Russian-Ukrainian war

Sub-Human said:
Under these conditions, it'll take a miracle to save Russia from Ukranian-style protests and a regime change.
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In theory, sure - but Russia knows how to handle bad press. There are also organized pro-Putin political groups.
Yanukovich failed at damage control and brought out the big guns – I'm sure in Russia they'd get people to fight amongst each other before it escalates to that.
 
Damnit. As much as one should always be careful with "is going to war" and such statements, this situation does not look particularily good at all. It technically is an invasion now, and Russian ideas of "political normalization" would undoubtedly be something like a replaced pro-Russian government. Invasion to install puppet state. Sigh...

(In other words, they're basically "pulling an Iraq", but this is of course much closer to home to us Euros and westerners in general)
 
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zegh8578 said:
Damnit. As much as one should always be careful with "is going to war" and such statements, this situation does not look particularily good at all. It technically is an invasion now, and Russian ideas of "political normalization" would undoubtedly be something like a replaced pro-Russian government. Invasion to install puppet state. Sigh...

(In other words, they're basically "pulling an Iraq", but this is of course much closer to home to us Euros and westerners in general)
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Yeah, and Irak was an isolated country with close to no allies. Ukraine is smack-dab in the middle of Eastern Europe and just reaffirmed its ties to Europe as a whole. This is a wholly different beast from invading Georgia. I'm really not sure how Putin imagines this will reallly benefit him in the long run. I really hope Russia is just waving its dick around and won't commit to drastic action, but there's no way Ukraine will just accept a full-scale intervention in Crimea.
 
zegh8578 said:
naossano said:
(they don't need to invade it, just to support a puppet president, that will keep supporting them afterward)
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This is difficult without hostility, especially after Ukraine has so well established what direction they want to go, if we talk about democracy. The people and the armed forces want to move away from Russia. If Ukraine then had an election, where it just seemed like all of Ukraine wanted Russia back in the fold, the population would obviously get wise to the scam at work, and rebel against it.

In that sense, it is easyer for Russia, if they are that dedicated, to move troops in beforehand. To expect hostility.

Same as they cannot invade _only_ Crimea, imagine the waste of resource to fight, fight and fight inside Crimea, while the Crimean defense (Ukrainians) have the rest of the country to retreat into and regroup. Even with little Georgia, you could see how Russia would move way beyond their "claims", precisely to disrupt the Georgian military efficiency.
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I've hear that crimean wanted to organize a referendum to determine their fate. If they choose to become independants or join the Russia by themselves (no fight involved), the rest of the ukraine maybe be more inclined to accept a pro-european Ukraine. While, as long as Crimea prefers Russia over the actual governement (after the Revolution), there will be troubles and a risk of a new civil war amongs citizens of Ukraine (without the need of russian troops).

(Crimea : Semi-autonomous area, in which the whole population think themselves as russian and speak russian instead of ukraine language)

On the other hand, if the Ukraine accept the loss of Crimea, it will be a loss too, that would weaken the country as well.

Of course all of this is said according partial information. I never studied the Ukraine political situation before those events.
 
The news are really terrible, Russia's going to invade Ukraine, not only Crimea (Putin's request is fully accepted by Federaltion Council). Jeez, that most probably means war :( And many people here, in Russia, are really brainwashed by pro-gov't TV, hence wholeheartedly support this.
 
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If Russia wants to make Crimea a client state I don't see what anyone can do. Even with international support, how would Ukraine fight both Russia and pro-Russian militants?
 
naossano, Crimea is an autonomous area yes, but of a sovereign state. Ukraine (or any country in that situation) will not easily let it go. Sovereignty as a whole is always vital for a country to defend "to the last man", because it is what defines the practical existence of your country! And yes, as I feared, 13pm seems to confirm - in order to control Crimea - all of Ukraine must be made unable to defend the region.

Awful news... one can only hope of a sudden deescalation of it all, but idunno what would cause that... Even if Ukraine handed Crimea over on a platter, Russia could still have ambitions to replace the Ukrainian gvt.
 
DFa0httVFPY.jpg

Like that.
 
Tagaziel said:
Sub-Human said:
Yes, Russia is invading Crimeria. Those are regular Russian troops, not PMCs. The Western Ukraine (Kiev) also lost all contact with the outer world - Internet and telephone not working. Airports blockaded.
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That's Crimea, not Western Ukraine.
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I understand. But if the Ukranians didn't take any more crap from their own government, how will they feel when the 'moscali' from the East invade their territory?

BonusWaffle said:
Im willing to bet this whole thing is about getting nato troops on russias border.
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This is one of the more common Russian propaganda. Uncle Sam and all these Western Evils that want to control the world. Russia is the last bastion of hope! I hope you're not serious to believe this.
 
Sub-Human said:
.. but most importantly they're the 'slavic brothers' as Russian politicians referred to them just a few weeks back.
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Russia don't give a fuck about some slavic brotherhood, dude. Almost 10.000 educated people of former Czechoslovakia were deported to Siberia by NKVD after the WW2, they disappeared without a trace. Presumably died in gulags. Not even talking about Russian invasion in 1968, followed by 40 years of communist brainwashing during the occupation of our country and many others; people tortured by KGB (STB) on a regular basis; oppression of religious freedom; press and media censorhip; just name it.

