Do you think a Nuclear war can actually happen?

That's the question though. Are we talking about a very small local region like India vs Pakistan or Israel using it once or North Korea striking Soul with a nuclear warhead? Or do we talk about a full scale global war like as it could have been the case between the Soviet Union and the USA. While we do have a lot less nuclear weapons today compared to the height of the cold war, I think at some point more than 60 000 nuclear weapons! Using the 8 000 weapons we still have today would be most probably a very devastating event on humanity.

It is very difficult to say what might happen though. For example if all the nuclear weapons would be used more or less at the same time it would cause a rise in temperature, just a small one but enough to have an effect on the planet, a lot of carbon dioxide, dust and other stuff would be released in to the atmosphere of the planet from fires. Those would be short time effects but still quite harmful. Particularly when you consider that dust storms from Mongolia can reach the Californian coast or something like that. No clue, it is something that I have read. Anyway, pollution in China has been already detected in the US. So there is a lot of connection here. You most probably could forget any industry after a nuclear war, most important the food industry. Crops and production would most probably stop for years.

And we have not even talked about the radiation yet or the effect of the electromagnetic fields/waves which would hit a lot of machines. There is the short term and long term radiation. Radioactive Nuclei like Cesium have only a very short half life, compared to plutonium that can last for millions of years, but they can be in plants, animals and the ground for decades making it very difficult if not outright impossible to grow and find save food. As far as the wind and atmosphere goes it is pretty much unpredictable at this point anyway where and how much radiation would be, what areas it affects and what not. Chernobyl has shown that even areas thousands of miles away can be affected, like Germany, France and Britain. And the long term effects of the radiation would not be very pretty either. Particularly if you don't have the technology to fight it. People that have grown up in Hiroshima and Nagasaki STILL suffer from it.

Of course there are ways eventually to deal with all of those things, I am sure, but it would be devastating for decades with extremely high casualties, most probably in the billions. There is a good chance that a nuclear war would be eventually the end of humanity because you have a lot of issues coming at us all at once, but it is just speculation.

Anyway, one thing is absolutely clear. Civilization as we know it would end immediately with a nuclear war. Of course I don't know it, that is my opinion but I personaly believe a nuclear war could have brought humanity close to extinction.

Society survives but it might be a tyrannical dictatorship which the U.S could turn into after a global nuclear war like that. They'd bring down the hammer to instill justice and order in places that quickly fall out of order. Maybe as a way to keep raiding and looting out of the picture,

The issue I see here is that you would have a very hard time to keep up a running government after a full global nuclear war. Why? Well, for one reason. No infrastructure. A nuclear war, most of the time, was always seen as the ultimo ratio, the last option. For a reason. Because it means the absolute point of no return. Once you get in such a situation where the government has to run the country from a bunker there is no reason for the common man to follow orders or feeling bound by his oath, and that is a rather natural occurrence. Order in a nation like the US or Europe is held up mainly by the bureaucracy and authority, like the police, military etc. Once they disappear, everyone is on his own. Police officers, military personal, officials, doctors, nurses and in general all the people that keep this society running would be on their way home trying to find and eventually protect their families and property instead of keeping up the order. Government institutions, hospitals and military bases would be completely deserted at some point and most of the communication would probably stop working. Again, we are talking here about a global nuclear war. Society as we know it would brake down. And I don't think many people would feel obliged to follow some group of people hiding inside a bunker that has eventually enough resources to run for 6 or 9 months. After that they pretty much have to leave the place as well.

I still don't get it why many senators, ministers, presidents back then even thought they could run the country from a remote location and distant bunker, just because they survived. In fact they could as well decide to never build any bunker at all and I don't think it would make any difference in the long run. Do they not believe that normal human beings would simply decide to go home? At this point, you have been one of the UNFORTUNATE souls who survived, you could as well get back to your family and eventually die there. People would most probably leave their positions.
 
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After everything that's happened and the fact we're all still here I can say chances are much higher there will never be an "end-game" scenario. It's something to be glad about.

Sincerely,
The Vault Dweller
 
Heh, our planet doesn't share your feelings, his hopes are that this will be over quick :p
 
Heh yeah. I could see that. But I guess after a GNW you might as well start a new nation instead of trying to keep the U.S or the Federation of Russia alive huh? I mean both economies will be dead and so will their infrastructure so they might as well start a new nation.
 
Between countries like India and Pakistan, or North Korea and South Korea, I could see it happening more so than anyone else.

