Its name is almost identical to Iraq's so it has to be evil.

I do not think it would be profitable to invade Iran since it could set the whole area on fire.
Remember, most of the worlds oil comes from the area, a los of it most certainly would lead to a worldwide economical crisis.

And because of the same reason America and China never would start a war because of a unimportant country like North Korea, an econimical crisis could not be avoided.
 
Ashmo said:
Y'know, when the USA was offered to abandon nuclear warfare along with the rest of the civilised world, they neglected it and decided to keep their weapons for self-defense (a concept not unfamiliar to most red-necked Americans, I'd wager).

"Hay America, you drop your nukes and we'll drop ours. Ready? 1... 2......"

Now if the only legitimate claim to possess nuclear weapons is self-defense, how can anyone think bad of North Korea for wanting to have nukes to keep the US from attacking them?

Because they're not using their nukes for self-defense purposes, they're using them for extortion, as a bargaining chip.

I know how "hip" and "rad" it is to take potshots at American policy, but let's be realistic here.
 
Extortion? So blackmailing other countries into not attacking them is an action not worth being pointed out as questionable?

If the US won't get rid of their nukes and even consider developing more advanced tactical nukes for field use, why should any other country then dispose of their nukes or cease further construction of nukes?

With a fascistoid government that seems to threaten to invade every country that opposes it the US isn't exactly someone I'd negotiate with without having a good reason not to invade my country.

The main threat the US is facing right now is radical terrorism and terrorists don't need nuclear missiles to lead a war and they don't have a nation that can be attacked or blackmailed into peace.

I think that, apart from the fact that the US is once again leading its wars OUTSIDE its borders, those terrorists are doing pretty fine against the almighty superpower.
I also think that in the long run, unless the US changes its policy towards terrorism from military assault to prevention, the US cannot win that war.

I think I worry too much. Maybe I should just ignore politics and be a productive member of society and lock up my brain in a fallout shelter. It'd sure make some things a lot easier.
 
If the US won't get rid of their nukes and even consider developing more advanced tactical nukes for field use, why should any other country then dispose of their nukes or cease further construction of nukes?

Because we'll fuck them up. Simple, really.

You see, the only countries that should be allowed to retain a nuclear arsenal are those that already do, such as the US, France, England, Russia, etc. Nations which have proven their reluctance to use these munitions.

In order to maintain the Status Quo, no new power can be allowed to proliferate Nuclear Arms. Status Quo, you see.

The main threat the US is facing right now is radical terrorism and terrorists don't need nuclear missiles to lead a war and they don't have a nation that can be attacked or blackmailed into peace.

So, then, why do the Russians and the Europeans still have their nukes? Oh that's right, because America is such a huge threat. Silly me. I wonder why we're keeping ours, then?

I think that, apart from the fact that the US is once again leading its wars OUTSIDE its borders, those terrorists are doing pretty fine against the almighty superpower.
I also think that in the long run, unless the US changes its policy towards terrorism from military assault to prevention, the US cannot win that war.

Why hello, Irrelevance. Haven't seen you in a while. How are the kids?

I think I worry too much. Maybe I should just ignore politics and be a productive member of society and lock up my brain in a fallout shelter. It'd sure make some things a lot easier.

I'm not saying you should lock up your brain, just that you should use it.
 
Meh, ignore me. Our opinions regarding politics differ too much.

I still wonder what your argument for any country threatend by the US (last time I checked constantly saying a particular country should be disposed of wasn't exactly considered a proof of friendship) NOT to pursuit the idea of going "nukular" other than risking American intervention (which doesn't exactly cut it if you consider the possibility of that to happen regardless to be high enough to piss off the rest of the world) because either I missed it or you didn't reply to that.

--

I laughed my ass off at your remark about irrelevance tho. I guess I ramble too much -- two weeks of slavery education can do that to your brain, y'know? (and I still got one week to go!)

Meh, I better shut up until I've fully recovered from the retard pills forcefed to me in the past two weeks.
 
I laughed my ass off at your remark about irrelevance tho. I guess I ramble too much -- two weeks of slavery education can do that to your brain, y'know? (and I still got one week to go!)

Meh, I better shut up until I've fully recovered from the retard pills forcefed to me in the past two weeks.

I'm intrigued. It sounds like a brave new world in Bavaria.

because either I missed it or you didn't reply to that.

I wasn't sure what I'd be replying to. Still don't, really. =/

Are you saying that their claimed motives are questionable? Because I'm not saying that isn't case.
 
Ashmo said:
Extortion? So blackmailing other countries into not attacking them is an action not worth being pointed out as questionable?

Well Ashmo- In the last 60 years there have been no more cases of "total war" in part because of the threat of nuclear weapons from the two states that had the most= a success of deterrence. The development of western europe owes quite a bit to the deterrence of the US nuclear umbrella.

