NFL 2009

[UniversalWolf]

With the draft coming up this weekend, why don't we make some predictions? Who do you want your team to draft, and who do you expect them to draft?

For the Packers, the number one need is offensive tackle. I would love for them to get a good one, but I suspect there will be a run on OTs, and the top four might all be gone by pick number nine. They've been pretty consistent about following a Best Player Available strategy, so that makes me think they won't draft the third or fourth best OT just because they need one. B.J. Raji or Brian Orakpo seem likely candidates if the best OTs are gone, but I also think it's very possible that the Packers will trade down, especially if another team wants to trade up to get Stafford or Sanchez. That would fit Ted Thompson's drafting character.

I'm hoping the Lions take Stafford and not Smith, because that makes it more likely that a good OT will fall to Green Bay.

 

[Maphusio]

The Lions CAN'T fail with their new and soon to be acquisitions *knocks on wood*

 

[Brother None]

Oh FFS, ok then, we'll finally start a new NFL thread. I was actually trying to hold it off until after the draft since I HATE the pointless period of pre-draft speculation. At least post-draft is always full of hope as even the worst things dream of a Miami-esque turnaround.

And man, it's not the strongest draft class. It's hard to get excited about any players. Sanchez is overhyped. People like to deny it but Crabtree is in fact an unknown whose potential is hard to judge because his numbers are so skewed by his offense and playing softball Ds. I think he has the potential to be a special player, but I have my doubts about him being NFL ready.

I don't follow college football much at all, but the only ones I like in early first-rounders are Stafford, Curry and the OTs, Monroe and Smith. Curry is hardly an exciting early-round pick, low-risk as he is I'd expect him to develop as AJ Hawk, who is a solid player but not much of a difference-maker. He's the lowest-risk, but if Detroit is worried about the risk factor I'd think Jason Smith is the likeliest pick. You really don't want to draft a tackle machine that high, as a rule they just don't make enough of a difference on the field.
But Stafford seems to be the main man and the likeliest 1st overall. I like the kid, which is why I'd hate to see him end up in Detroit. I'd much more like him to be placed behind Hasselbeck and hold a clipboard for a year, which honestly I think is the best development strategy for QBs anyway (Carson Palmer, A-Rod, Hasselbeck himself), but I guess Sanchez it is.

I hate, hate that the chance of the Seahawks trading down is near 0%. We really don't need to tie up this much money in a weak rookie-class that offers almost nobody who looks like a great fit to immediately help the team and thus warrant his price-tag. I think our offensive line has different needs than this draft provides in its zone-blocking scheme, and I don't love any of the DEs, and there aren't any really attractive CBs...A QB seems the most logical pick, but do you really want to tie up that much guaranteed cash in a clipboard holder?

But no chance of trading out of the top 4/5. Nobody wants those picks. It's punishment to have a top 5 picks, as if the league wants to kick you in the nuts again for your horrible season. Talk about broken systems...I'm almost hoping Seahawks (or any of the top 4) just show some major gazongas and let the clock run out on their pick. It'd be another clear message that the system needs to change, and honestly this draft class is so unexciting I can hardly bother to care about missing some of the top picks. I would be ecstatic if the Hawks manage to get out of the top 5, by any means.

As a Hawks fan, I'm always more excited about the second-day picks than the first-day ones, since Ruskell does better in the former than in the latter. If James Laurinaitis is still available at pick 37 that will be penis, but there are some mid-round picks I can get behind as well, such as WR Mike Thomas (and Juaquin Iglesias, obviously), C Antoine Caldwel or DE Alex Magee.

I think the concensus first four picks right now are Stafford-Smith-Curry-Sanchez. I really hope it doesn't play out like that, tho'. I'll still be wishing the Hawks get out of the top 5 somehow, at first glance I like next year's QB class much better than this years, but if Sanchez it is, Sanchez it is.

 

[TwinkieGorilla]

With the draft coming up this weekend, why don't we make some predictions? Who do you want your team to draft, and who do you expect them to draft?

