Do you think a Nuclear war can actually happen?

Sn1p3r187

Carolinian Shaolin Monk
During these days and times, we don't have to fear the Cold War scale global nuclear war. I don't think the U.S, Russia, or China is that suicidal to try to murder us all with nuclear weapons. If anything I see a limited nuclear exchange happening in the future say between India and Pakistan, or Israel and other Middle Eastern countries. But I'd hope they'd learn quickly from their mistakes and try to rebuild within a 30 year timespan. Like the movie Akira. World War III happened but the world quickly recovered. Tokyo became Neo-Tokyo, the U.S and the Soviet Union were still apparently alive and kicking. Now these days I can say the only nuclear exchange that could happen would be a limited one or an accidental one like in the case of Wasteland. Or maybe aliens or some shit shows up like crazy Androids that want to kill us all may make that type of nuclear exchange happen. What do you guys think?
 
I also think that maybe the U.S government would survive. Not the Enclave stuff but they'd make their announcement that we're still a nation no matter what and they'd make it clear to keep the U.S under control from the disaster. Provide relief, give food and water, take care of raiders and bandits, and help in rebuilding cities. kinda like Jericho if anyone's ever seen that show.
 
I think a Nuclear war is already going on, and we are all dieing of cancer.


P.S. Only morons will gather enough money to stage a colonization of Mars, cause they control all the oil and will probably get sick of all us 20 something on the internet ruining their hate parade.


Here's looking to the future
 
It is actually very mathematical, a game of logic if you so will.

It is as simple as that. As long as there are nuclear weapons available the chance of nuclear war is very real. Kinda obvious. It is a little like with nuclear reactors. The chance of one reactor to blow up is extremly small. And yet, there was Tschernobyle and Fukushima, Harrisburg/Three Mile Island.

How big is the chance for nuclear war though? That is a different question. For now? Relatively small. Definitely much smaller compared to the cold war. But now expand it to 100 or even 1000 years and the chances for a nuclear exchange between one or even several nations becomes suddenly a lot more probable, considering the very violent human nature.

Stephen Hawking was talking about it a few times.
 
They will need something to occupy their time when they run out of brown people to bomb.
 
I'd add North Korea to the list. Right now their nuclear arsenal is pathetic, consisting of a few uranium based warheads which doesn't pose serious threat, but in a span of 10-20 years this would be changed. Their nuclear program is going on fast and their leader surely is lunatic enough to press the red button.
 
I doubt nations will send nuclear bombs to each others.
Although, accidents like Fukushima/Tchernobyl can and will happen.
Some of them could be the result of sabotage.
 
Yeah, I always wonder if Chernobyl was the result of a sabotage commited by US Agents (or even Russian Anti-Communists).
 
Doubtfull. It was probably mainly caused by incompetence and ignorance. The errors of Chernobyl already started with the construction years before the accident when the party decided to do a Mickey Mouse job with the plant.
 
I find nuclear war to be sortof self prophetic, in the sense that we humans like a narrative, and we have now introduced nukes to our narrative. We are very aware of all possible outcomes, and have added them to our narrative as well. Like India and Pakistan, they have made it clear that land invasions between the two might result in a nuclear exchange. PRC has made similar "promises" to ROC, suggesting that at least portions of their arsenal is "meant for" them.
The US and Russia both have thousands of warheads. Why thousands? Why not ONE BIG nuke, or something, if we're purely talking about a deterrant? Cus it's obviously not just a deterrant, but one that is not only to be applied tactically, but applied potentially en masse. We have that in our narrative as well, "Mutually Assured Destruction", the "nuclear clock", all that stuff.

To once-and-for-all destroy all nuclear arsenals of the world, I see as not only hugely unlikely (how will anybody even monitor that the other parties are upholding their part of the deal!? These are physical objects, they can be rebuilt, hidden, etc.) but a tremendous narrative anticlimax. Humans are very into death and annihilation (albeit all to the right time and place, and such. Ideally we want to periodically vanquish evil, and save the innocent)

Sooner or later, we're gonna deem it "time" to unleash the nukes. If not only for narrative sake.

