NFL 2009

[SimpleMinded]

For sure, Steven Jackson's great, I love seeing him finally get the fantasy points to reflect his talent.

Just seems funny to me seeing the score so close after a few people's claims here that New Orleans are the monsters.

Me? I'm going to keep cheering on the bengals. I've been loving those guys the last few weeks and think I might make them my honorary team.

 

[UniversalWolf]

Pretty nice bounce-back game for the Pack.

Charles Woodson: 9 tackles, 2 forced fumbles, 1 interception, 1 sack.

The guy doesn't get enough credit.

 

[TwinkieGorilla]

Charles Woodson: 9 tackles, 2 forced fumbles, 1 interception, 1 sack.

The guy doesn't get enough credit.

<----!!!

all i want is for Woody and Driver to get rings. motherfucker they deserve it so fucking bad it hurts.

 

[UniversalWolf]

Does anyone know how to get ahold of Cimmerian? We'd better check on him because I'm afraid he might be strangling himself right now.

 

[Brother None]

Talk about the ugliest possible way to lose a game. Not only was it a bad call to go for it, they probably made it but lacked challenges to overturn the call (which makes the going for it even dumber). That's some exceptionally boneheaded playcalling.
Can't believe how good Vollmer's looked. Makes me jealous since my team's had so much trouble gathering good O-line talent.

Also boy the Pack's been up and down this year. Oddness, but they're still in the race.

Unlike my Hawks Man, that was a good game though, shame D couldn't find an answer when the Cards O started firing on all cylinders and that put too much pressure on our O. I think the Hawks O doesn't look like it'll be great anytime soon, but man does this team have a lot of young, elite talent on D. Should be awesome if enough fulfill their potential in the coming years.

Awesome week-end of football too. Some of the have-nots (Redskins, Rams) flashing their teeth, awesome top-tier matchups in Bengals-Steelers, Eagles-Chargers and Colts-Patriots.

 

[TwinkieGorilla]

if we keep winning...and some other mothers keep losing...

NFC

1st Round Bye
1) Saints Record (9-0) > (8-1) vikings
2) vikings Record (8-1) currently > (6-3) Cowboys

Divisional Leaders
3) Cowboys Conference Record (5-2) > (4-2) Cardinals
4) Cardinals Record (6-3) > 49'ers (4-5)

Wild Cards
5) Falcons Strength of Victory .422 > .292 Packers
6) Packers Conference Record (4-3) > (3-3) Giants

The Rest in Order:
7) Giants Head to Head win over Eagles
8) Eagles Record (5-4) > (4-5) 49'ers
9) 49'ers Conference Record (4-2) > (4-4) Panthers
10) Panthers Conference Record (4-4) > (2-4) Bears
11) Bears Record (4-5) > (3-6) Redskins
12) Redskins Strength of Schedule .296 > .259 Seahawks
13) Seahawks Record (3-6) > (1-8) Bucanneers
14) Bucanneers Conference Record (1-5) > (1-6) Rams
15) Rams Conference Record (1-6) > Lions (1-7)
16) Lions

 

[Cimmerian Nights]

Does anyone know how to get ahold of Cimmerian? We'd better check on him because I'm afraid he might be strangling himself right now.

I'm OK, I preemptively herbally anesthetized myself and hid all sharp objects, put kids to bed beforehand. That was pretty stunning. (Still not as bad as the AFCC game comeback uggggh).

I know everyone will take aim at BB, and that was an insanely aggressive/arrogant call to go for it. But the play they called was even worse. The play actually worked, but it was a 2 yard flat pattern WTF? But the goaline turnover by that cupcake Maroney, Brady INT in the end-zone, settling for Field goals instead of TDs, any of those would've made it a moot point. They actually outplayed the Colts for the first 50 minutes. FWIW.

This is what I was talking about a month ago when I complained about their shitty red-zone offense, playing a full 60 minutes, and going for it on 4th.
There ya go...they still have a ways to go and a lot to work on.

