Russian-Ukrainian war

Atomkilla said:
Sander said:
(remember: these refugees by and large want to return to their country as soon as it's safe)
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Where did you get that?
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I think there have been studies about refugees and immigrants where refugees most of the time prefer to return home, if possible. Immigrants and refugees have usually very different reasons to leave their situation.

And you sincerely believe that interviews with handful of refugees compromises and represents the general stance of all of them?
That's, in a lack of a better term, ridiculous.
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I think you can also somewhat use the recent history as example. It seems that most refugees return to their homes when the situation improves. This was at least true for most of the conflicts we saw in the last 50 years where masses of refugees fleed their nations in war time.
http://www.rescue.org/frequently-asked-questions-about-refugees-and-resettlement

Most refugees and displaced persons return to their communities when peace and stability return to their country. When conditions in countries of origin remain unstable or there is a danger of persecution upon repatriation, some refugees are able to stay in a refugee settlement in another country. Unfortunately, many host countries are unable to accept refugees permanently. Resettlement in a third country, such as the United States, is the last option, and is available to only a tiny fraction of the world's refugees.

It is probably important to keep in mind the reasons why people flee. Do they flee because of military conflicts like wars or because they are persecuted. Wars and military conflicts are usually not very long and after they ended the civilians can eventually return to their homes maybe with the intention to rebuild them. If you're persecuted by the local population because of your religion though, it might be a lot more difficult. And I think the last one is probably the main problem we are dealing with right now.

What changes the situation is that we have also the typical high number of people fleeing economic instability and crises where people probably don't want to leave their homes but see no future for themselfs or their children in the long run. To get those people to return is only possible by actually improving their situation locally. And that is right now not really happening. I mean we are still exploiting most of those nations or at least see no benefit in supporting them - see Kosovo, or the Balkan as whole really.

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However in general I agree with you, when it comes to the Balkan states the line between immigrants and refugees is very blurry and unclear.
 
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Atomkilla said:
And you sincerely believe that interviews with handful of refugees compromises and represents the general stance of all of them?
That's, in a lack of a better term, ridiculous.
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Actually, we have no indications that this is not true and a lot of indications that it is true. Not only is this a line consistently repeated by Syrian refugees, it is also what has historically happened with war refugees (as recently as the second Iraq war).

What is ludicrous is disbelieving both what refugees say and what has historically happened -- especially so given that you have no evidence whatsoever that this time is fundamentally different.

It should be added that the idea that refugees are getting a "proper place to call home and some sort of income" is completely incongruous with the reality of the situation right now. Refugees are being housed in camps, are not allowed to work until they've been processed by the system which can take years, and they face discrimination when they are allowed to look for work. This is not actually all that great of a situation for a refugee to end up in.

Your anecdotal evidence is trumped by the statistical facts of the matter. According to this EurActive article from 2011, three quarters of the 3 million displaced during the Balkan wars have returned home -- that's not including the several hundred thousand who live in former Yugoslavia as refugees. All of the statistics I can find are consistent with that message, and it's consistent with what I know off the top of my head, too.
 
@Sander Goths did seeks shelter from the Roman empire when the Huns came, and Rome gave it to them. In return, they agreed to serve in the Roman army. They weren't particularly warlike before that, unless I'm mistaken.

Did you ever even hear what actual hate speech sounds like?

And the idea that most of them will go home after a while just doesn't sound plausible. As Atomkilla said, almost everyone who got away during the wars in Yugoslavia didn't come back, and people are still leaving. And the situation in Syria seems even harder than the one in Yugoslavia was. I think you'll find most of those three quarters that returned are people who were displaced within their own countries.
 
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LordAshur said:
@Sander Goths did seeks shelter from the Roman empire when the Huns came, and Rome gave it to them. In return, they agreed to serve in the Roman army. They weren't particularly warlike before that, unless I'm mistaken.
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I heard (can't remember from where) that Romans exploited them and they revolted afterward.
 
