Planetary Resources

Just because we progressed thanks to oil doesn't mean that that knowledge will disappear together with oil. Take fallout as an example. The earth is scorched everything is destroyed but the knowledge is out there. We know how plants are grown, we know how combustion engines work, we know how electricity is made, we know how atoms are split. We know mathematics, physics, chemistry, biology and it would take something far worse than oil shortage for us to loose all that.
 
@ zegh

Prophesy? No, I'm sorry, you are cheering way too soon. Read a history book or two. It's Easter Island in a somewhat bigger version, and instead of wood we're talking about oil this time. It's the demise of Ancient Egypt, but there won't be any piramids left this time.
The demise of great civilizations is well recorded and has been profoundly studied. Another very decent book for you to read would be Jared Diamond's Collapse: How Societies Choose to Fail or Succeed. There is a shitload of literature on this subject.

Humanity will not endure because nothing endures. Fossil records confirm this 'prophesy': more than 99% of all species Nature ever managed to create were also destroyed by her (or with a little help of a wandering asteroid). To think that humans will be the exception to this general rule are delusions of grandeur. It is just as stupid as saying the sun revolves around the Earth instead of the other way around. Understanding that humanity is just as vulnerable as, let's say, the trilobites or the dinosaurs is just another paradigm shift like the Copernican revolution: it'll take a lot of time for the common people to grasp it, people like you, but that doesn't mean it is not the right way to think and act.

The only curious thing is that we will be the first species who will have had a hand (or way more than a hand) in its own demise. Unless, of course, you do not believe in global warming/pollution/overfishing/... - which would not surprise me one bit.

May I add that it is becoming mighty cumbersome pointing out to you that you should read up on a subject before debating it? Your last post is just an asinine troll. It does not make you look very smart. Just saying, that's what friends are for, no? :wink:

donperkan said:
Take fallout as an example.

:roll: Seriously? You expect me to take this discussion seriously?
 
alec said:
and pretty much all European scientists agree that this moment has already started/is coming soon.
care to name them? people on the street with "world is ending soon!" do not count as scientists though. Same with those which for example dont believe in global warming

No seriously. Who are those "doomsayers" you're talking about.

alec said:
May I add that it is becoming mighty cumbersome pointing out to you that you should read up on a subject before debating it? Your last post is just an asinine troll. It does not make you look very smart. Just saying, that's what friends are for, no? :wink:
Hands down, no one of us is a professional a scientist with the right education. Lets be realistic here. You could be right or wrong with the things you say. The people which writte about those things (economy, global warming etc.) try to make their money with it. Their target is as well to sell books.

The more important thing is though that you have developed over time an extremely cynical opinion. I am not going to call you "biased" in your opinion, you sure do get your lecture from somewhere and you sure do educate your self about topics.

But hey, remember in the 50s people thought we would not even see the 90s because of global nuclear war and all that shitznit. So. What happened? We are still here. Kicking. alive. I am not saying you are wrong here. I just tend to believe that the truth might be somewhere in the middle eventually.
 
alec said:
Maybe it eludes you but scientists and scholars agree that not only oil, but pretty much everything we like so much (gold, platinum, silver, rare earth elements, ...) is peaking/has peaked.

Are these any of the same scientists and scholars who agreed and predicted we'd have a mini-ice age? The one that didn't happen?

Or the food pandemic? Did any of these guys agree and predict that? Because, that didn't happen either.

Were any of these scientists and scholars part of the bunch that emailed each other and agreed to suppress data that didn't reflect well on their predictions of global warming/climate change and it's causes?

Just sayin'...
 
Crni Vuk said:
I would be curious about which scientists Alec is talking.

You would, wouldn't you? It's laziness on your part, though, since using Google is very, very easy. My sister's youngest daughter, Zahra, is only 5 and she can already use Google. Amazing, isn't it?

:roll: But... here you go.

Concerning Peak Oil:

The three famous tenors:
M. King Hubbert
Colin Campbell
P.M. Laherre

Only three names? I can already see you smile.

Thing is, though, Crni Vuk, that the romantic times of solitary scientists changing the world is a thing of the past. You might not have noticed it, but nowadays it's universities, laboratories and organisations who make discoveries and do inventions. Lots of data (on Peak Oil) is therefore no longer atttributed to a single scientist, but rather to a university/laboratory/institution, which is reflected in the media coverage of it (e.g. "Research at the University of Gent has shown that ...")
Since I am not the world's richest man, I do not feel like calling all the universities (and so on) in the world to make you a list of names. I feel that this should be your task.