But hey, Pats were underdogs and did cover the spread. They did a lot of stuff really great, O-Line looked good, esp. the rookie. I'm not really worried about a potential playoff rematch, Pats pushed them to the edge.

Have to tip my hat to Manning the fucking hayseed goober. MVP of MVPs.

 

[Sander]

Talk about the ugliest possible way to lose a game. Not only was it a bad call to go for it, they probably made it but lacked challenges to overturn the call (which makes the going for it even dumber). That's some exceptionally boneheaded playcalling.

I think the play itself was pretty shitty, but going for it there definitely isn't.

It really boils down to whether or not you think Manning can get that touchdown. He'll get it a ton of the time when he's allowed to start from the Pats' 28, but given that he was really, really hot and the Pats D was tired and looking really bad, he would've gotten it from his own half a significant amount of the time as well. It depends on those stats whether or not it was a good call, but I don't see it being that bad a call. Manning can certainly drive his team down the field to the endzone with 2 minutes and a timeout.

Then add to that the fact that Manning will leave more time on a short drive than on a long drive, giving the Pats more time to still get that game-winning field-goal, and it's starting to look like it's not that bad of a decision.

 

[Cimmerian Nights]

I had a feeling they wouldn't have stopped Manning either way.

Still, you have to make Manning beat you, you can't give Peyton Manning the ball on the 28.
He had already thrown 2 INTs, and was throwing some real ducks.

Then add to that the fact that Manning will leave more time on a short drive than on a long drive, giving the Pats more time to still get that game-winning field-goal, and it's starting to look like it's not that bad of a decision.

Except that they didn't really commit to letting him score quickly. They actually stuffed Addai on the 1, which would defeat the purpose of giving up the score to get the ball back, all I'm thinking then is play action to Wayne and it's over.

So even if you can defend going for it in order to get the ball back, it's still shitty clock management.

Problem is the Patriots have become the Colts to stay competitive with the Colts, and when you play by their rules, the last person to score wins. And that's what happened.

Ultimately the implication here is that the Patriots don't get homefield. However, when you play in New England with the offense they have now, having to play in Pittsburg or Indy or San Diego or Cinncinnati (?!?!) isn't that bad.
Brady & Belichick are 2-0 in AFCC games in Pittsburg.
Brady is nastier in a dome than he is at home. San Diego didn't fare too well the last time the Pats came for a playoff game.

After what teams like the Giants and Cardinals have shown, all you have to do is make the playoffs.


FWIW he did the same thing against Atlanta earlier this year. Up by 6, less than 2:00, in their own territory. But they got it. Of course Atlanta isn't the Colts.

 

[Sander]

Except that they didn't really commit to letting him score quickly. They actually stuffed Addai on the 1, which would defeat the purpose of giving up the score to get the ball back, all I'm thinking then is play action to Wayne and it's over.

So even if you can defend going for it in order to get the ball back, it's still shitty clock management.

No, that's not what I meant. I don't mean going for it so you can get the ball back, I mean going for it to get the first down, failing that stop the Colts (which isn't impossible or anything), failing that (so plan C) is scoring a field goal after he punches it in. It's just another possible advantage to going for it.

All of the football stats sites have something to say about it, and most analysis shows it's the correct call. It isn't that hard for the Colts to get back to the 28, because it's always easier to work with a long field, especially against a tired defense. And once they get to the 28, they're essentially back in the same situation with a little less time.

Problem is the Patriots have become the Colts to stay competitive with the Colts, and when you play by their rules, the last person to score wins. And that's what happened.

Ultimately the implication here is that the Patriots don't get homefield. However, when you play in New England with the offense they have now, having to play in Pittsburg or Indy or San Diego or Cinncinnati (?!?!) isn't that bad.
Brady & Belichick are 2-0 in AFCC games in Pittsburg.
Brady is nastier in a dome than he is at home. San Diego didn't fare too well the last time the Pats came for a playoff game.

