War imminent with Russia

[Dr Fallout]

I think that's the point he was making.

No seriously, western funded polls (you know, shit the US and Europe pumps out) actually finds that the majority of Crimea is happy under the Russian occupation.
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2016/jan/19/crimeans-still-tigerish-over-split-with-ukraine
http://www.forbes.com/sites/kenrapo...-annexed-crimea-locals-prefer-moscow-to-kiev/
http://uatoday.tv/press/crimea-resi...-years-after-annexation-by-russia-574402.html

And polls are always trustworthy

You are now banned from using any polls as evidence for whatever you say. Or are they trustworthy when YOU use them?

 

[Throatpunch]

You are now banned from using any polls as evidence for whatever you say.

You cant ban me from anything. This is the internet.

 

[Crni Vuk]

And polls are always trustworthy

That's something that always troubles me somewhat. When we do polls, they are always used to back up some claim. Be it in US politics or Europe. However, if it's anything Russia, Chinese, or what ever ... it must be at all times, fueled by propaganda. Now, I am not saying that you can't rig polls and statistics. But, if the poll was backed up by the west, as Dr Fallout says, then why should it not have some merit? I mean what Russia did in Crimea was a big pile of shit and a dick move. But it happend. It's over now. And there is nothing we can do about it. That's the harsh reality. Just as how Russia couldn't really do anything when Europe and the US decided to bomb Assad, or doing all the other crap in the middle east which also helped Daesh (ISIS) to gain power.

Tradiationaly, there is a very huge anti-russian sentiment in the west, this is simply a historical thing. I mean 60 years of cold war? Com on, something like that is going to leave a mark, even on future politics. The media and many politicans are very fast to jump on bashing Russia and China. If it makes sense or not. I do not talk about criticism against Russian politics. That's a whole different story. We can and should criticise Russia. But I do not think that we really have a shortage on criticism when it comes to Russia. Even if you take the cold war, with the USSR, there was ALWAYS two sides to the whole thing.

 

[Throatpunch]

That's something that always troubles me somewhat. When we do polls, they are always used to back up some claim. Be it in US politics or Europe. However, if it's anything Russia, Chinese, or what ever ... it must be at all times, fueled by propaganda. Now, I am not saying that you can't rig polls and statistics. But, if the poll was backed up by the west, as Dr Fallout says, then why should it not have some merit? I mean what Russia did in Crimea was a big pile of shit and a dick move. But it happend. It's over now. And there is nothing we can do about it. That's the harsh reality. Just as how Russia couldn't really do anything when Europe and the US decided to bomb Assad, or doing all the other crap in the middle east which also helped Daesh (ISIS) to gain power.

Tradiationaly, there is a very huge anti-russian sentiment in the west, this is simply a historical thing. I mean 60 years of cold war? Com on, something like that is going to leave a mark, even on future politics. The media and many politicans are very fast to jump on bashing Russia and China. If it makes sense or not. I do not talk about criticism against Russian politics. That's a whole different story. We can and should criticise Russia. But I do not think that we really have a shortage on criticism when it comes to Russia. Even if you take the cold war, with the USSR, there was ALWAYS two sides to the whole thing.

Just saying its unwise to base your argument on a poll.

 

[Crni Vuk]

Uh, who's basing his argument on a single poll here?

 

[Throatpunch]

Dr Fallout

 

[Crni Vuk]

As far as I can read, he hasn't made any real argument at all so far, he just said that polls show that a substantialy large group in Crimea are happy with the annexion, or are at least are in agreement with it, which isn't very surprsing when you're looking at the current ethnicity in Crimea, which is as far as I know largely of Russian descendant. However we are not discussing the history of the Crimea right now, and how those ethnicities actually ended up in this region, which is for it self a very interesting topic by the way, the history of the tartars and Crimea is nothing short of amazing. What ever the CONCLUSSION of that poll is, is also a whole different question alltogether. Dr Fallout mentioned the poll as answer to Valick. What ever if we agree with the annexion or not - for example, I do not agree with it -, I think it is still fair to assume that at least some, welcomed the annexion by Russia. How many, and why? Well that is open to debate of course. Like I said, we are just scratching on the surface of it.

