Planetary Resources

[TheWesDude]

DB and Pix, the problem is that downward part of the slope will happen in 10-20 years.

most energy information i see says that we hit the "peak oil" in late 2008, and they are surprised we havent hit that downward slope yet. at least last time i checked in like early 2010.

running out of oil is not the problem. thats why i said you were drinking the kool aid. because you keep talking about when the oil runs out.

yes, alternate sources of oil are important. so is trying to find more sources or else going for sources that are known but before were too "expensive" to get to.

consider the BP deep horizon well. the fact that oil and energy companies are willing to do wells that deep and in locations that are inherently dangerous like hurricanes...

the oil and energy companies are getting desperate. if the oil and energy companies are getting desperate and trying for sources that before were considered not worth it, that should tell you how serious this is. they are desperate and in a panic over oil, the question is why arent you?

 

[Crni Vuk]

fact is we should be already out of any oil if you believe charts and valuations from the 40s and 50s. So I would be cautious with such "we will run out of oil soon!" predictions. Which doesn't mean that we should not look for alternatives.

 

[DammitBoy]

most energy information i see says that we hit the "peak oil" in late 2008, and they are surprised we havent hit that downward slope yet...

That's because your "experts" are idiots and they are wrong. Same as the idiots who said we would have another ice age, before the same "experts" changed their minds and now claim we are causing global warming.

Same as the idiots who said we would have a global crisis for lack of food and everybody in India/Africa would die.

The problem for these tards is that they fail to take into consideration the advances in technology that allow us to avoid the problems they think are coming based on past data.

Like the whole "the world is going to starve to death" meme, which was averted by modern farming techniques and modern plant genetics used to create better wheat.

The fact's are; new sources of oil have been discovered with new technology that didn't exist when your "expert" doomsayers were predicting there was no more oil to be found. Oil that could not be reached, can now be reached. Oil that was too expensive to extract, can now be extracted.

Or, like the whole "mini-ice age" crisis - your "experts" were just plain wrong...

 

[TheWesDude]

yes, because they are building and doing all this deep sea drilling and oil rigs for the science/challenge.

they are trying to prolong the time it takes to hit the downward slope.

here is another tidbit for you. since the early 2000s, Saudi Arabia and other opec countries have not allowed independent researchers to inspect their wells. one of the primary things they would be inspecting is the water output of their wells. you see, when a well starts to go "dry" they drill wells on the edges of the field and pump water down into it under great pressure to force the oil into the central wells. it allows a measurement of how close to going dry a well is and a method of estimation of how much oil it has left in it. and the major oil fields in the world are not letting people see/measure/know those numbers.

 

[DammitBoy]

yes, because they are building and doing all this deep sea drilling and oil rigs for the science/challenge.

Who said that? They are doing it to find oil for profit, because it's profitable. Btw - deep sea drilling isn't that dramatic or the biggest part of the newest discoveries of oil.

There is newly discovered oil in the U.S. that is greater than all the oil reserves in saudi arabia. It wasn't found with deep sea drilling or oil rigs at all, it was found with new survey techniques and technology that didn't exist 10-15 years ago. Your data is outdated. New oil sources are found every year.

Furthermore, we have huge natural gas reserves, huge coal reserves, nuclear energy and alternative energy will improve with time. So, running around like a chicken with your head cut off about oil running out tomorrow, is false, silly, irrelevant, and not that helpful.

 

[Crni Vuk]

DB makes a fine point. Just look at the situation during the 1940s and compare it with today. Things improve all the time. And back then scientists thought we would be out of resources today as well. Thing is if we continue like now then we will run out of it at some point yes. But, and that is the part which plays an important role. We know about it. So new technology and more efficient machinery and ways for manufacturing are researched all the time.

The real problem is actually that we still have many areas where resources (not just oil) get wasted because of outdated technology or the company in charge doesn't care. Even in Germany there is still way to often clean water used in the industry where it is not necessary. But even that is changing slowly.

 

[TheWesDude]

DB, i hope you arent talking about shale oil.

shale oil is similar to biofuels.

biofuels are 1.5-3.0 ROI
shale oil is 1.7-2.5 ROI
oil is generally considered 20+
nuclear is generally considered 100+
hydrogen is considered between 0.7 to 0.95

hydrogen is the worst offender. the US Govt subsidizes ethanol and hydrogen so much, that approx 75% of the cost to "get" the energy is paid for by the govt in order to appear to be competitive with oil.

coal is 10-15 ROI ( lower for more effecient plants )
natural gas is 5-8 for homes, 9-13 for power plants.

