Makenshi said:
BN X Welsh Wars! To your bunkers, people!
Welsh said:
And yes, I don't trust Russia. Its a bully that uses it oil, but at the end of the day it seems mostly like a petro-state with a big military and nuclear weapons and a state run by a strongman. Which, by the way, is another reason for getting off oil.
Your Russian description suits the US as well, to some extent... it's a bully that uses oil, has a big military and nuclear weapons, and is a state run by a strongman.
OK, Bush is not strong anymore, but he was from September 2001 until around 2006/2007, and that was long enough to describe him as haveing been a strongman.
As for Bush- absolutely. We got hit on 9/11, Americans wanted revenge, and the President got a big boost in the popularity figures. Truth is that Bush dropped the ball leading up to 9/11, but that was only discovered later.
Well, as an oil importer, we really don't have much of an oil weapon but import a lot. That's probaby why Hugo Chavez is such a pain in our ass.
But yes, we've got probably the most "imperial" president in 30 years in office. Worse, he's an incompetent fool whose administration has been slowing destroying the state and who's actions are, to me, almost treason. So no, I am not defending him.
The problem with the US is that while its military power is still strong, other forms of power- ideological, economic and political have been weakening. That needs to change with the next administration. If its McCain, I doubt it will.
But there are significant differences between the US and Russia. Economically, Russia's economy is roughly 1/12 of the US, and less than that of the EU combined and below that of Brazil- which is definitely a third world country. Don't get me wrong- Russia's economy has grown, but so has state control and efforts to create rule-of-law and reduce corruption- essential for the building of a rational market economy, have not be that great. A lot of that wealth comes from sitting on the 3rd largest reserves in oil- so Russia is definitely a petro-state. The danger here might be that Russia becomes a rentier state, but I don't think so. Russia is considered a BRIC, which places it firmly with Brazil, India and China as rising third world states.
In contrast, the problem with the US economy is that its manufacturing sector has grown weak and its services sector economy too big, plus the government has been reducing regulation over its financial rules. We've also got a big debt problem that needs to be resolved. But that said, most of the US current problem is a liquidity crisis, but it remains a very large and diversified economy. While Russia's middle class is growing and US middle class is shrinking, the US middle class is still very well off and robust. In terms of international influence, Russia has little when compared to its prestige in the days of the Cold War. US international prestige has sunk, but that's partially the result of dipshit Bush and is circle of idiots. Replace him, and I think there is a good chance the US can get its house in order. US still has a powerful economy.
So I would also agree that, like Putin & Co, Bush & Co is pursuing a policy that is reckless, poorly considered and arrogant. However, in a country with a wounded pride- like Russia, a military win is a great way to shore up national pride and support for the ruling class.
But these kinds of operations are like marriages- easy to get into, but difficult and painful to get out of. Ideally, both the US and Russia have shared interests in the region and should cooperate. But they don't. One could see US support for Georgia as part of US policy to encircle Russia or even Iran. Is Russia's Iran policy so well thought out? Or is it a bit of commercial opportunism? Or is it a thumb in the eye of the West? Of course the Russians can say, "But you Americans did this!" - and then it becomes a game of more bullshit.
Which is what seems to be to be what this Georgian-Russian problem turned into. A lot of Russians will say, "But the Georgians invaded." Yeah. And the Russians were all benevolent in those breakaways? There was no instigation on both sides to this? The Russians can complain that the Georgians were planning genocide, but it seems that there are also people saying that the Georgians were the recipients of genocide at other times. As said, I think both sides here have dirty hands and that these breakaways are going to be a mess for whoever gets them.
The Georgians don't want to lose their territorial integrity and there is land up there that they want back. Why? Maybe it has something to do with-
In 1995, Shevardnadze was officially elected as a president of Georgia. At the same time, two regions of Georgia, Abkhazia and South Ossetia, quickly became embroiled in disputes with local separatists that led to widespread inter-ethnic violence and wars. Supported by Russia, Abkhazia and South Ossetia achieved de facto independence from Georgia. More than 250,000 Georgians were ethnically cleansed from Abkhazia by Abkhaz separatists and North Caucasians volunteers (including Chechens) in 1992-1993. More than 25,000 Georgians were expelled from Tskhinvali as well, and many Ossetian families were forced to abandon their homes in the Borjomi region and move to Russia.