 

[Operation Wignut]

Just as how Russia couldn't really do anything when Europe and the US decided to bomb Assad, or doing all the other crap in the middle east which also helped Daesh (ISIS) to gain power.

"bomb Assad"
Wait, what? I'm gonna need a source on that one.

The media and many politicans are very fast to jump on bashing Russia and China. If it makes sense or not.
I do not talk about criticism against Russian politics. That's a whole different story. We can and should criticise Russia. But I do not think that we really have a shortage on criticism when it comes to Russia. Even if you take the cold war, with the USSR, there was ALWAYS two sides to the whole thing.

And yet you think it's a one-sided story here, for some reason. The US has plenty of Putin fetishists, in the general public, in the media and in politics (most notably Trump). A lot of more radical conservatives can rally around him because he criticizes the Obama administration on a regular basis. Believe me, it's not some united front against Russia here. If anything, most of the public is completely apathetic about it. In the Cold War, we cared about Russia because it was the only other world superpower. Now, we're trying to make sure WE don't fall apart as a world superpower.

 

[Crni Vuk]

Where have I said this was one-sided? Putin(g) words in my mouth here? Of course propaganda happens in Russia, China and pretty much everywhere else, probably even worse then here, if you're looking at Russia Today. But I am not Russian, nor do I live in Russia. So I can not talk about them. If I want to look at Russia, then I will look at their critics to form my opinion. People like Anna Politkowskaja and the Novaya Gazeta. I can only talk about the Media and culture that I have grown up with. The problem is, even if we have a lot more free and critical voices, luckily, but we should still look at our main-stream media which often follows a certain mind set. And this tune often enough ends up with bashing Russia, what ever if it makes sense or not. I can only cringe when people and politicans in public, directly compare Putin with Hitler for example. How is that helping the situation? If people think that Putin is equal to Hitler, then they have to open a history book again. This is populism and just to stir up people, noting more nothing less. Such statements are not made to have an actuall debate or with the intention to find an actuall solution.

What I find interesting is how a lot of the media is silent when there are major deals on the table, like that one time when Germany sold no clue 30 or 40 planes to China? Or how Russian supporters in Ukraine are all corrupt, criminals and bad people, while the fascists on the other side are peacefull democrats I guess. Eh. Politics.

If we denounce the one side, then we hvae to do it with the other one as well. That's what I think is fair. There are enough people in Ukraine who are not very happy with their current government either, you must know that there are many shaddy figures in their parliament and their current government. And there is STILL(!) no clear picture of what happend at the Euromaidan. I still would like to know who shot at the Euromaidan. There are simply so many open question regarding Ukraine. And only one thing is clear. That neither Russia, nor the US really care about the well being of Ukraine.

"bomb Assad"
Wait, what? I'm gonna need a source on that one.

During the Syrian war, both Europe and the US backed up forces fighting Assad, of which some have been just as opressive and bad like Assad himself. This ongoing Support further destabilized the region, which allowed Daesh (ISIS) to actually get a foot in Syria. Former actions in Iraq notwithstanding.

 

[Operation Wignut]

Where have I said this was one-sided?

You said the media and many politicians jump on Putin whether it makes any sense or not. The media, as much as I'd like to believe, is not one giant entity. There's plenty of pro-Putin journalists and publications here in the US. I just wanted to dispel that notion, and may have jumped a bit too hard.

During the Syrian war, both Europe and the US backed up forces fighting Assad, of which some have been just as opressive and bad like Assad himself. This ongoing Support further destabilized the region, which allowed Daesh (ISIS) to actually get a foot in Syria. Former actions in Iraq notwithstanding.

Yeah, I get that. Believe me, after the Arab Spring I knew there was going to be Wahhabist uprisings in that region anyways. We certainly didn't help, but it was more or less inevitable. What I'm saying is we never bombed Assad. We certainly aren't bombing him now. Or at least, as far as I know, we aren't. So I asked for a source on the Assad bombings we may have done.

