US considers use of nuclear weapons against Iran

[welsh]

An unfriendly foreign country owning nukes will tend to make people nervous. Sometimes, for the right reasons…

Then again, if it's oil we want (we want it), it's oil we get (we're getting it). And what a better way to pay for it than with blood? After all, it is American tradition to pay for things in such ways…..

People tend to like to feel secure. Even if it's a delusion, if it's sold to us as a reality, it tends to work. That's a fact. Mom's and dad's across the world don't like putting their families in danger, and will probably sell out to the highest bidder offering, sometimes fictuous safety. Hell, we didn't want our Arab allies owning some of our ports for a reason.

Paranoia often has a strong hold on those with power.

The fact that gas prices are ultimately destined to go up does not mean a war for oil makes it worse for the country that acquires those resources.

As for Homeland Security. (WARNING, THE FOLLOWING IS NOT OPINION, SO DON'T FUCKING QUOTE IT AS SUCH) If people sleep safe at night, it's all the matters. Doesn't matter what fairyland-like dreams they may have about personal rights.

Terrorist/guerrilla forces? Let's leave those options to the fantasies of Homeland Security- for them to do something when they are not doing cyber sex with 14 year old girls.

Fantasies? First, they don't have to be hostile towards the U.S. to create shitstorms, second, the things you don't know, are not necessarily fantasy.

AH, you weren’t born during the last election, but would still make the stupid mistake and vote for W, because it’s better the devil you know than the one you only suspect because the Republicans can smear a guy and get away with it.
= stupid.

Kerry got crushed because he didn't play dirty or tell it like it is. Bush won because he's a scumbag. And you'd support him.

Well you get what you pay for. Which was alec's point.

Look, Kharn pointed it out above and I agreed, I am on the rag.

Don’t take it personally. I am not going to ban you for being dumb or even insulting. At least your insults show that you still got enough reason to be pissed off.

How much do you have to be slapped on the face before it matters to you. How blind do you have to be to not see that you're being bitched slapped now worse than I or anyone else here could ever do you.

How fucking blind are you?

You’re young. You’re entitled to that (being both stupid and pissed off). But be careful with that. That combination will get you in more than a fair share of trouble.

The problem with a lot of young guys, like yourself, is that they are utterly clueless but enthusiastic to say something they think makes sense. You don’t know because you haven’t learned.

You haven’t seen it.
You haven’t read.
And most of you are willing to remain clueless.
Just as long as you get your crappy Hollywood movies, your crappy video games, your rock and maybe something else to get you by.

But you're young. And you young guys are eager to participate, to speak up, to join up and fight the good cause, or at least the cause that looks good.

Don’t.

You’re better off just shutting the fuck up and listening.

And thinking.

Because, dude, you’re not thinking. Read your posts and think about them.

There were plenty of folks – mainly Republicans- that have managed to manipulate a lot of people because they were afraid, because people were pissed off, and in the process they managed to cause a lot debt, a lot of problems, a lot of death and a lot of otherwise bad shit.

And they did it because people didn’t think. Because they were scared for their personal safety, because they let this guy have some fun at their expense.

There are a lot of guys just like you that lined up to go fight the good fight, and are now fighting in a fucked up war in a country that didn’t even attack us.

And some of them are not going to come back.

Trust me, I know. I teach guys just like you every fucking day.

What I am point out to you is that you’re not thinking.
And by not thinking you’re going to fuck yourself up.

If you don’t think, than you might as well be sheep for the slaughter.

And in the process you’ll just join the rest of the poor fuckers
getting slaughtered for these pricks in Washington.

Does W have a big cock? Have I seen it?

WTF? Haven’t you?

How fucking blind do you have to be not to see how fucked up the guy has made this country. It take a big dick to fuck up a country this much, and that’s W.

And if you want to swallow it, if you swallow what W will spew into your mouth (oh yeah, you'd vote for him again and man, you’re post sure as hell suggest that you will), than might as well bend over, because that’s next.

And if I am so concerned about getting my ass rammed, maybe its because I have been watching how this guy has been ass ramming my country for 6 years, and I think it’s a bit too much.

And if you don’t believe it, than you’re doubly blind because this prick is fucking us all.

