NFL 2009

[Cimmerian Nights]

Also, looks like the breakdown of the Vikes might be starting. Or at least, this is a really bad game for the Vikes. Can't get much done on either running or passing.

Not quite time to panic, they are in a comfortable place, they seem pretty laid back, with things in control. It's not like they're the Cowboys, or *gulp* the Steelers...


I'm intrigued by the contrast in playoff preparation of the two unbeatens.
-Indy as usual, is winding down with a huge lead. They'll downshift and rest the starters. Which more often than not has proven to be disastrous when inferior yet hot teams with all kinds of momentum roll right over the (Pitt, SD, NEP). It's the conservative route, with designs towards the SB, but when you do this and lose in the first round so many times, you have to question this strategy. It's only worked for the Colts once. Injuries can happen anytime, anywhere, but it's like the Colts playing scared - and this move almost always bites them in the ass. They really have no excuses, because everything is playing out optimally for them. I respect that they dismiss the undefeated route, but one more 1st round exit after the bye, at home, plenty of rest and recuperation. What can I say that I didn't already about the Colts in the playoffs *chortle chortle*
-Then you have the Saints who seem committed to pulling out all the stops regardless of how much it burns them out to win out. Payton actually says he wants to run the table, Bush says a the pro-bowl, an MVP and a SB are inevitability for him. Better be careful writing checks your ass can't cash. Saints seem to play down to their competition a lot - needed lucky comebacks against 'Skins, Jets, Rams, what other shitty team am I forgetting. You can't walk the tightrope like that forever, sooner or later they're going to fall, hard. I think they'd be better off if they did, just to not have that burden to bear heading into the playoffs.
There's two kinds of 18-1s, and you don't want the Pat's kind.

Two totally differing approaches. I wonder if either one can pull it off though. All you need is one team like the Chargers or Philly that really come together in the playoffs hot like, to make you look like a jackass.

 

[TwinkieGorilla]

re: Favre

Sander i'm guessing you haven't watched many Vikings games this year? again...i'd LOVE to agree with you and talk as much shit as possible, but it's just not true. when he throws down the field, which he does as much as any other QB, it's always fucking on point.

also: fuck yeah, Cards! in Phoenix with my girlfriend and we loved the fuck out of that game last night!

will be on a plane for most of the game tonight and to be honest i'm actually quite glad. Pack's pretty much done for if we lose this one tonight.

 

[Sander]

re: Favre

Sander i'm guessing you haven't watched many Vikings games this year? again...i'd LOVE to agree with you and talk as much shit as possible, but it's just not true. when he throws down the field, which he does as much as any other QB, it's always fucking on point.

It wasn't last night.

Really, though, I think last night showed why he works in all those other games: his receivers are constantly beating the coverage and getting open. Once they don't get open quick and you get some pressure on him, Favre falters. This is obvious, though, and true for any QB to some extent.

The stats also show this, though: he has a higher completion rate than anyone except Drew Brees, but has a lower average per attempt than any of the top QBs, even less than McNabb who has a much lower completion percentage.

 

[UniversalWolf]

Really, though, I think last night showed why he works in all those other games: his receivers are constantly beating the coverage and getting open.

Nope.

The stats also show this, though: he has a higher completion rate than anyone except Drew Brees, but has a lower average per attempt than any of the top QBs

That's the effect of running Chilly's dink-and-dunk offense - the same dink-and-dunk offense he brought over from his last job as Andy Reid's O-coordinator in Philly (where McNabb is QB). It's also an effect of not having great receviers.

Last night was Favre's first flat game of the season, but really the Vikings simply got slapped. The Cards ran successfully against the Williams Wall and held ADP to under 20 yards. They also exposed Minnesota's mediocre pass blocking and secondary.

Not quite time to panic...

Oh no, it's very much time to panic!

The Vikes have had so many good seasons end in disappointment they're just waiting for it to happen again. The fans were already nervous before last night, I assure you.

What they're really dreading is having to play Green Bay again in the playoffs.

I've noticed that since MVP discussions have begun, Philip Rivers is getting left out again. If you look at his stats they're among the best in the league. Personally, though, I'd vote for Brees. He has more TDs and fewer INTs than Manning. The Saints are going to be my fallback bandwagon team should the Packers be eliminated.

 

[Cimmerian Nights]

I've noticed that since MVP discussions have begun, Philip Rivers is getting left out again. If you look at his stats they're among the best in the league. Personally, though, I'd vote for Brees. He has more TDs and fewer INTs than Manning.

He'll probably get snubbed for the Pro-Bowl again too, but don't feel bad for Rivers, he'll probably take it deeper into the playoffs than those other stiffs.