 

[Crni Vuk]

You said the media and many politicians jump on Putin whether it makes any sense or not. The media, as much as I'd like to believe, is not one giant entity. There's plenty of pro-Putin journalists and publications here in the US. I just wanted to dispel that notion, and may have jumped a bit too hard.

Yeah, of course the media is not one giant entity, I am not one of those conspiracy nuts :p. I am just saying, there is always this kind of 'main stream' opinion, like where 60% of the population and/or media and politians follow a certain mindset, with different variations. Sometimes people see Russia or China as the embodiment of evil, sometimes they defierentiate but quite often I see how people I know are very very quick when it comes to conclussions, where I think, wait a min, the case is not even closed yet, but everyone knows who's to blame already? Just like with Munich and this crazy shooter. The blood of those he murdered was not even cold, and some already had all the answers of who he was, why he did it and who/what is to blame, all while the police didn't even started their investigation ...

 

[Dr Fallout]

WESTERN funded polls (You know, polls funded by the same groups that cry that Crimeans are suffering under Russian rule) shows that the majority of all ethnic groups are happy or have no regrets by being annexed by Russia. It basically shows that no matter how you view the annexation, the people living under it are fine with it (not all, but a clear majority).

 

[Operation Wignut]

WESTERN funded polls (You know, polls funded by the same groups that cry that Crimeans are suffering under Russian rule) shows that the majority of all ethnic groups are happy or have no regrets by being annexed by Russia. It basically shows that no matter how you view the annexation, the people living under it are fine with it (not all, but a clear majority).

"Western-funded poll"

No. Gallup is an independant research foundation BASED IN the US, but is touted as an objective organization because of it's lack of partisan funding and it's focus on polling abroad. That's the only organization that polled this particular subject.

"No matter how you view the annexation, the people living under it are fine with it"

No again. They polled 500 people that live in a territory of almost 2 million people. That's 0.025% of the population. Just 500 random guys can apparently dictate to the world what 2 million people feel. This is the fundamental problem with polls, and why I will rarely take them into consideration. It limits any context to the argument because the sample size is too small. How can you accurately represent an entire territory with this small of a sample size?

90% of Crimea could believe this, or 0.025% of Crimea could believe this. This isn't science. This is barely even guessing. All this indicates is the mass media will jump on every scrap they can to get a story.

 

[Dr Fallout]

"Western-funded poll"

No. Gallup is an independant research foundation BASED IN the US, but is touted as an objective organization because of it's lack of partisan funding and it's focus on polling abroad. That's the only organization that polled this particular subject.

"No matter how you view the annexation, the people living under it are fine with it"

No again. They polled 500 people that live in a territory of almost 2 million people. That's 0.025% of the population. Just 500 random guys can apparently dictate to the world what 2 million people feel. This is the fundamental problem with polls, and why I will rarely take them into consideration. It limits any context to the argument because the sample size is too small. How can you accurately represent an entire territory with this small of a sample size?

90% of Crimea could believe this, or 0.025% of Crimea could believe this. This isn't science. This is barely even guessing. All this indicates is the mass media will jump on every scrap they can to get a story.

Here's some more on the subject (http://www.ibtimes.com/gallup-poll-...ifferent-ideas-about-russia-last-year-1561821), and while I understand that polls are limited, keep in mind that they're the only way to statistically find the opinions of a population, even if it's a small sample size. There's no other way to reliably understand the feelings of Crimeans without the poll. Are they creating peaceful or violent riots against the government? No. Are they creating insurgent groups to fight against Russia? No. Are there signs of widespread dissent? No.

Without polls, they must be happy because there's no other sign of unhappiness.

 

[Izak]

No again. They polled 500 people that live in a territory of almost 2 million people. That's 0.025% of the population.

They did hold a referendum over the issue back when they were annexed, likely a manipulated referendum but a referendum regardless.

 

[Operation Wignut]

Here's some more on the subject (http://www.ibtimes.com/gallup-poll-...ifferent-ideas-about-russia-last-year-1561821),

732 people actually took the poll this time! (1200 sample size multiplied by 61% response rate)

Still not even 0.1% of the population. And yet they get to dictate to the world what the opinion of all of Crimea is.

and while I understand that polls are limited, keep in mind that they're the only way to statistically find the opinions of a population, even if it's a small sample size. There's no other way to reliably understand the feelings of Crimeans without the poll.

