Uh...so a high-profile game from a high-profile company isn't going to sell enough of their title on its own merits to keep their company going?
Bullshit. Then there's also the point of expansions, which should add something other than munchkinism to the game. NONE OF THESE OFFER ANY REAL ADDITION TO THE GAME. They are, in fact, more like Unreal map assets that don't offer anything more than what a modder could offer, and that is where this crappy marketing idea fails. A CRPG might take longer to design, but charging for what amounts to a skin and a couple of map packs is fucking insane.
The problem now stands of companies centering their development around marketing schemes instead of design that keeps people interested. And we now see where said development schemes lead.
Epic offers their bonus materials for free, because the game can sell on its own, and this act often spotlights community developers. This in turn brings in a larger audience, etc.
So, in short, I guess I have to agree with you that once everyone finds out how dubious Bethesda's claims were for Oblivion, Bethesda will pretty much REQUIRE charging their OCD victims for new "content" to replace the lost sales.
Then Bethesda could also do something else. Tone down the amount spent on hype and instead work on making a proper sequel, which helped Wizardry sell MILLIONS worldwide, regularly, because it was one of the best of its style (we'll leave the whole DimWit Bradley saga for another time). Word of mouth also helped to spread how well the game was recieved, the same with Ultima and others.
Bethesda is known, TES is known, etc.
So if Bethesda wants to make money, I can suggest that they cut most of the apparently useless development team, as a team of 1/5 the size (not counting artists) could make a far better product years ago than what this overhyped company can fail to implement. Again, the Shiny problem, and Shiny was sucking up a load of Interplay's assets without releasing much noteworthy, but were the highest paid development house for quite some time.
So instead of treating their customers like shit, Bethesda can cut the fat and learn how to design.