NFL 2009

Yes, yes, we all complain about the pre-draft hype, but we all read it anyway. Don't care? Then don't read. I often don't, and at the worst join the hype about a month before the actual draft.

Football off-season isn't the best time to follow the sport, but it is what it is.
 
Brother None said:
PCE said:
He had 1000+ recieving yards (4th best of his career) last year and 10 TDs (ties his 2nd best of his career.)

If anything he was worth a 2nd, 3rd, and 4th THIS YEAR!. I don't know how they got around giving up a 1st for him. Im mean at least a 1st in 2010

I agree, he's a great player with enough left in the tank to significantly help any team, and he's an awesome fit with the Falcons.

But he's still 33. I know it defies logic, but you're not just going to get that much value for a 33-year old, no matter how good.

Besides, pre-draft trades are always bad value compared to draft-day trades, the few peaks and curves aside.


I heard a rumor that the Ravens might trade the Cards a 2nd round pick and Todd Heap for Boldin. I'd like to see another pick or so in that deal for AZ but I'd be down for that.
 
Cimmerian Nights said:
I'd give round one to Green Bay. Nice picks that can make an immediate impact.
I have to admit I'm very happy so far. Raji was good; Raji and Matthews is superb. Ted continues to be unpredictable.

Al Davis makes me laugh. If Crabtree lives up to the hype all the Raider fans are going to see it happen right across the Bay.
 
I was planning to stay up for the Seahawks 2nd-rounder, but...

Seahawks: Aaron Curry is probably the best player in the draft, but he's still just a tackling machine, and you would hope for more direct impact from a player taken that early. It's not a bad pick because there's little to no downside, but it'll take a while to fall in love with it. Also, are we trading Hill now? How much money do you want tied up in your LB-corps?

Aaaaaaand this has to be the best-value trade ever. Seriously. Broncos get the 37 in a bad draft year for a 1st-rounder next year. Man, if the Broncos flop and it turns out to be a high pick, that'll go down as the greatest draft-day pick switch in history. Epic.

Mark Sanchez and Josh Freeman: two QBs who go too early because of the Ryan/Flacco hype. Trading up to get Sanchez is stupid, and Freeman is not a mid-round talent. I believe in Stafford, he's the kind of NFL-ready QB you could try to build a team on (though I doubt he'll see first-year success, people forget Ryan/Flacco only did because they were on run-first offenses), but the rest of 'em? Eh.

Darrius Heyward-Bey: Davis reveals once more why his franchise is a total joke, by taking a mediocre player way too early simply because of his size and speed. Seriously, guys, we're going to have to wait for Davis to die before we can take Oakland seriously again.

New England Patriots: I know we all hate the Pats and Bellicheat in particular, but once again they show why they became the best franchise this decade. They identify that this is a loaded draft in mid-rounds but nothing particularly special high-up, and absolutely rock trading all over the place. There is so much value in the second day here, and the Pats are going to stockpile on it.
They completely left the first round, and in so doing, I think they had the best 1st round of any team. And boom, with the 2nd pick of the 2nd round they pick up Patrick Chung, who is talented enough to be a late-1st ruond talent. Seriously, dudes, if you dislike the Pats, it's time to tear your hair out, because they're owning this draft so far.

Cleveland Browns did much the same, and made a smart, unsexy pick in Alex Mack. It looks high because centers always look high, they're just not sexy, but that's a quality football player. Cleveland is a franchise of futility, but if they pick the right guys with these picks, and have another good draft next year, expect them to climb up. It won't happen fast, but still.

Green Bay Packers: obviously identified the D as the big problem last year, and tried hard to upgrade it. I think Raji is going to fail unless the Pack utilizes him exactly the right way (which isn't an every-down anchor nose tackle), but Matthews isn't bad value at pick 26, though not without risk.
If Monroe, Smith or even the other Smith were still around at pick 9 I would've laughed at the Pack, but while I do think he'll fail, I understand Raji at 9.

Andre Smith: errr, so Cincinnati really loves their character issue guys, huh? Anyway, can't question his talent, 3 great OTs in talent in this draft, and they all went before pick 9.

Washington: picks up Haynesworth in the offseason, and then drafts Orakpo. In a division as heavy on QB talent as the NFC East, I absolutely love those moves. Though I do hate the 'Skins.

