Theoretical Question - Taiwan, and YOU as U.S President

[Chancellor Kremlin]

Okay, being a student of International Relations, this is a topic that interests me, so please forgive me for asking this question.

What I will do is pose a series of theoretical scenarios involving a possible military conflict between the U.S, Japan and China, over Taiwan. Assuming YOU are the president of the United States, what would you do in the following scenarios, and WHY. But first, some notes to keep in mind:

Notes:

- The U.S is interpreted to be obliged to aid Taiwain in its defence should the need arise through the Taiwan Relations Act of 1979.

- The U.S has stationed the 7th Fleet in Yokosuka, Japan, ostensibly for the reasons of protecting Taiwan.

- China has stated any declaration of independence by Taiwan will results in military intervention.

- Military simulations in high tech computers have shown victories for the ROC (Republic of China - Taiwan) without U.S support.

- China currently possesses around 150 nuclear weapons. It has ballistic missiles capable of targeting the U.S mainland, and 3 nuclear ballistic submarines. The range of the weapons on board, if fired from the west coast of the US, could target all of America.

- China has released a white paper in 2005 asserting it will never be the first nation to use nuclear weapons, or to threathen their use. Only Pakistan and China have a 'no first use policy', unless struck first with a nuclear weapons. The U.S, Russia, India, France and Israel all agree preemptive nuclear strikes should be an option.

So, with these facts in mind, I give you the following scenarios:

A)

A military coup occurs in Taiwan. An oligarchy of Generals come to power, and declare immediate Independence from China. Chinese aircraft, submarines and cruise missiles attack military targets in Taiwain. A subsequent invasion force is being assembled. Taiwan requests help from the U.S.

What do you do?

B)

A military coup occurs in Taiwan. An oligarchy of Generals come to power, and declare immediate Independence from China. Chinese aircraft, submarines and cruise missiles attack military targets in Taiwan. A subsequent invasion force is being assembled. Taiwan requests help from the U.S. As the seventh fleet sails from its home bases in Japan in aid of Taiwan, a nuclear warhead is detonated at sea many miles ahead of the fleet. The warning is clear: Do not intervene.

What do you do?

C)

China, wanting to finally reunite with its Taiwanese neighbour by force and wanting to end the dispute once and for all, launches missile strikes against military targets in Taiwain and has paratroopers and comandos land on the island through landing craft and air transport. These secure key beachheads and airfields for a full scale invasion to take place. Taiwain asks for help from the U.S.

What do you do?

D)

China, wanting to finally reunite with its Taiwanese neighbour by force and wanting to end the dispute once and for all, launches missile strikes against military targets in Taiwain and has paratroopers and comandos land on the island through landing craft and air transport. These secure key beachheads and airfields for a full scale invasion to take place. Taiwan asks for help from the U.S. China warns the U.S that if it intervenes, it will liquidate U.S assets and treasuries in Chinese hands worth more than 1.3 trillion dollars, effectively heralding the collapse of the dollar and plunging the U.S into a never before seen economic crisis of castastrophic and possibly irrevesible proportions.

What do you do?

And finally, E)

China, in full knowledge the U.S will aid Taiwan should it be invaded, launches pre-emptive strikes against the U.S 7th fleet stationed at Japan, including Japanese Self Defence elements stationed nearby. The attack sinks 5 destroyers, 4 submarines, one aircraft carrier and numerous support vesels. Airbases are also targeted. The attack costs roughly the lives of 2073 american servicemen. Japanese losses ammount to 643. Immediately, China invades Taiwan.

What do you do?

 

[GarfunkeL]

Considering that in all situations, UN would most likely be powerless, alot depends also on Russia and how Russo-American relations stand, here's my take:

A)

Keep selling arms and supplies to Taiwan, no direct help because of the coup. State department will find an loophole to excuse this.