Bad blood and a desire for revenge?
I see this as a game with very high stakes over very little gains. It's stupid.
Edit-
Oh.. it continues.
August 15, 2008
Russia Vows to Support Two Enclaves, in Retort to Bush
By ELLEN BARRY and C.J. CHIVERS
MOSCOW — President Dmitri A. Medvedev of Russia said Thursday that Russia would act as an international guarantor of the two pro-Russian enclaves at the center of the crisis with Georgia, and Foreign Minister Sergey V. Lavrov said that Georgia could “forget about” territorial integrity because of the war.
The comments did not stake out a new position, but together, they offered a sharp retort to President Bush’s insistence a day earlier that “the sovereign and territorial integrity of Georgia be respected.”
The Russian rebuke came as Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice headed to the region to work for a settlement and to show support for the Georgian president, Mikheil Saakashvili.
If it were up to me, let the Russians have them. Not sure if this will lead to much autonomy.
Meanwhile, in Georgia, Russian forces briefly allowed the Georgian police to return to the city of Gori on Thursday morning as the Russian troops appeared to prepare to pull out. But joint patrols were canceled three hours later and the city returned to full Russian control.
In a further sign that Russian forces remained in control of key parts of Georgian territory, Russian tanks patrolled the city of Poti, a Black Sea port farther west.
Mr. Medvedev said he would support the independence aspirations of South Ossetians and Abkhazians in accordance with the United Nations Charter, international conventions of 1966 and the Helsinki Act on Security and Cooperation in European.
“You have been defending your land, and the right is on your side,” Mr. Medvedev said at a meeting with leaders of the two breakaway regions.
“Russia’s position is unchanged: we will support any decisions taken by the peoples of South Ossetia and Abkhazia in accordance with the U.N. Charter,” he said, adding that “not only do we support but we will guarantee them.”
As Ms. Rice traveled to the region, she stopped in France for discussions with the French president, Nicolas Sarkozy, who brokered the cease-fire accord between Russia and Georgia.
Speaking after the meeting, at the president’s summer residence in southeast France, Ms. Rice urged Russia to honor the truce and withdraw all of its troops.
“The provisional cease-fire that was agreed to really must go into place,” she said after the two-hour meeting with Mr. Sarkozy. “And that means that military activities have to cease.”
Ms. Rice was due later to travel to Tbilisi, the Georgian capital.
On Wednesday, the United States and Georgia called the Russian advances into Gori and another strategic Georgian city a violation of the cease-fire agreement struck only hours earlier.
In response, Mr. Bush sent American troops to Georgia to oversee a “vigorous and ongoing” humanitarian mission, in a direct challenge to Russia’s display of military dominance over the region. Mr. Bush demanded that Russia abide by the cease-fire and withdraw its forces or risk its place in “the diplomatic, political, economic and security structures of the 21st century.” It was his strongest warning yet of potential retaliation against Russia over the conflict.
In Gori, which was the focus of international protest after Russia shelled it and occupied it on Wednesday, the attempt at joint patrols on Thursday suggested a cooling of tensions there.
Gori is just 40 miles from Tbilisi, and rumors had circulated on Wednesday of a possible advance on the city.
It was not clear why the joint patrols failed, but it appeared that personnel on the ground were in conflict. Around 10 a.m. Thursday, a Russian Army major ordered Georgian and Russian police officers to patrol in pairs. But this clearly did not last. “We had to go or there would have been shooting,” said a Georgian officer, who would not give his name.
Joint patrols? Bad idea.
More than 30 Georgian police officers left Gori and returned to a post outside the city; shortly afterward Russian troops fired three artillery rounds. Their target was not clear.
