Crni Vuk said:
I am far from being a "professional" regarding the history of the US. But yes. Off the top of my head the Confederate had at least 2 times a reasonable chance of "wining" though before that one would have to know what a "win" in the eyes of the confederate meant. Though I am not going to discuss that here to much in detail. - it is rather complex from what I can read.
That depends on your definition of "winning" a war. If you define it as "Destroying, conquering, or otherwise militarily defeating your opponent" then no, the Confederacy never had a chance of winning. They had neither the manpower nor economy to do that. The Confederate's goal was not to destroy the Union, it was to hold them off long enough that they'd give up and recognize them as a separate country - so if you describe "winning" a war as "Not being completely conquered by invading forces" then yes, they could have won.
My comment about the Confederate's not being able to "Win" the war meant only that they could never actually "defeat" the North, they could only hope to continue the fighting long enough that the North would decide the whole thing wasn't worth it and allow them to secede.
I am just naming the target of the Confederate state to be a "independent" nation (they had their own president after all). And as such it hoped eventually for recognition of their status (by France, Britain etc.) and as such a hope for aid and support. They had already here plans and it was only one key victory on the battlefield away to get those acceptance and eventually support. Particularly Britain had a very high interest in two separate states (North and South). A strong and united US would have meant a dangerous force for the British foreign policy. Not to mention to the cheap supplies of cotton.
France and Britain both eventually started to distance themselves from the Confederacy once the Union started to make a bigger issue out of slavery. Had the Confederate's gained Europe's support then, yes, they had a chance of "winning".
The other part is Lincolns reelection. There is a debate about it from a historical point of view if Lincolns defeat for presidency would have eventually lead to negotiations and the end of the war which was at that point very unpopular because of the high loses in men. Principally McClellan Lincolns competition for the presidency was ready to bring an end to the war. Even Lincoln didn't believed in his victory because.
Yes, and had Lincoln been assassinated earlier or if McClellan had won then the South would have been able to survive without being re-absorbed into the Union, although for semantic reasons I stated above I still hardly consider this a "victory" in the military sense of the term.
But as said. That is just what I know off the top of my head. And to get deeper in detail would probably explode the topic. Not to mention the situation of the 18 century cant be compared with the situation today. The south and north have been basically two completely different cultures. With the South seeing themself as the true holders of the Victorian era and the North with the heavy industrialisation. A conflict was just a matter of time.
It was cultural differences and ideological differences that caused the war, and while the cultural differences might be a thing of the past the ideological differences among American citizenry is still very much relevant today. Like I said, until the problems left over from America's foundations are completely resolved there will be war. Another Civil War in America (or revolution if you prefer) is only a matter of time.
I'm not saying that this is relevant to other places such as Europe, but Americans
need their guns in order to prevent the Feds from becoming to powerful. There
will come a time in the future in which the Federalists and Anti-Federalists will bear arms against each other, it's only a matter of time (especially with all that's been going on recently). America right now is a barrel of gunpowder with the fuse slowly burning.