Morgan_
Duckerz
Every part of this war has not gone the way I would think it would and apparently that extends to intel agencies. Makes me wonder how likely the unthinkable actually is.
Russia attacks Ukraine
- Thread starter DarkCorp
- Start date
Sn1p3r187
Carolinian Shaolin Monk
Possibly, if that's the case. This war has only showed us how much Russia really just....sucks...at a lot of shit. Ill equipped and ill prepared to fight a war. We mightve (As the general consensus of the western world) sorely overestimated them and got worked up for the right reasons but wrong view of it
Josan
Look, Ma! Two Heads!
Indeed. Russia has one thing and thing only - nukes. They've never really had much going for them in the ground. But the bluff and bluster worked well for them since WWII.
While we have certainly over-estimated, I am concerned about the long term reprecussions here.
I told my gf just yesterday, that in my very humble opinion - Ukraine must not only defeat Russia, and expulse them from their territory ENTIRELY (in order to avoid another attempt in a decade or two from now) Russia itself must be dismantled or at the very leased *profoundly* weakened.
While what we're seeing now are the scramblings of strong-men vying for what they hope to soon become a power vacuum, we must keep in mind that Russia is now facing *massive humiliation* and if we sit back, and let them fester for another 10, 20, 30, 40 years - what comes next might be not only prepared for another round - but much more focused and driven. COUGH-weimar-to-third-reich-COUGH
I told my gf just yesterday, that in my very humble opinion - Ukraine must not only defeat Russia, and expulse them from their territory ENTIRELY (in order to avoid another attempt in a decade or two from now) Russia itself must be dismantled or at the very leased *profoundly* weakened.
While what we're seeing now are the scramblings of strong-men vying for what they hope to soon become a power vacuum, we must keep in mind that Russia is now facing *massive humiliation* and if we sit back, and let them fester for another 10, 20, 30, 40 years - what comes next might be not only prepared for another round - but much more focused and driven. COUGH-weimar-to-third-reich-COUGH
Last edited:
ARTICLE 5 ARTICLE 5 ARTICLE 5
Sn1p3r187
Carolinian Shaolin Monk
Oh lord, i cant vouch for that. Plain and simple we knew exactly what happened after to Weimar Republic Germany directly afterwards. Now apply that to russia. Youd have a dictatorship with very similar views akin to them and the nukes to reinforce their view and possibly use them to enforce their opinion on eastern europe. Yeah, like i said earlier- Even if Russia wins, they will still lose. it's pretty much next to over for Russia. Im feeling before year end or start of new year theyll be in the start of their own civil war. Nobody wanted this war, not even other russians apart from their leader
Josan
Look, Ma! Two Heads!
I still remember the joy of the wall coming down. I was born in the 70s, grew up in the 80s and came of age in the 90s. We really hoped Russia would play nice... then a low level KGB kid cried when the USSR ended and wanted to bring it back. It's amazing what a fragile ego can do to the world.
When Putin is gone, no matter how he goes, I imagine it'll be a total shit show. Obviously so much of what comes out of Russia is filtered but for those geographically closer... are there any "moderates" waiting in the wings?
When Putin is gone, no matter how he goes, I imagine it'll be a total shit show. Obviously so much of what comes out of Russia is filtered but for those geographically closer... are there any "moderates" waiting in the wings?
Morgan_
Duckerz
Sn1p3r187
Carolinian Shaolin Monk
Nobody should actively want war
Morgan_
Duckerz
You're either with us or you're against us.
Not to sound too much of an armchair behavioralist - but I see already on Twitter, not only war-hungryness as always, but people trying to explain that you can't "trigger" Article 5.
Where would we - a bunch of milennials - get these sorts of mindsets? That articles or hostile actions are "triggered"?
Perhaps we - or many of us - or those of us who are into geopolitics - MAY have played too many old strategy computer games where events are _literally triggered_ exactly in that matter - where the game attempts to mimick the hard pragmatism of realpolitics - thus lending to a whole generation the mental image of world stage politics where events are - as said - "triggered" in very robotic and pragmatic manners; oh no, Russia bombed Poland, a NATO member - IT'S ON NOW! NO TURNING BACK!!!