For the Packers, the number one need is offensive tackle. I would love for them to get a good one, but I suspect there will be a run on OTs, and the top four might all be gone by pick number nine. They've been pretty consistent about following a Best Player Available strategy, so that makes me think they won't draft the third or fourth best OT just because they need one. B.J. Raji or Brian Orakpo seem likely candidates if the best OTs are gone, but I also think it's very possible that the Packers will trade down, especially if another team wants to trade up to get Stafford or Sanchez. That would fit Ted Thompson's drafting character.

I'm hoping the Lions take Stafford and not Smith, because that makes it more likely that a good OT will fall to Green Bay.

ah, yer. i meant to make a post askin' you who you were hoping for. i have a feeling it's NOT going to be Raji. but fuck, ANY OT, DT or DL will be a plus for us.

and yeah, can we please fucking dump Tony "hey look, a game breaking penalty!" Moll? please?

 

[Brother None]

Honestly, I think Raji is overrated. Not mobile enough, really doesn't fit every system well. I think he's got bust written on him, really, but we'll see.

 

[TwinkieGorilla]

Honestly, I think Raji is overrated. Not mobile enough, really doesn't fit every system well. I think he's got bust written on him, really, but we'll see.

been thinkin' the same thing, been hoping Thompson has as well. IMO, Thompson DOES know wtf he's doing.

 

[Brother None]

He's not necessarily bad, but he'd be terrible as a nose tackle in a 3-4 system, which I guess would be what GB would draft him for.

 

[[PCE]el_Prez]

I hope the 9ers don't draft a QB. Any other position will be fine.

As for the Cards - hopefully they can pick up either Beanie Wells or Knowshawn. I kind of want them to trade Boldin for some serious draft picks.

Lookin forward to watchin the draft though.


You guys hear about the Chiefs pissing away Tony Gonzales for a 2nd round pick in 2010?

 

[Brother None]

el_Prez]You guys hear about the Chiefs pissing away Tony Gonzales for a 2nd round pick in 2010?

Dude's 33, man, they should be happy they got anything for him.

 

[Cimmerian Nights]

Falcons made out like bandits on that one. Gonzo will be instrumental in the further development of young Matty. Falcons have some fucking weapons now bra'.


I can't sweat draft day - not with Belichek at the helm. I understand why people think he's such a dick. But they need to realize that he only applies his energy to things that will improve the Patriots'chances to win more football games. That's his one and only agenda. So he'd rather focus on football than shmooze with some douchebag national reporter? How does that help his team win again? The guy is like a fucking Terminator (but not infallible, I hate that genius talk.)


And the whole copy-cat thing in the NFL is getting old. You used to have some diversity and innovation in the NFL offenses - West Coast, Run and Shoot, Pro-Set, No-huddle etc. Then when the Cowboys dynasty hit it's peak all, their assistants got promoted all over the league. Same with the 49ers/Packer's west coast offense. Nowadays if you mop the urinals at Foxboro the Jets'll be looking to steal you away and make you a coach.


You know the Lions are abyssmal. But I've got to think the Raiders are by far the one team you would not want to be drafted by. It's like Cuba where they are just waiting for Castro to die to start the party. Al Davis is like the drunk guy at the bar, somebody has to take his keys, for the good of the league and the Raiders.

 

[UniversalWolf]

I'm hearing rumors of a Patriots attempt to trade up into the top ten, possibly working on a deal with the Packers. Here's the more interesting and more far-fetched part: the Pats could be trying to get the top ten pick so they can deal it to Carolina for Julius Peppers.

I know, I know - it's a longshot, but Ted will definitely listen to offers that will let him move down. For better or for worse, he likes to move down.

I would love to see Stafford, Sanchez, Crabtree, and Maclin all get drafted in the top eight, because that would guarantee the Packers could grab an offensive tackle.

 

[Cimmerian Nights]

That actually makes good sense. The Pats have been looking at Peppers for a long time, and Belichek isn't fond of high 1st rounders, especially in this draft I'm sure. Oddly he was talking about the possibility of trading up just recently.

The Pats actually have like 6 picks in the top 100. For a draft whose greatest values aren't in the top 10, but the mid-tier, or 2nd rounders, that could work out pretty equitably. BB in true Parcells disciple fashion has shown that if he's going to spend money, it will be on veterans and not rookies. He broke this golden rule of Parcells' on Lawrence Maroney and has been using dime-a-dozen free-agents like Sammy Morris, LaMont Jordan and now Fred Taylor to better effect.