B)

Same as A otherwise but try to get international damnation againts China thanks to the nuke-show. Should be quite possible, leading up to most of the rest of the world issuing sanctions against China. Might cause a nasty backslash in western economies, but meh.

C)

Set China an 24-hour deadline to withdraw while sending 7th Fleet to the area. Try to get international coalition or UN agreement, like in Korean war. Send arms and supplies to Taiwan for free and hope that american freighter will be attacked by chinese navy, giving USA a good casus belli for larger operations and public support. Draw up plans for war-time economy which excludes China.

D)

Same.

E)

Easy. Revive the spirit of Pearl Harbor, declare war against China, declare martial law and war-time economy. Institute draft. Demand NATO and SEATO to declare war against China as well. Demand UN to dismiss China from the organisation. Use WTO and similar organisations to freeze and liquidate all Chinese assets globally. Use ally-treaties with Saudis to force them to stop selling oil to China. Stop all freighters carrying goods to/from China and seize the cargo. Warn Iran that still selling oil/gas to China will be considered as an hostile act. Get atleast EU and hopefully most of UN-members to stop trading with China and issue sanctions against it. Enjoy popularity polls clocking regularly over 80% approval from US citizens.


****

Considering that Taiwanese generals are most likely quite aware of the military situation, it's kinda hard to logically justify a coup that they would orchestrate. And option E is just a pure suicide for China, hard to see the Party ever being that stupid unless Kim-Jong-Il types get to power. That leaves us C & D as the most likely ones but realizing that China has tied itself economically to the rest of the world, those two are pretty far-fetched as well. Still, in international politics, everything is possible.

Good mind-game atleast.

 

[iridium_ionizer]

- China has released a white paper in 2005 asserting it will never be the first nation to use nuclear weapons, or to threathen their use. Only Pakistan and China have a 'no first use policy', unless struck first with a nuclear weapons. The U.S, Russia, India, France and Israel all agree preemptive nuclear strikes should be an option.

Do you really think that if nuclear missiles are launched and detonate we (or anyone outside of a small group of military personnel from both countries) will know who launched first?

D) China, wanting to finally reunite with its Taiwanese neighbour by force and wanting to end the dispute once and for all, launches missile strikes against military targets in Taiwain and has paratroopers and comandos land on the island through landing craft and air transport. These secure key beachheads and airfields for a full scale invasion to take place. Taiwan asks for help from the U.S. China warns the U.S that if it intervenes, it will liquidate U.S assets and treasuries in Chinese hands worth more than 1.3 trillion dollars, effectively heralding the collapse of the dollar and plunging the U.S into a never before seen economic crisis of castastrophic and possibly irrevesible proportions.

Options C or D are most likely. Keep in mind that any rockets or missiles launched will be purely conventional (unless they use knock-out gas or something of the like if the Geneva conventions permit). Even a warning detonation of a nuclear weapon could easily escalate to tactical nukes and then to an all-out nuclear strike.

Over the past couple of years there have been several news stories about how China is increasing its military strength specifically in the area of fast assault boats. The distance between Taiwan and the mainland is not very far - especially when compared with the distance between Taiwan and the U.S. Naval base in Japan. If China can invade and secure Taiwan before the U.S. can get an aircraft carrier down there then the U.S. will probably institute a minor trade embargo for a while, but will eventually accept China's new acquisition.

Yes, China's holdings in U.S. currency and treasuries does provide a certain amount of leverage, but they will not likely want to provoke too much of an economic war. After all, the U.S. is the world's biggest importer of China's goods.

 

[alec]

A - B - C - D - E: Nuke China.

This is a no-brainer, really.

 

[Bal-Sagoth]

You should also ask it in these forums on military.com


US and China: http://forums.military.com/eve/forums/a/frm/f/8801914822

Future War: http://forums.military.com/eve/forums/a/frm/f/8001934822

The people on there love military mind games and some are encyclopedias for military tactics/equipment. They could probably paint out some fairly entertaining theories on how your scenarios would go down.