 

[DammitBoy]

DB, i hope you arent talking about shale oil.

Of course not, don't be silly. I f I was discussing shale oil, I'd have posted, "shale oil".

I'm funny like that.

 

[TheWesDude]

then where was this new oil field found in the US?

 

[Crni Vuk]

maybe this here?

Massive Oil Deposit Could Increase US reserves by 10x

Also, we should not forget that there are many places on earth where we didnt even started yet to look for resources, simply because either the technology was not around or it was not profitable. Like the places where you have extreme conditions, in siberia.

And if really everything fails, we still have one area that is yet completely untouched. A whole continent full of resources.

The antarctic region with a huge land mass beneath it. Sure, at the moment there is not much of a chance to see any "serious" mining or drilling there. But, maybe in the future it might become a possibility when the prices are high enough and new technology being more environmental friendly. And the Antarctic Treaty System only goes till 2041.

We are sure not going to run out of resources. It will become eventually more expensive over time. But maybe not even that if things progress like they did in the past where everything becomes more efficient and where we try to find alternatives for some of the resources - see Arboform.


- I really get slowly the feeling that DB might be a pretty inteligent person.

 

[alec]

I'll repeat it so as not to tax your brain with having to remember it.

Why do you think mankind would regress back beyond say, 14th-16th century civilization, once all the oil sources are depleted?

Because mankind consists largely of people like you?

Put that in your pipe and smoke it.

By the way now that you mention "wise men", I guess all the greek/ancient philosophers have not been humans in your eyes (correct me if I am wrong), since they lacked our technology and resources?

Dude, your logic follows paths untravelled by most - for a good reason.

Of course the ancient Greeks were humans.

And the ancient Greeks weren't necessarily lacking our technology and resources - in a manner of speaking. It is, for instance, generally accepted among scholars nowadays that Greek Fire was based on petroleum, either crude or refined - quite similar to napalm. Other intriguing artifacts, such as the Antikythera Device, show us that they were capable of fine mechanics - the sort of fine mechanics that would only re-emerge after the renaissance. Gawd only knows what else they were already capable of. Blame the Arabs. They burned the library of Alexandria to the ground, condemning humanity to take 'a few' steps back.

That question being more or less answered, might I ask why you are confusing humans with humanity/mankind? Mankind/humanity covers a whole lot more than just the biological species, or are you not aware of that?

There is newly discovered oil in the U.S. that is greater than all the oil reserves in saudi arabia. It wasn't found with deep sea drilling or oil rigs at all, it was found with new survey techniques and technology that didn't exist 10-15 years ago. Your data is outdated. New oil sources are found every year.

I really do think that the word 'idiot' is appropriate here. I'm sorry, man, but it is. You must be living on another planet to write a thing like that, 'cause the whole bloody world is saying something else - except for the Arabs (who are lying for obvious economic reasons) and the Americans (who are, let's just say, different than other humans).

Also: proof or it didn't happen.

I really get slowly the feeling that DB might be a pretty inteligent person.

You are the one and only, I am sure.

 

[Crni Vuk]

well Alec, at least DB was not falling back to (somewhat) insults and bickering here.

 

[alec]

Sometimes, Crni Vuk, only one word conveys accurately that which one wishes to express: a donkey is a donkey, an ass is an ass.

 

[DammitBoy]

I'll repeat it so as not to tax your brain with having to remember it.

Why do you think mankind would regress back beyond say, 14th-16th century civilization, once all the oil sources are depleted?

Because mankind consists largely of people like you?

I see, in other words, you've got nothing, you're intellectually bankrupt, so you resort to insults instead of actually making your point with reason and logic. lol

ps - As to your second insult and personal attack...

http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs...equitur-facts/2012/03/14/gIQApP14CS_blog.html

http://www.snopes.com/politics/gasoline/bakken.asp

So, even ignoring the shale oil, that's a crapload of oil.

 

[Hassknecht]

Alec's a poet, after all. He doesn't need rhyme nor reason.

 

[TheWesDude]

The antarctic region with a huge land mass beneath it. Sure, at the moment there is not much of a chance to see any "serious" mining or drilling there. But, maybe in the future it might become a possibility when the prices are high enough and new technology being more environmental friendly. And the Antarctic Treaty System only goes till 2041.

yes, antartica has the largest coal deposits in the world.

and all governments have agreed to not farm it for resources as none "own" it.

the only way i see it working is if the UN allowed private companies to mine it under strict conditions independant of any single countries oversight without preference for selling to any nation.

good luck with that.