Probably more complex than that, but I'm sure a whole generation of Hearts of Iron have had SOME contribution. We know that a subsection of everyone screaming "article 5" also are suckers for youtube map videos, and alternative history.
Sn1p3r187
Carolinian Shaolin Monk
Sounds like the case. Even as a gen z'er, even i know there's way more at play and shit isnt gonna hit the fan that quick over something like that. god, weird to think even my generation has hair triggers over an old man's war
A bunch of old men who should have faded away after the end of the cold war.
Just saw a news video about the missile strike in Poland.
Sn1p3r187
Carolinian Shaolin Monk
Yep. They shouldve. But they didnt, and now it comes full circle.
Thats another factor here - while a lot of brunch-libs approach this as "Putin has gone mad" without seeing the geopolitical backgrounds - a lot of this also *does* hinge on personal personalities - for example, one could argue that Russia has real concerns in Ukraine, the water supply to Crimea, the value of Crimea itself, the Black sea fleet - the Volgograd gap between Ukr and Kaz, that almost ended the USSR during WW2 - those are legitimate concerns
BUT
I fully believe that Putin - as a living, breathing human with hopes and dreams - was banking on seeing this through within his lifetime. He's a made man since the start, he's a KGB assent - he's been building Russia up - regardless of political exterior - his entire life.
I think he literally started feeling the years, and figured "fuck it - I'll do it now." and it was too soon, nobody was prepared, and now his strongmen are fighting over his spot, once he finally croaks.
(also, I have to add: legitimate concerns DO NOT equal the right to invade! I see people make this point, for all kinds of reasons - polls in Crimea showed more Russian speakers! Ukraine could pose a threat, if inducted into NATO! Russia is securing its flanks! Like... okay. So? Fuck 'em, that's not how you do things - also, there's no way all of Europe would suddenly just vouch for a massive land invasion of Russia, to "crush them once and for all", that was the "lebensraum" thing, and nobody wants that - never have I heard of that, in my entire life - so it's completely unrealistic!
Norway is _potentially_ at threat from Sweden. Almost completely encircled, and our capital lies only a few kilometres from the border. Are we now suddenly entitled to invade, and destroy and kill people? So many smoothbrains would scratch their chin, and go "I guess :0")
BUT
I fully believe that Putin - as a living, breathing human with hopes and dreams - was banking on seeing this through within his lifetime. He's a made man since the start, he's a KGB assent - he's been building Russia up - regardless of political exterior - his entire life.
I think he literally started feeling the years, and figured "fuck it - I'll do it now." and it was too soon, nobody was prepared, and now his strongmen are fighting over his spot, once he finally croaks.
(also, I have to add: legitimate concerns DO NOT equal the right to invade! I see people make this point, for all kinds of reasons - polls in Crimea showed more Russian speakers! Ukraine could pose a threat, if inducted into NATO! Russia is securing its flanks! Like... okay. So? Fuck 'em, that's not how you do things - also, there's no way all of Europe would suddenly just vouch for a massive land invasion of Russia, to "crush them once and for all", that was the "lebensraum" thing, and nobody wants that - never have I heard of that, in my entire life - so it's completely unrealistic!
Norway is _potentially_ at threat from Sweden. Almost completely encircled, and our capital lies only a few kilometres from the border. Are we now suddenly entitled to invade, and destroy and kill people? So many smoothbrains would scratch their chin, and go "I guess :0")
donperkan
Sonny, I Watched the Vault Bein' Built!
When giving someone a weapon make sure it has a label that says which end should be pointed towards the enemy
Has Russia tried a complete retreat while claiming victory yet?
eissa
Artanis "Altáriel" Nerwen Nos Finwe
But Shahed drones > Switchblade drones! /s
TruckerJay
First time out of the vault
Never bring a switchblade drone to a gun drone fight.
Mr puppet and Mr dipshit do not agree over the near miss in Poland