I think Ulysses only knew that if Mr House was so interesed in such a complicated operation (fake couriers and all that) then it would be important. I mean he is a Frumentarius, the Legion has spies everywhere they probably knew that Mr House was doing some weird stuff, he even says most Courriers are actually disguised Frumentarii. Altho it seems like quite the flimsy way of killing someone, but he probably wasn't counting so much on you dying.