The Saints are going to be my fallback bandwagon team should the Packers be eliminated.

Frontrunner.
I have a strict policy on adopted post-season bandwagon teams in that I limit it to only previous SB winners. I liken it to an exclusive club, so I'm all for the Steelers, Giants, Redskins, Packers etc. I find it distasteful to sully the likes of the '72 Dolphins and '85 Bears with the company of riff-raff like the Saints (it's bad enough the Bucs made it in).
In a situation where there isn't one, I'd settle for a pre-merger NFL champion like the Eagles. Which would take precedent over just a pre-merger AFL championship winner.
I'm not saying this makes any sense.

I also feel some tri-state obligation to the Giants, but I have a love/hate thing after having them shoved down my throat growing up. I hate when they win, but I start rooting for things when they go to shit. I love that old screaming red-faced agro fucking insane Tom Coughlin. That's entertainment. I see him want to bring it out, but he's held it back pretty well the last few years.

That's the effect of running Chilly's dink-and-dunk offense - the same dink-and-dunk offense he brought over from his last job as Andy Reid's O-coordinator in Philly (where McNabb is QB). It's also an effect of not having great receviers.

I don't really think dink-and-dunk and West Coast are necessarily synonymous. I'm not seeing Favre cock back and heave it to the heavens anymore, but I'm not seeing Chad Pennington either.

 

[TwinkieGorilla]

GO PACK GO, MUTHAFUCKAHS!!!


wtf up with penalties and turnovers?! jesus h.

 

[Cimmerian Nights]

Rodgers looked good too, kid is clutch. Flacco looked like shit in the 4th.

And those penalties are ridiculous, 50, 60 yard PI penalties (and some were pretty spotty). They should cap PIs out outside of the 2 min warning.


Nice stat from Gradkowski:
3 consecutive TDs, on the final 3 drives of the 4th QTR against the Steelers D.
JaMarcus had 2TDs in 9 games all year.


I hope nobody thinks that LaDanian Tomlinson passing Jim Brown on the all-time rushing list is any indication that he's a better runner.
He's not. Not by any stretch.
Brown did more in less time in shorter seasons. He has the highest career average and per game average than anyone in league history. He never missed a game. 9 pro bowls in 9 seasons.
Tomlinson couldn't hold is jock, he's not even close to being the best LT.
[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=H95tbtXBOIQ&feature=related[/youtube]

edit: I don't proofreeed

 

[Sander]

Rodgers looked good too, kid is clutch. Flacco looked like shit in the 4th.

And those penalties are ridiculous, 50, 60 yard PI penalties (and some were pretty spotty). They should cap PIs out outside of the 2 min warning.

That seems like a completely arbitrary rule.

And there's no other way of doing it. If players have a choice between giving up 20 certain yards by levelling a receiver or giving up the full 60 yardage, they'll take the 20 yards every time.

I hope nobody thinks that LaDanian Tomlinson passing Jim Brown on the all-time rushing list is any indication that he's a better runner.
He's not. Not by any stretch.
Brown did more in less time in shorter seasons. He has the highest career average and per game average than anyone in league history. He never missed a game. 9 pro bowls in 9 seasons.
Tomlinson couldn't hold is jock, he's not even close to being the best LT.
[youtube]http://www.nma-fallout.com/forum/posting.php[/youtube]

Youtube fail.

And yeah, he's no Jim Brown. Still, he's had a great career.

 

[Brother None]

LDT is a hall of fame RB, but he's not even close to Jim Brown. I think most of us know that. And watching him inevitably drag on his career on pointlessly will be sad.

I can't believe some of the pundits, calling him a goal-line weapon. Fuck you guys. Yeah, he scores a lot of TDs, that doesn't make him a goal-line weapon, a goal-line weapon is someone who converts a lot of goal-line looks. LDT doesn't convert a lot, he just gets a metric ton of them. Shit, these assholes wouldn't give up on him when he was obviously washed up to start this season, they're still clinging to their own self-propelled hype.

Pro Bowls don't count for shit vs All Pros, note. But Brown's got 8 of those as well, only missing '62. Also he's a Lacrosse HoFer, and pretty sure LDT'll never reach that.

Also, I never called Tomlinson LT. That moniker's taken. He's LDT.

 

[Sander]

LDT is a hall of fame RB, but he's not even close to Jim Brown. I think most of us know that. And watching him inevitably drag on his career on pointlessly will be sad.

