Chancellor Kremlin
Mildly Dipped
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Okay, being a student of International Relations, this is a topic that interests me, so please forgive me for asking this question.
What I will do is pose a series of theoretical scenarios involving a possible military conflict between the U.S, Japan and China, over Taiwan. Assuming YOU are the president of the United States, what would you do in the following scenarios, and WHY. But first, some notes to keep in mind:
Notes:
- The U.S is interpreted to be obliged to aid Taiwain in its defence should the need arise through the Taiwan Relations Act of 1979.
- The U.S has stationed the 7th Fleet in Yokosuka, Japan, ostensibly for the reasons of protecting Taiwan.
- China has stated any declaration of independence by Taiwan will results in military intervention.
- Military simulations in high tech computers have shown victories for the ROC (Republic of China - Taiwan) without U.S support.
- China currently possesses around 150 nuclear weapons. It has ballistic missiles capable of targeting the U.S mainland, and 3 nuclear ballistic submarines. The range of the weapons on board, if fired from the west coast of the US, could target all of America.
- China has released a white paper in 2005 asserting it will never be the first nation to use nuclear weapons, or to threathen their use. Only Pakistan and China have a 'no first use policy', unless struck first with a nuclear weapons. The U.S, Russia, India, France and Israel all agree preemptive nuclear strikes should be an option.
So, with these facts in mind, I give you the following scenarios:
A)
What do you do?
B)
What do you do?
C)
What do you do?
D)
What do you do?
And finally, E)
What do you do?
What I will do is pose a series of theoretical scenarios involving a possible military conflict between the U.S, Japan and China, over Taiwan. Assuming YOU are the president of the United States, what would you do in the following scenarios, and WHY. But first, some notes to keep in mind:
Notes:
- The U.S is interpreted to be obliged to aid Taiwain in its defence should the need arise through the Taiwan Relations Act of 1979.
- The U.S has stationed the 7th Fleet in Yokosuka, Japan, ostensibly for the reasons of protecting Taiwan.
- China has stated any declaration of independence by Taiwan will results in military intervention.
- Military simulations in high tech computers have shown victories for the ROC (Republic of China - Taiwan) without U.S support.
- China currently possesses around 150 nuclear weapons. It has ballistic missiles capable of targeting the U.S mainland, and 3 nuclear ballistic submarines. The range of the weapons on board, if fired from the west coast of the US, could target all of America.
- China has released a white paper in 2005 asserting it will never be the first nation to use nuclear weapons, or to threathen their use. Only Pakistan and China have a 'no first use policy', unless struck first with a nuclear weapons. The U.S, Russia, India, France and Israel all agree preemptive nuclear strikes should be an option.
So, with these facts in mind, I give you the following scenarios:
A)
A military coup occurs in Taiwan. An oligarchy of Generals come to power, and declare immediate Independence from China. Chinese aircraft, submarines and cruise missiles attack military targets in Taiwain. A subsequent invasion force is being assembled. Taiwan requests help from the U.S.
What do you do?
B)
A military coup occurs in Taiwan. An oligarchy of Generals come to power, and declare immediate Independence from China. Chinese aircraft, submarines and cruise missiles attack military targets in Taiwan. A subsequent invasion force is being assembled. Taiwan requests help from the U.S. As the seventh fleet sails from its home bases in Japan in aid of Taiwan, a nuclear warhead is detonated at sea many miles ahead of the fleet. The warning is clear: Do not intervene.
What do you do?
C)
China, wanting to finally reunite with its Taiwanese neighbour by force and wanting to end the dispute once and for all, launches missile strikes against military targets in Taiwain and has paratroopers and comandos land on the island through landing craft and air transport. These secure key beachheads and airfields for a full scale invasion to take place. Taiwain asks for help from the U.S.
What do you do?
D)
China, wanting to finally reunite with its Taiwanese neighbour by force and wanting to end the dispute once and for all, launches missile strikes against military targets in Taiwain and has paratroopers and comandos land on the island through landing craft and air transport. These secure key beachheads and airfields for a full scale invasion to take place. Taiwan asks for help from the U.S. China warns the U.S that if it intervenes, it will liquidate U.S assets and treasuries in Chinese hands worth more than 1.3 trillion dollars, effectively heralding the collapse of the dollar and plunging the U.S into a never before seen economic crisis of castastrophic and possibly irrevesible proportions.
What do you do?
And finally, E)
China, in full knowledge the U.S will aid Taiwan should it be invaded, launches pre-emptive strikes against the U.S 7th fleet stationed at Japan, including Japanese Self Defence elements stationed nearby. The attack sinks 5 destroyers, 4 submarines, one aircraft carrier and numerous support vesels. Airbases are also targeted. The attack costs roughly the lives of 2073 american servicemen. Japanese losses ammount to 643. Immediately, China invades Taiwan.
What do you do?