Here is an interesting read on China's efforts in producing an aircraft carrier.

http://www.globalsecurity.org/military/world/china/cv.htm

 

[Patton89]

On topic:
If the chinese get there before US, and take it over, yes US would accept the situation. They have no real intrests to fight a war against chinese, they are bit reluctant to REALLY keep the guarantee they gave to Taiwan. Noone wants to fight a war against nation with 100+ million military service aged men.

But if they get there intime, yes they would have to keep their promise,otherwise its political suicide for the goverment.

And China wont really go that far and liquidate US assets, china is dependant on US and US is dependant in US, and honestly, China really doesnt give a damn about the small little island, if they have to choose between possible war with US AND economic repecussions, or letting the generals take over.

Sure, they will put a trade embargo on them, and stop all trade deals with them, cut all transit connections, and even send fleet and army to have exercises near taiwan. But INVADE ? unlikely. They are too smart to do that.

Off topic:

if its long in the future, both Japan and US might have powered armor troops.
Look at hal-5, its japanese, but it increases users strenght. Soon theyll just weld in armour, advanced power unit and separate air purification unit, and voila, PA. If im president in that situation, i say, INVADE CHINA. Time for Operation: T-51b. Im just joking.

 

[Herr Mike]

I think the US policy is that if Taiwan declares independence, they won't get military support. But who knows what would happen. Against Taiwan alone they would eventually win but it would be very nasty fight. A lot of Taiwan is mountains and jungle, and they have millions of trained reservists.

if the US was involved, along with friends most likely, well, China couldn't win such a war. I don't think they'd try anything. I don't believe they have an aircraft carrier, so they'd have no hope of naval supremecy, and the air force would be beaten. After that, what would they do?

 

[Bal-Sagoth]

if the US was involved, along with friends most likely, well, China couldn't win such a war. I don't think they'd try anything. I don't believe they have an aircraft carrier, so they'd have no hope of naval supremecy, and the air force would be beaten. After that, what would they do?

As it stands in a strictly navy vs navy battle our Carrier Battle Groups would wipe the floor with the "People's Liberation Army Navy". I find it hard to believe they would not consider using tactical nukes against us in a naval showdown.


Nuclear weapons really make it tough to pick a winner in any scenario you lay out. We could sit here and debate military strength,technology,manpower. etc all day.
In the end it all comes down to the fact both the United States and China are sitting on a shitload of nuclear weapons.

The only question is would we use them?

 

[Chancellor Kremlin]

Do you really think that if nuclear missiles are launched and detonate we (or anyone outside of a small group of military personnel from both countries) will know who launched first?

Thats not the point. The point is these nations have publicly agreed not to use them first, while most western countries cling onto the possibly suicidal strategy of employing them first, especially if the attacked nation has second strike capability (which China does). So figure out which one of the above strategies is more likely to cause a nuclear war.

As for the options, option E is the only one that undeniably justifies military action against China, as it is a clear causus beli against Japan and the U.S. However, it is still a possible option.

The U.S should worry more about the last two options. One will very very probably result in a nuclear war, and the other will financially ruin the U.S. I have read in quite a few different books and online articles that China liquidating U.S assets isn't very far fetched. One went as far as saying China would privately announce to the U.S it will annex Taiwan, and for the U.S not to intervene in full knowledge of the consequences. This is a scenario being analysed by both IR scholars and academics and economists, and both agree the consequences would be dire for both, but the U.S would suffer much more.

I liked Jerfunkel's response. I don't see why the U.S would be willing to risk nuclear war over a piece of land surrounded by seas thousands of miles away. Nuclear weapon should be reserved only for immediate defence of the homeland, say if the enemy carriers and troop transports are within landing range of your beaches, or something like that. Risking extinction for something that will have no immediate affect over US citizens is beyond me.