And yet the poll doesn't accurately portray them either. I don't actually care what the Crimeans think, but basing any of your opinions on polls of 0.025% or even 0.037% of the population of a country is, in my humble opinion, flat-out illogical.

Are they creating peaceful or violent riots against the government? No. Are they creating insurgent groups to fight against Russia? No. Are there signs of widespread dissent? No.

Because they've got unemployment and lower income to deal with. It's not like the average person is going to be constantly up in arms when they have no job, insinuating no money, insinuating no food. It's not like Russia is improving the situation there.

http://ua.krymr.com/a/27693639.html

That says unemployment has gone up to 9.5% in 2015 from 5.8% in 2012. Or at least, that's what it's been translated to me as. Feel free to correct me on that, but if it's true then Russia must be gearing up for aiding Crimea and just couldn't do it for the past 2 years I guess...

Without polls, they must be happy because there's no other sign of unhappiness.

Yeah, if it's all quiet on the Western Front then it should be cherries and lollipops, right?

They did hold a referendum over the issue back when they were annexed, likely a manipulated referendum but a referendum regardless.

Ehh, if the UN doesn't recognize it I'm going to say it's not really God's word of Gospel.

http://www.securitycouncilreport.org/atf/cf/{65BFCF9B-6D27-4E9C-8CD3-CF6E4FF96FF9}/a_res_68_262.pdf

 

[Dr Fallout]

732 people actually took the poll this time! (1200 sample size multiplied by 61% response rate)

Still not even 0.1% of the population. And yet they get to dictate to the world what the opinion of all of Crimea is.

It happens everywhere, every poll isn't a fair representation of any population. Yet it's the closest thing we get to.

And yet the poll doesn't accurately portray them either. I don't actually care what the Crimeans think, but basing any of your opinions on polls of 0.025% or even 0.037% of the population of a country is, in my humble opinion, flat-out illogical.

You know what's even more flat out illogical? Calling them unhappy without ANY evidence, poll wise or better. (Not saying you're doing that, but the West is)

Because they've got unemployment and lower income to deal with. It's not like the average person is going to be constantly up in arms when they have no job, insinuating no money, insinuating no food. It's not like Russia is improving the situation there.

http://ua.krymr.com/a/27693639.html

That says unemployment has gone up to 9.5% in 2015 from 5.8% in 2012. Or at least, that's what it's been translated to me as. Feel free to correct me on that, but if it's true then Russia must be gearing up for aiding Crimea and just couldn't do it for the past 2 years I guess...

Yet instead of making peaceful strikes that can be found in the US, Crimeans just want more aid from Russia. That may or may not be a sign that they don't hate the occupation. There's no sign of any widespread dissent, and unemployment cannot prove that.

Yeah, if it's all quiet on the Western Front then it should be cherries and lollipops, right?

Strawman, but seriously there are no signs of widespread dissent that can be found in Russia, the US and Ukraine.

Ehh, if the UN doesn't recognize it I'm going to say it's not really God's word of Gospel.

http://www.securitycouncilreport.org/atf/cf/{65BFCF9B-6D27-4E9C-8CD3-CF6E4FF96FF9}/a_res_68_262.pdf

Are we talking about the same UN that entered a war in Korea on American interests?

 

[Izak]

Are we talking about the same UN that entered a war in Korea on American interests?

You realise North Korea was the aggressor in that war right? And that NK were and are pretty huge pricks.

 

[Dr Fallout]

You realise North Korea was the aggressor in that war right? And that NK were and are pretty huge pricks.

So? By that logic, the UN has the right to enter every war they want, as long as they state that one side are the good guys.

 

[Izak]

So? By that logic, the UN has the right to enter every war they want, as long as they state that one side are the good guys.

No, they do have the right to enter into wars when one side is violating international treaties in the interest of adding more land to their imperium, though.