North Korea Invades the United States

[Tagaziel]

That fails to account for the landscape (plenty of hills and mountains, a nightmare for any strategist) and the fanatism. The US outnumbers, outguns, and outperforms the Taliban as well, but are the latter dead?

Another missed comparison is putting the KPA and the US Army directly, without noting that the KPA would prefer misdirection and asymmetrical warfare, rather than outright confrontation they are going to lose.

At least the United States keeps their advantage and cancelled FCS.

 

[Ilosar]

That fails to account for the landscape (plenty of hills and mountains, a nightmare for any strategist) and the fanatism. The US outnumbers, outguns, and outperforms the Taliban as well, but are the latter dead?

Another missed comparison is putting the KPA and the US Army directly, without noting that the KPA would prefer misdirection and asymmetrical warfare, rather than outright confrontation they are going to lose.

At least the United States keeps their advantage and cancelled FCS.

Yeah, but the Talibans aren't an army or a regime, they're scattered bands of determined militias with the almost full support of the local population. I don't think the average downtrodden and starving North Korean populace will be as willing to help Regime troops, no matter what Pyongyang boasts about their supposed fanatism.

All the misdirection in the world doesn't matter much when you barely have cold war equipment against modern toys, your soldiers are half-starved, and your vehicles can barely run because you got next to no gas now that the hands-out have stopped. Simple logistics dictate that as it exists, the KPA is simply not capable of anything close to a prolonged war, especially because China and Russia will almost certainly desert them as soon as the bullets start flying. We're not in 1951 anymore.

But as I said, all that is moot anyhow. The North Koreans will never start a war no matter how pissant they try to appear, and the US knows it's not in his interests to bomb the crap outta them. Pyongyang will shout, get its oil and food, then stay silent for a few years until it dries up. Then the music will start again. And meanwhile, it's their people that suffers.

 

[Gaspard]

There's a slight possibility we'll find out how devoted to the cause the general populace is in NK...

No chance of NK invading the US, though - that's ridiculous and would probably be a very short-lived endeavor.

 

[Cimmerian Nights]

I don't think fanatics defect and refuse repatriation after surrender the way the North Korean Army has.
Anyone with any sense of self-preservation is going to outwardly be a fanatic in a totalitarian, Stalinist regime. Putting on a good public display of animosity or adulation like Orwell's Hate Week.

Pyongyang will shout, get its oil and food, then stay silent for a few years until it dries up. Then the music will start again. And meanwhile, it's their people that suffers.

This is the psychodramatic dance of the Kims.

 

[Gaspard]

I don't think fanatics defect and refuse repatriation after surrender the way the North Korean Army has.
Anyone with any sense of self-preservation is going to outwardly be a fanatic in a totalitarian, Stalinist regime. Putting on a good public display of animosity or adulation like Orwell's Hate Week.

You can't really compare these regimes one on one. The Soviet Union had a whole bunch of very different nations and ethnic groups under its wing, while in North Korea - they are all Korean. Do not underestimate pure nationalistic propaganda.

 

[Cimmerian Nights]

I'm not comparing the two countries, nor do I think Stalinist is synonymous with the Soviet Union as his direct successors repudiated him. I'm talking about repression and control.
As far as wartime propaganda goes, with the existentialist threat the USSR was facing, and the way the Nazis carried out their invasion didn't require a lot of embellishment to demonize. These Nork theatrics are just looney.

It's Spinal Tap-ian.
DEFCON 11!

 

[Gaspard]

I think the current situation's closer to a Cold War era Soviet Union, post-Stalinist to the max but with a twist - NK is acting like a looney bin Cold War era taunts between the SU and the US at least sounded more serious and businesslike (although the Cuban Missile Crisis was a sort of PR joke)

EDIT: what I mean by that is that neither side here is at war and hasn't been at war with each other for some time now

 

[Crni Vuk]

we have seen what this "korean" fanatism is worth in the 1950s when the US american troops marched over their fields as they almost conquered all of the North, if it would not have been for those 1 million chinese troops that crossed the border there would be no communistic regime today - though the south was at that time barely much better ...

Many of the troops, both chinese and north korean soldiers which have been in PoW camps prefered to stay in the south. This alone should tell you something about their "fanatism".

 

[Muff]

NK has a problem and that is they belive there own hype, at least the leadership do. They live the "good" life while most of the people live in quite harsh conditions, I am not saying there isn't a core that believe but the moment the proganda and Hearts an Minds kicks in dropping food, water etc I doubt the majority would see the USA / SK / NATO etc as the evil bad guys.

What I am worried about is, a accident. Tensions are high at the moment. All it can take to light this humanitarian (and this is what this situation will end up as) powder keg is one over zealous soldier on either side.

Let's say a NK True Believer who controls a field gun position says enough and orders his Battery to open fire on Seoul? This is say mid day an they are targeting a shopping or business district. And he fires lets say 5 shells a min (personal experience with a well trained gun crew) for two minutes before the Commissar or equivalent is able to take him down. The South would have to respond to that as would the US forces, now I am only talking about HE shells not things like Chemical or Biological weapons that NK are known to possess, and in quantity's.

Now, it's not just a Artillery unit that could cause problems, BOTH sides have special forces patrol the border. Let's say that one night SK's patrol get's fired on by the NK patrol or the other way around. One side calls support, other side sees the support calls its own support. It get's out of hand and then its a full blown battle.

The last scenario is well known, it is called a "Counterpart" shooting by the British Army, and a Wall Shooting by the West Germans, and from what I have been told by older Americans Wire incidents (I will say I have the terms from a Tank Commander who was stationed west Germany from 74 to 89), things can get out of hand and get to the point where you could brush it off politically to the point it ends up in a full armed conflict as either side follows it's established protocol.