Concerning Climate Change:

I know you are lazy, but seriously: just google IPCC. I-P-P-C. Four letters, that's all. I'm sure you won't get cramped fingers from that.

In case you can't google (I'm doing my best to cover all bases here), here's how the IPCC describes itself:

The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) is the leading international body for the assessment of climate change. It was established by the United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP) and the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) to provide the world with a clear scientific view on the current state of knowledge in climate change and its potential environmental and socio-economic impacts. The UN General Assembly endorsed the action by WMO and UNEP in jointly establishing the IPCC.

The IPCC is a scientific body. It reviews and assesses the most recent scientific, technical and socio-economic information produced worldwide relevant to the understanding of climate change. It does not conduct any research nor does it monitor climate related data or parameters.

Thousands of scientists from all over the world contribute to the work of the IPCC on a voluntary basis.

If you want a list with all the names of the scientists that contribute to the work of the IPCC, you might want to contact the organization itself instead of (again!) expecting me to do all the work for you.

There is no excuse for laziness nor is there one for stupidity, Crni Vuk, and you are obviously testing my patience regarding both. Unfortunately for you, it takes more than a man suffering from autism and a man suffering from backwards arms to intimidate me into silence. But do try again. I find this incredibly amusing.
 
^
Alec, if you've thought my argument this whole time was "humanity will endure forever" then i request a major backtrack.

I said "we dont need oil" this is about _oil_ not immortality.
I am fully aware humans are an organism, mortal, and not destined to exist forever. I am even sceptical we will even colonize foreign planets. I think we will perish here on this planet, without having unlocked any major mysteries (such as worm holes and all of that sci-fi masturbation material)

I also am convinced you brought up global warming etc as a desperate measure to keep attacking. I am fully aware of climatic changes. I live in Norway. We actually have actual real glaciers, which are actually, really, melting.

Your accusations of trollery are getting more and more ironic.
Just give up - you KNOW we can survive without oil. Eventually we will die out, but that will be another story.
Give up, and take it like a man. You don't always have to "win" a debate you know. It's not a competition. It's about exchange of knowledge and information. Getting smarter.
 
zegh8578 said:
^
Alec, if you've thought my argument this whole time was "humanity will endure forever" then i request a major backtrack.

Sorry, no requests. :D

I am even sceptical we will even colonize foreign planets.
:roll:

I think we will perish here on this planet
Wait... So humanity will not endure after all?

I also am convinced you brought up global warming etc as a desperate measure to keep attacking.
I brought it up because it was opportune. And because our lack of oil will be accompanied by a pissed off Mother Nature taking revenge on humanity. The combination of both will be hell.

Just give up - you KNOW we can survive without oil. Eventually we will die out, but that will be another story.
Give up, and take it like a man. You don't always have to "win" a debate you know. It's not a competition. It's about exchange of knowledge and information. Getting smarter.
So far, the only people getting smarter from this discussion are you and your lackeys, since none of you have come up with anything solid that would change my opinions and those of countless scholars. Giving up is not an option when you know you are not wrong. And as far is taking it as a man is involved: that sounds incredibly ridiculous coming from someone who has still to become one himself.

My advise? "Wovon man nicht sprechen kann, darüber muss man schweigen." That's from mister Wittgenstein and it's sound advice. Maybe the time has come for you and your lackeys to realize you can't win a debate if you don't know anything about the subject matter at hand? Just a hint.

-- alec, ready for the next round
 
alec said:
So far, the only people getting smarter from this discussion are you and your lackeys, since none of you have come up with anything solid that would change my opinions and those of countless scholars. Giving up is not an option when you know you are not wrong. And as far is taking it as a man is involved: that sounds incredibly ridiculous coming from someone who has still to become one himself.

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I don't claim to know everything, maybe those people are hording somewhere huge stockpiles of oil-reserves which they use in all secret. No clue.

Also, actually to make this clear, when I mention "oil" in relation with our society then I am talking about the Oil we gain by refining.

And this kind of resource is relatively new in the human history (from what I know). And there are many communities which manage to exist completely without it.

