Autoduel76 said:
Really? Then please tell me how much you imagine you'd have to sell a month to stay in the top-25.
Fallout 3, who is this for?
- Thread starter Brother None
- Start date
Really? Then please tell me how much you imagine you'd have to sell a month to stay in the top-25.
Autoduel76
Look, Ma! Two Heads!
Brother None said:
Yes, its a bit off topic now. However, I do stand by that statement. Again, that is assuming 90%+ reviews for Fallout 3, like Oblivion got.
I think you are putting a big overemphasis on the difference between a Fantasy RPG and a Sci-Fi/Post apoc one. Maybe its a difference of culture thing, but in America I would argue that Sci-Fi is more popular.
I also think you are putting too much into there being a lot of RPGs for consoles by the time that Fallout 3 hits when, in reality there will only be around 4, including Oblivion.
There will be a few Japanese RPGs too, but, those don't sell as well on the Xbox as the other consoles and I also don't think that they directly compete with Western RPGs as much as you are thinking.
I absolutely stand by it. I was also being very pessimistic with my "double userbase" prediction, IMO. Keep in mind that both the 360 and PS3 are ridiculously priced at the moment and most people are expecting price drops for both systems by this Christmas. I expect one of those consoles to really take off, at some point, like the PS2 did last generation. The userbase could easily be 3, or more, times the combined 10 miliion that it is now by Fall '08. And Fallout 3 could easily fall to Winter as well, putting it through another Christmas season of console sales to boost the userbases.
Brother None said:
I'd be suprised if it was under 30,000.
Autoduel76 said:
Oh? Name me one Sci-Fi cRPG that outsold Morrowind. Or even more than Baldur's Gate? Best-selling consolde cRPG? Final Fantasy. The only top-selling Sci-Fi PC game I know of is Starcraft. What other games are there? WoW? EverQuest? Myst?
Autoduel76 said:
You gotta look at it wider than that. RPG, RPGesque, games in the same genre, in the same setting, it doesn't metter, the market is more satiety.
Autoduel76 said:
Wait, hold up there, you actually think there's a *direct* correlation between userbase and sales? Do you realise the two Diablos combined for 17 million sales PC-only, where TES III and IV combined for 7 million on a much bigger market. There is no bigger market = more sales logic. It can, but it doesn't always.
Just to make a point about mouth-propaganda vs. magazines.
Ever heard of the sims? - I would dare to say, that a lot of it's audience didn't get informed of it because of game-magazines or gaming-newssites etc. but because of mouth propaganda.
At least i don't remember having seen to much of coverage in the net nor in the gaming magazines.
But even when (i mean sometimes my memory is really bad), i don't think the 'normal girl' wich is a huge selling point as i know, read such things...
Sure advertisment (and gaming magazines are nothing more today) help to sell units. But also does mouth-propagand help a much, or also can destroy the positive advertisment effect (who should i trust? the capitalist company making advertisment or my best-friend telling me this company and this game especially sucks?).
It's true that mostly the first weeks are most important for a selling success, but as said. Negative mouth-propaganda against positiv-advertisment, man, i would bet for the mouth-propaganda.
But to be true, it seems as if F3 will get also a lot of positive mouth-propaganda because of people who never played Fallout 1 & 2, dislike turnbased/iso perspective games and so on...
Or for wich only story matters (if i ever get rich, i will buy the TES franchise and only making interactive movies where you have to press 'next', and also any other 'Story-game' you liked, just to show you how 'stupid' your point is ;P)...
So let us wait and have a nice cup of coffee instead of discussion how it will went. I mean my 8ball dropped, so i can't take part *sniff*
Ever heard of the sims? - I would dare to say, that a lot of it's audience didn't get informed of it because of game-magazines or gaming-newssites etc. but because of mouth propaganda.
At least i don't remember having seen to much of coverage in the net nor in the gaming magazines.
But even when (i mean sometimes my memory is really bad), i don't think the 'normal girl' wich is a huge selling point as i know, read such things...
