Chris Avellone leaves Obsidian
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This makes me more excited for the possibility of another Obsidian Fallout.
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How come? Didn't New Vegas make Bethesda a lot of money?
Yes, but since Bethesda fucked Obsidian over royalties, the two aren't in very amicable terms. Diplomatically, it was all fine on the surface, but under it was a bit different. Besides, Obsidian associated themselves with Fargo and his work, who openly criticized Bethesda for the said controversy, among other things.
However, that all wouldn't be all that much of a problem - if Bethesda was satisfied with the product. FNV sold well, but it didn't go all that well with Bethesda's target audience. Their main criticism was that it wasn't, well, Fallout 3. A dumbed-down sandbox shooter. Bethesda may make shitty games, but they know how to make money off those. Commissioning another studio to make a game which would fail to satisfy their core audience probably isn't a very profitable move. In reality, any new game with a Fallout title would sell well, but I believe Bethesda would like to keep their creative force behind those and make it their own way - which is something FO4 seems to affirm - from what we have seen from previews, Bethesda hasn't really learned anything from Obsidian and will probably keep doing things their own way in the future. Fallout 4 will be what FO3 fans are craving for, since most of them were unsatisfied with FNV. Bethesda making another experiment of doing a game which would satisfy niche more is highly unlikely.
As for Tim Cain, he is certainly important in Fallout history, but I don't think he would have much say now. AFAIK, he is now a "regular programmer" at Obsidian, not a lead designer or anything, and is satisfied with his position - though I could be very wrong about this one.
That being said, Bethesda could probably decide to allow another studio to make another spinoff - they allowed one to be made for iPhone, after all - but the said studio being Obsidian is not very likely. Not to mention that most of the creative force behind FNV has already left Obsidian (and I'm not talking about MCA) and Obsidian seems to be focusing on more "mainstream" titles - see Armored Warfare - so I don't think there's much hope that we would have a proper "FNV2" on our hands ever.
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Emperor
Simplesmente Rajuma
The Decline has reached Obsidian 
So the Fallout 3 plebs are holding back the possibility of a New Vegas 2. Damn.
How do you know this? I see people claiming it every once in a while, but I personally *never* have read any statement like that from anyone Obsidian or Bethesda related. As far as I can remember, random people and the press were the only ones blowing this shit up like a sex doll.
Your second point seem weak to me too. It is said New Vegas sold a lot more than Fo3 and Bethesda is a publisher who wants to make money. I'll doubt they let a few dumbfucks decide if New Vegas was better or worse than Fo3 and worthy to exist - in fact, the reviews were mostly pretty positive on release (even if not 85% on metacritics), and as far as my experience goes, this is what matters.
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I think that whole royalty thing comes from Obsidian missing the 85% on Metacritics and thus a bonus.
Yes, but we don't know what kind of internal impact this had between Obsidian and Bethesda. Besides, Obsidian signed the contract, so from their side there is no reason to be mad at Bethesda. They missed it by 1%, life sucks, but a contract is a contract.
Mohamed2001
HATE NEWSPAPERS
There's more dirty details to the 1% than just a contract...
Aha, then please enlighten me.
Mohamed2001
HATE NEWSPAPERS
Metacritic is one of the worst places you do a contract like this. I wonder if Obsidian knew about that.
Details. We want Details!
Press blew it, mostly, but there was disappointment on Obsidian side. Tweets, mentions in some interviews. Never did they openly state "Bethesda fucked us up", no, but nobody expected that. The closest that got to an direct implication was Fargo basically saying that Bethesda fucked Obsidian over royalties which they deserved because of their hardwork. He may not be part of Obsidian, but he is closely related. Not that it matters much, but it is essentially reflecting how Obsidian guys must have felt. That doesn't exclude the possibility of another contract being made, but...read on.
Not necessarily. FNV sold well mostly on the merit of it being a Fallout title. Majority of customers expected another FO3, and were disappointed. When they got disappointed, it was already too late because, hey, they already made a purchase.
However, Bethesda virtually took none of the improvements FNV made and implemented them in FO4 (or so it seems so far). It seems that they are taking the series in completely different direction than Obsidian wished they would. If Obsidian would hypothetically get another contract, would they be able to make another game that is RPG in its core like FNV, or would it have to be closer to Bethesda vision? More importantly, would Bethesda allow two "RPGs", which bear the name of the same franchise, to be made and to be so different? Again?
The point is - it is not impossible for Obsidian to make another Fallout, but it is unlikely that it would be anything like FNV. Bethesda didn't like FNV as well as most of their customers and they don't want another FNV. They want FO3. Obsidian could get to make another spinoff, but it would be in vein of Bethesda's games, because that's what customers want and that will sell well. It is also worth mentioning that most (if not all) of FNV's writers have left Obsidian already.
Of course, I'm only hypothesizing right now, but I have no hopes we will see another proper Fallout ever. FNV was the closest we will ever get. First indication? Wait to see the sales figures of FO4, wait for reviews and wait for fan reaction and comparison with FNV. That's what matters.
FearMonkey
Vault Senior Citizen
Every time this thread is bumped I think it means that we've more news about where MCA ended up and then I'm disappointed. 
Walpknut
This ghoul has seen it all
Who says most of the talent behind New Vegas left the company? Eric Fenstermaker worked and wrote a huge chunks of the game and a lot of the more memorable characters and he still works there. Similarly Sawyer was the Project director and Lead Designer for New Vegas and we know he is still there. Now with the added bonus of Tim Cain working there I don't think we would have to worry too much on that front if we are to talk about an hypotetic second Obsi-Fallout.
http://fallout.gamepedia.com/Fallout:_New_Vegas_developers
Aside from Eric, a huge number of people in the Design department left, namely writers. John Gonzales, who was a lead writer, left, as well as MCA.
As for JES, he is still there, but he was a designer behind the game mechanics - writing wasn't his main duty. FNV is his brainchild when it comes to gameplay, but it was not written by him.
Walpknut
This ghoul has seen it all
No, Vegas was hsi brain child when it came to story concept, scope of the world, number of companions, etc. He was the lead director, not just the weapon balancer. He even designed specific characters. He was in charge of putting people in tasks that where planned out by him and the design team, it's not like Gonzales came up with the whole story of the game by himself and Sawyer left him just do whatever.
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PossibleCabbage
Vault 22 Survivor
Presumably if Bethesda were to want another West Coast Fallout from folks with Fallout cred, and they offered a deal to Obsidian to make the game, the publishing contract would come with a sufficiently large pile of money to develop an AAA game, which would mean Obsidian would need to expand back to near the size they used to be. So it's not as though some of the FNV folks who have left couldn't be rehired on a contractual if not permanent basis.
I mean, Avellone is a free agent right now, and I got the idea that he left Obsidian since other studios had more for him to do than Obsidian did.
I think Bethesda has to realize there's value in the "West Coast Fallout" brand.
I mean, Avellone is a free agent right now, and I got the idea that he left Obsidian since other studios had more for him to do than Obsidian did.
I think Bethesda has to realize there's value in the "West Coast Fallout" brand.