The situation is fucked how you have to pay these high picks all this guaranteed money when a lot of them aren't ready for prime time yet or don't even pan out at all. How many guaranteed millions are guys like Jamarcus Russel and Matt Leinart getting for riding pine? Meanwhile Matt Cassell won 11 games for a salary of $400K last year.
Nothing is certain in the draft, but with the guaranteed money you have to pay these golden-boys, they're more risk than they could potentially be worth. If Sanchez or Stafford turn out to be busts, they're going to set their programs back like 4years and tie up all that cap space.

edit:

I would love to see Stafford, Sanchez, Crabtree, and Macklin all get drafted in the top eight, because that would guarantee the Packers could grab an offensive tackle.

The pundits keep saying this is a robust draft for tackles and WRs.
My hope is that Percy Harvin shows up at the draft with a bong, maybe he can drop low enough for the Pats to snag him. Realistically I'm hoping for one of the USC linebackers and some risky second rounder like Pat White.

 

[Brother None]

The pundits are wrong. It is a robust draft fot tackles, but WRs are wavering from the unpolished, to the unproven to the over-hyped. We're all dreaming of the next Larry Fitzgerald, but Michael Crabtree isn't it, and I have too many question marks with many of the top (especially Darrius Heyward-Bey, but Maclin, like Crabtree, is all about the raw talent, and is totally not NFL-ready, which means it's a 50/50 gamble whether or not he'll ever be) up until Juaquin Iglesias.

Percy Harvin is, what, 4th on most pundits lists? I could imagine him being there by the end of the 1st round.

Pat White is nothing but hype too. He'd fit in well with the Pats, tho' 2nd round really is too high for a trick play specialist...

 

[UniversalWolf]

What's really disappointing about this draft class is the lack of good DB prospects. The Packers could really use a talented young corner, but there just aren't any. Jenkins is a safety and Vontae Davis is...Vernon Davis's brother. No thanks.

I too think it's a pretty good class for OTs though, which is why I expect an early run on them. The best prospects in the draft are OTs, and maybe LBs.

 

[Brother None]

I'm not sure I agree about Jenkins. He's had a great college career, and half a year ago you'd be hard-pressed to find a mock draft that didn't list him in the top 10. He dropped for the combine and lack of hype - the dumbest reasons to drop (or lift) in draft rankings.

Sure, he's big-bodied and might end up being more of a safety, depending on how his lack of straight-line speed plays out, but he's not as bad a prospect as current mocks put them. He'll likely go mid-round, but he's still the top-10 talent he was a year ago.

But yeah, we've seen better CBs in other draft classes.

 

[[PCE]el_Prez]

el_Prez]You guys hear about the Chiefs pissing away Tony Gonzales for a 2nd round pick in 2010?

Dude's 33, man, they should be happy they got anything for him.

He had 1000+ recieving yards (4th best of his career) last year and 10 TDs (ties his 2nd best of his career.)


If anything he was worth a 2nd, 3rd, and 4th THIS YEAR!. I don't know how they got around giving up a 1st for him. Im mean at least a 1st in 2010

 

[Cimmerian Nights]

The pundits are wrong. It is a robust draft fot tackles, but WRs are wavering from the unpolished, to the unproven to the over-hyped.

Well sure, they're college kids. Some of them underclassmen too.

We're all dreaming of the next Larry Fitzgerald, but Michael Crabtree isn't it,

Whenever I've seen Crabtree play, it was like watching a man playing with boys. He's not unlike Fitz in that regard. He'll hit the ground running in the NFL.

Percy Harvin is, what, 4th on most pundits lists? I could imagine him being there by the end of the 1st round.

He's since tested positive for cannabis.

Pat White is nothing but hype too. He'd fit in well with the Pats, tho' 2nd round really is too high for a trick play specialist.

He's hype as a QB. But he won't be a QB on any NFL team (outside of the wildcat).

He had 1000+ recieving yards (4th best of his career) last year and 10 TDs (ties his 2nd best of his career.)