Sure advertisment (and gaming magazines are nothing more today) help to sell units. But also does mouth-propagand help a much, or also can destroy the positive advertisment effect (who should i trust? the capitalist company making advertisment or my best-friend telling me this company and this game especially sucks?).
It's true that mostly the first weeks are most important for a selling success, but as said. Negative mouth-propaganda against positiv-advertisment, man, i would bet for the mouth-propaganda.
But to be true, it seems as if F3 will get also a lot of positive mouth-propaganda because of people who never played Fallout 1 & 2, dislike turnbased/iso perspective games and so on...
Or for wich only story matters (if i ever get rich, i will buy the TES franchise and only making interactive movies where you have to press 'next', and also any other 'Story-game' you liked, just to show you how 'stupid' your point is ;P)...
So let us wait and have a nice cup of coffee instead of discussion how it will went. I mean my 8ball dropped, so i can't take part *sniff*
Autoduel76
Look, Ma! Two Heads!
Brother None said:
I said that Sci-Fi was more popular than fantasy, here in the states, not really keeping it specifically to RPGs and, especially not keeping it specifically for PCs, from how this conversation started. And I think it kind of speaks for itself, with games like Knights of the Old Republic, Gears of War, Halo, Lost Planet, Perfect Dark Zero all being million sellers on Xbox/Xbox 360 consoles.
Now you can argue that they just make more Sci-Fi games than fantasy, for the Xbox. Maybe so. But they aren't lacking in popularity.
Brother None said:
I agree with this, as I mentioned above. And yes, it will be more satturated at that point.
Brother None said:
Direct correlation? Well, not in the sense that you can quanitfy an exact number, or even percentage that you are garaunteed to get with an expanded userbase. But the fact that it could be triple, or more, can't be considered anything but a good thing as far as getting additional sales.
The thing is that people liked Oblivion. Obviously not most people on this site. And yes, many Morrowind fans didn't like it either. But, as a whole, the majority of people that actually bought Oblivion liked it. You can find that by going anywhere from Gamerankings to Gamespot to Amazon.com and simply looking at the user reviews (not even the overhyped/paid for media reviews) you see that the people that played it liked it.
You seem to be attributing its success only to the hype, or the lack of games (fantasy/RPG, or whatever). If they were the case I don't think you'd see such a positive response from the people that actually bought it.
And why would I assume that those same people are not going to be interested in another game by that developer they like? Because of negative word of mouth? Well, unless that word of mouth is about more than the plight of the Fallout fanbase, or more than the complaints that people have about Oblivion's lack of depth, I don't see it matterring much.
"Oblivion with guns"? Cool. They liked Oblivion. Based on the types of games that sell well on consoles, they probably like guns too.
As long as they read the previews and reviews, and the game sounds cool to them, they'll probably buy it. So yeah, I think that there would be much more damage done to Fallout 3's sales if it were to get poor reviews from the major gaming media than negative word of mouth.
And I think that, with more consoles in people's homes, and a large base of people that enjoyed Oblivion, it will even outsell Oblivion, if it gets 90%+ reviews everywhere and game of theyear awards.
Bad_Karma said:
Well, actually the Sims got great reviews and, not only that but, the Sims got MORE publicity than any hardcore game ever gets. I don't know how it was everywhere, but here in the States the Sims got reviews on National News, and entertainment shows and mainstream magazines that aren't videogame related like Entertainment Weekly.
Thank you, Brother None, for your article on Fallout 3. I’ve visited NMA over the years, but haven’t felt compelled to join the forums until I read what you had to say.