After what teams like the Giants and Cardinals have shown, all you have to do is make the playoffs.

Of course. Once you get to the playoffs, your regular season record doesn't matter any more.
Unless you're on track for a perfect season and already started writing books about that perfect season. Just to get your hopes dashed.

 

[Brother None]

I think the play itself was pretty shitty, but going for it there definitely isn't.

You're talking about a team going for it on 4th & more than inches at their own 28 while up 6 points...

...

I'm not sure how I can seriously reply to that. And don't bother with statistics sites on this, they'll just point to the 70%-conversion rate for 4th down attempts, a meaningless statistic that completely ignores the difference between various 4th down attempts.

I had a feeling they wouldn't have stopped Manning either way.

This is the only relevant point, and shows a pretty stiff lack of trust in the Pats D which somewhat surprises me, but eh, it might be true.

 

[Sander]

You're talking about a team going for it on 4th & more than inches at their own 28 while up 6 points...

These decisions aren't isolated, you have to compare them to the alternative. Which is basically giving the Colts the ball at their 20-yard line, with 2 minutes and a TO to get the TD.

...

I'm not sure how I can seriously reply to that. And don't bother with statistics sites on this, they'll just point to the 70%-conversion rate for 4th down attempts, a meaningless statistic that completely ignores the difference between various 4th down attempts.

No, they won't.
But yes, it's about those assumptions. If you want to play with them, this Bill Belichick calculator should help you out.

With the rather pessimistic (for the Pats) statistics of making the first down 40% of the time, Colts scoring from the 28-yard-line 80% of the time and 40% of the time after a punt, these are the results:
Chances of winning if you go for it: 52%
Chances of winning if you punt: 60%

Really pessimistic stats, and it's still pretty close.

It may have been a bad decisions, but it's not the clear-cut horrible decision you're making it out to be.

 

[Brother None]

These decisions aren't isolated, you have to compare them to the alternative. Which is basically giving the Colts the ball at their 20-yard line, with 2 minutes and a TO to get the TD.

Yeah. How many times have you seen a team do that? I mean, it's done, but it's not exactly a great proposition.

No, they won't.
But yes, it's about those assumptions. If you want to play with them, this Bill Belichick calculator should help you out.

Yes, thank you, I also read FO so I have also seen both, neither one disproves what I'm saying, but tcha-tcha on that eh?

Also lulz @ your statistics. The difference between 50 yards in field position is 40% scoring chance? Do you even watch this game?

It may have been a bad decisions, but it's not the clear-cut horrible decision you're making it out to be.

Me? I'm not making it out to be "horrible". I call it bone-headed, which it was. Mostly because it didn't happen in isolation: what people are critical of are the last quarter of coaching, because they might've noticed the usage of two timeouts leaving BB without a challenge. As I mentioned.

 

[Cimmerian Nights]

All of the football stats sites have something to say about it, and most analysis shows it's the correct call.

I'm sure Belichik knew that too, but throwing it on 3rd and 4th downs was stupid. It's the Colts, they're weak against inside rushes.

But yeah, over the course of a season, calling that play probably would pay off. They are something like 78% on 4th and 2.

This is why I never fault BB for keeping his boot on the opponent's throat when he gets them down. 17 point lead blown. 18 points in the championship game. This rivalry has been one-sided for a while now.

And how the fuck do you play the Colts in Indy three years in a row in the regular season?
Non-division team, 3 years in a row, in the regular season in their building?

Sketchy fucking scheduling NFL!

It isn't that hard for the Colts to get back to the 28, because it's always easier to work with a long field, especially against a tired defense. And once they get to the 28, they're essentially back in the same situation with a little less time.

True. And after the way the Colts came back against the Dolphins, you could see them doing the same to the Pats D.

People that would call him stupid need to realize how he rolled the dice like this in the 4th quarter against the Rams in their 1st SB win against the Greatest Show on Turf. It worked that time for him, in spades.