Bloody stupid occupants and fucking aggressors they are, not slavic brothers, lemme tell ya! ^^
 
Sub-Human said:
This is one of the more common Russian propaganda. Uncle Sam and all these Western Evils that want to control the world. Russia is the last bastion of hope! I hope you're not serious to believe this.
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Good and evil exists inside societies, not between competing wild animals. I hope you are not serious to believe any nation is not taking every possible action it can to feed itself.
 
valcik said:
Sub-Human said:
.. but most importantly they're the 'slavic brothers' as Russian politicians referred to them just a few weeks back.
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Russia don't give a fuck about some slavic brotherhood, dude.

Bloody stupid occupants and fucking aggressors they are, not slavic brothers, lemme tell ya! ^^
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I agree. This invasion right here proves they could care less.

The point is that it's A to B - first politicians call them Slavic brothers (i.e. support the pro-Russian Ukranians, they must fight against the nazis at Euro Maidan), now they are killing the same Slavic brothers. I'd wager that definitely goes to undermine the authority, despite all the propaganda. It won't help the war effort, or the stability of the current regime (and there have been mass protests in 2012 in Moscow, so it's definitely less stable than people are lead to believe).

Also, Ukraine has called for an immediate general mobilisation. The situation looks more and more like unnecessary bloodshed...
 
Sub-Human said:
Also, Ukraine has called for an immediate general mobilisation. The situation looks more and more like unnecessary bloodshed...
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That's the problem with revolutions - if you don't have a Lenin-type figure with a plan, bigger fish will come and pick up the pieces.

EDIT: tha latest update on Interfax was that Ukranian military is effectively defecting to Crimea (Russian side). It looks like what I proposed earlier: the country is divided pretty much in half and Russia will just need to tip the scales by acting the big bad wolf. We'll see, though. One misfire in the dark and....
 
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Gaspard said:
Does it really? I understand that if a poodle like North Korea gets one and starts wagging it people get nervous, but i find it hard to believe that any of the big boys would even consider deploying nukes if you're not at their capital's doorstep.
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Even today a nuclear arsenal still has a lot of weight. North Korea or even the Iran doesnt matter as much like Russia or China that have real strike capabilities. What is NK or Iran doing with a couple of nukes? They will have a hard time to reach the US and its not enough to destroy them completely. But the US has still the arsenal to probably blow up half of the hemisphere. And Russia and China are in similar positions. Those are the big players right now. You could see Europe as a power as well, but Europe is still far away from beeing a real weight to one of them. I think the nuclear arsenal they have is less about making people nervous. It simply gives the US or Russia its status as super power. At least in my opinion.
 
I don't think the issue with nukes is that the big nations are afraid that they'd be destroyed altogether. It's the dust, fallout and civilian collateral that's the problem. Nuking anybody is not profitable - and in the end the 21. century wars have been about profit and long term gains.

It wouldn't really matter if there's one nuclear blast or many. The latter scenario is Ragnarök anyway... So while big boys are smart enough to try and avoid nuclear holocaust, a smaller country cornered politically and economically might use theirs in panic.

That convoluted bit was my reasoning why smaller countries with nukes would be more dangerous...
 
Crimea means an enormous lot to Russia strategicaly (well, to the Russian military anyway). It was alway the lynchpin of Russian influence in the area around the black sea and it's gateway to both the mediterranean and the middle east and plenty of stuff connected to those two regions. They only gave it over to Ukraine because of a birocratic scheeme by one of their goverments (russian one, not ukrainian), but they never really gave it up. I'm not sure they even bothered to move their Black Sea fleet at all durion all these years.

So yeah, they will go to war over it, and Putin would be perfectlly willing to see the rest of Ukraine burn if it ment he could have his ships where he wants them. There's nothing Ukraine can offer as compensation that would be worth losing Crimea. Heck, for some schools of Russian military/strategic doctrine, threatening Russian formal or informal dominion over Crimea is allready == war, so Putin and his generals probably really think they are reacting sensibly and in a no-nonsense manner.

Whether it could go to nukes... Probably not, because any western miliary/geopolitical expert on russia can tell you that if you Push Russia on this issue you're digging your own grave. Which also means noone ought to be mad enough to back Ukraine up, no matter how worthy the cause otherwise. Putin wants as much dominion over the Black sea and as much desolate backwater between him and Europe. I just hope he settles for just Crimea or even half of Ukraine and doesn't decide to simply remake the USSR again.
 
In the West several groups (countries, NATO, blabla) have been wagging their fingers already. Do you think they'll back words up with muscle when Russia doesn't react to patronizing?
 
lujo said:
.....Which also means noone ought to be mad enough to back Ukraine up, no matter how worthy the cause otherwise. Putin wants as much dominion over the Black sea and as much desolate backwater between him and Europe. I just hope he settles for just Crimea or even half of Ukraine and doesn't decide to simply remake the USSR again....
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Which is what he wants - disunity and inaction from the EU. The more slack on his leash, the more shit like this you will see in the future and if it goes far enough... well, you read the history books and the man (Putin) did show many hints at admiring Stalin (for example ordering Russian school history books to be "revised" on the subject of Stalins regime).

It's also pretty ridiculous that no sanctions will be placed on them, for pretty much anything they do. It's a disgrace...
 
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