In Poti, three Russian tanks were seen patrolling the city. Villagers there said the Russian tanks frequently made the 30-minute drive from their base just northeast in Senaki to Poti to perform exercises on an abandoned military base, with troops jumping off their tanks and sweeping the area around them.
A Georgian state television reporter was shot, but not seriously hurt, on Thursday afternoon while broadcasting live from the side of the road between Tbilisi and Gori. The reporter, Tamara Urushadze, wearing a flak jacket marked “TV,” was speaking when muffled pops could be heard. She looked over her shoulder, then stepped sideways and fell in front of the camera. A bullet grazed her left wrist, and Ms. Urushadze continued broadcasting live as she held her bleeding arm.
In an interview on a liberal radio station, Ekho Moskvy, Mr. Lavrov, the Russian foreign minister, said that Georgia’s territorial integrity was “de facto limited” and that any agreement suggesting otherwise would be “deeply insulting” to the people of South Ossetia and Abkhazia.
He also said he was not worried about the threat of international isolation, the Interfax news agency reported.
“I don’t know how they are going to isolate us,” he said.
The decision on Wednesday to send the American military, even on a humanitarian mission, deepened the United States’ commitment to Georgia and American allies in the former Soviet sphere, just as Russia has been determined to reassert its control in the area.
A senior Pentagon official said Wednesday that the relief effort was intended “to show to Russia that we can come to the aid of a European ally, and that we can do it at will, whenever and wherever we want.”
At a minimum, American forces in Georgia will test Russia’s pledge to allow relief supplies into the country; they could also deter further Russian attacks, though at the risk of a potential military confrontation.
“We expect Russia to ensure that all lines of communication and transport, including seaports, airports, roads and airspace, remain open for the delivery of humanitarian assistance and for civilian transit,” Mr. Bush said. “We expect Russia to meet its commitment to cease all military activities in Georgia, and we expect all Russian forces that entered Georgia in recent days to withdraw from that country.”
Mr. Saakashvili, who had sharply criticized what he called a failure of the West to offer support, declared the United States relief operation a “turning point” in the conflict, which began last Thursday when Georgian forces tried to establish control in the breakaway region of South Ossetia, only to be routed by the Russians.
Mr. Saakashvili interpreted the aid operation as a decision to defend Georgia’s ports and airports, though Bush administration and Pentagon officials quickly made it clear that would not be the case. A senior administration official said, “We won’t be protecting the airport or seaport, but we’ll certainly protect our assets if we need to.”
Mr. Bush spoke in the Rose Garden of the White House on Wednesday, flanked by Ms. Rice and the secretary of defense, Robert M. Gates. He announced Ms. Rice’s plans to fly to France and Georgia, but State Department officials said there were no plans for her to go to Moscow.
Mr. Bush’s remarks, like the military operation he ordered, reflected a growing apprehension within the White House over Russia’s offensive, as well as mounting frustration that Prime Minister Vladimir V. Putin of Russia, whom Mr. Bush often calls a friend, was unmoved by appeals for moderation. Underscoring the urgency, Mr. Bush, who had remained at the Olympics in Beijing while the conflict erupted, postponed a planned trip to his ranch in Crawford, Tex., which was to have begun on Thursday.
The first relief aircraft, a C-17 transporter carrying medical supplies and materials for shelter for thousands displaced by the fighting, arrived in Tbilisi on Wednesday; a second was due Thursday.
Ms. Rice called Mr. Lavrov, and informed him about the relief operation. The presence of American troops to help the aid mission will also allow the United States to monitor whether Russia was honoring the cease-fire.
At a news conference at the State Department on Wednesday, Ms. Rice evoked some of the darkest memories of the cold war, though she stopped well short of promises of direct military support to Georgia.
“This is not 1968, and the invasion of Czechoslovakia, where Russia can invade its neighbor, occupy a capital, overthrow a government and get away with it,” she said. “Things have changed.”