 

[donperkan]

DB those links describe optimistic estimates founded by your government. Estimates are far from reality.

 

[valcik]

No, DB is right. There are large deposits of oil uncovered all across the globe. I remember Norway Statoil announcing news about a big new deposit uncovered in October 2011, somewhere in the North Sea. Whilst googling for it, I ran across another interesting news:
http://www.cnbc.com/id/48701003

 

[alec]

I'll repeat it so as not to tax your brain with having to remember it.

Why do you think mankind would regress back beyond say, 14th-16th century civilization, once all the oil sources are depleted?

Because mankind consists largely of people like you?

I see, in other words, you've got nothing, you're intellectually bankrupt, so you resort to insults instead of actually making your point with reason and logic. lol

Oh you funny man, 'intellectualy bankrupt', that's a nice phrase, I like it. It is, however, as close to the truth as everything else you have been stating in this thread.

Why do I think mankind would regress back beyond say, 14th-16th century civilization, once all the oil sources are depleted?

Once all the oil sources are depleted is way too optimistical: regression will start before all the oil sources are depleted. Agriculture/food distribution/conservation of food/medical help/pharmacology/... all these domains will suffer once oil gets more rare/difficult to obtain - and pretty much all European scientists agree that this moment has already started/is coming soon. Less oil = higher prices/bigger gap between the poor and the rich/increase of criminality/disease/... No oil = even more hunger/thurst/disease/criminality/higher mortality rate/... Governments will see no other way than crowd control or war because before people start dying off at astronomical rates, they will whine and yearn and revolt and rebel. Maybe the neighbour has some oil left or is sitting on one of the last productive wells. And why can my neighbour drive his car and I can't? Civil wars in countries that do not act/redistribute wealth.

Check it out: we just took a huge step back, back to warfare, for my country that's gonna be a step back of 100 years by then (for the US, of course, this would only be a day back into the past - or less), and we've only just started.

War will destroy infrastructure and without cheap oil there is no cheap way to rebuild. Try building a skyscraper without cheap oil. Try rebuilding all our asphalt jungles without... cheap asphalt, made with cheap petroleum. Oh, dig up the much rarer naturally occuring asphalt? Yeah, dig for it without cheap oil.

And no Marshall plan this time, 'cause everone will need what little they have for themselves.

But wait! Aren't we pro-active as hell, aren't we the smart ones? Aren't we building windmills, solar panels, biofuels, ... en masse to avoid this worst case scenario from happening? Sure we are: AND WE CAN BUILD THESE ALTERNATIVE ENERGY HARVESTERS BECAUSE WE HAVE CHEAP OIL TO BUILD THEM WITH. Once the oil is too rare/too expensive/simply gone, it will be a hell of a lot harder to produce windmills, solar panels, ... and distribute them and repair them. Most people do not realize how important this is: the alternatives are possible, and the R&D of them is possible because of cheap oil.
Take away cars and we're all back to the end of the nineteenth century. Take away the railroad system and we're back to the end of the eighteenth century, ...
Take away cheap medicines. Take away cheap plastics. Take away cheap rare earth elements, take away this, that, ...

Humanity should consider itself very very lucky if it only regresses to back beyond say, 14th-16th century civilization. It'll probably feel way more like a collapse back beyond, say, 14th-16th century, if you ask me.

ps - As to your second insult and personal attack...

http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs...equitur-facts/2012/03/14/gIQApP14CS_blog.html

http://www.snopes.com/politics/gasoline/bakken.asp

So, even ignoring the shale oil, that's a crapload of oil.

[1] For every link you give about shitloads of oil left, there are probably a hundred saying that Peak Oil has started/is right around the corner. Maybe it eludes you but scientists and scholars agree that not only oil, but pretty much everything we like so much (gold, platinum, silver, rare earth elements, ...) is peaking/has peaked.
[2] www.snopes.com? Seriously?
[3] American reports on oil are on the same level as Arab reports on oil: they are too optimistic/blind for the harsh reality/economically driven.

Now, how intellectually bankrupt are you feeling?

 

[zegh8578]

^
That's a whole lot of prophesy from someone critical to prophecies - and still nothing that _ends_ humanity.
I'm glad you finally understand - humanity WILL endure! Things may be rough, difficult, and so on, but so was the 5 years of world war we had. Humanity didn't end.
And in all the hardship predicted by you, you still did not predict the utter demise of humanity.

Hi five!
I love a happy ending : )