Between the old Cold-War powers like the U.S.A and Russia? I don't think it's in the foreseeable future.

But you never know.....

 
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Well if it happens it would be a good thing to grab some popcorn, beer or what ever you prefer and to enjoy the show. I think you will never experience such a firework again in your whole life. Yes Timmy! You can go and hidde under your bench, blanket or what ever, but you know what? You're missing the experience of a lifetime!



Yes ... the newspaper will save you from the burn. Remember to buy the one with the most lead inside.
 
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I don't remember the name, but I remember reading about a Doomsday Cult in the mid 00's (like 05 or 07) who hoped for a global nuclear war.

They believed that it wasn't humanity that was corrupt, like most Doomsday Cults believe, but that it was the civilization we've established today that was killing us. They believed that our corrupt and screwed up society and civilization has brought us so far over the edge, that we can never hope to recover. Unless, there were a global nuclear war. If there were a global nuclear war, we could wipe away the old and begin building and shaping the new. We could learn from our mistakes of our past and shape a better future. They believed that, of course, many, many people would die, but we've already brought ourselves so far into our corrupt ways that we'd never be willing to change, and even if we we're, we wouldn't be able to because we rely to much on this civilization and if it were to break down, well then it would truly be the end. So the lives that would be taken in the global nuclear war would be the price we would have to pay for a new start, and/or a second chance. And when raised the question of "what if we screw up on our second chance?" they believed that "then that would be our last" or "then we never deserved the first". They was called the "Second Chance Organization" or something like that, and their slogan was like "Rebuilding Our Children's Future Atop The Ashes Of Their Grandparent's Past", something akin to that.
 
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The idea that civlisation is to blame is not really new though, but what is really new in this age anyway.

(...)Rousseau had read about an essay competition sponsored by the Académie de Dijon to be published in the Mercure de France on the theme of whether the development of the arts and sciences had been morally beneficial. He wrote that while walking to Vincennes (about three miles from Paris), he had a revelation that the arts and sciences were responsible for the moral degeneration of mankind, who were basically good by nature. Rousseau's 1750 Discourse on the Arts and Sciences was awarded the first prize and gained him significant fame.

There are basically two ideas, one where the human nature is simply evil and things like moral, ethics etc. have to be learned or taught ~ Homo homini lupus est meaning "man is a wolf to [his fellow] man".

And the idea that humans are good by nature where we actually become evil over time because of civliziation which spawns greed, crime etc.



A purely philosophical question.
 
Well if it happens it would be a good thing to grab some popcorn, beer or what ever you prefer and to enjoy the show. I think you will never experience such a firework again in your whole life. Yes Timmy! You can go and hidde under your bench, blanket or what ever, but you know what? You're missing the experience of a lifetime!



Yes ... the newspaper will save you from the burn. Remember to buy the one with the most lead inside.


To be fair, we knew virtually next to nothing about what a nuclear holocaust or post-nuclear world would be like back then (late 40's to early 80's). Look at all of the "ideas" and "hypothesis" that were generated by renowned scientists and physics scholars that are being refuted and throw out like last weeks trash today. Like the idea of "Nuclear Winter", for example. Once commonly excepted throughout the Western World, now almost completely disregarded.

And I also believe these videos were made for people who wouldn't be in the direct vicinity of the bomb blast. Even the biggest idiot on the planet knew that if you were within a few miles of where a bomb was going to be dropped, nothing was going to save you. But, perhaps people living in the suburbs (since it was commonly excepted that the most chosen targets would be in the inner city and/or industrial district, since that's where it would do the most damage, or perhaps even in the surrounding towns and communities (for example here in Albuquerque, we have several smaller "towns" that, if you didn't live here would consider neighborhoods instead of extra towns since there is no untamed land in between them, but they are however individual towns, and are pretty far from the inner city/downtown. Like Bernallio, Rio Rancho, and Edgewood for example). So, suburbs, surrounding towns, or even further out such as small communities who live miles outside the city limits, but would still be able to see the flash.

Also back in the 50's, and even 60's, "mega-bombs" were still under development. Most likely, the largest bombs that would have been loaded unto planes and attached to the tip of a missile would probably be a megaton or two big, the majority being a few kilotons large (around the Fatman size). Even in the sixties, I doubt the Soviets would have been loading the Tsar Bomba unto plane after plane. It might have been used once or twice, for cities like New York or L.A., or Moscow though (for the US's own version).
 
