Why don't we have a communist society yet? I mean we could.

Discussion in 'General Discussion Forum' started by Crni Vuk, Feb 17, 2019.

  1. Crni Vuk

    Crni Vuk M4A3 Oldfag oTO Orderite

    Nov 25, 2008
    Then maybe I am understanding your intentions wrong, if that's the case then I am sorry. But I just can't follow your thought here in what you're actual intend is. To tell me that it's an issue? Sure. But is it the actual cause? And how much of an impact does it really has? And why are we talking about immigrants and not the people that actually pay those wages. Again, who is actually deciding those wages. The immigrants? The employees? The employer? Did you ever had illegal migrants working for you? If yes, why did you employ them? Why did you not pay a higher wage? And so on. It is one thing to recognize an issue but the conclusion you draw from it is a whole different story.

    Because even if I would now make the argument to completely close the border so that no immigrant - legal or illegal - could cross it anymore I do not think that we would really see such a huge change in wages to be honest as there are a lot of factors playing a role here.

    You just told me that you saw people doing jobs that have been done by white Aussies before - If I get that right. But that doesn't explain why the wages are so 'low'. Why do you think those immigrants accept the lower wages in the first place?

    There could be many reasons here or a combination of reasons. For example that the Aussies which did those jobs before simply moved up in the food chain, or they saved money and moved away, or some simply decided not to pursue those jobs anymore saying fuck it, I am getting more money being unemployed! Or the area you're living in has become a hot spot for demographic changes where more migrants are moving in because the rents are cheaper compared to other neighbourhoods and so on. There really is a ton of information missing here.

    For example do we actually know about how many people we're talking about? Is there actually a correlation between low wages and the number of immigrants you spot in your area? Or could it just be coincidence? I am not saying that your wrong. I just don't think it's that simple and we're really missing a lot of information here. Not to mention that we're again stuck in this "Migrants push wages down' debate where we talk about effects and not necessarily reasons. Again who is employing them and why are they agreeing to this low wage in the first place? You are an employer from what I know. Are you employing many immigrants? And are you paying them a low wage? If yes, then why aren't you employing native citizens paying them a higher wage? And if you do pay higher wages, why are other employers not doing the same? And so on.


    Also consider this for a moment, let us say you're an immigrant and you managed to move to a country like Australia to either support your family or simply to improve your situation. You can barely speak the language and you have no degree or the degree you have is not recognized - that is quite often the case by the way with migrants at least from the experiences I have made when I used to work in a fast food restaurant for some time. So naturally if you're an immigrant this limits your choices in what type of jobs you can do, which are often the ones that require either very little training or little to no knowledge. Higher education is very often expensive even for native citizens and if you have a language barrier this makes mit a lot more difficult as well.

    So maybe the reason why you see those people in low wage jobs is simply because that's the only available job for them and now you have to think about that immigrants are often not the type of worker that actually refuses the work, knows about unions and is in general easier to exploit. And many native Australians might actually simply end up more in the 'middle class' jobs because of the head start they have simply by growing up in that area and actually speaking the language and having a degree.

    What I am saying is, there are many explanations possible here and you do not even give them a chance. We're only stuck in one narrative. Immigrants and wages. But the truth is that employers don't care 'who' they employ as long as the job is done and they make a profit.

    Or to ask you another question. Do you think the employers would suddenly start to pay a higher wage simply because the person they employ is a native Australian?
     
  2. Serifan

    Serifan Orderite Orderite

    Aug 3, 2006
    Yes you have my intentions wrong. You think I care. I don't because I'm not a low skilled worker or poor. It's not a major issue for me just merely making fun of your commie logic of wanting to help poor people but supporting policies that have an effect on helping poor people. in the end I don't create laws, I don't govern corporations I have no say on immigration levels or inforcing people to pay the correct wage.