I never understood that in human nature. We risked extinction in the cold war to protect allies of allies of allies in Western Europe and beyond, all in the name of capitalism, democracy, freedom and so on. Today we risk it again over Taiwan. Why does it not occur to the mind that it is a better outcome for both if we just let war take its course.

- Russia invades Western Europe. War is waged. NATO Defeated. Europe becomes communist. U.S sole 'beacon of freedom and prosperity'. Communism stagnates. Revolutions begin. Communism collapses into itself. Europe free and capitalist once more.

- Russia invades Western Europe. Nuclear exchange begins. Everybody dies.

- China invades Taiwan. U.S does not intervene. Taiwan and China reunite syombolicaly ending the 1949 civil war. The U.S has to all intents and purposes ceded regional hegemony to China. China amasses a fleet of equal capabilities as to the U.S. A pacific war begins and the U.S is defeated. Chinese orchestrate invasion of U.S homeland. With a massively bigger military aparatus and human resources, invasion and subjugation is easy. China becomes global hegemon. U.S humiliated, becomes semi-communist. Eventually, the Chinese empire begins to desintegrate. U.S resistance and independence movements gain ground. China forced to leave U.S. Regime change at home means China in political turmoil and in no position to be a hegemon no longer. U.S declares independence and begins to regain its former glory.

- China invades Taiwan. U.S goes for help. Escalates. Nuclear exchanges begin. Everybody dies.

While values, ideals, principles and regimes are all mutable, changeable and non-universal, extinction is not. Logically we should prefer bowing down do new masters (in the form of a new ideal - capitalism/communism/fascism etc - or regime change) rather than commit suicide on a large scale. Masters, ideals, principles and so on can be changed, abrogated and reversed over time. Extinction cannot.

 

[Bal-Sagoth]

Logically we should prefer bowing down do new masters (in the form of a new ideal - capitalism/communism/fascism etc - or regime change) rather than commit suicide on a large scale.

You underestimate how stubborn Americans are.

The idea of "bowing down" to anything with Communist or Fascist in the name does not sit well with many of us.

 

[Critter]

we should prefer bowing down do new masters (in the form of a new ideal - capitalism/communism/fascism etc - or regime change)

Coming from close friends of mine in charge of network security for the USAF: Start learning Mandarin

 

[GarfunkeL]

Haha and no, chinese nuclear weapons are pretty much a joke. As far as we know, those missiles are relics of early cold-war. The locations are well-known by western intelligence agencies as are their capabilities. Inserting a DELTA or SAS team to disable them wouldn't be that far-fetched. Or a bombing run which disables their shields, making the missiles impossible to launch. Remember, US easily has the technology to put B-2 bombers in position to launch GPS-guided bombs to blow those launch-shields to kingdom to come. No-one has (atleast publicly) the capability to even find B-2's, not to mention intercept them. And those bombs are pretty well impossible to intercept as well.

So USA has a very good chance to disable China's nuclear capability.

 

[Bal-Sagoth]

Before I get into the debate about Chinese Vs. America military wise lets take the convo into another direction real fast.

Which nations would you expect to side with China in the event of war with the United States?

Also for the sake of argument lets go with which nations would support the United States as well.

For the U.S. I would go ahead and throw in the obvious ones:

United Kingdom,Canada,Japan, South Korea, Taiwan is an obvious, etc.

 

[Chancellor Kremlin]

You underestimate how stubborn Americans are.

The idea of "bowing down" to anything with Communist or Fascist in the name does not sit well with many of us.

Well, I know exactly how stubborn Americans are. But your stubborness will doom us all.

we should prefer bowing down do new masters (in the form of a new ideal - capitalism/communism/fascism etc - or regime change)

Coming from close friends of mine in charge of network security for the USAF: Start learning Mandarin

Im trying, but its godamn hard.

