What's next in US foreign policy?

quietfanatic said:
The EU will be the first major competitor with the US for economic and military power.

Make no mistake, friend, as economical power of the EU already far exceeds the American one. As it always has, really. With a population of 750 million, that's really not that much a suprise, too.

But I don't see any reasons to believe that the EU will one day strive to be a military superpower. They might one day form a united army, which I would very much hope for, but they will most likely never build out that army to equal the strength of the American one.
Why? Because they don't need it. And it would only weigh on the economy, anyway. There are different priorities here.

They are well organised and well educated, but will be hindered initially by the poorer Eastern European members. But, they do provide cheap labour,

That makes no sense.
The European economie won't grow because of the cheaper labour available in the Eastern states. The wealth might divide itself more equally, as the Eastern states gain in purchase power as the purchase power of the Western states decline, but as a complete picture the economy will not grow because of that.
And when the wealth has in the end finally been equally divided, only THEN will the European economy as a whole have the chance to move forward again. Yet, by then the labour in the Eastern states will naturally not be any cheaper than labour in the Western states, so that argument is null and void.

and if Turkey gets in, man power for the military.

Why would we need Turkey for that? 750 million people live here already. Or are the Turks more militaristic somehow, perhaps?

I think that all the Franco-German hatred is wishful thinking on America's part.

It is. There isn't a single sign of any historical, cultural or ethnical-based hatred between nations Western Europe anymore. The only friction that forms here is the ones that develop from present day politics, as they do everywhere. The friction between England and the mainland is a good example of that.

India will emerge next, as they have a large and well educated elite which works for peanuts. Vitally, they speak English and have elements of British institutions and democracy which gives them a huge advantage in business. They are already taking over the electronics industry. I find it scary that specialists with the equivalent of a PHD work on a janitor's salary. How do you compete with that? They will still have their problems with ethnic tensions, but money will become more important.

While the Indian people indeed have all requirement necessary to compete in present day capitalism, India will never rise to the level as the Western states do as long as their current Kast system excists. And money will never change that, as it never has. Remember: the Indian seggregation is not class-based, but socially based. You can get as rich as you want as a member of the lower kaste (and may of them are very rich - actualy, the 'elite' Kaste, the Brahmans, might very well be the poorest of all the kastes); you will never rise to the social status of the higher kastes.
Naturally, this forms a logical barrier to all kapitalistic growth.

China will slowly and steadily become a more efficient system and become an economic superpower similar to India, but with the advantage of more government control. Democracy will develop to a small extent until they realise that government control is not an advantage, and communism will quietly and gradually die.


First of all, present day China is about as communistic as my left shoe. Their govenment sytem is fascist (as in: national socialistic, not as in racist or militaristic) at best, but not communistic anymore by far.

Secondly, China already is an economical superpower, and will most likely become as powerfull as the USA in the near future. They might even reach the level of the EU within ten to fifteen years...


From then on, your post becomes quite irrational indeed.
 
Jebus said:
I think that all the Franco-German hatred is wishful thinking on America's part.
It is. There isn't a single sign of any historical, cultural or ethnical-based hatred between nations Western Europe anymore.
I think that's something of an exaggerration there Jebus. Whilst there is no widespread, consistant hatred, we are not the "happy family" that your statement makes us out to be (or am I just misinterpreting it?).
There is plenty of dislike in Britain towards, for example: The French, Germans (Although this is mostly remnants from WWII and will die out as the generations involved do), Italians, etc. Most of it is just low level stuff, similar to the insults that you get between regions, but it is there and shouldn't be ignored. Do you not have your equivalent of "An Englishman, an Irishman and a Scotsman ..." jokes?
Or are us Brits just a little backwards? I know this Island mentality we have isn't too good for us, but many seem not to be able to let it go. :(
The only friction that forms here is the ones that develop from present day politics, as they do everywhere. The friction between England and the mainland is a good example of that.
Britain dude, or the UK. That's like talking about the US as Texas, or Canada as Quebec (well, sort of, but I can't think of a better example).
 