    No fucking idea really probably have some change, you need a worker having a hard time finding someone to do it because they say not enough money then you would need to increase the wage offered, obviously you need a role filled or you would do it yourself. I'm supposed to offer $19 ish an hour but
    I pay $23 an hour because I know I can get people easy at that wage and it keeps people working for me, nothing worse than having to constantly train a new person.

    No, I said locales not white aussies, race didn't even come into it. I don't know why they take lower wages Crni. Like I said it could be for a combination of reason. They don't know, they are family, they know they can get the job for less and still make money for the family overseas. The fact is a large majority do the work below minimal wage.

    https://www.business-humanrights.or...ant-workers-underpaid-unable-to-recover-wages


    Of course lots of information is missing here, I'm not doing some census on why you no longer work at a servo after indians took over the lease. Honestly what do you want from me? I'm not a human census? all I know is locales worked at servos and now they don't they are now mostly on 457 or student visas.


    Well I'm in the camp that if you can't speak the native language you shouldn't be here or even taking up low skilled jobs if they can be done via the local people.

    Let me ask you this one question.

    When you think it's the employer or corporation for mostly offering the low wages you think white people right? I know you probably won't admit to that but I'm sure I am right even if you deny it. What if I was to say that it's more common in immigrant owned businesses.

    No idea, like I said before it depends if they can find people to work that job at that wage.
     
    Last edited: May 1, 2020
  3. Crni Vuk

    Crni Vuk M4A3 Oldfag oTO Orderite

    Nov 25, 2008
    Sure. Why should you care. It's just your fellow citizen that has to deal with the conditions.

    So you do not care about anyone here, you just care about immigrants less, then?

    Seriously, what has working rights and worker conditions to do with >commie things<? You can even find conservatives that fight for better working conditions. There are leftist positions and then there are bi-partisan positions.

    Uhm, yes I do, because in most countries the higher positions are held by the native population which is only logic. It has nothing to do with "racism" if that's what you're thinking.

    The Point I am trying to make here is that the forces driving wage reductions for blue-collar workers go far beyond immigration.

    Also I don't want anything from you, we're just having a discussion in a topic that I created.

    I do not know either why you're here if you don't care and see no point in a discussion.
     
  4. Crni Vuk

    Crni Vuk M4A3 Oldfag oTO Orderite

    Nov 25, 2008
     
  5. TorontoReign

    TorontoReign Happy Family Staff Member Moderator

    Apr 1, 2005
     
    • [Rad] [Rad] x 1
  6. Crni Vuk

    Crni Vuk M4A3 Oldfag oTO Orderite

    Nov 25, 2008
     
  7. TorontoReign

    TorontoReign Happy Family Staff Member Moderator

    Apr 1, 2005
    I saw some cheap Mexican labor there.

    I like how the robot guy dodged those questions.

    Yeah, in the Pipelining industry there is tons of cheap Mexican labor with a lot of white guys in charge of them.
     
    • [Rad] [Rad] x 1
  8. Crni Vuk

    Crni Vuk M4A3 Oldfag oTO Orderite

    Nov 25, 2008
    That's the point and what actually worries me about this new automation to be honest. I thought what it might lead to is a lot of people loosing their jobs and in certain sectors that might very well be the case. But I think the far bigger danger is lowering wages for the masses. Where you might have needed 5 skilled workers before, you might now end up with 2 skilled workers and 3 low wage workers either getting orders by a machine or supplying a machine. And instead of actually looking at the effects of automation on the economy and what it does to the job market - which isn't a new thing either, there will be simply more tensions and blame going around.
     
  9. TorontoReign

    TorontoReign Happy Family Staff Member Moderator

    Apr 1, 2005
    Yeah but you heard the actual worker talk about how much work it was to get that machine running. He was saying we don't work on big walls like that too much anyway. Anytime you need small jobs you will need man power. A lot of these guys will go into private construction for themselves when they lose their jobs. They have the experience and that is what counts. Not everyone can afford 100,000 dollar robots or however much they will be.
     
