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Discussion in 'General Discussion Forum' started by Crni Vuk, Jul 15, 2016.
thank god it failed, would not want it to turned into another al sisi in egypt
Ah well, looks like Erdogan is back to Istanbul and in power while the military coup leaders are on the run. It is sad that some people died, or so they say. But it was good to see Erdogan hidding and feeling what it means when someone is out there to get you. However, I have the feeling we we will see now even more reprisals, laws and changes by Erdogan and his goons. Of course, all to secure the government and defend democracy.
Dunno, the military coup from 1960 was actually quite good as the prime minister was taking steps to becoming an autocrat. And th elast one from 1980 resulted in the constitution they have today.
With this failure it looks like Erdogan is taking the opportunity to "cleanse" the military and parties. There's already talk about bringing back the death penalty, too.
Yeah ... I wouldn't be surprised if Turkey becomes now a dictatorship under Erdogan.
I guess it's complicated. Maybe the coup leaders had a lot of sympathizers who agreed with them, but no one was sure if they would really take their arms if things get hot. Saying, yeah Erdogan has to go! Is one thing. But to actually do something, is a whole different matter. I mean how many of us would agree that he should leave, but who would really take action? And this makes it a real gamble. Wait to long, and someone might blow the whistle or you lose support, do it to early, and you don't get full support and people will simply sit out the situation. It seems the military as a whole was simply waiting. Like, let us see what Erdogan does, if he dies or flees to a different nation, what the public will do and so on.
The good thing is that now the conspiracy theories are bubbling up as the coup was executed very badly and gave the government the perfect excuse to cleanse the military and opposition. So this is going to be fun.
Gotta admit, we are like - super creative as a species. War, coups, bigoted world leaders winning sympathy through "strong-man"-ism, it's all so refreshing and new! We can't possibly get enough of it!
It already is!
A lot of coups of late have been really half-assed. Burundi, Burkina Faso, Turkey....
What's telling is that the opposition did not support the coup. This points to the mentality that, yes, Erodagan is bad, but he's going to leave office one day, so we don't need a coup. Which is reasonable. If Trump wins here, sure, it'll be horrible, but he'll be gone in four, eight years. No need for a coup, we just live with it.
Sure, he will leave office one day, the qustion is just how and when .
Bush made it. Reagan made it. The best we had was an attempt by a loco, and then a movie about an assassination by a ex-soldier of the Iraq war. Trump, if he wins, will probably make it.
And now the Turkish government is claiming that the US was behind the coup attempt, they've cut off power and shut down access to Incirlik Air Base, and shut down the airspace around the base, which is where the US was staging air strikes against ISIS. The base has about 5,000 USAF personnel stationed there, plus tactical nukes. If we lose that base ...
That could turn into a war, which the Turks will lose very rapidly.
There's unconfirmed reports that said base has 1) lost power and 2) is under attack.
Ah well, after Turkey invaded Cyprus, I've always wanted them out of NATO anyway.
Funny thing, since a few weeks german government officials were not allowed to visit the german soldiers stationed there (as a reaction to Germany calling the armenian genocide, well, a genocide).
Although all I heard was that Turkey demands the extradition of Gülen (who lives there), not that the USA started it.
Only a Lunatic would believe that the US was behind it. Of course, I can't rule it out ... but it simply seems extremly unlikely. What would the US government gain from it politically? They could care less if Turkey was a dictatorship or not, as long as they keep their bases there. And I don't remember that Erdogan had any reall qualms with the US.
I believe that the people behind the coup have been simply the last supporters of Kemalism. People that wanted to remove Erdogan and the current government in favour for Laicism. It wouldn't be the first time the military acted here, and they always saw them self a group that should keep up Attaturks legacy. I think the simple truth is, that the military leaders behind this coup, gambled, and lost. They probably didn't expect that the support in the population and the military was so low. And Erdogan is back in power ...
Not about to jump on the conspiracy bandwagon but this coup was so shockingly in favor of Erdogan it's as if he planned it himself.
Giving Erdogan full power and control over Turkey so they can have a dictator in the middle-east....you know, just in case. You never know when you might need one.
Tried? Did you not see the videos and pictures? Many of those taken prisonner at the bridge were lashed with leather belts, had their throats cut and were then dumped into the river.
So much for "tried".
Erdogan also used this uprising as an excuse to purge the judicial system and got rid of over 140 judges.
A coup in Turkey is not quite like a coup elsewhere. In Turkey, the military has been the secular protector of the people ever since Ataturk. They intervene when either religious extremism or despots threaten the state. As a result, they tend to be viewed favorably by the people.
This shapes the code of honor of the armed forces. They view themselves as guardians. So with that view, they are (largely) unable to open fire on counterprotesting Erdogan fans. The military attacked the establishment, but attacking the people would be unthinkable. And therein lies the rub, as Erdogan has massive support from (largely uneducated) muslims which are easy to mobilize.
So what else went wrong?
To have a successful coup, you need coordination between parties. But, at the same time, if you talk to too many people about it, the chances of it leaking out and the authorities finding out ahead of time grows exponentially.
Generally, a coup is a cooperation between young officers and old guard. In Turkey, Erdogan already purged the old guard by either putting them in prison for fake terrorism charges or simply sent them on early retirement. As a result, this specific coup was mostly young officers unable to gather full support from the army.
They also failed to bite the head off the snake. It's very important to get rid of the leading figure you're trying to depose.
They also failed to take control of all media. Which is a clusterfuck in itself since disinformation can kill a coup and mobilize forces against you.
But most of all, there are signs that forces alined with Erdogan knew ahead of time something was going down and might even have specifically created the climate for this to happen. This gives Erdogan an excuse to totally fuck over the military, the judicial system, the democratic system. Since he views himself as a self-styled caliph of Turkey, this is his chance to cement his position.
Contrary to Egypt, Turkey has a long history of military coups to protect the nation. Each time, the military handed the power back to the democratic forces after peace and stability had been restored.
Also, while Erdogan is publicly anti-ISIS and Turkey suffers from occasional ISIS attacks, it's clear to any observer that the Turkish army is used as a shield for ISIS and that Turkey is willingly providing resources to ISIS in return for oil and "friendship".
Erdogan is quickly turning into a Caliph. Something far more dangerous than el-Sisi.
There was a pro-Erdogan government member on TV who spoke about what was happening. Only problem was that he was talking about stuff that hadn't actually happened yet as if it came out of a playbook.
It's quite likely Erdogan's supporters knew something was up and had a plan in place.
Well, my guess is that they knew what could happen if they were to give their opponents a chance. They forced their enemies out of hiding by giving them that chance.
This time it was different though, due to many pro-Erdogan folks pouring to Istanbul and to Turkish army as well in recent couple of years. Almost one million poor muslims from distant regions of Turkey arrived to Istanbul recently, with a lots of them replacing hardcore kemalists in Turkish army. Looks like wannabe sultan was well prepared for this, no wonder the coup failed. Definitely bad news for Turkey, they're marching towards full blown totalitarian dictatorship strengthened by ideas of religious fundamentalism. Very dangerous.
Erdogan and his party are the MOST popular in the history of the Turkish Republic, and have consistently won election after election. Turkey is one of the few countries in the world that paid off its IMF loans so maybe that is the partial reason why people were so keen to take arm for erdogan.