I can't believe some of the pundits, calling him a goal-line weapon. Fuck you guys. Yeah, he scores a lot of TDs, that doesn't make him a goal-line weapon, a goal-line weapon is someone who converts a lot of goal-line looks. LDT doesn't convert a lot, he just gets a metric ton of them. Shit, these assholes wouldn't give up on him when he was obviously washed up to start this season, they're still clinging to their own self-propelled hype.

Pro Bowls don't count for shit vs All Pros, note. But Brown's got 8 of those as well, only missing '62. Also he's a Lacrosse HoFer, and pretty sure LDT'll never reach that.

Also, I never called Tomlinson LT. That moniker's taken. He's LDT.

LT is a legend.
[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qE3XqYrzylQ[/youtube]
Now I have to go watch that movie again. That has to be the quintessential sports movie.

 

[Brother None]

The MVP narrative is certainly narrowing. People don't seem to take Philip Rivers or Aaron Rodgers seriously even though those two obviously carry their teams on their backs and are having amazing seasons statistically (A-Rod gets sacked a lot, but he has more rushing yards than sackyardslost, and he's on pace to break Favre's top yardage season, Favre's top being 4413 in 95, while Rodgers is on pace to hit 4532).
Still, with Favre's non-performance this week and two unbeaten teams both of whom have seen their QB drag victories out with their nails, Brees and Manning have separated from the pack, Manning still leading it in my view. If Favre has another performance like this, it's a lock between Brees and Manning.

Interesting statistical fact: since the 2005 season, Favre has never thrown more INTs than TDs in the first 11 weeks, and has never thrown more TDs than INTs in the final 5 weeks. We'll see how a dome pans out for him, tho', it's obviously different from the Pack situation.

 

[Cimmerian Nights]

...since the 2005 season, Favre has never thrown more INTs than TDs in the first 11 weeks, and has never thrown more TDs than INTs in the final 5 weeks. We'll see how a dome pans out for him, tho', it's obviously different from the Pack situation.

He's got others to help with the heavy lifting now too.

I think Manning is the frontrunner by far, the 21 game win streak, all the 4th quarter comebacks, all with a tepid running game (though Indy's D never gets credit for anything, even though they make big plays).
I don't know, the MVP is so secondary, it's window dressing to the real prize.

I'd be more interested in the Heisman if it weren't such an underwhelming class.
But if Toby Gerhart doesn't win I'm playing the race card on anti-white HB bias. How about some love for Stanford too, huh?

 

[Sander]

The MVP narrative is certainly narrowing. People don't seem to take Philip Rivers or Aaron Rodgers seriously even though those two obviously carry their teams on their backs and are having amazing seasons statistically (A-Rod gets sacked a lot, but he has more rushing yards than sackyardslost, and he's on pace to break Favre's top yardage season, Favre's top being 4413 in 95, while Rodgers is on pace to hit 4532).

They seem to have fixed the problems after the Bucs game. I remember some writer, I think Peter King, claiming that that loss would either be remembered as the loss that killed this Packers team, or the loss that sparked a great playoff run. Seems like it's the latter.

Still, with Favre's non-performance this week and two unbeaten teams both of whom have seen their QB drag victories out with their nails, Brees and Manning have separated from the pack, Manning still leading it in my view. If Favre has another performance like this, it's a lock between Brees and Manning.

Probably the QB with the fewest losses will be the winner here. And if Manning gets some rest the next couple of games and Brees doesn't but continues to win games, it's definitely going to be Brees.

He's got others to help with the heavy lifting now too.

But when they don't show up, he's fucked. See: the Cardinals game. They stopped Purple Jesus, and then could focus on taking away the receivers, who couldn't get any separation. The Vikes' whole gameplan fell apart, and they really looked like they couldn't figure out what to do.

 

[Brother None]

Peter King

Speaking of whom, only one Buc and two Hawks in his all-decade team. Suck on that, Assman!

They seem to have fixed the problems after the Bucs game.

I wouldn't be so sure about that, at least about putting it that clear-cut. A lot of the gain is in their defense growing further into their new 3-4 format, which has been working out excellent for 'em.

As for A-Rod not getting sacked. Sure, some of it is design, but the big sack decrease has been over the Niners-Lions-Ravens games. Niners was somewhat impressive since that's the 7th-ranked sacking team, but Lions and Ravens are 26th and 27th in sacks. Chicago is another snoozer (17th), but it'll be interesting to see how well it holds up against the Steelers (2nd).

Probably the QB with the fewest losses will be the winner here. And if Manning gets some rest the next couple of games and Brees doesn't but continues to win games, it's definitely going to be Brees.