  10. Crni Vuk

    Crni Vuk M4A3 Oldfag oTO Orderite

    Nov 25, 2008
    Sure, for now. But there is very huge incentive to push for more efficiency here. And we're looking here at only one possible way of doing it trough a brick laying robot which will also be improved up on - as the video says some surveys, if they are to believed claim that up to 51% of current jobs could be automated, I mean even if we just assume half of those numbers to be true it would have devastating effects on the economy and job market as a whole. Look at what is happening now where between 10 or 15% of the work foce might be forced to stay at home for a couple of weeks and it's already expected to lead into a recession like never seen before. And we have yet not even talked about technologies where you can print whole houses and other ways of making construction work more efficient where they build constructions in mere weeks rather than months trough new methods. And this will be even more of an issue in other industries where humans could be replaced by machines entirely, like warehouses or driving.

    The general trend for the past decades has been to lower the cost and need of people. They can make up between 30 and 40% of a business total cost. And this will create a lot of pressure on the job market. Even if the previous workers decide to look for private construction there still has to be a sort of demand for it and if you have suddenly 20 or 30% more workers here, not counting people coming from other professions, while not increasing at the same time the demand, wages will inevitably go down. This isn't a zero-sum situation.
     
  11. TorontoReign

    TorontoReign Happy Family Staff Member Moderator

    Apr 1, 2005
    All of that fancy technology won't be used by most people even when it is widespread. You will never use that brick laying robot to build a family's house. For one not everything is made with brick. You will never use that slow ass robot to build a gas station. Because by the time you get it up and running the guys have already built half of it. It reminds me of this...



    I don't think cars are going to just drive everyone where they want anytime soon. Just like we aren't flying around in hover cars. There will still be people driving vehicles around. At least in normal parts of the world that don't contain giant skyscrapers. I am told I should expect Amazon to fly a package to my house and drop it off for me but nobody wants to fly to the sticks.

    You are not thinking about normal places. Have you ever seen a robot like that before? How many robots have you seen outside of a factory? A Roomba? Automation has augmented us in the right kinds of ways. Instead of forklifts at Amazon now they have a robot carting shit around. That is just one guy that is forklifting elsewhere.

    Yes, there are jobs being lost in the factories and eventually workers will be phased out of those jobs, but that does not mean humans will simply go sit in a room somewhere with nothing to do. They will find new jobs. Just like the MILK MAN.

    I think these kinds of issues really impact people that live in cities because I can say that none of that shit will ever greatly alter where I live while I am alive. People will still be owning their shitty flower shops and hair salons. The supermarket will still have a shitty selection of produce to choose from. The Pipeliners will still be rich due to it being the most lucrative job in this state. I will still need to talk to people at the Hospital to deal with my medical issues. I will still need to call plumbers, handymen, electricians, to do the work that I cannot.

    People that want to work in one job that is inherently unstable should think of working somewhere else before a robot does replace them. I'm not sure if that addressed everything you said but we talked about this before as well. This is not a real issue to worry about. The issue is people don't want to learn skills that can really last them through this whole mess. We are dealing with Gen X/Boomers that do not want to get another job so they fear the MACHINE replacing them.

    The thing is Millenials and Zoomers aren't working those jobs Crni. Surely you see where I am going with this? The people that need to worry about this will be fucking dead.

    SOURCES:

    No contractor I know could afford enough hands to even run that robot. If they could they would just hire more hands.

    People that forklift are people that can learn something else because that is the easiest job in the world. A retard can do it. So the retard should go learn how to run a bulldozer or something.


     
    Last edited: May 3, 2020
  12. Crni Vuk

    Crni Vuk M4A3 Oldfag oTO Orderite

    Nov 25, 2008
    I think you're completely underestimating the possible effect of all the automation, because robots just make a small portion of it. We're not only talking about robots laying bricks here.