So here again ... even if I didn't wanted to do it again. Why do you believe humanity could not survive without it? Even if lets say 60% or 70% of the population would disappear from this planet, there might be still enough around to make sure that humanity as species might continue to exist without oil (in its current use).

Humanity sure might stop to exist, I don't dispute that possibility. Its probably even very likely considering how many times certain species died on this planet. But the lack of Oil probably will not cause that.

alec said:
Only three names? I can already see you smile.
why? After doing a short research about those people it seems that they are credible. But at least Colin has corrected his data several times (which is no surprise, considering we are talking here about "predictions").

All I am saying is, that nothing is set in stone, their research probably of good quality and their knowledge is huge. They seem to be professionals.

But thats beside the point. As said. Predictions are always just that. Predictions. They are not facts. They can however help us to create a realistic view which might help us to find solutions.

As said, humanity has seen many crises including 2 very devastating and gruesome world wars. The issue with Oil and the environment is another problem humanity has to master one way or another granted it might be the biggest challenge so far. But what would be the other option? The alternative? Sitting around and waiting for death? Hence why I said that your over-cynical mind might taint your opinion a little. And I do even agree with some of your opinions, we are nothing more then mere monkeys when it comes to the history of earth and evolution. If we stop to exist tomorrow it doesn't matter to the universe. But that doesn't mean we don't have a chance to master this challenge.

*Edit
alec said:
There is no excuse for laziness nor is there one for stupidity, Crni Vuk, and you are obviously testing my patience regarding both. Unfortunately for you, it takes more than a man suffering from autism and a man suffering from backwards arms to intimidate me into silence. But do try again. I find this incredibly amusing.
Seriously. I like you. But tone that a bit down. Stop this personal attacks of yours. Even if you are not really calling names, but this is NMA not the Order after all. And this isnt a contest mind you we just discuss here our opinions. Your side blows slowly start to become a bit offensive.

Instead of telling me how I am to stupid to use goggle was it so hard to write this 4 letters telling me what to look for exactly? don't be so obtuse. We asked for YOUR sources. How could I know what you see as "viable" source? Or do you expect from me (or others here) to spend hours in goggle searching for the informations which match with your claims. I am not sure if it works that way.

You make a claim, we ask for your sources or which scientists you see as credible. I don't see where the problem is here.

I might be wrong but it seems to me like your attitude is "I am to good to discuss this topic with you because my opinion is better but I am doing it anyway!"
 
Alec, citing the IPCC is not the greatest idea, especially around here.

the last report from the IPCC from like 2008 or so was found to have used over 100 sources that were either not peer reviewed or non-scientific.

it got so bad there were even news articles wondering about the possibility for the head of the IPCC having to resign or firing him.
 
you are talking about climategate

if i remember correctly they were either:

1) taking current trends and applying them to past data points

2) taking known neutral data and applying the results of known biased data. ( temp stations near developed areas and applying their variation to temp stations in undeveloped areas )
 
Theories are just theories and credibility is all based on perception.

Economist Michael Lynch[45] argues that the theory behind the Hubbert curve is too simplistic and relies on an overly Malthusian point of view.[46] Lynch claims that Campbell's predictions for world oil production are strongly biased towards underestimates, and that Campbell has repeatedly pushed back the date.[47][48]

Leonardo Maugeri, vice president of the Italian energy company Eni, argues that nearly all of peak estimates do not take into account unconventional oil even though the availability of these resources is significant and the costs of extraction and processing, while still very high, are falling because of improved technology. He also notes that the recovery rate from existing world oil fields has increased from about 22% in 1980 to 35% today because of new technology and predicts this trend will continue. The ratio between proven oil reserves and current production has constantly improved, passing from 20 years in 1948 to 35 years in 1972 and reaching about 40 years in 2003.[49] These improvements occurred even with low investment in new exploration and upgrading technology because of the low oil prices during the last 20 years. However, Maugeri feels that encouraging more exploration will require relatively high oil prices.[50]

Edward Luttwak, an economist and historian, claims that unrest in countries such as Russia, Iran and Iraq has led to a massive underestimate of oil reserves.[51] The Association for the Study of Peak Oil and Gas (ASPO) responds by claiming neither Russia nor Iran are troubled by unrest currently, but Iraq is.[52]

Cambridge Energy Research Associates authored a report that is critical of Hubbert-influenced predictions:[53]