All things being considered, deterrence is not a bad policy and has kept us out of another major war (war between major powers). Since world war 2 there have been more wars, sure. But those were minor compared to the possible.

Ok, so I am trying to prove the the non-occurrence of something is due to a cause- a difficult thing to prove. Yes, but considering that the Great Peace of the 19th Century lasted less than 50 years, that's not bad.

Oh and someone made a comment about the US demobilising it's nuclear weapons. The only time that has really been considered was during the 1950s when the Soviets paid Picasso to do that Peacedoves bit. This was at a time when the conventional power favored the Soviets and they were developing nuclear and missile technology to compete with the US.

IT would have been a coup had the Soviets been able to get the US to unilaterally demobilize based on a promise that they would too. Such a policy would have been insane.

If the US won't get rid of their nukes and even consider developing more advanced tactical nukes for field use, why should any other country then dispose of their nukes or cease further construction of nukes?

That is a good point. The US loses the moral high ground on this debate because it abides by the national imperative of maintaining security through deterrence.

With a fascistoid government that seems to threaten to invade every country that opposes it the US isn't exactly someone I'd negotiate with without having a good reason not to invade my country.

As much as I dislike Bush, I wouldn't call him a facist. And your use of facism here is perhaps a bit too stretched. Don't forget, democracies have been imperialists too.

I think you're perception is being limited to recent events while a longer term view might help. North Korea and South Korea never made peace, and over the past 50 years, the NOrth Koreans have committed acts that would be normally considered acts of war.

Furthermore the use of force as a coercive instrument to force the policies of other countries has a history that goes back to

Thucydides-
For we both alike know that into the discussion of human affairs the question of justice enters only where the pressure of necessity is equal, and that the powerful exact what they can, and the weak grant what they must"

But also from Thucydides-
Wars spring from unseen and generally insignificant causes, the first outbreak being often but an explosion of anger.

Sad truth, but there you have it. The history of the world is of countries making demands form others.

The main threat the US is facing right now is radical terrorism and terrorists don't need nuclear missiles to lead a war and they don't have a nation that can be attacked or blackmailed into peace.

THe destruction of a major US city would, I think, hurt the US severely. WOuld it destroy the US as the major power in the world, probably not.

No, the threat to the US is the country that can destroy many of our cities, and thereby destroy the economic power of the country and the social structure that depends upon that economic vitality.

And that would be a very sad day.

National Security is threatened by that which can most undercut the things a country values most.

But I would also argue that those threats can come from domestic sources as well. If the price of fighting terrorism is the sacrifice of our democracy, than it is our own policies that we must fear.

I think that, apart from the fact that the US is once again leading its wars OUTSIDE its borders, those terrorists are doing pretty fine against the almighty superpower.

The US defense budget is, I believe, currently only about 5% of GNP (5% might be the entire budget, but I don't think so). That's huge in absolute terms, but still not so significant in relative terms.

IN the end, the war in Iraq, even with near 1,500 dead, is still little more than minor bushfire war in a little corner of the world.

A war in North Korea- that would be more serious.

I also think that in the long run, unless the US changes its policy towards terrorism from military assault to prevention, the US cannot win that war.

Not only that, but it's cheaper on the tax dollar, even if those payoffs to defense contractors are less significant.

Yes, I agree. THis war on terrorism is, I think-
(1) A knee jerk reaction to 9-11
(2) The completion of a family project
(3) directed towards the long-term economic interests of the US in energy
(4) Could probably have been avoided decades ago.


I think I worry too much. Maybe I should just ignore politics and be a productive member of society and lock up my brain in a fallout shelter. It'd sure make some things a lot easier.

ACtually you make some good points.
 
"Hey, Japs. Do this. Do that. No? Are you questioning Uncle Sam? See those Koreans there? Those ones, eating grass and living in medieval poverty? Yes? Well, they have nuclear weapons. So, like, do this. Or be nuked by Kimmy"
 
The Japanese could, if they wanted to, build a bomb. If the N Koreans don't let go theirs it would be a surprise if the Japanese didn't build one.

Supposedly the Pakistan bomb was partially supported by the US. Why not Japan?

But you're right Wooz, being under the nuclear umbrella also means that the US can push it's allies as well- though that has it's limits. When the Europeans were planning to buy oil from Soviet Russia, the US objected, and the Euros ignored the US. Also, the Europeans had their own weapons (though could you really trust the French to use theirs?)

Thucydides again, about the powerful and the weak.

But also lets not forgot the the US was the major power in the last Korean War, regardless of whether it was a UN action. At the time Japan was a figment of what it would become and the great industrialization of Korea had yet to happen. North Korea launched that war with the support of Stalin. Yet the US did commit to them and paid the price for it.