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Then there's also the probability of an accidental nuclear war. I don't know if you played the game Wasteland for Commandore 64 but the premise of that game was asteroid fragments being mistaken for oncoming nuclear weapons and launches against the U.S happened and they retaliated and the world turned into a big pile of fuck. And there was the Norwegian rocket incident on January 25th, 1995. A Norwegian rocket 900 miles above Earth nearly got mistaken for a nuclear weapon launch against Russia, Russian nuclear forces were point on high alert and Boris Yelstin was about to turn his key on the briefcase. Till they found out it was a weather rocket. Close call for sure.
 
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But com on! A blanket? A sheet of paper? Hidding under your table? What's that going to do for you? The only REALISTIC thing you can do, is to find the next shelter and hope that the bomb is not going of directly above you - considering the nature of nuclear weapons, if youre within a certain distance absolutely nothing is going to save you as everything will emidiately vaporize because of the imense heat, we are talking about something like 100 milion degrees Fahrenheit here, nuclear fision bombs are used to spark a fusion after all!

Seriously, the best thing to do when a nuclear war happens is to step outside and enjoy the show. It will be quick. It will be clean. And you don't have to worry about what happens after it.

Survival? Possible. I guess? I mean who knows it really. But will it be pretty? Definitely not. Look at the people that "suvived" Chernobyle. We are talking about several generations here dealing with the effects of the radiation and the totall destruction of the world as we know it, constant starving, health issues, maybe no adequate medical treatment and so on. Hiroshima/Nagasaki on a global scale. At least after WW2 people didn't had to clean all their cities from nuclear waste and they had not to worry about cancer when they decided to rebuild everything. I mean we are talking about ten thousands of nuclear weapons exploding pretty much at the same time, in particular if we think about the peak of the cold war with its, no clue 60 000 nuclear weapons.

Yeah, granted it is very difficult to predict the effects, but pretty much ANY scientist agrees that it would be the worst catastrophe humanity could experience, the only thing that could be possibly worse would be a giant asteroid. One of the worst effects of a nuclear war next to the polution could be the temperature, just a few degrees might be enough to start a chain reaction causing the pole regions to melt which could bring the gulf stream to a halt causing a lot of issues because of very heavy weather changes. I mean if you can't really grow a lot of food and find good clean water, than yeah ... that pretty much is the end.

Like said, there are a lot of things to consider here. Humanity can probably deal with a lot of things. But the question is at which point will it be to much? Maybe we can survive a nuclear war, maybe we can't. Best not to test it I would say ;)
 
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Maybe I just do these as a way to deny the worst and not have to believe that we're all crazy enough to kill ourselves with nuclear weapons. Either that or I play too much Fallout and it's starting to mess with my head a bit. But then again it opened up the option and said it's there. I'm always trying to look to the bright side and know the opposite of fear, hope. And hope for the hope that there won't ever be one. World War III? Inevitable. A nuclear war? Stoppable, the best way to fight it is to not fight it at all. I see myself as Anti-cynical and don't want to have to see or know a future destroyed by a GNW. In some cases I don't know what to think.
 
But then again if a GNW happens I don't think it'd be like Fallout. Well at least there won't be super mutants or Ghouls. Mutated animals? Yes
 
That is one of the great questions of international relations theory. Most realists seem to dismiss the possibility of nuclear war as they essentially argue that nuclear weapons enhance deterrence. Deterrence succeeds when the party that would take action decides not to because he engages in a simple calculation of (a) the probability that the deterring party will take decisive actions X (b) the probable damage that will result of such action is > than the benefits of the intended action. In short, its a rational calculation. But this also hinges on a few assumptions. First, that actors are rational and not risk tolerant. This is dicey. Japan went to war with the US in World War 2 as a gamble, knowing it could win a short limited war but lose a total war- and it banked the US would back down. So actors need not be rational and even if rational calculation is had, it is still bounded by constraints and conditions. A state facing deep declines if it loses and a political elite that might swept from power might be willing to take otherwise risky moves based on those constraints. Consider, for instance, North Korea in crisis. Secondly, nuclear deterrence depends on a secured second strike. Through most of the Cold War and even today, the great powers have an assured second strike. Even Israel has a secured second strike. But Pakistan and India do not.

The outcomes of this can be quite striking. Consider- http://www.nrdc.org/nuclear/southasia.asp or http://climate.envsci.rutgers.edu/pdf/RobockToonSciAmJan2010.pdf
 
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