@ Elli- bud, it's already too late for that. If you want to be different the other fuckers, than you have to act it, not just say it. But that kind of acting takes too much work, or at least that's how it seems.

 

[Elissar]

@ Elli- bud, it's already too late for that. If you want to be different the other fuckers, than you have to act it, not just say it. But that kind of acting takes too much work, or at least that's how it seems.

Well, unfortuneately it seems, that it may be already too late. And as for me, I'm already in this fight, for at least another two years, come hell or high water. There really isnt a lot i can do but do my job, hope for some common sense from my country and vote in the next election. Assuming I'm alive then. I'm optimistic on that last point though.

 

[Paladin Solo]

Some of this is going to be off-topic and personal (as in my personal feelings, not insults). Try and bear through it, or skip it entirely.

because the Republicans can smear a guy and get away with it.

Smear campaigns are only effective when some, if not all, of it is true

Kerry got crushed because he didn't play dirty or tell it like it is.

Kerry and plenty of lefties threw out their fair share of smear campaigns.

How fucking blind are you?

Well I do have prescription eye-glasses.

The problem with a lot of young guys, like yourself, is that they are utterly clueless but enthusiastic to say something they think makes sense. You don’t know because you haven’t learned.

I don't want to make sense of my world. I want to understand my purpose in it.

But you're young. And you young guys are eager to participate, to speak up, to join up and fight the good cause, or at least the cause that looks good.

I have this attitude. My life, right now, amounts to nothing. I haven't served any purpose, any good doings. I don't know what the fuck to do. So I'm going to take the risk, and try a thing or two out on my own. I just graduated, and I want to experiment with the world around me.

I don't know what I'm going to do with my life, but I do know that I am in a position make a life-changing choice this summer. I'm not joining the military because I believe in the good fight for Iraqi freedom, but because I feel I have something to prove to myself. I want to make a difference. Let me make my mistakes, as it is easier for me to learn from mine, then to learn from others. I'm eager, optimistic, and young, I can't help it.

You’re better off just shutting the fuck up and listening.

Sounds like taking it up the ass to me.

And thinking.

Ouch.

There were plenty of folks – mainly Republicans- that have managed to manipulate a lot of people because they were afraid, because people were pissed off, and in the process they managed to cause a lot debt, a lot of problems, a lot of death and a lot of otherwise bad shit.

No, no, no. I know the misdoings, evils, and wrongs of my world. I simply don't think Kerry would've done a better job, or possibly, he might've made it worse. Again, I care not about understanding the world around me, more so than the desire to understand my role in it. Wether that role be a simple computer technician in some fucked up little shanty town, to something bigger, better, I guess I'll find out.

And some of them are not going to come back.

I've seen the pictures of the casketts. I saw a guy get decapitated in Iraq (video), but, for some reason, the pictures of the dead being flown back home in a box made me puke, while the decapitation video gave me an uneasy feeling, and hatred.

Trust me, I know. I teach guys just like you every fucking day.

You must get pissed off a lot.

If you don’t think, than you might as well be sheep for the slaughter.

6 billion people in the world, Welsh. I need to find out if I'm special. Otherwise, more meat for the grinder.

And in the process you’ll just join the rest of the poor fuckers
getting slaughtered for these pricks in Washington.

Again, I'm doing it for me, and I get payed to do it. You would rather watch and learn, I'd rather do and learn. Not saying that's a bad thing for you, when it is probably for me.

Does W have a big cock? Have I seen it?

WTF? Haven’t you?

Heh...

 

[Roshambo]

Thanks it doesnt look as good on my class A's though, gotta get a custom rack built because i'm so small framed that my lapel almost completely covers the air medal.

Reminds me of my grandmother's WWII uniforms, which I found when I was digging through their attic (an ungodly treasure trove through a few generations, which also held my father's sci-fi collection from the 40's and 50's, and many of my grandfather's taped recordings of radio shows from around the 20's). She is so damn slim, she had to wear her metals almost stacked on top of one another.

On me, however, I had room to spare even when working on the third bracket, and could have gone four wide.

The unluckiest SOB I've seen was the gunney from Nam. Was as high as my chest, yet had a full salad bowl and a half.

As for the topic...really, if you don't think the US is past due for a civil war, you need to wake up, because that is where it is heading.