    It is also not an entirely new development because what I describe is merely another progression in efficiency and more importantly productivity but there are few important differences which should make us think.

    We're talking about automation in operations which for now require highly skilled labour but could be done in the near future by machines not necessarily faster but a lot cheaper and more reliably. We're also talking about software being capable to even do programming, artificial intelligence becoming main stream. The moment you actually have a software that can take orders for you booking a table in a restaurant? And you don't even notice that the 'thing' on the other side is a software?

    That alone will make many jobs unnecessary. Then you have also the effects of digitalisation I quote (...)With its ability to cut costs and timescales, digitalisation is the answer to many supply chain pain points. What is different this time around is that we see fewer and fewer new jobs being created trough innovation over the past. And that will become sooner or later an issue we have to deal with.

    This becomes evident when you look at the automation of the automobile industry some 70 years ago the revenue they generated and the number of people they employed and compare it with digital companies like Apple, Microsoft, Google and the like.

    Kurzgesagt made a pretty well researched video about it.




    If you put all of this together then you're looking at a massive disruption of the labour market. Yes you're right machines will not offer the same speed in every industry like human workers, but to use your analogy what does it matter if the gas station takes now 20% more time to build with machines if it costs you 90% less to do it because you're saving on human labour? Again in many business people can make up 40% of the overall costs. That is a huge incentive to get rid of humans as a factor if you can.

    Again my estimation is the largest effect all of this will have is on wages which have been decreasing consistently over the last 20-30 years as operating procedure have become more efficient and the need for actual human labour less needed.

    That's because you're thinking about this only from the micro economic side and not the macro economic effects it will have. Obviously not all areas will be effected at the same time and in the same way. But it will have an effect on the economy as a whole and thus the country as a whole.

    For example, in how taxes are generated and how states pay for their infrastructure or the purchasing power of the average citizen and so on.

    If let us say a large urban area like New York gets hit with 40% unemployment rate, this will have effects on the rest of the country as well. It is what economists call ripple effects. Like as if you would throw a large stone in a body of water and the waves moving away from the center. And then you have also the issue of multipliers - for example money has the tendency to be concentrated into even larger piles of money.

    Poor states and cities become poorer while rich states and cities become richer.

    Everyone will be affected by this one way or another. Like the housing crisis for example or the economic crisis from 2008. Again not everyone will be hit the same way but a large number of people will feel the effects, not just "Millenials " or "Zoomers" - which don't exist anyway, those are made up definitions that have no weight.

    I am a 100% positive that there are even in your area positions that can be made either more efficient and/or done by a machine. Not every company will do it. Not every profession will see it at the same speed. But let me guess, I am sure you have at least one 'bigger' employer in your area? Maybe a large transport company? Or some sort of warehouse?

    I am also sure you have large groceries in your area which are getting supplied and so on. Imagine what it would mean for your area if only 20% or 25% of those contractors would get rid of their workers one way or another.

    Those 25% would now seek employment in other areas, maybe in yours as well and thus increasing the overall pressure on the job market resulting in decreasing wages. Not to mention the people which are now moving from larger urban areas into yours in hope of finding now job opportunities. A lot of contractors might also simply perish if they can not keep up with those contractors that can modernize and offer cheaper solutions.

    Like said earlier, ripple effects. What happens in one area, if large enough, will have effects in others. I mean even if the clocks move a bit "slower" in more rural areas, you're not living in the 16th century anymore just because you're living in Oklahoma rather than San Fran Cisco, Washington or New York.

    That's a somewhat simplified view on the issue in my opinion but it is a fair Assessment. If your job is outsourced/automated/not-needed anymore, just move to another profession. And I am sure a lot of people will do this.

    However the labour market is not a zero-sum situation. If you have 100.000 people operating fork lifts and they all now loose their jobs because a robot can do it faster, better and cheaper but there are only 20.000 open positions for operating a bulldozer - assuming there isn't a robot that can't operate the bulldozer as well - what are the other 80.000 people supposed to do even if they are not certified operators for bulldozers?