Haha and no, chinese nuclear weapons are pretty much a joke. As far as we know, those missiles are relics of early cold-war. The locations are well-known by western intelligence agencies as are their capabilities. Inserting a DELTA or SAS team to disable them wouldn't be that far-fetched. Or a bombing run which disables their shields, making the missiles impossible to launch. Remember, US easily has the technology to put B-2 bombers in position to launch GPS-guided bombs to blow those launch-shields to kingdom to come. No-one has (atleast publicly) the capability to even find B-2's, not to mention intercept them. And those bombs are pretty well impossible to intercept as well.

So USA has a very good chance to disable China's nuclear capability.

Thats dangerous thinking there son... it really is. Like I said, China has second strike capability, so no there is not a very good chance you can disable China's nuclear capability. It was the same with Russia.

Before I get into the debate about Chinese Vs. America military wise lets take the convo into another direction real fast.

Which nations would you expect to side with China in the event of war with the United States?

Also for the sake of argument lets go with which nations would support the United States as well.

For the U.S. I would go ahead and throw in the obvious ones:

United Kingdom,Canada,Japan, South Korea, Taiwan is an obvious, etc.

And on the other hand, Russia would probably act with China, evening out the odds somewhat.

 

[Bal-Sagoth]

Thats dangerous thinking there son... it really is. Like I said, China has second strike capability, so no there is not a very good chance you can disable China's nuclear capability. It was the same with Russia.

I was wondering how long it would take Russia to come up in this convo.

I am not worried about anything happening with Russia. At best we will have some muscle flexing over the missile shield and what not but hopefully nothing more serious than that.

China actually scares me at times. Going back into American stubbornness however I will say I would rather fire up the draft and go to war with China than let them have their way and admit we are wrong.

Obviously I would just prefer nukes stay out of it. Even if we could knock many/most of them out a single one would be devastating.

And on the other hand, Russia would probably act with China, evening out the odds somewhat.

I am not so sure, what situation are you basing that on exactly?

Are we still going with the idea that this would be over Taiwan?

 

[Roflcore]

A-E: Nothing
Nuclear War is a bad thing kinda.

Oh and I doubt the chinese would dare an invasion. Right now the force (as you indicate) is not capable of taking taiwan military. They would just raise a blockade and force (most likely successfully) taiwan to surrender. The united states could not do much about it. Sending the fleet would be a mistake, given the chinese submarine fleet and the possiblity that they have aquiered russias newest submarine&torpedotechnology

oh and I wouldn't underestimate the pla: http://www.globalsecurity.org/military/world/china/song.htm
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Type_094

Taking out all nuclear capabilities in a single strike is wishful thinking at best.

 

[Critter]

China actually scares me at times. Going back into American stubbornness however I will say I would rather fire up the draft and go to war with China than let them have their way and admit we are wrong.

On the bright side, at least America would get all it's low paying manufacturing jobs back.

 

[Chancellor Kremlin]

I was wondering how long it would take Russia to come up in this convo.

Haha, not very long insofar it is still a regional power and has nuclear weapons.

I am not so sure, what situation are you basing that on exactly?

Are we still going with the idea that this would be over Taiwan?

It all depends. If it escalates into a NATO/Japan/Europe War against China (scenario E most probably), then yes I think Russia would do something about it. If a small scale war erupted then maybe not.

China actually scares me at times. Going back into American stubbornness however I will say I would rather fire up the draft and go to war with China than let them have their way and admit we are wrong.

On the bright side, at least America would get all it's low paying manufacturing jobs back.

Not to mention the perception of being 'wrong' and 'right' changes over time. I would much rather people 500 years into the future not give a damn about what we thought was wrong and right right now than not having people full stop.

Its like the jews at masada resisting the romans, the japanese at world war two prefering suicide and so on, I mean, you have to admirare their stubborness and their adherence to their principles. BUT, it only caused THEIR death. There is a major problem when one nation choses suicide over surrender and takes the whole world with it. While you may be willing to die for capitalism, freedom and democracy, a lot of other nations around the world would disagree. So please, think of others when commiting mass hari kari with nuclear weapons. If anything, think of the children

 

[ceacar99]

heh reminds me of the classic game hidden agenda.....