Because in the end welsh, that would make us no different from any of the other countries who thought of genocide as a viable solution to their problems.

Some people need to learn the US' involvement with the Geneva Conventions, in particular Article IV. It was, mainly, to assure the world that Nagasaki and Hiroshima would never happen again unless it was under dire circumstances, to which the US and USSR were using the threat of violating that as the entire background for the Cold War. Civilians cannot be targeted at a whim, so why not just give the okay to bomb a TV station while you're at it?

What Blair and Bush do not realize, but people like Jon Stewart and company archive to make the president eat his own words, is that the evidence for the revolution has been televised. Everything they have publicly said has been put into recordings that are archived and may be brought out as evidence. There's a lot of it, especially from one series of clips, that proves Bush has consistently lied to the US people over three years.

Back to the nukes, remember that they're just towelheads...like how Mexicans are all wetbacks. Oh, wait, no, just those illegally entering the country to complicate internal problems by having a load of undocumented people and anchor babies to further complicate the system are wetbacks. Maybe we should just nuke Mexico and solve that problem as well since nobody would miss more wetbacks when there's a shitload already in the country, eh? Same logic, and less of a social program drain, so it's Win-Win, baby!

Reciprocal actions, folks. We light off nukes, so will everyone else waiting to point a finger and say "They did it first!" like some child.

And yet the US is going to walk right into that. I really couldn't expect anything less of George Witless Bush. Or people too stupid to let it happen.

Does W have a big cock? Have I seen it?

WTF? Haven’t you?

Nonono...Jon Stewart proved that Cheney was the REAL Democrat Party mascot.

 

[EyeMaster7]

And if you want to swallow it, if you swallow what W will spew into your mouth (oh yeah, you'd vote for him again and man, you’re post sure as hell suggest that you will), than might as well bend over, because that’s next.

After this post I'm sure PS is going to vote on W's gang again. PS Go back to sleep. eh. After all theses years you keep the same. Big Heh.... Welsh and this obsession with the size of Bush's cock?

The blindfold was removed and I found myself sitting in a large white car like the kind you find in an amusement part. It was long and white and when I looked behind me, I saw that it had a tale. It took a moment for me to realize what it was. A giant sperm, at the end of the rail the head of a penis.

And in front of me what I took to be the entrance to a fun house ride, I saw what looked like the biggest ass in the world. A huge pale, flabby ass with hairs that grew like bushes on the side of rock. And the track I was on ran straight into the crack of the ass.

So this ride really changed your life, eh? When you are going to finish the story anyway?


If Bush nukes Iran other nations are going to revive their sekret nuclear programs. Very soon a nation which developed atomics can nuke the USA to boost its economy. In a hypothetical future the USA can mass produce sweetpea making the price so competitive that a certain country can lost it's main income source. So nuking the USA would be a cheap solution and probably it's going to nuke another country that does not have nothing to do with it in retaliation. The technology is not so advanced for nowdays standards. Many nations must have nukes but do not do surface test or do minor underground simulations to avoid panic in their neighboring countries. If their neighbor knows their enemy or not so friendly partner have atomics their are going to develop a nuclear program. India and Pakistan is a classic example. After two weeks India started a series of nuclear tests, Pakistan's did five underground tests officially becoming a member of the nuclear club. India's mistake was to make clearly to Pakistan that it had atomics and was ready to use then in case of war, pressing the Pakistan government to develop a nuclear arsenal.

 

[Elissar]

Thanks it doesnt look as good on my class A's though, gotta get a custom rack built because i'm so small framed that my lapel almost completely covers the air medal.

Reminds me of my grandmother's WWII uniforms, which I found when I was digging through their attic (an ungodly treasure trove through a few generations, which also held my father's sci-fi collection from the 40's and 50's, and many of my grandfather's taped recordings of radio shows from around the 20's). She is so damn slim, she had to wear her metals almost stacked on top of one another.

On me, however, I had room to spare even when working on the third bracket, and could have gone four wide.

The unluckiest SOB I've seen was the gunney from Nam. Was as high as my chest, yet had a full salad bowl and a half.

Heh, well, we cant all be freaky large like you man. However from a collectors standpoint, your grandmothers uniform would be quite a thing to have. Still trying to talk a buddy's dad into selling me a japanese officers sword his father brought back from asia.