I’m mostly ignorant as to the opinions of the FO fan community on Bethesda’s attempt at a third installment, but from what little I have seen, it looks like it’s largely pessimistic. I think Brother None did a great job highlighting exactly why this position is merited… I mean, I liked Morrowind, and enjoyed Oblivion as well (despite both games, especially Oblivion, being almost completely vacuous). But these games were merely diversions in what has become a dearth of good RPG games (one could go as far to say good games in general)… They were fun, but they aren’t even in the same league as Baldur’s Gate, Planescape Torment, Fallout, etc... Not really even in the same genre
I remember playing Oblivion and just laughing aloud at how completely stupid various parts of the game were… Bethesda hyped “Radiant AI” or whatever it was called… It’s going to be amazing, people talk, have jobs, and interact with the environment! They’ll be just like real people!... I guess I wasn’t aware that husbands have the same conversations about mudcrabs and the Fighter’s Guild with their wives every single day. Nor was I aware that persuading people just involves threatening, bribing, humoring, and complimenting all in the same conversation, repeatedly, until you win them over (okay, okay, I’m not being completely fair: you have to do it in the right order… Of course some people like to be humored THEN threatened, not the other way around). The list goes on and on… You have to question whether the characters in the game exhibit anything that could even remotely be called "human traits," as it seems they are just mindless automatons content to repeat the same retarded dialogues about Kvatch. Actually, there is a really funny article if anyone is interested: http://www.somethingawful.com/d/news/asshole-physics-meet.php.
So, bearing Bethesda’s track record in mind, I am very wary about FO3. From what Brother None has reported, these fears are not the least bit unfounded. Bethesda makes fun games with masturbatory graphics (actually, that might not even be true; remember how ugly the faces were in Oblivion?), but not RPGs with deep and significant content. There is no way a game in the style of Oblivion can capture the essence of what made me love FO1 and FO2. The studio seems like lack a basic understanding of what made Fallout a cult classic. Yes, I am nostalgic about turn-based combat, the isometric perspective, etc., but I don’t really take issue with deviating from this type of gameplay… What galls me is that there is this disconnect on the part of Bethesda regarding the soul of the game: the combination of plot, dialogue, characters, humor, and different paths you could take that made FO so great.
--Fixed link /Per
I’m mostly ignorant as to the opinions of the FO fan community on Bethesda’s attempt at a third installment, but from what little I have seen, it looks like it’s largely pessimistic. I think Brother None did a great job highlighting exactly why this position is merited… I mean, I liked Morrowind, and enjoyed Oblivion as well (despite both games, especially Oblivion, being almost completely vacuous). But these games were merely diversions in what has become a dearth of good RPG games (one could go as far to say good games in general)… They were fun, but they aren’t even in the same league as Baldur’s Gate, Planescape Torment, Fallout, etc... Not really even in the same genre
I remember playing Oblivion and just laughing aloud at how completely stupid various parts of the game were… Bethesda hyped “Radiant AI” or whatever it was called… It’s going to be amazing, people talk, have jobs, and interact with the environment! They’ll be just like real people!... I guess I wasn’t aware that husbands have the same conversations about mudcrabs and the Fighter’s Guild with their wives every single day. Nor was I aware that persuading people just involves threatening, bribing, humoring, and complimenting all in the same conversation, repeatedly, until you win them over (okay, okay, I’m not being completely fair: you have to do it in the right order… Of course some people like to be humored THEN threatened, not the other way around). The list goes on and on… You have to question whether the characters in the game exhibit anything that could even remotely be called "human traits," as it seems they are just mindless automatons content to repeat the same retarded dialogues about Kvatch. Actually, there is a really funny article if anyone is interested: http://www.somethingawful.com/d/news/asshole-physics-meet.php.
So, bearing Bethesda’s track record in mind, I am very wary about FO3. From what Brother None has reported, these fears are not the least bit unfounded. Bethesda makes fun games with masturbatory graphics (actually, that might not even be true; remember how ugly the faces were in Oblivion?), but not RPGs with deep and significant content. There is no way a game in the style of Oblivion can capture the essence of what made me love FO1 and FO2. The studio seems like lack a basic understanding of what made Fallout a cult classic. Yes, I am nostalgic about turn-based combat, the isometric perspective, etc., but I don’t really take issue with deviating from this type of gameplay… What galls me is that there is this disconnect on the part of Bethesda regarding the soul of the game: the combination of plot, dialogue, characters, humor, and different paths you could take that made FO so great.