“ Despite his valuable contribution, M. King Hubbert's methodology falls down because it does not consider likely resource growth, application of new technology, basic commercial factors, or the impact of geopolitics on production. His approach does not work in all cases-including on the United States itself-and cannot reliably model a global production outlook. Put more simply, the case for the imminent peak is flawed. As it is, production in 2005 in the Lower 48 in the United States was 66 percent higher than Hubbert projected. ”

CERA does not believe there will be an endless abundance of oil, but instead believes that global production will eventually follow an “undulating plateau” for one or more decades before declining slowly,[54] and that production will reach 40 Mb/d by 2015.[55]

Alfred J. Cavallo, while predicting a conventional oil supply shortage by no later than 2015, does not think Hubbert's peak is the correct theory to apply to world production.[56]

Some experts say one thing, other experts disagree.
 
Crni Vuk said:
gobbledygook

Dear Crni Vuk

I know you have already posted that you think it is of no concern to write incomprehensibly, but I beg to differ.
In antiquity, grammmar, rhetoric and logic were considered the core liberal arts. It's true. Only articulate persons were taken seriously. And when you stop and think about it for a minute, it starts to make sense. I mean, seriously: don't you think Plato would have made a fool of Socrates if he had littered his dialogues with misspellings and bad grammar? And would you really be able to sit through a lecture if the person speaking was impossible to follow and understand?

You still don't agree? Okay. Let's say you're a mathematician and I am asking you to prove a certain statement you are making. If your proof is littered with mistakes, I will simply not be inclined to take you seriously. 'Oh,' you will say, 'does it really matter if I write a + symbol where it should have been a - symbol?'

Yes, it does matter. A lot.

It's simple, really: a person who can not properly express himself is poor. And he may also be lazy, since penmanship is not a talent: it is supposed to be something everyone can master, with a litttle perseverance maybe.

And spare me the 'I am autistic' routine: these boards come with a Spell Checker, for crying out loud. I am sure that pushing a single button before posting is not too much to ask of an inarticulate person?
After all, that Spell Checker is offering you the possibility to appear intelligent and polite. You can benefit from its programming.

-- alec

P.S. What is Goggle? Is it a new browser I am not aware of?
 
since when was I ridding the "look at me I am autistic!" horse?

But, sure go on attacking my skills with the english language if that makes you a happier person.
 
You disregard an entire post because you find something you can exploit.

I bow before your wisdom sir.
 
alec said:
*lots of condescendingness*

Forum posting is irrelevant. It's the internet. The main point here is to be understood.

Not everyone has a need to "come off" as intelligent, witty or awesome. Maybe they allready are intelligent, and don't absolutely need to flag it.
Don't impose your own insecurities on others - it shows.

The only reason I bother to type very correctly here, is because I was finally told to, by the mods, and I don't wanna get into lame discussions (Oh, flaming irony). But from planetary resources, to inventing nifty little reasons for all written language to appear litterary flawless, there is little left or any relevance to anything by this point.
You should preach this message to everyone communicating through text messages, how important it is to - at all times - keep the written and grammatical integrity of a language - lest they be afraid to "come off" as less intelligent, witty or awesome.
 
We're sure not running out of oil soon; it's just going to become rarer and rarer as time goes, until it's no longer a viable fuel source for the whole of humanity. My totally not scientific estimate is about 60-70 years down the line, taking into account the fact that demand will sharply increase with the rise of developping nations such as Brazil, China, India and co.

In fact, running out of ressources is not that urgent of a problem. But we need to start to address it now. Once oil runs out, it's not coming back. Shale is no a perfect replacement by any means. In fact no ressource that I know of is as versatile as oil. Times are going to be tough by the time I'm an old man on that front, I'm pretty sure of it.

I man, electricity can very well be produced by green means once the technology improves. But finding a relatively safe, efficient fuel for transportation will be harder. Hydrogen is too volatile. Nuclear is obviously out of the question. Electricity is hard to store, ect.

Personally, I'm more worried about losing space and biodiversity. Desertification is accelerating at a pretty alarming rate, and mankind does not help. Mass deforestation really hurts ecosystems. Making many species extinct can have very long-term effects (the worse case are fishes, some species are mercilessly hunted with little regulations).

But then again, it's not really the subject of the thread.
 
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