What will happen if USA attacks North Korea? I think much more people will got killed, but I can't be sure since there are different opinions about North Korea army. But if it is really true that they have such big army there's even possibility of ww3 taking place. But as Nostradamus said the third world war will take place when a black man becomes pope. Was he right this time? :)
 
Big_T_UK said:
Jebus said:
I think that all the Franco-German hatred is wishful thinking on America's part.
It is. There isn't a single sign of any historical, cultural or ethnical-based hatred between nations Western Europe anymore.
I think that's something of an exaggerration there Jebus. Whilst there is no widespread, consistant hatred, we are not the "happy family" that your statement makes us out to be (or am I just misinterpreting it?).
There is plenty of dislike in Britain towards, for example: The French, Germans (Although this is mostly remnants from WWII and will die out as the generations involved do), Italians, etc. Most of it is just low level stuff, similar to the insults that you get between regions, but it is there and shouldn't be ignored. Do you not have your equivalent of "An Englishman, an Irishman and a Scotsman ..." jokes?
Or are us Brits just a little backwards? I know this Island mentality we have isn't too good for us, but many seem not to be able to let it go. :(

Well, that kind of jokes is really, really low-level, isn't it? Plus, I personally haven't heard one of those jokes (or at least a new one) for years now... So they must indeed be dying out. You still read some jokes about avaracious Scotsmen on the joke-calender, though...

*yawn* I should really go to bed now...
 
Jebus said:
Big_T_UK said:
Most of it is just low level stuff, similar to the insults that you get between regions, but it is there and shouldn't be ignored.

Well, that kind of jokes is really, really low-level, isn't it?
Didn't I just say that?

Just because it's casually said does not mean it's irrelevant. In fact, it may even make it worse as people are not even thinking about it. They maybe don't even think there's anything wrong with it.
 
Jebus said:
Make no mistake, friend, as economical power of the EU already far exceeds the American one. As it always has, really. With a population of 750 million, that's really not that much a suprise, too.

750 Million? That seems a tad much unless you guys have been really busy.

Economically? No, sorry.



By the way, I didn't mean to come off as smug in the earlier post, and I do know about the other factors in the wars. No offense meant. - Colt
 
I'm lost when it comes to China. I keep changing my opinions on them. First I think they're going to be a contender for the US soon, then I think, no they depend too much on foreign aid and investors and will collapse when all this dries up and goes elsewhere. Right now, I don't know who the next superpower will be, I don't care. Nations come and go, empires rise and fall, we all die, let's all hug and shed a tear over it and then call it a night after a few good drinks and stories.
 
Colt, the population graph is almost 2 years old and doesn't include any of the new countries, as does the graph on GDP which is 3 years old. A lot has changed since then dude.
 
Hmm... Didn't notice the dates. I would have thought an information page on the EU like that would be more up to date. Anyone have any newer figures to point me at? Apologies to Jebus if I'm wrong, was just going by the info on the EU site. - Colt
 
I had a quick look, all I found before I got bored was a page on internet subscription showing it as 456,791,700.

Have you been exaggerating again Jebus?

EDIT - This may be useful. Dated 2003, it gives the GDPs as $11,017bn for the EU compared to $11,000bn for the US. (Including the 10 additional countries that joined in 2004 in the 2003 figures)

So, our economy is slightly larger, but your GDP per capita is significantly bigger. This does skew the figures slightly, given that it is including in the total figures from countries that were not in the EU at the time - their economies may be slightly different now because of their EU membership.
 
Big_T_UK said:
Have you been exaggerating again Jebus?

Apparently... Which is strange, because I was quite certain of that 750 mlio...

Where the hell did I get that figure, then? *scratches head*

Yet, it's still almost twice the population of the US.
 
I have to agree, that the problem for Europe is centralized unity. To much history as independent nations and to much differences over national over regional priorities slows down unity. THe events of the last few years suggest that this notion of an EU identity is still a long way off. The Europeans have been moving in the right direction and they have a lot of reasons to be optimistic.

But a state is still a centralized administration that still has a monopoly of the use of coercive force within its boundaries. The EU still fails on both counts. Until they can do that, the EU is still a collection of seperate states.

That said, the notion of "states' rights" in the US runs a similar risk. Where the EU is generally working towards unity, the US is working towards division, and has been for the last 30 years since Reagan came up with the notion of "state's rights". The US has always had this problem- dual soverienty at both the state and federal levels. The states have also been regular competitors in trade, but those competitions are squashed by the federal government. More "state's rights' means more soverignty to the states, and inherently less centralization.

So yes, one reason for the rise in Europe could be division within the US.
 
welsh said:
So yes, one reason for the rise in Europe could be division within the US.


You mean rise in comparison to the USA or rise in its own merits?

Because the second option wouldn't make any sense.
 
Well we are talking about relative power. So a divided US and a united europe, give all things the same, would make for a stronger and more forceful EU on the international stage.

However, even a divided US could help EU gain more absolute strength. For example a US divided on domestic issues, or among states competiting for industry, might not be able to take advantage of international trends like a unified EU might.

The virtue of centralized authority means more autonomy but also more capacity to act. A divided US would be less capable, while a unified and strong centralized EU would be much more capable- especially as you folks are geographically more centralized.
 
(reads all the past post's)

Hm...Canada invaded for its resources? China becoming a superpower? Europe collapsing into bickering nation-states? Scarcity of resources?

Well people lets not worry about Fallout 3 coming out...in the near future well have "Fallout: Reality Sets In" in which were all characters following WW3...THE FUTURE IS NOW!

Sorry for joking around...well I for one would feel good if the Europeans met the level of the US economically. After everything they've been through it would not only be good for them, but also serve an example to the rest of the world where political, cultural, religious, and ethnic tensions get the better of people.

Sincerely,
The Vault Dweller
 
Sorry Welch - I misinterpreted what you meant by "rise". Stupid error on my part.

The_Vault_Dweller said:
Sorry for joking around...well I for one would feel good if the Europeans met the level of the US economically. After everything they've been through it would not only be good for them, but also serve an example to the rest of the world where political, cultural, religious, and ethnic tensions get the better of people.

Yes! We should try to finally meet the economical example of the United States Of America, and finally manage to feed all our people and move out of the slums we inhabit! The reign of poverty in the EU must come to an end!

/blatant sarcasm
 
Jebus said:
Sorry Welch - I misinterpreted what you meant by "rise". Stupid error on my part.

The_Vault_Dweller said:
Sorry for joking around...well I for one would feel good if the Europeans met the level of the US economically. After everything they've been through it would not only be good for them, but also serve an example to the rest of the world where political, cultural, religious, and ethnic tensions get the better of people.

Yes! We should try to finally meet the economical example of the United States Of America, and finally manage to feed all our people and move out of the slums we inhabit! The reign of poverty in the EU must come to an end!

/blatant sarcasm

Quite you or I'll snub your country out of existence on my National Geographic map with an eraser!

:twisted: ,
The Vault Dweller
 
The EU will be the first major competitor with the US for economic and military power.

hmm...
economic power: yes, the EU is on the best way
military power: why do you think the EU has any reason to be a "major competitor with the US" on this terrain?
The EU is not reaching for world leadership... and as i see it pure military power will loose it's weight, the enemys of the future are mainly no longer states you can bomb :o
(as "beloved" [ :roll: ] president Bush said: "the most important war in the 21st century will be the war on terror") [i do not agree with him very often...but this time i do]

If the EU becomes the next superpower - i don't know.
But if becomes it it will be a economic and financial one, not a military (in all propability)
 
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