    Not to mention that you can not take so easily a 55 year old fork lift operator, truck driver or ware house worker and simply throw them into another profession competing with all the 20-25 year olds out there seeking the same position.

    Imagine if you would loose your job tomorrow - for what ever reason - and there would be no professions for you left in your area and I would simply tell you, well then go to a university and become an engineer in programming artificial intelligence because this is right now a growing market. Would this seem feasible to you?
     
    Last edited: May 4, 2020
  13. TorontoReign

    TorontoReign Happy Family Staff Member Moderator

    Apr 1, 2005
    You posted that video before. Yes it was a simple interpretation because long winded debates about shit we went over a few months ago begins to make me feel like I am reliving the same debate over again. We are by the way.

    I understand there will be other robots besides the brick laying one. I know that the robots will enter every aspect of manufacturing. I am simply saying that people will need to learn to work with computers because that is where all the jobs have been going for over twenty years. Your doom and gloom scenario must be met with a counter balance which is "Life will go on". My Dad told me this twenty years ago. He ran a car lot. He knew that times were changing and his generation would be fucked.

    Your economic meltdown won't happen because by then all of the drones will be on UBI like you want them to be.
     
  14. Crni Vuk

    Crni Vuk M4A3 Oldfag oTO Orderite

    Nov 25, 2008

    I still see no harm in having discussions.


    Which won't be possible for everyone. We're also looking at software which is capable of actually working with computers (in other words, doing programming). New jobs we're talking about will require a degree of skills that's simply not achievable for the majority of people out there either because it is not part of their skill set or they simply don't have the funds to visit a university for it. I mean getting a high quality education is already incredibly expensive. So even if that is where all the jobs will be a hell of a lot of people will be left at the road side.


    Yes of course things "go on". Just as how they do in the pandemic now. Just as how they did during WW2. Or it did with the crash in the 1920s. Or during the Mongol invasion of Europe 700 years ago.

    We're talking about a transition here the society in 20-30 years will be different from the society we have now just as how what we have today is different from the society in the 1950s. The question that I am asking my self is how smooth or how rough this transition will be. Certain events have simply a higher disruptive effect on a society then others. Like the housing bubble for example. If a large number of people loose their homes and incomes, you just want to tell them, oh hey! It's not all doom and gloom! Live is going on!

    Are we as a society prepared for this transition or are we not? That's the point.

    What ever if there will be an UBI or not remains to be seen. It's not part of the discussion. I would like to see an UBI at some point but what ever if society will actually go in that direction? Who knows.
     
  15. TorontoReign

    TorontoReign Happy Family Staff Member Moderator

    Apr 1, 2005
    UBI is part of the discussion. It's part of your mindset. If you see no harm in wasting our time repeating things we both already know then you should at least acknowledge that is where things are going in that kind of world. These people left on the road side are no different than you right now. How are you getting by? How am I getting by? The government. That is how they will get by. At the very worst you will finally see white people back to working immigrant jobs.

    I know the world you are envisioning. It's another science fiction story that has been pumped into our heads for decades. Robots taking over! No jobs for the working man! Well if the working man is finally put out of work maybe he should start farming so he can feed his family. Maybe people should leave those concrete jungles and go back to the real world. Maybe people can start taking care of their community again. Looking after one another. Working together. This will involve getting off the computer and going outside so I know some people might have a hard time, but if it is a big enough problem that generation will learn some important lessons and hopefully pass them on to future generations, so that people won't be so afraid of not being able to work. Maybe the people will be able to do more than one thing and know how to survive if the worst happens. People used to be like that. Self sufficient.