A military coup occurs in Taiwan. An oligarchy of Generals come to power, and declare immediate Independence from China. Chinese aircraft, submarines and cruise missiles attack military targets in Taiwain. A subsequent invasion force is being assembled. Taiwan requests help from the U.S.

use the opertunity to TRY to scale back trade with china in the hope of galvanizing my economy from the trade embargo that will come in the case of war. open discussions with taiwan and set the fleet/3rd marine division at okinawa at standby as well as bring all the army airborn divisions to standby status. do no action until i decide the nature of the reasoning behind taiwan's revolt.

really even though the action can temporarily damage trade it could be looked at stabalizing the region, so long as china keeps it tight and it looks like military coup in taiwan was just a bunch of selfish assholes why not let china have it?

A military coup occurs in Taiwan. An oligarchy of Generals come to power, and declare immediate Independence from China. Chinese aircraft, submarines and cruise missiles attack military targets in Taiwan. A subsequent invasion force is being assembled. Taiwan requests help from the U.S. As the seventh fleet sails from its home bases in Japan in aid of Taiwan, a nuclear warhead is detonated at sea many miles ahead of the fleet. The warning is clear: Do not intervene.

assemble as many nations as possible to condem china and prepare for war. once a nuke is thrown its pretty rough road, even if it was just a threat. even if i didnt push things things would likely push themselves into a highly escelated situation. really, at that point its either some sort of internation and military action or apeer powreless, which is a BAD thing....

so likelyhood is offer taiwan free supplies and funnel as much trained personel into the country under the radar as possible. try to get a coalition of volunteers to operate in taiwan as extra state volunteers. they support taiwan and can provide the groundwork in case the war has to go legit, such as china attacking one of the supply ships sent to ressuply taiwan.

China, wanting to finally reunite with its Taiwanese neighbour by force and wanting to end the dispute once and for all, launches missile strikes against military targets in Taiwain and has paratroopers and comandos land on the island through landing craft and air transport. These secure key beachheads and airfields for a full scale invasion to take place. Taiwain asks for help from the U.S.

let it happen.

China, wanting to finally reunite with its Taiwanese neighbour by force and wanting to end the dispute once and for all, launches missile strikes against military targets in Taiwain and has paratroopers and comandos land on the island through landing craft and air transport. These secure key beachheads and airfields for a full scale invasion to take place. Taiwan asks for help from the U.S. China warns the U.S that if it intervenes, it will liquidate U.S assets and treasuries in Chinese hands worth more than 1.3 trillion dollars, effectively heralding the collapse of the dollar and plunging the U.S into a never before seen economic crisis of castastrophic and possibly irrevesible proportions.

realise that china will crumble as well and play its bluff. press with all international support to stop the violence. taking the non violent aproach to ensure that war doesnt break out and china doesnt default on those loans(which will crash both economies unless in a total war scenario and even then the damage is severe)

China, in full knowledge the U.S will aid Taiwan should it be invaded, launches pre-emptive strikes against the U.S 7th fleet stationed at Japan, including Japanese Self Defence elements stationed nearby. The attack sinks 5 destroyers, 4 submarines, one aircraft carrier and numerous support vesels. Airbases are also targeted. The attack costs roughly the lives of 2073 american servicemen. Japanese losses ammount to 643. Immediately, China invades Taiwan.

obvious.....


lol this also reminds me of my favorite serries of games. hearts of iron .

 

[Bal-Sagoth]

If anything, think of the children

Sadly this is the first thing I thought of when I read that, in particular the first line.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4rk78eCIx4E

"How can I save my little boy from Oppenheimer's deadly toy"
There is no monopoly in common sense
On either side of the political fence
We share the same biology
Regardless of ideology
Believe me when I say to you
I hope the Russians love their children too