--Fixed link /Per
Sorrow
So Old I'm Losing Radiation Signs
It's pretty ironic that game about living a virtual life - which isn't healthy IMO, gets better opinions that real games.Autoduel76 said:
Oh, and being from the states... I think it's a bit facetious to say sci-fi is more popular than fantasy. You're mixing up cause and effect here.
The sci-fi games you listed (with the exception of KOTR) sell well because of they are a certain TYPE of game. Mainly: shooters or some action derivative. More action games are made in the sci-fi genre. There is a bigger market for action games than there is for RPGs... Meanwhile, almost all fantasy games are RPGs (in fact, most people think that if it's fantasy, it has to be an RPG). Thus, more sci-fi games sell, but not because they are sci-fi per se.
The sci-fi games you listed (with the exception of KOTR) sell well because of they are a certain TYPE of game. Mainly: shooters or some action derivative. More action games are made in the sci-fi genre. There is a bigger market for action games than there is for RPGs... Meanwhile, almost all fantasy games are RPGs (in fact, most people think that if it's fantasy, it has to be an RPG). Thus, more sci-fi games sell, but not because they are sci-fi per se.
Autoduel76
Look, Ma! Two Heads!
Like I said, I think you could argue that cause. I was just saying that a sci-fi setting is very popular here.
Though I'll also throw out that there are more Sci-Fi movies and TV shows, and cartoons, here in the states as well.
Sci-Fi is more socially acceptable here, as most Americans think of RPGs and renaissance fairs when they see Fantasy.
Though I'll also throw out that there are more Sci-Fi movies and TV shows, and cartoons, here in the states as well.
Sci-Fi is more socially acceptable here, as most Americans think of RPGs and renaissance fairs when they see Fantasy.
Autoduel, please shut up about "in the States" okay? Lets leave your subjective perception out of this. I live in the States myself, and I find myself disagreeing with the following point whenever it is something you have prefaced with "In the States."
Autoduel76
Look, Ma! Two Heads!
Tannhauser said:
That's weird that you would disagree with everything I'd say there, considering it wasn't opinion
Autoduel76 said:
Uh, yeah, *I* liked Oblivion, but I'd put up a wager that most people that bought Oblivion don't care a whit for any kind of brand loyalty, and rarely even know the name "Bethesda" (casual gamers tend not to care what company fabricated what). Could it sell to them, if they like Oblivion with Guns? Well, that's based on two assumptions, namely that they're not just big fans of fantasy (not all console gamers play all console games) and that Bethesda can market it as Oblivion with Guns, which they can't because except for people like Tor, that'd mean a media backlash, not to mention the even further increased word of mouth.
Considering how incredibly full of spurious assumptions that whole little talk was (and I hope we don't have to continue on the topic of SF, and you see that your claim that fantasy is outsold by SF in RPGs is (again) ridiculous), I won't really go into it deeper. Suffice to say you will be proven wrong, and we'll all wait with bated breath for the news bit that Oblivion (excluding PS3) outsold Morrowind.
That said;
Autoduel76 said:
You realise this point, which is what I guess all of this was about, was never valid, because they're not mutually exclusive, and you must really think we're new at this if you don't think we've been doing *both*.
But hey, if you can name a brilliant way to convince the corrupt, exclusivity-deal-based magazine circuit to break off with one of their moneymakers, please name it.
Autoduel76
Look, Ma! Two Heads!
Brother None said:
So, you've spent this entire time arguing a side point to a post that was making a point that you don't even disagree with...
Par for the course, I suppose.
-"Hate the post, not the poster"
Autoduel76 said:
Ah yes, I've spent this entire time arguing...
Wait, I've spent this entire time arguing? Impressive, I don't know I was doing it all by myself.
Yes, I thought it more amusing to derail your entire line of thinking before pointing out the entire basis was false. So shoot me. Now make some brilliant suggestions on convincing gaming reviewers. I know the best sailors usually are on shore, but back-bench talk is just annoying.