(By "narrative" I mean how a disgruntlement, a movement, a "wave" of anger rarely, if ever, just dissipates. People are unwilling to build something up, a sequence of dramatic events, just to die it down again. Once a ball rolls, it will complete the tumble, all the way. A lot of politics function this way, things begin small, then either simmer on - yet never quite extinguishing - or they increase exponensially, and explode in usually all out war, or some other form of collapse of social tension. What you can't do, is to simply tell tension to go away.)
 
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Nuclear Weapons are the only reason that at all justifies internet surveillance,


Nuclear Weapons are also the only reason WW3 did not happen.


Nuclear power is a game changer, and my brain faded out cause fuck.
 
Yes. For a while, at least to me, the most likely nuke war would be a one between Pakistan and India. Now, if international troops mostly leave Afghanistan during this year, nobody really knows what will happen there after that. If Taliban streams in and takes over the whole place, then turns and floods into Pakistan. Then there's a conflict with India and pretty soon nukes start flying. India has a population of about 1,26 billion so if they were to lose, say, 1-5 million in a nuke war, it wouldn't be a biggie to them.
 
Yes. For a while, at least to me, the most likely nuke war would be a one between Pakistan and India. Now, if international troops mostly leave Afghanistan during this year, nobody really knows what will happen there after that. If Taliban streams in and takes over the whole place, then turns and floods into Pakistan. Then there's a conflict with India and pretty soon nukes start flying. India has a population of about 1,26 billion so if they were to lose, say, 1-5 million in a nuke war, it wouldn't be a biggie to them.
Well do you think it could ever go global like how close we were in the Cuban Missile Crisis? I mean in the Fallout timeline a limited nuclear war was a stepping stone to a global one. So if you apply that here a limited exchange could escalate if tensions rise between the U.S, Russia, or China.
 
Many events similar to the Cuban Missile Crisis have happened since, just not close to the US border due to ICBM technology.

Yeah there is a possibility. There will always be a possibility unless technology super-cedes the threat, or somehow everyone decided to destroy their arsenals "Not going to happen and a horrible idea for Western Europe, South-East-Asian, India, and Africa."


Oh yeah, and that mess called the Middle-East would have bone fields the size of the Osfront stacked around the walls of Damascus and Tel-Aviv.
 
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Many events similar to the Cuban Missile Crisis have happened since, just not close to the US border due to ICBM technology.

Yeah there is a possibility. There will always be a possibility unless technology super-cedes the threat, or somehow everyone decided to destroy their arsenals "Not going to happen and a horrible idea for Western Europe, South-East-Asian, India, and Africa."


Oh yeah, and that mess called the Middle-East would have bone fields the size of the Osfront stacked around the walls of Damascus and Tel-Aviv.
Technology supersedes the threat? Define this. I've never this term before.
 
So I can guess from this that the technology to stop a nuclear attack from happening would supersede the need to use them as a deterrent to begin with considering they'd be shot down before they could hit or be disabled before they could blow. Either that or newer more destructive but cleaner weapons come along like orbital guns, satellite lasers, vacuum bombs.
 
Well, yes and no. If a nation like the US or Russia launched their entire arsenal, I doubt every one of them could be shot down. One of them would have to land somewhere.

People are also forgetting that remote detonation is a thing. Sneak a bomb into a city on a diesel truck or similar vehicle, have those agents leave the city, remotely detonate the bomb.