LordAshur said:
@Sander Goths did seeks shelter from the Roman empire when the Huns came, and Rome gave it to them. In return, they agreed to serve in the Roman army. They weren't particularly warlike before that, unless I'm mistaken.
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You are mistaken.

LordAshur said:
And the idea that most of them will go home after a while just doesn't sound plausible. As Atomkilla said, almost everyone who got away during the wars in Yugoslavia didn't come back, and people are still leaving. And the situation in Syria seems even harder than the one in Yugoslavia was. I think you'll find most of those three quarters that returned are people who were displaced within their own countries.
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Again: three quarters of those displaced have since returned, and that's not including those hundreds of thousands who are still internally displaced. That's simple fact. Your intuitive feelings and anecdotal evidence do not trump data.

Emigration does not stop when war is over, it is a constant factor in every country. That that is still happening doesn't mean much -- it's never going to stop, anywhere.
 
Sander said:
Your anecdotal evidence is trumped by the statistical facts of the matter. According to this EurActive article from 2011, three quarters of the 3 million displaced during the Balkan wars have returned home -- that's not including the several hundred thousand who live in former Yugoslavia as refugees. All of the statistics I can find are consistent with that message, and it's consistent with what I know off the top of my head, too.
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Your "facts" are wrong. Three quarters may have returned, only to leave again - at least those who could.
Check the basic population growth, or rather, decline of Serbia since 2006 - I don't know if you can find evidence before 2006, simply because Serbia didn't exist on its own, but the numbers show a trend of decline. Bosnia and Herzegovina, Macedonia and Croatia have a similar trend - in any case, their annual population growth is negative.
It has also been well documented that there is a huge annual emigration from this country, enough to warrant a drop in number of people living here, (I don't know about other ex-Yu countries, however), and most of the people who are leaving are people with degrees in various fields, looking for opportunities which this country cannot offer - main targets of interest being Germany, Norway and US.

Crni has a point that there is a difference between the motivations of a refugee and an immigrant - and he most likely knows it very well, given his family history.
You have a point that, for now, refugees are placed in uncomfortable camps and that their future outlook is bleak, but that doesn't change a bit what I've said - if Europe does accept these people as full-fledged citizens, regardless of how long the procedure takes, most of them will not return to Syria...or whatever remains of that country.
 
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Sander, please provide more information about conflicts between the Goths and their neighbors prior to the Hunnic invasions.
Note: I'm not debating you; I'm a major history nerd and in genuinely interested, as literature about the Goths is lacking until their involvement with Rome.
 
@Atomkilla: You are conflating war refugees with current economic migrants (these are not refugees and are not treated as such). The war refugees of the 1990s have largely returned, and we should expect exactly the same thing to happen with the Syrian refugees right now.

Whether there will then be subsequent emigration is another matter entirely. As you note, those who are leaving the former Yugoslavian countries now are those who have degrees and can easily find a job abroad -- which would be exactly the kind of migrant that Western countries say they do like to welcome. This is a normal fact of life as emigration happens constantly and everywhere -- and you will likely see a large percentage of those people eventually return too because, again, that's what migrants historically do.
@Beaushizzle: Just look at Wikipedia, it's a good enough primer.
 
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At this point I'm basically leaving this discussion, since it's leading to nowhere.

As much as we speculate, there is no telling how exactly will this war and everything affects end, so I don't see much point in going further with this.
You can have your date and assumptions, I can have my data, anecdotes and assumptions - both ways of reasoning I find entirely valid, but pretty much pointless, given that everything we have discussed so far will only have practical implications and reliable statistics to (dis)prove all that we have said in 10+ years. Maybe less, but whatever.

In the meantime, there are more important and productive things to do. So, call it agree to disagree. Cheers and carry on.
 
Another map of the attacks

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Bomb is KAB-500S, satellite guided bomb that is used against stationary targets. They were very recently "revived" and didn't finished state trials.

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Russia seems now to be using Syria as a weapon testing playground.

Plane is glorious Sukhoi SU-34.
 
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