Michael Oher: talking about risk, everyone was blubbering about the great value of Oher at 23. Bullshit. Oher belonged at 23, as a dude with great upside but bustability written all over him. He was not a top-20 prospect, hype notwithstanding, Baltimore pulled the trigger about the right time.

WRs: like I said, I think it's an overhyped class, but at 10 Crabtree is great value, though I'm not sure what SF is planning to do with him without a QB. Same for Harvin to the Vikes.
I'm a bit confused about Maclin to the Eagles. My first reaction was "McNabb gets more toys, great", because I feel McNabb is a great QB who had a rough time in Philly partially due to their refusal to give him anything except mediocre receivers (and TO). But when I settled down to think about it: isn't Maclin basically the exact same type of player as Fraction Jackson? Confusing. They'll have a great return game, tho'.
I like Nicks to the Giants...sigh...and then Britt to the Titans. I will be surprised if half these receivers make it on the next level. No way this year should've seen so many 1st-round WR picks. I realise WRs are sexy to pick, but FFS, what are we, Detroit nation? (speaking of which, is it more or did Philly move up two in assuming Detroit would pick Maclin if they didn't. Lions, Lions never change)

Unsexy picks: I already mentioned Mack, perhaps unsurprisingly I also like Eric Wood, though not as much, I love James Laurinaitis to the Rams at 35 and Maualuga to the Bengals at 38, that's fantastic value. But what I really love is Larry English. Because sometimes I feel people look too much at talents and not at systems. In pure ability, English is a reach at 16. But he fits so perfectly in what San Diego wants to do, that he'll no doubt end up being great, great value.
Brandon Pettigrew to Lions is another unsexy pick, but in this case I also think it's a low-value one. TEs are usually late-1st talent at best, and that's when they have amazing physical and catching ability. Pettigrew's just a great blocker, and maybe they're going for grit with Delmas in the 2nd round (good pick). But how's Pettigrew going to help them? With Oher still on the board, this was a head-scratcher, even though...

Smell like bust to me: Darrius Heyward-Bey (easy call to make since he's with the Raiders), BJ Raji, Michael Oher. I love predicting busts because you're almost always wrong. 'cept about Heyward-Bey, because no one can succeed with the current Raiders.
 
UniversalWolf said:
I have to admit I'm very happy so far. Raji was good; Raji and Matthews is superb. Ted continues to be unpredictable.

seconded. i just spent all afternoon on packershome.com chatting with some cheeseheads. i'm actually feeling pretty darn good about what TT's done for us. and i guarantee NOBODY expected TT to actually trade UP!!!

@ Kharn: TT's word is that Raji's not there to replace Ryan Pickett, but to enhance and give depth.
 
TwinkieGorilla said:
@ Kharn: TT's word is that Raji's not there to replace Ryan Pickett, but to enhance and give depth.

Instinctively I'd say "oh well that's good value at #9 then", I mean drafting depth in the first half of the 1st round is a bit weird, but perhaps that shows he understands what he's getting.

I like Raji as an old-fashioned one gap defensive tackle. I hate him as a 3-4 nose tackle. I dunno, maybe with some polish he can do this, but I'm not believe it, man, if there's one system Raji doesn't work in, it's 3-4.

Anyway, regardless of how you judge the Pack's two picks, and make no mistake I love the trading up for Matthews, the first day so far belongs to the New England Patriots, Cleveland Browns and the Seattle <s>Highway Robbers</s> Seahawks.

Seriously: I'm not too familiar with Ron Brace, but Butler and Chung are fantastic value at those picks, and exactly what the Pats need. They are dominating this draft.

And finally Everette Brown goes, man, I had him in my mental "first half of first round talent" list. Good value for the Panthers.
EDIT: wait, SF got next year's first-rounder for that? Not horrifying since E Brown is such good value and the Panters are more likely to win a Superbowl than to bust (unlike the Broncos), but man the NFC West is fleecing the rest of the NFL,

Also, going back a bit to unsexy picks, I kind of like Atlanta's pick of Peria Jerry. It's really amazing how complete that team looks now. Also love, LOVE the Jags' balls on picking two OTs with their 1st and 2nd-round picks. That just makes all kinds of sense.

And Pat White to the Dolphins. That makes me smile.