She and Mr. Bush gave credence to Georgia’s accusations that Russian forces continued to operate in violation of the cease-fire. Russia insisted that all of its operations were permitted under the agreement.
The cease-fire included a provision that required Russian forces to withdraw to their “normal bases of encampment” but also allowed them to “implement additional security measures.”
A senior American official said the vague language “would allow the Russians to do almost anything.”
Only hours after the agreement was reached early Wednesday, a Russian tank battalion occupied parts of Gori, a strategic city in central Georgia. Hundreds of additional Russian soldiers also poured over the border from Russia into South Ossetia, accompanied by fuel trucks and attack helicopters.
The presence of Russian forces in Gori frayed nerves as rumors circulated of an attack on Tbilisi itself. A Russian battalion commander, at a checkpoint on the highway from Gori to the capital, spoke menacingly of Mr. Saakashvili.
“If he doesn’t understand the situation, we’ll have to go further,” the commander said on the condition of anonymity. “He doesn’t seem to understand that the Russian Army is much stronger than the Georgian Army. His tanks remain in their places. His air force is dead. His navy is also. His army is demoralized.”
Ellen Barry reported from Moscow and C.J. Chivers from Gori, Georgia. Reporting was contributed by Steven Lee Myers, Thom Shanker and Helene Cooper from Washington, Sabrina Tavernise from Gori, and Andrew Kramer from Tbilisi, Georgia.
A couple of updates- from NPR.
US military action seems unlikely according to the US Defense Secretary-
Gates Sees No Need For U.S. Military In Georgia
Defense Secretary Robert Gates said Thursday Russian forces appear to be pulling back from positions inside Georgia, dismissing questions that U.S. troops might aid the pro-U.S. Georgian government.
"I don't see any prospect for the use of military force by the United States in this situation," Gates said at a briefing in Washington Thursday morning. "The United States spent 45 years working very hard to avoid a military confrontation with Russia. I see no reason to change that approach today."
Gates said the Russians appear to be withdrawing from Georgia into the conflict zone in South Ossetia. He said many of the reports on the conflict been incorrect, adding that U.S. officials now believe that the Russians never enacted a blockade and that the port city of Poti is intact.
"The information we have available to us, first of all, (is) the air corridors are open; we've seen no indication they are blocking roads," he said.
Georgia last week used airstrikes and ground forces in an attempt to retake South Ossetia, a pro-Russian province that threw off Georgian rule in the 1990s. Russian officials responded by sending in troops that threatened to crush the small country, saying Russian peacekeepers on the South Ossetia border were killed by Georgian airstrikes.
It seems that the Russian actions have actually strengthened NATO in Eastern Europe.
Poland, U.S. Sign Missile Defense Agreement
Poland and the United States reached an agreement Thursday to install American missiles inside Poland as part of a missile defense system that has infuriated Russia.
The deal, signed Thursday in Warsaw, includes what Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk called a "mutual commitment" between the two nations - beyond that of NATO - to come to each other's assistance in case of danger.
That was an obvious reference to the force and ferocity with which Russia rolled into Georgia in recent days, taking the key city of Gori and apparently burning and destroying Georgian military outposts and airfields.
Tusk said that the North Atlantic Treaty Organization would be too slow in coming to Poland's defense if Poland were threatened and that the bloc would take "days, weeks to start that
machinery."
More on Thurs in Georgia here-
http://www.npr.org/templates/story/story.php?storyId=93522075
also seems that Georgia was warned against its actions in the seperatist regions-
http://www.npr.org/templates/story/story.php?storyId=93540746
http://www.npr.org/templates/story/story.php?storyId=93573814
Looks like this is getting ugly-
http://www.npr.org/templates/story/story.php?storyId=93606405
http://www.npr.org/templates/story/story.php?storyId=93606408
(Listen to the report- seems that Russian claims of preventing Georgia from beginning a genocide are largely unfounded).
More background from the BBC and Public Radio International-
http://www.theworld.org/?q=node/20038