 

[Crni Vuk]

I doubt that an accident would really start a war here. NK has nothing to gain from an war which they would lose 99% of the time.

 

[DammitBoy]

Saddam learned that lesson the hard way. Sometimes posturing ends up with you at the end of a rope.

Are you seriously comparing the demoralized, barely recovered Iraqi Army with the fourth largest, fanatical military of North Korea?

No. I don't know what you were reading but I was comparing two fanatical dictators who bluffed a lot...

 

[Cimmerian Nights]

Many of the troops, both chinese and north korean soldiers which have been in PoW camps prefered to stay in the south. This alone should tell you something about their "fanatism".

In the interest of fairness, some Americans defected to the North. 4 maybe. They became propaganda pawns and movie stars (villains obviously) in some of Kim Jong Il's movies. The lives of Joe Dresnok and Jenkins are pretty good Cold War fare. Some good documentaries on them like Crossing the Line.
[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FTZDGS0ABt8[/youtube]

 

[Gonzalez]

Found this article to be of interest, it discusses several things that were also discussed in this thread, like NK's real cappabilities and the escalations should a confilct start.

For those intrested: http://rt.com/op-edge/north-korea-us-danger-279/[/url]

 

[Crni Vuk]

nice article. This, in particular is pretty interesting in my eyes

The reality behind all of the nuclear arms rhetoric from the west is that there exists an international cartel monopoly on the building, engineering and fuel transportation in the nuclear power industry. Notice that North Korea said on Tuesday that it would restart its nuclear reactor. Some report that this is to feed its atomic weapons programme, but it’s hardly mentioned in the western media and political circles that North Korea has energy independence needs too. The situation with Iran is almost identical, who itself is also being starved and put under extreme economic sanctions as well.

Both countries need energy independence and both countries are more or less operating outside of the international nuclear cartel. The nuclear industry’s global cartel has three main players who divide the trade amongst themselves exclusively. Production material is handled by France, production systems are handled by the United States, and reprocessing is done by the British. One could easily argue then, that both North Korea and Iran have been labeled as ‘Axis of Evil’ because it is seen as competition.

politics? Freedom? My ass. Like always. Its only about the money. Just like most other wars we have seen in the last decades.

 

[TheGM]

duh?

How can Iran and Best Korea be a Axis when there is only 2 of them?

should have used of one the following.

Axel of Evil.

Duo of Deceit.

Tandem of Terror.

 

[Crni Vuk]

No one ever said Bush Junior was very skilled with chosing the names for his little terrorist states.

I personaly think, they just chose it, because no one could either remember the names of those nations or find them on any map. So when Bush refered to it it was just those ... uh ... you know, evil states over there!

 

[Sub-Human]

I doubt that an accident would really start a war here. NK has nothing to gain from an war which they would lose 99% of the time.

I believe it was 2010 when the North Koreans fired at a part of South Korea? The Seoul officials said they are not ready to take any more taunts from their communist enemies. The problem here is not so much in NK but in the US. If a war starts imagine the panic on the South Korean stock market.

 

[Tagaziel]

Yeah, but the Talibans aren't an army or a regime, they're scattered bands of determined militias with the almost full support of the local population. I don't think the average downtrodden and starving North Korean populace will be as willing to help Regime troops, no matter what Pyongyang boasts about their supposed fanatism.

All the misdirection in the world doesn't matter much when you barely have cold war equipment against modern toys, your soldiers are half-starved, and your vehicles can barely run because you got next to no gas now that the hands-out have stopped. Simple logistics dictate that as it exists, the KPA is simply not capable of anything close to a prolonged war, especially because China and Russia will almost certainly desert them as soon as the bullets start flying. We're not in 1951 anymore.

I'm looking up KPA data and it seems that the "impoverished, starved army" is a myth created by western media, not supported by hard data. In fact, there's little actual evidence either way. The KPA being a paper tiger is an assumption by SK and US analysts.

http://www.examiner.com/article/north-vs-south-korea-the-balance-of-military-power

There are two major problems I see:

1. Modern equipment is inherently better than old equipment.

I consider the above statement fallacious. It's an argument from novelty that doesn't consider actual performance. An antiquated AKM is still a viable assault rifle that is going to be a problem for anyone on the receiving end, just like a modern export AK. A 155mm shell fired from an antiquated howitzer is going to be a bad day for anyone, especially if its accompanied by dozens more covering one of its approaches.

Any modern technology can be countered. If disorganized, untrained militas can do that in Afghanistan, consider how much more effective a trained, state-backed army would be in a similar scenario.

2. The KPA is weak because it doesn't have fuel or food to support its operations.

It's an assumption, backed by weak sources. It also doesn't account for non-conventional warfare or sleeper agents in SK (who, by definition, are in deep cover and can't really be assessed). One of the elements of Soviet military doctrine were operations on US soil in case of conflict: Spetsnaz units penetrating the mainland as deep undercover agents and staging attacks on military assets (Suvorov's book on Spetsnaz is an enlightening lecture).

But as I said, all that is moot anyhow. The North Koreans will never start a war no matter how pissant they try to appear, and the US knows it's not in his interests to bomb the crap outta them. Pyongyang will shout, get its oil and food, then stay silent for a few years until it dries up. Then the music will start again. And meanwhile, it's their people that suffers.

Wars have a tendency to break out unexpectedly, sometimes as a result of an incident going out of proportion.

 

[valcik]

Any unfortunate American trooper crossing the borderline will be defeated ruthlessly by the North Korean 1st Regiment of Seductive Assignment!

 

[Makta]