Or, like you said, create orbital nuclear weapons platforms. But attaching nuclear weapons to an orbital platform is very stupid. Tactically I mean, not morally (though it's stupid morally also). It is much more easier, simple, and cheap to simply use the kinetic bombardment method. Programs to create these weapons have been in effect since the seventies (as far as official documents go, anyways. For all we know they could have been thinking this up since the 50's, or hell maybe even in the 40's as they were looking for ways to create super-weapons). NASA was working, in effect with a US arms corporation (either that or a US research department, I forgot) on a weapon like this in the 80's. But they're idea was much different than previous US Kinetic Bombardment or Soviet programs. You'd imagine at least a satellite-sized machine for this, right? While the US (NASA and whoever else) were working on one that would be the size of a gun. Very small, and very hard to hit/shoot and knock out of orbit. Also very cheap to make, and it's small size means that the US could effectively employ millions of them. Anyways it was the size of a pretty big gun (like Fallout's minigun, only three times that size), and the idea was to employ Gauss weaponry techniques, and mix them with kinetic bombardment techniques. This means, you'd have this small (but still big when compared to the size of a human) machine, that was basically a massive Gauss rifle. It would then shoot a tiny hunk of metal shaped like a bullet (but not actually a bullet. No gunpowder or anything, but a hunk of steel or possibly a cheaper, more lightweight and cost effective metal), propelling it at very, very fast speeds. It would then enter into orbit, and employ the techniques of kinetic bombardment, and from there, a tiny bullet just destroyed a small city (of about a million people), or a large part of a very large city (like Manhattan, Brooklyn, or Bronx of New York), and that's if it only shot one. The weapon was intended to have a rapid fire automation. If somehow, a weapon was made that could accurately target such a small thing moving as very fast rates (faster than any of our modern day military jet airplanes move, anyways), they would not cause a huge explosion in the sky (meaning no radioactive Fallout or geological problems who whatever nation is was shot down over), and the US would not lose millions and millions of dollars on a nuclear warhead. All they lost was a little hunk of metal. Whatever weapon that could be made to reflect this weapon, would also have to be able to do it several times in a matter of only a few seconds if the orbital weapon fired more than one. The US abandoned this plan and funded the money (which made up a large portion of NASA's research budget during the 80's. That's probably why NASA wasn't nearly as active during the 80's as they were during the 70's and 60's. I think the US funneled the money into developing our modern day stealth bomber, a newer version of the M Abrams tank, among other things...

Supposedly, this is just a rumor, but supposedly the US military is trying to restart Reagan's Star Wars program. But instead of the laser being used to destroy nuclear missiles, the laser would just be a weapon in itself. Really that's about as far as the rumor goes, so like I said it's probably bullshit but you never know.
 
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It probably is, because a laser would require an incredible amount of energy to have the same effect like a nuclear weapon or to do some substantial damage on the surface, microwaves might be a better candidate or simply to throw a big rock at the area, you know like some asteroid, those could be potentialy even more devastating compared to any nuclear warhead we have right now. I mean its all relativity. You would have to find a way to give the laser the same energy that is released with a nuclear explosion. It would require either an incredible energy source or an incredibly large laser. Both is not really feasible right now. But who knows? Maybe in 100 years.

The Star Wars program by Regan was a billion dollar fun house, nothing more, nothing less. The only thing it proved was that it scares the enemy and that it is extremely easy to undermine it. For example Nuclear warheads can be shielded from lasers, they are rather poor when it comes to reflective surfaces so you would again need an incredible amount of energy and you can use decoys against rockets, I don't remember the numbers right now, but the Soviets could have easily used several decoys per warhead, this means that you require a hell lot of rockets to just neutralize one warhead. If you consider that both, the US and the Soviets had at some point eventually 10 thousands of ICBMs ready you would have eventually required 100 000 of rockets in the atmosphere. If not more.

In other words. It was just another arms race that costed billions of dollars and jeopardized the safety of the world.
 
^^Huh I see your point there Crni Vuk. But as one said we can never get rid of nuclear weapons. As for if we're stupid enough to use them to wipe out our civilization, who knows. Even then we won't be entirely dead, I see a post-nuclear world as being more like The Hunger Games. Society survives but it might be a tyrannical dictatorship which the U.S could turn into after a global nuclear war like that. They'd bring down the hammer to instill justice and order in places that quickly fall out of order. Maybe as a way to keep raiding and looting out of the picture, but after situations like that the U.S would still be a wasteland there'd be many deserts in the U.S in areas that were formerly forested. I at least think the East Coast has a better chance of keeping wildlife and forest alive since we have too many of em, and possibly the Northwest and Midwest, but anything east of Tennessee might as well be a deserted wasteland. Of course Fallout's idea of Post-nuclear society intrigues me but I see things as being more like Hunger Games, Wasteland, or Akira possibly with there still being cities or new cities that are alive and kicking but relatively poor.
 
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