On topic +1

]As for the topic...really, if you don't think the US is past due for a civil war, you need to wake up, because that is where it is heading.

Never said it wasnt headin there, I am however hopeing that people will come to their senses and that Civil War can be avoided.

Reciprocal actions, folks. We light off nukes, so will everyone else waiting to point a finger and say "They did it first!" like some child.

Pretty shure i said that once or twice before.

And yet the US is going to walk right into that. I really couldn't expect anything less of George Witless Bush. Or people too stupid to let it happen.

Like i said, I can still hold out hope for some common sense and restraint from the people of my country.

But The way things are headed, I'm really not worried about my pack a day smoking habbit killing me.

 

[welsh]

OK, I have cut out Pale Horse's existential crisis with stupidty, meaning and laziness.

Now where were we.

Oh yeah- Bush's big Cock is fucking the country up!

Let's fucking Nuke Iran already! it's been a long time since we've erradiated (oops, bad spelling- it's actually 'irradiated'- thank you Kharn you spelling nazi) something and besides that will just be more proof that Bush is one of the biggest fuck ups of all time.

It's that or people have got to start paying attention and doing something.

Or you're going to get it up the ass.

Oh and Eyemaster, yeah- I'll finish the story. SPOILER- It's really a simple ending. After being kicked out of the lesbian commune that has milked my dick for semen, I'm too weak to move and left on a street in San Francisco. Two cops come and pick me up, but then end up fighting over who gets to use me as their sex toy (a violent fem vs an angry homosexual), Guns are drawn and lead fired. The cops who come thereafter suspect I did it, and go Rodney King on me, ending up I get thrown in jail where I meet a familiar face and consider the meaning of the word exfoliate.
Did I ruin it for you?

 

[Brother None]

Let's fucking Nuke Iran already! it's been a long time since we've erradiated something

So long that you forgot how to spell irradiated!

PS: ok, back on topic.

Welsh; what has got you so hopping anxious to nuke Iran? What long-term purpose would it serve?

 

[welsh]

Oh and while we're on it.
Is W's big dick also ass fucking the military.

4 out of 5 proctologists agree that the republican party is ass fucking the military.

WHy do I want to see Iran irradiated (proper spelling, oh spelling Nazi).

I don't. Actually I know a few Persian chicks that are kind of hot and I really don't want to see the Iranians become mutants.

But I also don't want to see another exercise in occupation by this fucked up administration leading to the death of more of our guys.

What long term purpose would it serve? As long as we get the oil and don't have to deal with a bunch of whacko militants, than it serves our interest.

Basically, I admit, I just want to be shocked and awed.
I was disappointed in the Iraq war that the bombing campaign was all hype and little substance. I mean we couldn't even get Hussein, just his two dipshit sons.

Besides, if its true what Alec says that we are all on the way to the big apocalypse as oil runs out and we start slitting each other's throat to fill a tank of gas, than might as well get the ball rolling sooner than later.

Later it will be too late to stop it.
Sooner might mean we come to our senses and think, "Holy shit, that was fucked up."

Because the last time we dropped the big ones, people were shocked and awed, and happily no one has done it since.

Maybe we forgot.

Maybe we have gotten too post modern with our crazy faith in religion to forget how wicked powerful science in the hands of a lunatic can be.

Maybe the world needs to be shocked out of its lethargy.

We had an opportunity in 9-11 to do something meaningful,
But Bush is such a cock that he blew it.

Maybe we need a big bang to get people thinking about making the world a better place again- to reduce everything to zero and start over.

I don't know.

Frankly, I am just pissed off. This fucking dissertation is killing me.

 

[Brother None]

Actually I know a few Persian chicks that are kind of hot.

Surprisingly a lot of international politics boils down to this.

But I also don't want to see another exercise in occupation by this fucked up administration leading to the death of more of our guys.

...

You know the biggest problem in Iraq is the death of large, very large numbers of innocent Iraqis. Not the handful of guys you lost.

What long term purpose would it serve? As long as we get the oil and don't have to deal with a bunch of whacko militants, than it serves our interest.

The oil will be irradiated.

Whacko militants have already proven succinctly that killing them does not tend to stop them.

Basically, I admit, I just want to be shocked and awed.

Then go into the sauna with Brett Favre. No need to take it out on the Iranians.