Yes. If Caldwell is foolish enough to follow Dungy's tradition (and everyone seems to assume he is despite the heaps of evidence indicating following Dungy's tradition doesn't work), Brees' chances increase. Manning deserves it more, though.

They stopped Purple Jesus, and then could focus on taking away the receivers, who couldn't get any separation. The Vikes' whole gameplan fell apart, and they really looked like they couldn't figure out what to do.

Yeah, most QBs don't operate well if you stop his running game and take away his receivers. Doy.

Thing is, it's not exactly easy to do. Seahawks did it for one quarter. Cardinals did it for one game by dominating the trenches, only their trenches are held by some Pro-Bowl/All-Pro caliber players. There's one easy-peasy team (Bears) and one team who may or may not show up in the trenches (Giants) to close the season.

What's interesting is the next two matchups. The Bengals and Panthers are easy to underestimate when it comes to D. Bengals have a rock-solid, unforgiving D that can go toe-to-toe with the Vikes, and the O necessary to put them behind, so that matchup will be a challenge. Panthers have less O giving the Vikes more breathing room, but like the Bengals, they have more interceptions than passing TDs allowed, and could have a field-day given the right opportunities.

 

[Sander]

Speaking of whom, only one Buc and two Hawks in his all-decade team. Suck on that, Assman!

It's ridiculous that he missed Warren Sapp there, unless he's counting Sapp for the '90s all-decade team and hence skipping him here. I'd maybe throw in Ronde Barber or John Lynch from the Bucs' teams, but those are both pretty iffy. Keyshawn Johnson is another possibility, but again a stretch. So can't really disagree with that.

I wouldn't be so sure about that, at least about putting it that clear-cut. A lot of the gain is in their defense growing further into their new 3-4 format, which has been working out excellent for 'em.

As for A-Rod not getting sacked. Sure, some of it is design, but the big sack decrease has been over the Niners-Lions-Ravens games. Niners was somewhat impressive since that's the 7th-ranked sacking team, but Lions and Ravens are 26th and 27th in sacks. Chicago is another snoozer (17th), but it'll be interesting to see how well it holds up against the Steelers (2nd).

Their O-line play has improved, but I think the major change in getting fewer sacks has been Rodgers' play. He's been throwing away the ball more and quicker, which you could already notice during the first three quarters of the Bucs game. From what I've seen of him since then, it's only gotten better.

Also, they did get sacked 6 times by the Bucs D, and while our D played decently during that game and we're not that horrible on getting sacks, we don't have a great D.

Yes. If Caldwell is foolish enough to follow Dungy's tradition (and everyone seems to assume he is despite the heaps of evidence indicating following Dungy's tradition doesn't work), Brees' chances increase. Manning deserves it more, though.

Sure. But I think that Caldwell actually said earlier this season that he'd rest the players once they secured the home field advantage or summat.

Yeah, most QBs don't operate well if you stop his running game and take away his receivers. Doy.

Well, sure. Except all year long it hasn't really looked like that could be done against the Vikings. All Day kept getting his yards, and when he didn't the receivers managed to step up. Yes, the Cardinals have a great run D and that allowed to do that, but they also managed to shutdown Harvin and Rice, which has been difficult this year too.

What's interesting is the next two matchups. The Bengals and Panthers are easy to underestimate when it comes to D. Bengals have a rock-solid, unforgiving D that can go toe-to-toe with the Vikes, and the O necessary to put them behind, so that matchup will be a challenge. Panthers have less O giving the Vikes more breathing room, but like the Bengals, they have more interceptions than passing TDs allowed, and could have a field-day given the right opportunities.

Except the Panthers don't have a good run D. The Vikes can probably just handoff to AP and Chester Taylor all day.

 

[UniversalWolf]

I think Manning will definitely win MVP, considering he won last year even though he didn't deserve it. There's no way he loses in a year when he has a strong case.

It's funny that Jim Sorgi is out for the year. He was Brooks Bollinger's backup at Wisconsin, was never as good as Bollinger, and he's been collecting a paycheck from the Colts all these years while Bollinger's been bouncing around the league. Even if it's the end of Sorgi's career he should still consider himself the world's luckiest bastard.

Chilly has always run a dink-and-dunk variant WC offense, ever since the first day he arrived in Minnesota. That's one of the reasons he isn't popular with Viking fans.

Tramon Williams is a fun player to watch. He screws up sometimes, but he usually comes back and makes a great play - especially those leaping interceptions. He's done that on several occasions that I remember. QBs should not try to pass over his head.

I think Ted Thompson deserves credit for drafting Jermichael Finley and Raji, and making the Clay Mattews trade. All those moves seem to be working out.