Even Madden said Belichik would play for the tie and he gambled and took it all the way down the field and scored and won as he knew his D was toast and Warner and Co. would cut them to ribbons.

I'm sure some people called that decision stupid when he made it too.

Of course. Once you get to the playoffs, your regular season record doesn't matter any more.

Well, I mean they are a shitty weather team that would probably benefit from playing in a nicer climate because of their offensive style. Foxboro isn't one of those loud, Rah-Rah, towel waving, wave doing type of stadiums. I'm saying it won't hurt them too much to have to play on the road in the playoffs.

I had a feeling they wouldn't have stopped Manning either way.

This is the only relevant point, and shows a pretty stiff lack of trust in the Pats D which somewhat surprises me, but eh, it might be true.

More like begrudging respect for Manning.
But, like I said, you have to make him beat you.

I was the one saying "they aren't this good" after the 59-0 Titans shellacking.

 

[Sander]

Yeah. How many times have you seen a team do that? I mean, it's done, but it's not exactly a great proposition.

I've seen it happen at least twice against the Bucs this year.


You have to keep in mind that Manning was extremely hot and the Pats D was really tired. It's not a great proposition, but it's not that hard either.

Yes, thank you, I also read FO so I have also seen both, neither one disproves what I'm saying, but tcha-tcha on that eh?

Also lulz @ your statistics. The difference between 50 yards in field position is 40% scoring chance? Do you even watch this game?

I'm saying the Colts are twice as likely to score from the 28-yard line as they are from, say, the 70. Given the tired defense and Manning being on a roll. I don't see that much wrong with that assumption. This wasn't the game it was in the 1st quarter, y'know.

Me? I'm not making it out to be "horrible". I call it bone-headed, which it was.

That's one of the most arbitrary non-distinctions I've ever seen.

 

[UniversalWolf]

Can't believe how good Vollmer's looked.

I never knew the Pats had a German tackle.

BTW, who's up for Cleveland @ Detroit this weekend? Besides me, I mean.

 

[Brother None]

I never knew the Pats had a German tackle.

Yeah, whoda think. I love seeing Europeans in the NFL.

I've seen it happen at least twice against the Bucs this year.

Against good teams, obv.

You have to keep in mind that Manning was extremely hot

Gay.

That's one of the most arbitrary non-distinctions I've ever seen.

It isn't though. Stupid and terrible are marks of a bad coach. Boneheaded is more when we, as viewers, can't figure out what the coach is thinking. And again, that's not about the 4th&2 call itself, it's about the entire quarter, and the fact that they had no timeouts left.

 

[TwinkieGorilla]

Gay.

lol

 

[[PCE]el_Prez]

The Pats have been converting 76 percent of 4th downs this season. If I were Belechick, I'd of went for it as well. No way I'm going to give Manning another chance with 2 minutes when I can win it all with a short gain.

 

[Cimmerian Nights]

Yeah, my bigger problem is with clock/personnel/situational management, they could've handled that better. But shit like that happens when your coordinators leave for HC jobs every 2 years.

And not to belabor this 4-2 discussion, but Melvin Bullit made a helluva tackle there.

The whole controversy is really a machination of the national media as usual. I love how guys like Trent fucking Dilfer who was an INT machine going back to his Fresno days, call BB's judgement out, that's rich. Which if you have a point great, but if your whole argument is predicated on "you can't do this!" then clearly it's just a knee-jerk response, and the same assholes call Belichik a genius if he gets a more favorable spot.
And do Bruschi and Harrison really have grounds to question Bekichik when they themselves gave up a 21-3 lead in the 4th quarter in a fucking conference championship game to Manning. They were gassed and got lit up like Christmas trees.

My concerns coming out of that as a Pats fan are the same thing I said in the 'running up the score' thread. They have problems playing 60 solid minutes of football, they still suck in the red zone (26th), and they obviously need work on 4th down if they go for it.