I was disappointed in the Iraq war that the bombing campaign was all hype and little substance. I mean we couldn't even get Hussein, just his two dipshit sons.

Wait, what?

Besides, if its true what Alec says

Nothing that alec says is true, unless it is about women, alcohol or feet.

Later it will be too late to stop it.
Sooner might mean we come to our senses and think, "Holy shit, that was fucked up."

There is no "sooner" or "later" in nuclear war.

Because the last time we dropped the big ones, people were shocked and awed, and happily no one has done it since.

Last time you dropped the big ones there was nobody to drop them back, especially not the guys you dropped them on.

Situation has changed since then.

Maybe we have gotten too post modern with our crazy faith in religion to forget how wicked powerful science in the hands of a lunatic can be.

It's the lunatic that has the power, though, not the science, you dumbass post-modernist.

Maybe the world needs to be shocked out of its lethargy.

By destroying it?

We had an opportunity in 9-11 to do something meaningful,
But Bush is such a cock that he blew it.

Bush's cockedness in this case *was* his attempt to shock and awe, not the lack of shock and awe. Shock and awe and violence are proven to be exceedingly less effective in the WoT.

This fucking dissertation is killing me.

That's a good reason to bomb Iran.

 

[Elissar]

WHy do I want to see Iran irradiated (proper spelling, oh spelling Nazi).

{snip some stuff}

Basically, I admit, I just want to be shocked and awed.

I can post naked pictures of myself for you in the uber secret admin/mod forum, that would be shocking and aweful (full of awe).

I was disappointed in the Iraq war that the bombing campaign was all hype and little substance. I mean we couldn't even get Hussein, just his two dipshit sons.

Leave it to the Air Force to disappoint welsh, where's Tone when you need an Airforce lackey to pin shit on.

Besides, if its true what Alec says

Nothing alec says is true.

Frankly, I am just pissed off. This fucking dissertation is killing me.

Well i can see how nuking iran would be stress relieving.

 

[welsh]

Actually I know a few Persian chicks that are kind of hot.

Surprisingly a lot of international politics boils down to this.

And yet surprisingly the Palestinians and the Israeli's have yet to figure out that the thing the both really want is a hot swedish blonde with loose moral values.

International politics is also about selfishness and the remarkable tendency of mankind to fuck up.

But I also don't want to see another exercise in occupation by this fucked up administration leading to the death of more of our guys.

...

You know the biggest problem in Iraq is the death of large, very large numbers of innocent Iraqis. Not the handful of guys you lost.

For them perhaps. Actually I think the biggest problem for the Iraqis is a civil war that's going to make the death count skyrocket, and for the US to minimize the costs of that civil war caused by Bush being such a big prick.

But as we said in another post, people tend to care about what's immediate and familiar. I teach a lot of kids of about military age, and have seen a few guys come back from Iraq on rotation.

So it pisses me off that this war has been so badly bungled that these guys are at risk, and the Iraqis are getting killed, and there is a civil war on the horizon.

What long term purpose would it serve? As long as we get the oil and don't have to deal with a bunch of whacko militants, than it serves our interest.

The oil will be irradiated.

Whacko militants have already proven succinctly that killing them does not tend to stop them.

Perhaps. Depends on where we drop the bombs. If we leave the oil fields alone and hit the cities, and the winds go the right way... and if sheep can fly...
well anyway.

As for killing whacko militants. Killing them does stop them, but it encourages more whacko relgiious militants. Kill one and you get two until there are no militants left.

Didn't we have a computer simulation that basically illustrated that?

Basically, I admit, I just want to be shocked and awed.

Then go into the sauna with Brett Favre. No need to take it out on the Iranians.

I was disappointed in the Iraq war that the bombing campaign was all hype and little substance. I mean we couldn't even get Hussein, just his two dipshit sons.

Wait, what?

Well Sadam was in a cave, I think we killed Uday and Usay via a bomb. Uday and Usay- jesus, what a pair of whacks.

Don't know Brett Favre. I don't think my wife would like that. Besides I need to dissertate.

Besides, if its true what Alec says

Nothing that alec says is true, unless it is about women, alcohol or feet.

There's a lot to be said about women, alcohol and feet though. Actually I thought his post earlier in this thread was pretty prophetic.