PS: it *is* funny how your timing follows exactly with Omega's. Two archaic peas in a pod, still thinking in old marketing terms.
requiem_for_a_starfury
So Old I'm Losing Radiation Signs
4 years! What country? In the UK you'd be very lucky to find a game still available a year after it's release. Many shops take them off the shelves after 4 months, unless it's top of the charts. Often the only old games you'll see are in clearance sales, pre-owned or budget re-releases.Brother None said:
Sure there's still the internet, but how many casual gamers order games off of the internet?
GAME are offering the 360 version of Oblivion as part of their two games for £40 pounds deal. Even if you buy it seperately it's only £29.99, that's £15 - £20 cheaper than a new release.
Well, that's not surprising, it is a year old, requiem. Never heard of a year-old game selling at full price.
Yeah, shelf life is indeed normally 4 months, 'cept apparently for Morrowind. Wonder what kept its sales up...expansions?
Yeah, shelf life is indeed normally 4 months, 'cept apparently for Morrowind. Wonder what kept its sales up...expansions?
Side-stepping the issue much?Autoduel76 said:
In this case, The Sims got that publicity after the game was well on its way towards becoming the best-selling game of all time. Before release, Electronics Arts had thought that the game would be a flop, and didn't put very much money into publicizing it for that reason. The success of The Sims had very little to do with EA's marketing campaign, and the main-stream media only picked up the story after the game became phenomenally popular.
So I disagree with you, quite a bit, even if your basic facts are correct.
SimpleMinded
Vault Fossil
For references, www.VGchartz.com tends to be pretty accurate with sales figures (when it's not, it updates with NPD data etc) and according to its numbers, Morrowind sold 1.83 million copies for consoles (http://vgchartz.com/worldtotals.php?name=morrowind&console=&publisher=&sort=Total)
and Oblivion has sold 1.63 million (http://vgchartz.com/worldtotals.php?name=oblivion&console=&publisher=&sort=Total).
Anyways, who really cares? Oblivion was crap, Morrowind was crap.
Also, on the issue of being in the top 25 for sales monthly still. I don't think that amounts to much as in the PC market, only the very new releases sell well in their first month and the rest of the top 25 likely don't move that huge of numbers.
For further reference, on consoles right now: Oblivion is selling around 6k copies a week on X360 and 5k on PS3
and Oblivion has sold 1.63 million (http://vgchartz.com/worldtotals.php?name=oblivion&console=&publisher=&sort=Total).
Anyways, who really cares? Oblivion was crap, Morrowind was crap.
Also, on the issue of being in the top 25 for sales monthly still. I don't think that amounts to much as in the PC market, only the very new releases sell well in their first month and the rest of the top 25 likely don't move that huge of numbers.
For further reference, on consoles right now: Oblivion is selling around 6k copies a week on X360 and 5k on PS3
Autoduel76 said:
Actually what he said he disagrees with IS your opinion. You can't speak for all of America. I live in 'the states' and 99% of the people I know would rather play Fantasy then Sci-Fi, but unlike you I won't assume all Americans are the same.
Either way, Look it up and compare sales records chief, you'll learn fast how wrong you are. You also have to account for the amount of Sci-Fi released here vs Fantasy, AND factor in the fact that TONS of people have games imported that are never released state side.... I'd wager most are Fantasy....
As for your crap about Sci-Fi movies, you can't really use that as a fair comparison here. Sci-Fi is more popular as a Movie simply because of the Special Effects I'd wager (again not fact, just observation).
Moot point i guess cause you'll just use your typical talk in circles technique to delude the point and make a sorry excuse to just keep repeating yourself over and over.
requiem_for_a_starfury
So Old I'm Losing Radiation Signs
Sorry don't know why I added about the price since that wasn't really my point.Brother None said:
Well it didn't use to be that way, it's only in the last couple of years that games have gotten pruned so quickly. I mean they were still selling original releases of Fallout 2 around my way in 2001. Now though if you don't buy the game when it first comes out it's a lot harder to get hold of. Which virtually eliminates the casual sale.Brother None said: