What's Trump up to now?

Discussion in 'General Discussion Forum' started by Mr Fish, Nov 16, 2016.

  1. MutantScalper

    MutantScalper Dogmeat

    Nov 22, 2009
    It's the American way. And they are the 'leaders of the free world' and a supposed model for the rest of the world, or at least the 'West'. Through NATO etc. they wield a lot of power in Europe. However, with Trump saying stuff like he won't rule out using nukes in Europe, I'm not sure their inner conflicts won't spill out. US has a history of lashing out and not giving a damn about what happens to others as long as they project an 'air of invincibility'.
     
  2. Ilosar

    Ilosar Vault Fossil

    Apr 20, 2010
    4b$ (potentially) over 10 years isn't a shit-ton of money on a national scale for the US. It's closer to chump change actually. Good on him, but not amazing.

    Plus, as NBC said, Obama did something very similar in 2009. But I suppose he didn't announce it on Twitter so people didn't fawn over him.
     
    • [Like] [Like] x 1
  3. IndignantHedgehog

    IndignantHedgehog It Wandered In From the Wastes

    179
    Jan 7, 2016
    Yeah, but it didn't actually say anything, or disprove my statement. It was just "North Koreans have weapons".


    That's because we are no longer a manufacturing economy, at least from a jobs perspective. We aren't getting new manufacturing jobs because of automation.

    https://www.mercatus.org/publication/us-manufacturing-output-vs-jobs-1975

    We are a service economy, that's the economic reality. That means programmers, doctors, bankers, and lawyers. And, yes, waiters and bartenders.

    It's a shit deal because it's a short term solution to a long term problem.
    http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/why-trumps-carrier-deal-isnt-the-way-to-save-u-s-jobs/


    And, in any case, job growth is not an issue here. We actually have an excess of opening that we lack people with the skills to fill (programming and computer security are a great example). What is an issue currently is wage growth, which has stagnated. Unskilled factory jobs are being replaced by machines. And no about of whingeing or deal-making it going to bring them back.


    You're hilarious.

    The chart is meaningless if I can't see the data behind it, so I can't argue against it directly. I also provided sources showing how labor participation is a bad metric.

    http://www.cbpp.org/research/policy...upplemental-nutrition-assistance-program-snap
    Plus, the number of people on SNAP has been falling (down 1.8M).



    An issue, but doesn't dispove anything I have said.


    Literally at the bottom of the linked report from the tax foundation.
    So an extra 10T a year on to our debt.
    http://taxfoundation.org/article/details-and-analysis-donald-trump-s-tax-plan


    Do you even read the stuff you post?
     
    Last edited: Dec 7, 2016
    • [Like] [Like] x 2
  4. Crni Vuk

    Crni Vuk M4A3 Oldfag oTO Orderite

    Nov 25, 2008
    I am curious, would the states with nuclear weapons use them if there was a new Civil War in the US?
     
  5. Ragemage

    Ragemage Wept for Zion

    Feb 20, 2016
    Go back and read my post again because you clearly missed the entire point. I'm saying that giving weapons to a country leaves much more of an impact than a damn phone call. North Korea still uses weapons gifted to it over 50 years ago, and it still works. How long do you think the cutting edge technology we gave Taiwan will last them? A Hell of a lot longer than anyone's going to remember that Trump accepted congratulations from their president.


    Okay? In your article I see nothing about automation. What I do see is this quotation: "The true cause of dwindling American competitiveness is a tax code that puts domestic firms at a clear disadvantage – not a lack of skill or innovation on the part of the American worker." Which goes along with the theory that manufacturing jobs are leaving in such high droves not because of machinery but because companies can get huge tax breaks and cheap cheap labor in other countries such as Mexico and China.

    We aren't a manufacturing economy anymore because we've been giving it all away. Trump is trying to bring it back. Remind me again why this is a bad thing? We used to be the top manufacturer in the world. Nowadays it's China. https://www.mapi.net/blog/2015/09/china-solidifies-its-position-world’s-largest-manufacturer


    What you seem to be misunderstanding is the fact that this deal will bring economic growth to Indiana. 6 million in tax revenue to be precise. The man's not even in office yet as it is, but he's already proven he knows plenty about how to keep jobs here. Once he's actually in office I imagine the "long term problem" will be more handily addressed.

    Right back atcha.

    The fact of the matter is, it's what most of the world uses to determine how well jobs are going. Whether you think it's a bad metric or not doesn't really matter when it's what's used to judge us on a global scale ( http://data.worldbank.org/indicator/SL.TLF.CACT.ZS ), and right now it's showing over 90 million eligible-to-work Americans out of a job. ( http://www.cnsnews.com/news/article...t-labor-force-labor-force-participation-rises )


    http://www.cbpp.org/research/policy...upplemental-nutrition-assistance-program-snap
    Plus, the number of people on SNAP has been falling (down 1.8M).

    The point of your original post was that most of the people on SNAP were employed. You've yet to post proof of that claim. This comes from the article you posted however:

    "Most unemployed childless adults are limited to three months of benefits, unless they are working at least 20 hours per week or participating in a qualifying workfare or job training program. States may seek temporary waivers from this time limit for areas with high unemployment, where qualifying jobs are scarce. To receive a waiver, states must provide detailed Labor Department unemployment data for the state or areas within the state that demonstrate sustained levels of high unemployment."

    So why might the number of people on SNAP be falling? Well it sounds to me like it's because if you can't find a job in 3 months you're cut out of the program. That doesn't = most people being on it being employed however, it just explains why the numbers are dropping. Anecdotal evidence for a moment, but one of my friends in Maryland was on the food stamp program but was cut off once he hit 21 because he was unable to find work. Now he would be on the street if it weren't for his uncle paying him for rent and board. It's not because he isn't looking for work, it's because he can't find any, but he also can't get SNAP because he can't find work.


    Also at the bottom:

    "Finally, it is worth noting that the Taxes and Growth Model does not take into account the fiscal or economic effects of interest on debt. It also does not require budgets to balance over the long term. It also does not account for the potential macroeconomic effects of any spending cuts that may be required to finance the plan."


    Yes, do you? Considering you only cherry-picked a single line out of that entire argument. *slow clap*

    Meanwhile here are some things from the actual tax plan:

    http://prntly.com/2016/08/14/trumps-tax-plan-is-right-most-americans-should-pay-no-income-tax/ A highlight from this would be if you make less than $25,000 a year, you don't have to pay taxes anymore.


    I'll also point out the same people who originally argued Trump's plan would cost taxpayers 10 trillion also said later on they were "clueless" and "not really experts" when it came to Bernie's tax plan:

    http://fortune.com/2016/03/08/donald-trumps-tax-plan-primary/ (them talking about Trump)

    http://usuncut.com/news/sanders-shoots-down-tpc-analysis-of-tax-plan/ (them talking about Bernie)

    Both based off Tax Policy Center reports.
     
    • [Like] [Like] x 2
  6. IndignantHedgehog

    IndignantHedgehog It Wandered In From the Wastes

    179
    Jan 7, 2016
    And you don't understand how international relations work. Weapons sales to Taiwan don't change the status quo. Recognizing them as legitimate, however, does. It's why the call was so criticized, and it's why he backtracked it.


    Automation is why our input has increased while our jobs have fallen. I was just using that chart to show the information

    https://www.technologyreview.com/s/515926/how-technology-is-destroying-jobs/




    And it's not just manufacturing, there are loads of jobs that can be automated, from a large number of construction jobs, to fast food. We need to focus on preparing our workforce to transition, not cling to what was.

    https://www.washingtonpost.com/opin...4aa2e849447_story.html?utm_term=.544683e2e50f

    I agree. We need to lower cor prate tax rates, but raise personal on the higher brackets. Wages, not so much. We can never compete with China on wages, as their cost of living is so god damn low (by about a half compared to the US), and their minimum is too low to even think with competing with(Beijing has the highest at $2.90 an hour).

    The two are not mutually exclusive.


    Why do we want to be a manufacturing economy? Our GDP is the highest it's ever been. Our economy is one of the strongest, if not the strongest, on earth. Fetishizing over factory jobs doesn't fix anything.


    It's a bad thing because it's papering over the cracks and not focusing on the real issues.


    Considering his focus on manufacturing, and never mentioning high-tech manufacturing, wage stagnation, or any of the myriad actual economic issues we are facing, somehow I doubt it. And he hasn't proven shit. Unless you think bribing companies to stay is a good long term solution.


    You are implying that the NYT and WoPo, two of the highest regarded newspapers in the US, are so biased in their reporting that they should be treated the same as partisan sites. That's a pretty big claim.


    Love to see some evidence to back that up.

    And what does a world bank page have to do with anything? The world bank has loads of differnt statsitcs, including unenployment.
    http://data.worldbank.org/indicator/SL.UEM.TOTL.ZS

    It's one of the metrics that is useful for economic planning, of course it is recorded.


    Yes, because the baby boomers are retiring, and not everybody who is above 16 and not working is unemployed (unless you are suggesting that we should count high school students in our employment numbers). The article quotes the fed chair saying as much.




    Literally in the article



    This comes from the article you posted however:

    Although there are long-term unemployed that are being cut off, that total of long term unemployed is around 2M according to the BLS. Not particularly striking in a nation of 319M. And still doesn't go against my argument.



    Not sure what you are trying to prove here. It's just the basic reality that we can't predict what will happen exactly. But unless he's planning to cut social secutiry, medicare, and defense (which he has stated he won't), the only way he's going to reduce the deficit is by raising taxes or slashing programs like there is no tomorrow.

    And I just didn't want to deal with that badly written punditry, which linked to an empty archive page, the fact he raised less money, and a construction project opening ahead of time as some sort of indicator of his economic planning prowess, when they aren't even tangentially related. And some bullshit about our current <0.5T deficit is just as bad (somehow). There was really nothing to argue against. Where did you get it from anyway?



    The point being?


    Uhh, the TPC and the Tax Foundation are two different organizations you know.
     
  7. Crni Vuk

    Crni Vuk M4A3 Oldfag oTO Orderite

    Nov 25, 2008
    Many of the factory and manufacturing jobs that dissapeared wont come back regardless if we keep the companies around or not, in some cases it's not even realistic to demand them back, our industry is already more efficient then ever was. To demand that they all come back, is as usefull like to demand that farmers return to the 1800 century farming, simply because it means more jobs in farming. It doesn't work that way. Jobs simply change, that's a rather normal process, and due to a lot of reasons, manufacturing jobs and other menial tasks that can be done by machines will simply vanish over time.
     
    • [Like] [Like] x 2
  8. Ilosar

    Ilosar Vault Fossil

    Apr 20, 2010
    The reality is more complex, but in the essense you're right.

    It's a recurring problem with this whole ''we make manufacturing jobs come back and we'll be good again'' mindset, I think. No matter what the US does, on the grand scheme of things the US cannot compete on manufacturing with workers that can do basically the same job at less than half the price. I'm sorry, but unless you start to heavily penalize companies, that's simply not going to happen. And then you just crush the idea of free market and see untold amounts of other problems show up as said companies just relocate their major operations outside of the US. Not all of them will do it, sure. But it's a very real risk. And while automation isn't responsible for all the job losses, it's definitely a big one.

    I have a close friend that works in a giant steel mill outside of Montreal, and he says that basically half the people there barely have a purpose anymore. Machines can be programmed to do what they do, easily. He once came up with a blueprint for a system that would make the assembly line more efficient, and was immediately shot down because that means more people would be laid off. The place is creatively bankrupt, and just does the same thing it's always done. He just stays because he's very well paid, comparatively. The place is already pretty much only kept afloat by giant harbors around the Americas ordering plates for their ships, as well as generous subsidies. I'm not saying it happens in every factory, but if that's anywhere near a trend, there's no way a manufacturing golden age will come back without the State crushing companies under mountains of regulations forcing them to employ more people or some dumb shit like that.

    The US should focus their comparative advantage on stuff that the lesser skilled, lower paid workers of China/South America cannot do; higher tech industries, product transformation, services, ressources, so on and so forth. That's not to say the manufacturing sector should be jettisoned entirely. Revitalizing parts of it isn't a bad idea in essence. But it's far, far from being any sort of cure to the US's economic problems.
     
    • [Like] [Like] x 3
  9. IndignantHedgehog

    IndignantHedgehog It Wandered In From the Wastes

    179
    Jan 7, 2016
    Exactly. Now high-tech manufacturing would be a great thing to invest in, as would re-opening our rare earth metal mines (we get most of ours from Chins). But the 40 hour a week union factory job is dying. The way businesses work is you hire the fewest number of people that can do the most possible work. And with machines, a one time investment of, say, $200K, can mean that there are 4 $50k a year jobs. Now obviously that's a tad simplistic, but that is the general idea.
     
  10. Ragemage

    Ragemage Wept for Zion

    Feb 20, 2016
    Even more jobs, how will the liberals decry him this time? http://thetruthdivision.com/2016/12...obs-ready-to-be-brought-back-thanks-to-trump/

    For that matter, @IndignantHedgehog , what exactly do you think those 50,000 jobs from SoftBank are? They aren't normal manufacturing, they're high-tech manufacturing. SoftBank owns Sprint, Wifi networks, and many other types of cellphone and television related technology and companies. Those are all high-tech manufacturing jobs being pumped into the market. ( some of their largest acquisitions: https://www.theatlas.com/charts/rkga_Nqv )
     
    • [Like] [Like] x 2
  11. IndignantHedgehog

    IndignantHedgehog It Wandered In From the Wastes

    179
    Jan 7, 2016
  12. Vergil

    Vergil Banned

    Jul 8, 2014
    Also
    >still blindly trusting mainstream media after they've been wrong about everything this whole election
     
    • [Like] [Like] x 3
  13. MercenarySnake

    MercenarySnake Kept you waiting huh?

    Aug 22, 2015
    Oh no not the Washington Compost, also that clickbaity title using "attacked" as if Trump physically assaulted him. Trump was simply telling how it was, when are we going to learn that MSM is full of shit and any credibility they did have is gone *poof*.

    Also he "attacked" Trump first telling him he was wrong about the numbers as he was pissed at him and thinks Trump shouldn't of been mad about that, then he puts him in his place.
     
    Last edited: Dec 9, 2016
    • [Like] [Like] x 3
  14. Dr Fallout

    Dr Fallout Centurion

    Aug 17, 2015
  15. Crni Vuk

    Crni Vuk M4A3 Oldfag oTO Orderite

    Nov 25, 2008
    Yeah, well I have no clue how credible it is. Sadly, in this day and age, it really has become more and more difficult to trust the media, be it those shills from TYT, the schmocks from Breitbard, the conspiracy lunatics from Inforwars, or the mass media, like CNN, Fox, you name it. They all have a certain motivation and agenda behind their news coverage. And that really sucks.
     
    • [Like] [Like] x 1
  16. IndignantHedgehog

    IndignantHedgehog It Wandered In From the Wastes

    179
    Jan 7, 2016
    If you trust a bank and industry CEO more than a reporter at one of the most reputable sources in the US, than I think it is you has the problem.

    Also, what have they been lying about this whole election my I ask? Or is this more unfounded BS?
     
  17. Jogre

    Jogre So Old I'm Losing Radiation Signs

    Oct 25, 2015
    Where exactly was this steel company getting it's labour from before it decided to move back to America?

    Everyone's so quick to think about the county that gained all these jobs, but not about the country/countries that just lost all those jobs.

    As above, so below.
     
  18. MercenarySnake

    MercenarySnake Kept you waiting huh?

    Aug 22, 2015
    Didn't they say Hillary was supposed to win? Can't believe what the MSM shits out anymore.
     
  19. Kremin

    Kremin Guest

    You know I don't understand what the deal with posting the things you do before officially becoming the POTUS on Twitter.

    If anything it gives a platform for some people either new to the elections or not. Shit, I remember some people don't even watch the news about him, they just pay attention to his Twitter feed.