And if he's right, that's depressing.

Later it will be too late to stop it.
Sooner might mean we come to our senses and think, "Holy shit, that was fucked up."

There is no "sooner" or "later" in nuclear war.

Not if you're getting nuked. But let's be fair. No one is stepping up to deter a nuclear strike on Iran. The russians and the CHinese won't. THe North Koreans really can't. So the Iranians are on their own. A couple of nukes on the Iranians and a lot of folks will be pissed with the US, but I doubt anyone will risk nuclear holocaust
for the Iranians.

Hell the Russians might actually see it as an opportunity to move south and get that warm water port. ANd the Chinese are too self interested to care.

Let's be fair, no one has the iranian back.
The US would quibble over whether we'd launch if the Russians went conventional against West Germany- do we launch when the Russians get to the Rhine or when they take Berlin? No one even considering that for Iran.

When the nuclear rain falls on Iran, no one is going to offer an umbrella.

Because the last time we dropped the big ones, people were shocked and awed, and happily no one has done it since.

Last time you dropped the big ones there was nobody to drop them back, especially not the guys you dropped them on.

Situation has changed since then.

Last I heard the Iranians don't even have the bomb, nor do they have a retaliatory capacity. So I am not worried about them. All that "we'll smuggle a nuke into New York or LA" stuff is just spy movie crap. It's too damn difficult and who would trust the Iranians with a bomb.

No one will retaliate against the US. To do so would be to risk retaliation in kind. Who is willing to stick their necks out for Iran.
I mean the Chinese have doubts the US will protect Taiwan, and we can lay most of China to nuclear ruin (although to be fair, they can do enough damage to us to achieve the same result).

Maybe we have gotten too post modern with our crazy faith in religion to forget how wicked powerful science in the hands of a lunatic can be.

It's the lunatic that has the power, though, not the science, you dumbass post-modernist.

Post modernist? No way. Not me. I am back in the modernist day. I see all these religious whacks as the revenge of post modernism. And yes, maybe we need to see how powerful science can be.

Speaking of which, can you name this movie-

Glory be to the Bomb, and to the Holy Fallout. As it was in the beginning, is now, and ever shall be. World without end. Amen.

May the Blessings of the Bomb Almighty, and the Fellowship of the Holy Fallout, descend upon us all. This day and forever more.

I wonder if the "End days" whackos have picked up on that yet.

Maybe the world needs to be shocked out of its lethargy.

By destroying it?

I seriously doubt a limited exchange on Iran will end the world. Iran isn't worth it.

We had an opportunity in 9-11 to do something meaningful,
But Bush is such a cock that he blew it.

Bush's cockedness in this case *was* his attempt to shock and awe, not the lack of shock and awe. Shock and awe and violence are proven to be exceedingly less effective in the WoT.

Bush is shocking and awful. That he got reelected has really shacken my faith in my country. What a fucking crook.

This fucking dissertation is killing me.

That's a good reason to bomb Iran.

Well if you're right I don't have to finish this thing.

 

[Elissar]

Well Sadam was in a cave, I think we killed Uday and Usay via a bomb.

Saddam was in a hole, and uday and usay were killed care of the good old US Army Infantry. One of the guys i work with now was in the group that killed them, got hit with small arms fire and had to reclass to supply.

 

[welsh]

Many pardons Elli. I thought it was a bomb. Small arms fire? Jesus the airforce couldn't whack these two guys?

THere's a few billion dollars worth of tax revenue down the drain.

Sadam in a hole- I actually thought it was a well. A hole in the ground is basically a cave isn't it.
Oh never mind.

 

[Elissar]

Well, their was more than small arms fire directed AT the building that Uday and his brother were in, you know, grenades, AT4 high explosive anti armor rockets and such.. was a very solidly built building from what Sgt Snow told me.

 

[Paladin Solo]

Jesus the airforce couldn't whack these two guys?

Yeah but it would've have been as gusto.

And, I'm not entirely sure on this, but weren't they TIPPED off as to the whereabouts of Uday and Qusay? Sending the Air Force to bomb the shit out of a house without 100% reliable info can make for a lot of people's bad day.

 

[Lazarus Plus]

It's funny, because I was discussing history with a coworker and mentioned my theory that 9/11 will be remembered as the kick off for WW3.