 

[Cimmerian Nights]

Yes. If Caldwell is foolish enough to follow Dungy's tradition (and everyone seems to assume he is despite the heaps of evidence indicating following Dungy's tradition doesn't work),

It never stopped Dungy from doing it to some extent every year, which is weird given it only worked once, I think I brought up their playoff exits extensively enough.
AFAIK they clinch the #1 AFC seed with one more victory. They're going to play the rest like preseason games (and still win mostly too). Homefield, 1st round bye, plenty of time to rest. They have everything lined up perfectly. Again. They have no excuses for not making a showing in the playoffs yet again.

Bollinger's been bouncing around the league.

I think he just won the UFL (Bowl?) thingie.

 

[Brother None]

I think he just won the UFL (Bowl?) thingie.

No, J.P. Losman did with Las Vegas Locomotive. Brooks Bollinger and his Florida Tuskers had a perfect season (6-0) but lost the championship game. Bollinger is like the Brady of the UFL.

Chilly has always run a dink-and-dunk variant WC offense, ever since the first day he arrived in Minnesota. That's one of the reasons he isn't popular with Viking fans.

And it's one of the reasons Favre's season isn't as impressive as his stats would make you think, as Sander's said multiple times. Running a dink-and-dunk offense does not an MVP make. Winning games by your arm does, and Favre has done that earlier in the season, but predictably, it looks like he might not keep it up later in.

It's ridiculous that he missed Warren Sapp there, unless he's counting Sapp for the '90s all-decade team and hence skipping him here. I'd maybe throw in Ronde Barber or John Lynch from the Bucs' teams, but those are both pretty iffy. Keyshawn Johnson is another possibility, but again a stretch.

The Mouth isn't even near the best receivers of the decade. He'd come somewhere way, way behind Randy Moss, Torry Holt, Marvin Harrison, Terrel Owens, etc. etc.

King does mention Ronde Barber as his CB2. John Lynch was a hard hitter, but not necessarily a top-flight safety.

Sapp should be in there, but might've been skipped due to limited seasons played/his status as a HoF '90s all decade team member, behind Cortez Kennedy.

All these Team of the Decade lists are just fluff until the HoF Committee gets around to making theirs anyway.

Their O-line play has improved, but I think the major change in getting fewer sacks has been Rodgers' play.

I know they've improved. I'm just saying, their improvements haven't been seriously tested yet.

Sure. But I think that Caldwell actually said earlier this season that he'd rest the players once they secured the home field advantage or summat.

Oy. Don't steal my phrasing.

Except all year long it hasn't really looked like that could be done against the Vikings.

Goddammit. I already pointed out the Seahawks did it, and that's not just the homer in me speaking. For a quarter, the Hawks showed the perfect template for stopping the Vikes O.

Except the Panthers don't have a good run D. The Vikes can probably just handoff to AP and Chester Taylor all day.

People always say you need to establish the run for (Favre's kind of) play-action passing, but you also need to establish the pass to run the ball. You can't just hand of to a RB all day, no matter how good. Even the Titans needed some throwing.

 

[Sander]

No, J.P. Losman did with Las Vegas Locomotive. Brooks Bollinger and his Florida Tuskers had a perfect season (6-0) but lost the championship game. Bollinger is like the Brady of the UFL.

Zing.

The Mouth isn't even near the best receivers of the decade. He'd come somewhere way, way behind Randy Moss, Torry Holt, Marvin Harrison, Terrel Owens, etc. etc.

King does mention Ronde Barber as his CB2. John Lynch was a hard hitter, but not necessarily a top-flight safety.

Sapp should be in there, but might've been skipped due to limited seasons played/his status as a HoF '90s all decade team member, behind Cortez Kennedy.

He played more seasons in the '00s than in the '90s. But yeah, that's probably it.

Goddammit. I already pointed out the Seahawks did it, and that's not just the homer in me speaking. For a quarter, the Hawks showed the perfect template for stopping the Vikes O.

Yes. For one quarter. They couldn't keep it up throughout the game, though.

People always say you need to establish the run for (Favre's kind of) play-action passing, but you also need to establish the pass to run the ball. You can't just hand of to a RB all day, no matter how good. Even the Titans needed some throwing.

Oh, yeah, sure. Just saying, the Panthers run D is bad and that should basically kill the Panthers. It's not like the Vikes passing game is that bad, and when the Panthers have to respect the

Hell, they couldn't even stop Freeman from getting a ton of yardage, the red zone interceptions killed Freeman and the dink-and-dunk offense of the Vikes should mean that that won't be much of a problem.

 

[TwinkieGorilla]

lol Browns!