    I know a bunch of guys that can survive no matter what fancy robot you build to take whatever job they might be working at the time. People like that will survive. If the government does not provide for those that can no longer find a job due to robots running the world then they will start sucking dick or selling crack or stealing to survive. I'm not sure what you hope to learn by asking these questions besides someone just shaking their head yes and saying "Robots bad" over and over.

    I mean Crni I know not everyone is going to learn to program. Should I need to state that? Robots won't be working retail. There is your gimme answer. People will shop online but you always need brick and mortar stores. Teenagers might need to give up their summer jobs to people that need to actually earn a living. More truck drivers. More trade schools. I mean this is simple shit Crni. People will need to take jobs that don't require 4 year degrees.
     
    Last edited: May 4, 2020
  16. Crni Vuk

    Crni Vuk M4A3 Oldfag oTO Orderite

    Nov 25, 2008
    I get the feeling you're still making two mistakes here. You're thinking about the macro-economic effects and you're looking at it mostly from an anecdotal point of view / personal experience.

    I didn't deny any of your comments and sentient here. What you say will be true for many individuals out there. But not everyone. The majority of people will face very difficult times if nothing is to be done. And there is no telling what disruptive effect this will have on society and the democratic states - not very good, when I am looking at how things are already right now with the lock down and we haven't even hit a recession yet.

    And again, I am right now neither talking nor thinking about the UBI here. There can be different solutions to the issue. For example massive investments in education - making it easier for people to get in. Lowering of work hours in certain industries where it's possible, so more people can be employed. And I am sure there are many other ideas out there that have nothing to do with the UBI.
     
  17. TorontoReign

    TorontoReign Happy Family Staff Member Moderator

    Apr 1, 2005
    I'm going about it the way I see fit due to actually knowing about the things I am talking about. Now if I were you I could go and type in some search and bring up some links and just say I think this is what will happen and it would fly over well with you I bet, but actually talking about the way I think things will go down based upon knowing people that work those kinds of jobs my whole life...look if you want to talk to me you are going to hear some anecdotes. Mkkkay? That is called normal conversation.

    Which is more valid? Your links from some other fag that made a video or me talking about the kind of fucking people that work these jobs? I know more about the kind of work those guys are doing than you do. I know guys that do that work as well. I know people that work in factories. I know how smart they are. I know how much money they make. I know what other jobs they worked. You see how that works? I'm not trying to prove anything to you. I know you are terminally fixated with ROBOT COMMIE GLOBAL WARMING until you are blue in the face. I'm telling you stories and information about real people because that shit matters and your numbers are bullshit because we should be under water right now and Hillary should be in office.
     
  18. Crni Vuk

    Crni Vuk M4A3 Oldfag oTO Orderite

    Nov 25, 2008

    I have absolutely no problem with anecdotes as long as we are ... recognizing that they are just that.

    I will remind you to that fact the next time you post something from Sargon or some other source that you see as credible.
     
  19. TorontoReign

    TorontoReign Happy Family Staff Member Moderator

    Apr 1, 2005
    I never said Sargon was credible. I said I agreed with a few of the videos I posted of his. As usual that whole thing was just you trying to be right. That is why you bring up anecdotal information btw. You are just trying to win debates on the internet instead of having actual conversations like a normal human being.

    :roll:
     
  20. Crni Vuk

    Crni Vuk M4A3 Oldfag oTO Orderite

    Nov 25, 2008
    So when I say approximately 50% of the jobs eventually being automated having a huge effect on the economy means that this is suddenly null and void because ... Toront has experience and can talk for 300+ Million people? Probably even more because the automation takes also place outside the US. I also have 'my' experience, particularly as I have spend years in education. But that doesn't have to necessarily mean much.

    Those are two completely different talking points. Has nothing to do with me being "right" or "wrong". I don't know why you think that. I mean are people not hit right now by the pandemic economically? Would a recession not lead eventually to more people facing dire situations? Maybe causing more homelessness, people visiting food banks and loosing jobs and who knows what else?

    I really do not understand where you see a conflict between us two here.