He disagreed at first, then I said, "No, no, like the Treaty of Versailles started WWII."

His face clouded and he paused.

"Yeah, I know what you mean."

Permission to piss myself?

 

[welsh]

Historical triggers take time to happen.

World War I led to Kellogg Briand Pact led to Nuremburg War Crime Tribunals led to persecution of Nazis led growth of international criminal law and law against torture led to atrocities at Abu Grabass Prison.

All history is a matter of sequence and events. Work backword and it starts to look very path dependent. The problem is that all paths are dependent- and therefore none are. Any event could be the trigger for a later event.

(No this is not the butterfly flaps its wings and there is a storm in England, or a cow farts and the ozone layer collapses- that's different.)

But if history is determined, the future is not. For example, if W used 9-11 to push the US to war with Iraq, W also used 9-11 to remove the Taliban in Afghanistan. The first we may dislike, but most people are happy with how things turned out in Afghanistan.

Could W have used 9-11 to mobilize support, both US and international, for other purposes? Perhaps.

That he didn't and made a mess of things basicallly squandered an opportunity.

So will it be 9-11 that triggers World War 3 or was it W being a dumbass and the American people giving him another four years to fuck the country even more?

Compare to Versailles- The Versailles Treaty was a consequence of the political interests of those in attendence to redistribute political power in Europe, and primarily to punish Germany so it was no longer a threat. The powers didn't have to go that way. Much as Lincoln wanted to avoid costly recovery of the Civil War, Wilson wanted to a different platform of rules. Instead, they created a treaty and thereby a list of policies that pushed Germany towards war. In that way the informal institutions and social relationships created by the Versailles Treaty created a redistribution of power that propelled the war.

But there is a difference between social institutions and personal choices.

Did W have to go to Iraq?

I am even more symathetic to the origins of World War 1. If we could argue that the death of the Archduke in Sarajevo led to World War 1 (trigger event), than we might ask
(1) did Austria have to declare an ultimatum
(2) did Russia have defend Serbia
(3) did Germany have to come to Austria's aid
(4) did France have to come to Russian aid
(5) did Germany have to invade Frence through Belgium
(6) did the UK have to come to the aid of France and Belgium.

But prior to World War 1 the countries had entangled themselves in such a structure of international agreements and alliances that toe breach an agreement would have upset the balance and reduced the confidence of any breaching country.

Furthermore, all the countries thought the war would be quick and that if they didn't mobilize fast enough, than the war would go badly for them. SO there was a race to a quick war.

Back to W and more importantly Iran.

(1) If a treaty system exists that protects Iran, no one knows about it.
(2) national security interests of any country are not at significant risk.
(3) There is a rush to war as the Iranians seems intent on getting the bomb.
Compare to World War 2

(1) Iran has been a rogue state for a long time, and is fairly isolated. It has suffered great political pain over the past few decades (Like Germany through the 1930s). There is reason for Iran to build the bomb- it must safeguard its own national security. But there is also a lot of discontent within Iran about the nature of politics. WHile, like Germany, the government has been hijacked by a small group of leaders driven by an ideology, this group lacks a popular mandate. Furthermore, unlike Germany, Iran has yet to build a strong set of allies. Militarily, I am rather confident the Iranians have been rebuilding, but have they been building enough to defend themselves? Doubtful. If anything the Iranians have shown a habit to bluster but do little (Persian Gulf War 1 and War 2).

This might have more to do with W's Axis of Evil speech than anything else.

Historically Iran has been placed in a position of regional dominance. If Saudia Arabia has been the economic heavy weight, Iran under the shah was the frontline against Soviet agression. So its not unusual that Iran is tinkering wtih Afghanistan, Iraq and other regional countries.

The only real question that seems to matter is whether any country will come to Iran's protection and whether the US is willing to pay the price for this war. It seems the US is willing, and I doubt anyone will protect Iran.

If I was Iranian, I would stockpile food and water and start digging a fallout shelter.

That said, if 9-11 remains historically important as a trigger, it's not what choices were foreclosed because of the structure of politics. There were few choices that were foreclosed and many opportunities for W. The real debacle was how W fucked it all up.

 

[Brother None]

Hmmm...

I see such a paradigm shift here.