Would the Europeans?

When the Germans were divided and the Soviets were getting rid of the people in East German it didn't like, West Germany came under the US umbrella with a promise that the US would launch if the Russian went over the border. That held the Europe to a Cold War status quo.

Would the French have done that? No the French dropped out of NATO and let the Germans take care of themselves.

When Russia was thinking of Poland as a buffer from the West or perhaps a launch pad into Germany, there were plenty of Americans (including Kennan who is credited as architect of Cold War policy) who advised we leave Europe alone. Instead the US put New York up for West Berlin.

Now you could argue that Europe was essential to US strategic interests- yes, but not as much as survival. Might the US have decided not to commit and rather focus on its interest in Latin America- it's historic sphere of interest- you bet.
 
Good to see at least SOMEONE appreciates my posts.


As for the slave ed:

It's not Bavarian and it's part of our draft. If you don't go to the military (i.e. declare that you have ethical problems with killing people) and still get drafted, you become a servant of the civil service for the same amount of time any other male would be drafted to military service (i.e. nine months atm).

Part of that slavery -- I mean "social labor" -- is taking a three week course in the middle of nowhere. Throughout the course you learn about important topics like ... well ... political education (meaning prevention of violence and ... oh, wait, I think that's it -- unless you count watching a non-educational movie on the Third Reich as political education too) and ... oh, right we were told how to prevent getting VDs (no, not Vault Dwellers) and what the average penis size is (did you know any penis in between 11 and 17 cm is considered "average"? weird I say!), which was collectively referred to as AIDS/HIV education -- God knows what penis size has to do with working in a hospital, tho.

At least we get payed for the forced labor. Below minimum wage, but at least it's money.
 
Makes me glad to live in a country so big we have enough boobs that want to join the military.
 
Bradylama said:
Makes me glad to live in a country so big we have enough boobs that want to join the military.

THAT isn't the problem. The problem is that we have enough people who value forced labor higher than personal freedom.

Ah, well, at least we're not a dictatorship anymore.
 
welsh is right, the Japanese are definitely technologically capable of building a bomb. I do wonder, however, what the US response would be if they did. Japan is our ally, but i don't think that means we would just outright support it.

As a couple of you have mentioned before, being under the US nuclear umbrella (never heard that term before actually, but it fits) does mean we could try and push Japan into not building a bomb if they decided to construct one.

I wonder how the rest of the western world would feel if Japan became a nuclear power?
 
I got the overall impression that Japan tries to play "Bimbo the funny slave" for the USA at the moment and doubt they are going to jeopardize it over a nuclear affair unless the US turns against them first.

But maybe that's just me. I don't pay much attention to Japanese foreign politics.
 
I vaguely remember someone from these forums saying that the US was encouraging Japan to develop nuclear weapons. Am I imagining things? If not, how official was that line? All I could find on a quick net search was this.

http://www.japantoday.com/e/?content=comment&id=324
Marc Erikson

On Jan 3, Washington Post syndicated columnist Charles Krauthammer wrote, "We (the U.S.) should go to the Chinese and tell them plainly that if they do not join us in squeezing North Korea we will endorse any Japanese attempt to create a nuclear deterrent of its own. Even better, we would sympathetically regard any request by Japan to acquire American nuclear missiles as an immediate and interim deterrent. If our nightmare is a nuclear North Korea, China's is a nuclear Japan. It's time to share the nightmares."

I am not going to pay for the archived post article here, but I am curious about its contents.
 
Encouraging the Japanese to be defensively self-sufficient makes sense concerning our current state of military policy.

Japan is an allocation of resources that the military can't afford if they're required to be deployed to any point in the world. Of course we would still maintain a "right of way" in the event of North Korean aggression, but the oppucation costs enough as it is.
 
Ashmo said:
did you know any penis in between 11 and 17 cm is considered "average"? weird I say!

Well there you go, I learned something.

It would be useful in the short term to start arming allies, but in the long term you have only added more dangers. Just because they like you know doesn't mean they will in the future, the reverse is true also. You can never tell how politics or attitudes will change in the future.

I did hear there are some right wing movements in Japan that sounded wacky. Dressing up in imitation SS uniforms and such. No idea if this is a handful of lunatics or something serious though.
 
Turnip said:
Ashmo said:
It's currently not profitable to invade North Korea as far as I remember.


And because of the same reason America and China never would start a war because of a unimportant country like North Korea, an econimical crisis could not be avoided.

Funny, I think some folks might have said something like that about Serbia, about 100 years ago.
 
Indeed, it's too risky to dismiss things off hand or presume to be able to predict politics accurately, especially when the past has given so many warnings against such behaviour.
 
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