EDIT2: AHAHAHAH Michael Mitchell, Al Davis, are you fucking high?
EDIT3: and the 'Hawks, as we suspected they would, trade back for this 2nd round's great value, and pick up Max Unger. Not the kind of offensive line upgrade we need, but considering what's available that's a fantastic pick. Unger is a great fit at right guard, and has the raw talent to go anywhere in time, or alternatively you could keep him at his position (center) and slide Spencer somewhere else. Hell, Unger would've been good value at our original 2nd round pick (if not for Brown, who would've been a more likely pick) because he fits the Hawks new zone-blocking scheme perfectly, so the 'Hawks, mentally, just traded their 3rd and 4th for Denver's 2010 1st. Grrrrlolz. Highway robbery, man.
 
TwinkieGorilla said:
UniversalWolf said:
I have to admit I'm very happy so far. Raji was good; Raji and Matthews is superb. Ted continues to be unpredictable.

seconded. i just spent all afternoon on packershome.com chatting with some cheeseheads. i'm actually feeling pretty darn good about what TT's done for us. and i guarantee NOBODY expected TT to actually trade UP!!!
You could argue that Ted gave up too much to get Matthews, but I don't think that accounts for the fact that the Packers got two highly-rated players who fit what they want to do. After today I'm excited to see what the new defense is going to look like, because I think it could be really good.

I would've liked to have gotten an OT, but after Jacksonville took Monroe I was glad they went with Raji and didn't reach.
 
Ok, for serious guys, don't you guys see my problem with Raji? He's strong, but he's not big or big-armed enough to play a true nose tackle in a 3-4 system. He's got good rip and burst, which means he's a good one-gap defensive tackle, but if you ask him to anchor as a nose you're basically asking him to play two-gap. He can't do that, he has the strength but not the build or lateral quickness.

You can disagree with me, but I think Raji has bust potential, and I think that bust potential is bigger if you put him in a system he doesn't fit, like 3-4.
 
Brother None said:
Ok, for serious guys, don't you guys see my problem with Raji? He's strong, but he's not big or big-armed enough to play a true nose tackle in a 3-4 system. He's got good rip and burst, which means he's a good one-gap defensive tackle, but if you ask him to anchor as a nose you're basically asking him to play two-gap. He can't do that, he has the strength but not the build or lateral quickness.

You can disagree with me, but I think Raji has bust potential, and I think that bust potential is bigger if you put him in a system he doesn't fit, like 3-4.

i see potential for both sides of this coin. i think both Raji and Matthews could be starters right out of the draft. also, 337 is "not big enough"? w</s>ut. :| the speed and athleticism for a guy that size is pretty spectacular. there's good reason for him to have been up that far in the draft.

also, the Pack are not switching completely to 3-4 this season. they're going to ease into it and go about half/half. i think all players will suffer growing pains this year because of it, but will be pretty strong for it next season. and at any rate, i have a better feeling about our Defense this year than last year. last year seemed like a fucking free-for-all with no plan. this year, there is a very solid plan.
 
I love Matthews. But I think Raji'll bust:

TwinkieGorilla said:
also, 347 is "not big enough"? w</s>ut.

He measured 323 last time I checked, though I think he weighed in the 330s at the Combine.

But we're seriously overlooking something if we define bigness by how fat the dude is. He's 6'1" (and 6'1" and 335 is already too small for an ideal nose tackle), but what's worse is his arms: he has 31¼-inch arm length. You can't do shit in the NFL with those kind of arms, because here's the thing:

TwinkieGorilla said:
the speed and athleticism for a guy that size is pretty spectacular. there's good reason for him to have been up that far in the draft.

Yes, but there's no good reason to draft him into the wrong system. Again, I'm not knocking his burst and athleticism, but his burst means he's a great fit to play one-gap defensive tackle. His arms, in fact, limit him to one-gap defensive tackles because they're too short to hold two D-line men and play two-gap. His short arms limit him to shedding blocks on the highest level.

So here we go: a relatively undersized, but incredible strong DT with good burst. Sounds perfect as a one-gap tackle to me. Sounds like a bust as a nose tackle.

TwinkieGorilla said:
also, the Pack are not switching completely to 3-4 this season. they're going to ease into it and go about half/half. i think all players will suffer growing pains this year because of it, but will be pretty strong for it next season. and at any rate, i have a better feeling about our Defense this year than last year. last year seemed like a fucking free-for-all with no plan. this year, there is a very solid plan.

Cool, but I still don't see the plan with Raji. If you're planning to switch to 3-4, draft someone who is a fits 3-4. If the plan is to switch to a system, why are you drafting someone who just doesn't fit that system? It's true Raji will be able to start immediately as a one-gap DT before you switch to 3-4, but what's the plan on the long-term?
 