If anything he was worth a 2nd, 3rd, and 4th THIS YEAR!. I don't know how they got around giving up a 1st for him. Im mean at least a 1st in 2010

Right, Gonzalez is a hands guy, that kind of skill doesn't diminish with age. He never was a burner, or a monster blocker anyway. He's always been a hands guy - proabably why he's still going.

 

[TwinkieGorilla]

Al Davis is like the drunk guy at the bar, somebody has to take his keys, for the good of the league and the Raiders.

i lol'ed. and then i did an Al Davis impersonation for my buddy, and we both lol'ed. fuckin' hell man. it's like the Bad News Bears with a drunken ex-mafioso boss who just doesn't care any more where his money falls. i think i might love the Raiders as a secret underdog pick this coming year just for the lulz of it. we all need a secret lulz team.


anyway, this season's draft is a bit peculiar up top and i'm not sure i'm really sold on this Raji prospect, drug talk unfounded or not. i'd rather (and i agree with Thompson's trading down theory) see us bulk up on lower draft picks and build up our OT's and DT's than anything right now.

 

[Brother None]

Well sure, they're college kids. Some of them underclassmen too.

Not my point. It's like people are magically forgetting the bust-rate for WRs is pretty high, and even more magically forgetting that you can't really hype up WRs that come from non-pro style offenses all that much.

It's not a terrible draft class for WRs, and it *is* deep (hell I love the mid-round talent in many positions in this draft), but it's being hyped way too much.

Whenever I've seen Crabtree play, it was like watching a man playing with boys. He's not unlike Fitz in that regard. He'll hit the ground running in the NFL.

I don't think so. I think he'll be good, but that's based on pure talent. He did not play in a system that compares well to the NFL, and he's got the skewed numbers to show for it. His speed is the fav stickler, but I disagree, I think his speed might be an issue only because we don't know how it'll work out if seriously tested.

He doesn't remind me of Fitz at all. He reminds me of Peter Warrick.

He's since tested positive for cannabis.

No, I'm talking about right now, after he's been tested. Yahoo!'s admittedly terrible draft board has him as the 4th-ranked WR.

"Tested positive" for cannabis indeed. Normally I couldn't give a damn less about someone from college admitting to smoking cannabis, it's college, but boy's gotta be a dumbass.

He's hype as a QB. But he won't be a QB on any NFL team (outside of the wildcat).

Exactly. He's not a QB on NFL level, but he's an interesting trick player prospect, Antwaan Randle El style, though it remains to be seen if he can also be utilized that heavily as a receiver and special teams player.

I wonder if we should take the "he has a better arm than initially thought" talk seriously, tho'

He had 1000+ recieving yards (4th best of his career) last year and 10 TDs (ties his 2nd best of his career.)

If anything he was worth a 2nd, 3rd, and 4th THIS YEAR!. I don't know how they got around giving up a 1st for him. Im mean at least a 1st in 2010

I agree, he's a great player with enough left in the tank to significantly help any team, and he's an awesome fit with the Falcons.

But he's still 33. I know it defies logic, but you're not just going to get that much value for a 33-year old, no matter how good.

Besides, pre-draft trades are always bad value compared to draft-day trades, the few peaks and curves aside.

 

[Cimmerian Nights]

I grow weary of all the prognosticating. Anyone who thinks they know what's going to happen after pick 5 is talking out of their ass.
And sure they're all hype - they haven't stepped foot on an NFL field yet. Barry Sanders, Peyton Manning and Deion Sanders were all hype until they donned jerseys too. People talked shit about Dan Marino's coke habit in college - how'd he work out?

Anyway hype is what happens now, hype is what ESPN and the agents sell. The actual product and the manifestation (either being fulfilled or not) of all that potential is what actually interests me. You know, the actual football playing part. Yes, there is actually a point in the year where these guys actually play football! The rest of this is just the Annual Mel Kiper Jr. circle jerk.



My last gripe on the draft - Pats win 11 games, don't make the playoffs - hey, shit happens. Chargers win a garbage division with a .500 record and make the playoffs. Fine.
How the fuck do the Chargers then pick #16 and the Pats #23. They're having their cake and eating it too.
The Steelers pick last due to winning the SB, the Cards 2nd to last and so on. I got no problem with one or the other, but together is inequitable.