Ok, welsh, what do you think about this article, Facing Down Iran.

Some stuff since the whole is pretty long:

Four years into the “war on terror,” the Bush administration has begun promoting a new formulation: “the long war.” Not a reassuring name. In a short war, put your money on tanks and bombs—our strengths. In a long war, the better bet is will and manpower—their strengths, and our great weakness. Even a loser can win when he’s up against a defeatist. A big chunk of Western civilization, consciously or otherwise, has given the impression that it’s dying to surrender to somebody, anybody. Reasonably enough, Islam figures: Hey, why not us? If you add to the advantages of will and manpower a nuclear capability, the odds shift dramatically.

What, after all, is the issue underpinning every little goofy incident in the news, from those Danish cartoons of Mohammed to recommendations for polygamy by official commissions in Canada to the banning of the English flag in English prisons because it’s an insensitive “crusader” emblem, to the introduction of gender-segregated swimming sessions in municipal pools in Puget Sound? In a word, sovereignty. There is no god but Allah, and thus there is no jurisdiction but Allah’s. Ayatollah Khomeini saw himself not as the leader of a geographical polity but as a leader of a communal one: Islam. Once those urbane socialist émigrés were either dead or on the plane back to Paris, Iran’s nominally “temporal” government took the same view, too: its role is not merely to run national highway departments and education ministries but to advance the cause of Islam worldwide.

<hr>

So the question is: Will they do it?

And the minute you have to ask, you know the answer. If, say, Norway or Ireland acquired nuclear weapons, we might regret the “proliferation,” but we wouldn’t have to contemplate mushroom clouds over neighboring states. In that sense, the civilized world has already lost: to enter into negotiations with a jurisdiction headed by a Holocaust-denying millenarian nut job is, in itself, an act of profound weakness—the first concession, regardless of what weaselly settlement might eventually emerge.

Conversely, a key reason to stop Iran is to demonstrate that we can still muster the will to do so. Instead, the striking characteristic of the long diplomatic dance that brought us to this moment is how September 10th it’s all been. The free world’s delegated negotiators (the European Union) and transnational institutions (the IAEA) have continually given the impression that they’d be content just to boot it down the road to next year or the year after or find some arrangement—this decade’s Oil-for-Food or North Korean deal—that would get them off the hook. If you talk to EU foreign ministers, they’ve already psychologically accepted a nuclear Iran. Indeed, the chief characteristic of the West’s reaction to Iran’s nuclearization has been an enervated fatalism.

Back when nuclear weapons were an elite club of five relatively sane world powers, your average Western progressive was convinced the planet was about to go ka-boom any minute. The mushroom cloud was one of the most familiar images in the culture, a recurring feature of novels and album covers and movie posters. There were bestselling dystopian picture books for children, in which the handful of survivors spent their last days walking in a nuclear winter wonderland. Now a state openly committed to the annihilation of a neighboring nation has nukes, and we shrug: Can’t be helped. Just the way things are. One hears sophisticated arguments that perhaps the best thing is to let everyone get ’em, and then no one will use them. And if Iran’s head of state happens to threaten to wipe Israel off the map, we should understand that this is a rhetorical stylistic device that’s part of the Persian oral narrative tradition, and it would be a grossly Eurocentric misinterpretation to take it literally.

<hr>

Once again, we face a choice between bad and worse options. There can be no “surgical” strike in any meaningful sense: Iran’s clients on the ground will retaliate in Iraq, Lebanon, Israel, and Europe. Nor should we put much stock in the country’s allegedly “pro-American” youth. This shouldn’t be a touchy-feely nation-building exercise: rehabilitation may be a bonus, but the primary objective should be punishment—and incarceration. It’s up to the Iranian people how nutty a government they want to live with, but extraterritorial nuttiness has to be shown not to pay. That means swift, massive, devastating force that decapitates the regime—but no occupation.

The cost of de-nuking Iran will be high now but significantly higher with every year it’s postponed. The lesson of the Danish cartoons is the clearest reminder that what is at stake here is the credibility of our civilization. Whether or not we end the nuclearization of the Islamic Republic will be an act that defines our time.

 

[Paladin Solo]

Pro-American youth?

I suppose the burning of U.S. flags and condemning every American man, woman, and child to hell is "pro-American?"