TwinkieGorilla said:
well, i'll let TT speak for himself, since it was his pick...not mine (pretty interesting read actually).

http://www.packers.com/news/stories/2009/04/25/3/

Well all I can say is "what the hell"?

bringing both stoutness against the run and disruption against the pass So he's going to be a one-gap defensive tackle?

"He is more than a space-eater," Thompson said. "He's a little more than that. We're excited about him." That's the point, he's not a space-eater at all.

It almost sounds as if the plan is to play him as a one-gap defensive tackle, rotate him in but not use him as a two-gap. Raji can rush the passer. He can stuff the run. That's how Thompson describes him as well. But he can't hold two O-lineman as a two-gap tackle, he lacks the physical skillset.

Seriously, I'm confused. Thompson makes it sounds like you're just not going to have a true nose tackle the coming year, or rotate him with Pickett (who isn't an ideal nose tackle either) to have him play one-gap on certain downs.

My head is going to burst here, I can not figure out the logic behind this pick. Someone help me out. Are you just not going to play traditional 3-4 next year? Did the plan change or something? Are you inventing a new kind of 3-4 that lacks a traditional nose tackle?
 
:shrug:

dunno. guess we'll just have to wait and see. right now i'm more concerned with beefing up our O-line than anything. i would really love to see an A-Rod who doesn't have to release immediately or run for his fucking life on every down.
 
Brother None said:
New England Patriots: I know we all hate the Pats and Bellicheat in particular, but once again they show why they became the best franchise this decade. They identify that this is a loaded draft in mid-rounds but nothing particularly special high-up, and absolutely rock trading all over the place. There is so much value in the second day here, and the Pats are going to stockpile on it.
They completely left the first round, and in so doing, I think they had the best 1st round of any team. And boom, with the 2nd pick of the 2nd round they pick up Patrick Chung, who is talented enough to be a late-1st ruond talent. Seriously, dudes, if you dislike the Pats, it's time to tear your hair out, because they're owning this draft so far.
Pats have basically checked out of the draft and are stockpiling picks for next year already trading 3rds for 2nds next year. No 1st rounders...hmmm saving cap space for Julius Peppers? Don't forget a free-agency class of Fred Taylor, Shawn Springs, Galloway & Lee Bodden.
Oh, and there's this guy Brady who'll be back too.
Not Too Shabby.
Belichek is a shrewd motherfucker. I guess he plans on being around for a while. 8-)
 
Checked out? They've still got the most picks I think, and already picked up 6 guys. Of those 6, Chung and Butler can slide in immediately, McKenzie is a bit speculative, Vollmer/Brace might be developmental, and Tate is great if he heals well.

Sure he's moving to next year a lot, but he's also picking up some quality mid-round talent here.
 
TwinkieGorilla said:
right now i'm more concerned with beefing up our O-line than anything

T.J. Lang, G. Ok I guess. Sounds like a good athlete and an upgrade, though I don't see why the hell no one - including the Pack - picks up Duke Robinson at this point.
 
Brother None said:
T.J. Lang, G. Ok I guess. Sounds like a good athlete and an upgrade, though I don't see why the hell no one - including the Pack - picks up Duke Robinson at this point.

he looks like a real aggressive scrapper. i am, for the moment, impressed with what i just watched. i'm hoping for another O-line pick this round.

i'm not sure about Robinson, but a few Pack fans were hoping for Meredith, who supposedly had "problems with coaching staff". the Packers are very meticulous about their organization and ego-checking (part of this is tradition in GB and part is because the organization is owned by the city) so this often plays a big part in their drafting choices.

you'll never see a diva on the Packers, and i love it that way (arguably, Favre was a diva...and i'm not quite sure, other than "he saved the franchise, etc, etc" he was given that sort of free pass. i loved the guy, but i'm ready to move on)
 
Honestly, Duke Robinson is the best guard on the board. Not overly athletic or mature, but a good, huge player with huge upside, projected as a 2nd-round pick. TJ Lang was always projected as a 4th-rounder I guess...I dunno, Meredith is a tackle so that's another discussion, but if you have to pick out of two guard, Robinson or Lang, Robinson just is better.

And yeah, scouting for character makes a lot of sense. And Meredith has major character questions, and I'll admit Duke Robinson has a few question marks, specifically at work ethic, but still, he's sliding way too far.
 
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